Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds

by National Research Council

GLOBAL TRENDS 2030 is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories over the next 15 years. The world of 2030 will be radically transformed from our world today. By 2030, no country—whether the US, China, or any other large country—will be a hegemonic power. The empowerment of individuals and diffusion of power among states and from states to informal networks will have a dramatic impact, largely reversing the historic rise of the West since 1750, restoring Asia's weight in the global economy, and ushering in a new era of "democratization" at the international and domestic level. In addition to individual empowerment and the diffusion of state power, we believe that two other megatrends will shape our world out to 2030: demographic patterns, especially rapid aging; and growing resource demands which, in the cases of food and water, might lead to scarcities. These trends, which are virtually certain, exist today, but during the next 15-20 years they will gain much greater momentum. Underpinning the megatrends are tectonic shifts - critical changes to key features of our global environment that will affect how the world "works" In depth research, detailed modeling and a variety of analytical tools drawn from public, private and academic sources were employed in the production of this report.

Genres: Nonfiction, Science, Reference, Technology, Politics

166 pages, Paperback

First published December 1, 2012

About the author

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Reviews

[Olethros · Rating 3 out of 5]

-Juego incruento de previsiones entre “pida un deseo”, “pase la patata caliente” y “1+1=2”.-

Género. Ensayo.

Lo que nos cuenta. Quinta entrega del análisis periódico publicado por el National Intelligence Council, escrito aparentemente por un gran número de expertos en diferentes materias pero con el señor Burrows como máximo responsable de, y cito, “creación y diseminación de todos los productos del NIC”, que propone posibles escenarios mundiales en el 2030 y unos breves desarrollos de los mismos descritos desde la generalidad.

¿Quiere saber más de este libro, sin spoilers? Visite:

http://librosdeolethros.blogspot.com/...

[Rob · Rating 2 out of 5]

Neoliberals: the last economic determinists. They try to correlate factors such as literacy, population demographics with how the world will change. In their opinion youthful societies are more economically dynamic except if they are X or X etc. This is one example of their almost sillier assertions. A youthful society ie one in which fertility is high is one where women are usually oppressed. They are unpleasant places to live. The places with some of the highest fertility are quite frankly shithouse places to live like Afghanistan and Pakistan. Their lack of dynamism may last for decades. A youthful population is a society that is stuck in crappy patriarchal relations. It may break out of this mess but it needs a circuit breaker.
There are other silly assertions such as once societies get past the $14000 mark in average income they can become democratic and more susceptible to authoritarianism. If this is the sort of nonsense that passes for geopolitical analysis in world governing bodies God help us all.

[Emmanuel · Rating 5 out of 5]

Great information and analysis throughout 2030

Accurate statements. Science application validated. Simple language used.

This book comes to give us a guide on how world is and will move in multiple perspectives and life areas.

[Matt Heavner · Rating 3 out of 5]

A thought provoking, very broad/big picture look at "what could the world possibly look like in 2030?" At times this seemed a bit repetitive in discussing various foreign powers, but overall, it was interesting and though provoking. There are four "alternative worlds" to think about what 2030 might look like, ranging from the "most optimistic that is still realistic" ("fusion") to "the most pessimistic that is still realistic ("Stalled engine"). The 4 are

1) Fusion -- "best case"
2) Stalled Engine -- "countries become more nationalistic/inward focused, and risk of conflict between states increases"
3) Gini out of the bottle -- "economic disparities increase, leading to class warfare"
4) nonstate world -- "weak countries"

[Sam Motes · Rating 3 out of 5]

Looks at global trends including aging demographics, technology advancements, global warming, resources constraints, population increases, the dimension centrality of the US, and other trends to project out what the world will be like in 2030. Some of the examined probable futures are optimistic but some are very scary as well.

[Abdulrahman Alzein]

interesting book

[Israel Bimpe · Rating 4 out of 5]

Gives a clear understanding of how the world will change in 2030 and all factors involved...