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Redback Quarterly #3
Dog Days: Australia After the Boom
A blueprint for the nation after the boom. Australians have just lived through a period of exceptional prosperity, but, says influential economist Ross Garnaut, the Dog Days are on their way. Are we ready for the challenges ahead? In Dog Days , Garnaut explains how we got here, what we can expect next and the tough choices we need to make to survive the new economic conditions. Are we clever enough - and our leaders courageous enough - to change what needs to be changed and preserve a fair and prosperous Australia? This is a book about the future by a leading adviser to government and business, someone with a proven record of seeing where the nation is going. Both forecast and analysis, it heralds a new era for Australia after the boom. 'a must-read for anyone concerned with the economic and social future of Australia'-Bob Hawke 'a brilliant guide to the future of the Australian economy'-Max Corden 'the nation's most prophetic economist'-Ross Gittins Ross Garnaut is one of Australia's leading economists. He is Vice-Chancellor's Fellow and Professorial Research Fellow in Economics at the University of Melbourne and Distinguished Professor of Economics at the Australian National University. He was a key economic adviser to the reforming Hawke government. Garnaut has held senior roles in government and business, including as Australian Ambassador to China and author of the Garnaut Climate Change Review.
302 pages, Paperback
First published November 15, 2013
15 people are currently reading
142 people want to read
About the author
Ross Garnaut
67 books17 followersRoss Garnaut is Professorial Research Fellow in Economics at the University of Melbourne. In 2008, he produced the Garnaut Climate Change Review for the Australian government. He is the author of many books, including the bestselling Dog Days (2013).
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March 12, 2016Ross Garnaut has provide an interesting and insightful look at why Australia is in the funk it's in now, and why we keep turfing out our political leaders. We're way too comfortable, complacent and a tad arrogant..we missed the bullet of the GFC or so we were told.
For those of us who are in despair at the rampant rent-seeking, selfish and dysfunctional way our country seems to be running, perhaps its time we looked at ourselves and acted for the wider good rather than protecting our own piece of the pie. Worth reading if you want to face reality.
For those of us who are in despair at the rampant rent-seeking, selfish and dysfunctional way our country seems to be running, perhaps its time we looked at ourselves and acted for the wider good rather than protecting our own piece of the pie. Worth reading if you want to face reality.
April 27, 2014
This book is possibly the most soporific I have ever read. Forget the hot milk before bedtime - a couple of pages of this will send you off to dreamland in no time.
Having said that, I do respect what Ross Garnaut has to say in this book. He warns that "Australians now have to live with the hangover from the biggest housing spending and resources booms in our boom and bust cluttered history. So far our response has been to take another drink."
In case you feel you missed it, Garnaut says ordinary Australians were earning more than they ever had in 2011. But the boom time (2002-2011) has ended, says Garnaut, because China's new economic model involves moderately lower rates of growth and markedly less energy and metals intensive growth, together with less dependance on coal as an energy source.
In fact, China is now investing more than any other country in all of the low-emissions sources of electricity: hydro, wind, nuclear, solar and bio-mass. It expects to succeed Germany as the world's largest producer of solar energy over the next year. China has given electrified intra-urban and intercity rail high priority in planning and has promoted the fully electric car through consumer and producer subsidies.
But back at home, Garnaut says the conventional wisdom in the business community and much of the media is a return to comfortable times is around the corner as "confidence" returns with the end of the minority federal government and the blossoming of resources exports from on.
Garnaut pooh-poohs this notion, saying that while Australians may continue to expect higher incomes, more services and lower taxes our economy's capacity to deliver these things to the average Australian is declining. He calls for an economic reform program to be brought about by our political leaders in the public interest, to bring about a large increase in exports from our services, manufacturing and agricultural industries at the same time as getting as much value as possible from resources exports.
He particularly wants to see a dramatic fall in the real exchange rate and spending, without doing major damage to employment, our living standards and the quality of our society. An analysis of the rights and wrongs of how he thinks this should be done I leave to better minds than mine. I had enough trouble staying awake reading it.
But what I did find interesting was his concern that there are reasons to be doubtful that our society will choose a public interest response to the problems that lie ahead. He is concerned that the moral and social constraints that formerly underpinned capitalism are disappearing and groups are now less inhibited about campaigning overtly for their private interests.
For a properly functioning democratic capitalism, he talks about the need for people to accept personally unsatisfactory outcomes from political processes; to make possible a system of general taxation that can support a functioning state; to have leaders who forgo opportunities to enrich themselves through their office and to have limits on the use of corporate wealth to exercise power over policy. (Hmmm.)
He is also concerned about the contributions being made to policy discussions by so-called independent economists employed directly by, or as consultants to business. Moreover, the rise of 24/7 news coverage has seen analysis of long term policy issues neglected.
How will we know if Garnaut's concerns about the future economy are coming to pass because of inaction by government? He has conveniently given us a checklist. The signs to watch for are: unemployment rates drift higher; no signs of investment in trade-exposed industries; increased domestic spending without an improvement in competitiveness; and growing indebtedness to foreigners. Watch this space!
