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Forex For Beginners is the prequel to my first two books, A Three Dimensional Approach to Forex Trading, and A Complete Guide to Volume Price Analysis. It is your primer to the world of forex. It has been written to lay the foundations and provide the framework for getting started in the world of forex, in what I believe is the correct way. My other books then build on what you will learn here, to further develop your trading skills and knowledge.
Applying what you learnWhat I try to do in all my books, is to show you how to apply that knowledge to help you become a more confident trader. After all, learning is all well and good, but if we are not taught how to apply that knowledge in a practical way, then it is of little use. It is the application of knowledge that empowers, and this is what I have tried to do here, and in my online training rooms, and all my books.
It's all about riskThere are of course many books about forex trading. What is different about this book, is the focus on those aspects of trading which I believe are fundamental. After all, there are only two questions we need to answer when considering a position in the market:-
What is the risk on this trade - high, medium or low? What is the financial risk on this trade? The first is the hardest question to answer, and the book will explain in detail the analysis and approach to use, in order to answer this question with confidence. The second question is more straightforward and is answered provided you have an understanding of risk, money management and position sizing in relation to your trading capital. Again, this is covered in detail in the book. As the tag line on the front cover says 'What you need to know to get started, and everything in between' which really sums up what you will learn. This book is for youThe book explains everything, from the pure mechanics to the trading methodology that I advocate, and which I have used in all my own trading and investing for over 17 years. Forex For Beginners is also dedicated to all those traders who have asked me to write such an introduction, based on my knowledge and my methodology. This book is for you.
238 pages, Kindle Edition
First published October 29, 2013
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While technical analysis focuses on price charts and patterns, fundamental analysis delves into the "why" behind market movements. It is the study of economic, social, and political forces that influence currency values.
For any serious trader, understanding the role of fundamental analysis is not just a choice—it's a necessity for making informed, long-term decisions. This article will explain what fundamental analysis is and why it's a critical component of a comprehensive trading strategy.
Fundamental analysis in forex trading involves assessing the strength and stability of a country's economy to determine the future value of its currency. The core principle is simple: a strong, growing economy with low inflation and stable politics will attract foreign investment, increasing the demand for its currency. Conversely, a weak or unstable economy will see its currency lose value.
Think of it this way: a currency is a reflection of its nation's economic health. Fundamental analysts act like economic detectives, gathering clues from various sources to predict how a currency might perform.
A fundamental analyst's toolkit is composed of a variety of economic reports and data releases. Here are some of the most influential indicators:
Central bank interest rates are arguably the most powerful driver of currency values. Higher interest rates make a country's currency more attractive to foreign investors because they can earn a higher return on their savings and investments. When a central bank, like the U.S. Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank, raises or lowers its interest rate, it can cause significant and immediate shifts in the forex market. Traders pay close attention to central bank meetings and announcements for clues about future rate changes.
GDP measures the total value of all goods and services produced in a country. It is the broadest and most important indicator of a country’s economic health. A high or rising GDP indicates a strong economy, which generally supports a stronger currency.
Traders look at GDP reports to gauge economic growth and compare it across different countries to determine which currency might appreciate.
Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and subsequently, the purchasing power of a currency is falling. Central banks typically aim to keep inflation within a target range.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures changes in the price of a basket of consumer goods