Having said that, I do respect what Ross Garnaut has to say in this book. He warns that "Australians now have to live with the hangover from the biggest housing spending and resources booms in our boom and bust cluttered history. So far our response has been to take another drink."
In case you feel you missed it, Garnaut says ordinary Australians were earning more than they ever had in 2011. But the boom time (2002-2011) has ended, says Garnaut, because China's new economic model involves moderately lower rates of growth and markedly less energy and metals intensive growth, together with less dependance on coal as an energy source.
In fact, China is now investing more than any other country in all of the low-emissions sources of electricity: hydro, wind, nuclear, solar and bio-mass. It expects to succeed Germany as the world's largest producer of solar energy over the next year. China has given electrified intra-urban and intercity rail high priority in planning and has promoted the fully electric car through consumer and producer subsidies.
But back at home, Garnaut says the conventional wisdom in the business community and much of the media is a return to comfortable times is around the corner as "confidence" returns with the end of the minority federal government and the blossoming of resources exports from on.
Garnaut pooh-poohs this notion, saying that while Australians may continue to expect higher incomes, more services and lower taxes our economy's capacity to deliver these things to the average Australian is declining. He calls for an economic reform program to be brought about by our political leaders in the public interest, to bring about a large increase in exports from our services, manufacturing and agricultural industries at the same time as getting as much value as possible from resources exports.
He particularly wants to see a dramatic fall in the real exchange rate and spending, without doing major damage to employment, our living standards and the quality of our society. An analysis of the rights and wrongs of how he thinks this should be done I leave to better minds than mine. I had enough trouble staying awake reading it.
But what I did find interesting was his concern that there are reasons to be doubtful that our society will choose a public interest response to the problems that lie ahead. He is concerned that the moral and social constraints that formerly underpinned capitalism are disappearing and groups are now less inhibited about campaigning overtly for their private interests.
For a properly functioning democratic capitalism, he talks about the need for people to accept personally unsatisfactory outcomes from political processes; to make possible a system of general taxation that can support a functioning state; to have leaders who forgo opportunities to enrich themselves through their office and to have limits on the use of corporate wealth to exercise power over policy. (Hmmm.)
He is also concerned about the contributions being made to policy discussions by so-called independent economists employed directly by, or as consultants to business. Moreover, the rise of 24/7 news coverage has seen analysis of long term policy issues neglected.
How will we know if Garnaut's concerns about the future economy are coming to pass because of inaction by government? He has conveniently given us a checklist. The signs to watch for are: unemployment rates drift higher; no signs of investment in trade-exposed industries; increased domestic spending without an improvement in competitiveness; and growing indebtedness to foreigners. Watch this space!
March 23, 2016
Garnaut does not paint a rosy future for Australia (or the world) unless major reforms occur. He articulates the problems and outlines a series of all encompassing solutions covering the structure of our Governmental system, taxation, actions on climate, institutional reform and the need for courage in leadership who can articulate the problems and enact the necessary changes. Written in 2013 at the start of the Abbott Government's term, Garnaut is already able to say, "I told you so".
The second half of the book is the crux for the future while the first half reviews why there is a problem caused by the great Australian complacency.
The second half of the book is the crux for the future while the first half reviews why there is a problem caused by the great Australian complacency.
July 7, 2014
Inspired to finish this by watching Garnaut on "Q and A" last night. He makes a lot of sense and so does this book. Sadly I think that his negative predictions look far more likely than the positive possibilities he outlined if we were to change our policy directions. His comments about the extreme bias of the Murdoch media and its damage to policy making in Australia were interesting. Definitely worth a read.
October 11, 2014
Prof Garnaud makes a very dry subject interesting and useful for understanding broad economic forces currently in play in Australia. He is a very good communicator. It was written almost exactly a year ago and the broad predictions, principles and options will be relevant for some time to come. Some of his examples are very short-term, but with insufficient detail for non-Australians to understand; the book may well age quickly in these areas.
March 6, 2016
Fantastic insight from a well respected Australian academic and experienced public servant as to the challenges facing Australia after the end of the mining boom. Written in late 2013 and now more urgent and prescient given the recent significant decline in iron ore and oil prices - and essentially reflected in the December 2014 Federal Government MYEFO statement.
June 17, 2023
Reading this about 7 to 8 years after it was written. Interesting to note how things have gone the way the book mentioned. Also fascinating to see that while the author mentions the issues we have in Australia, he also presented some good solutions to solve the issues or at least reduce the fall out.
May 11, 2014
first half a bit dry, second half should be compulsory reading before voting.
May 2, 2017
Quite repetitive, especially during the first half. The second half of the book is more interesting and easier to digest. Written at a fairly scholarly level, although the acknowledgements indicates he wrote it for the average person so I've marked it down a star. Worth a read just to see how closely governments over the past 4 decades or so have followed Garnaut's advice and predictions.
Displaying 1 - 9 of 9 reviews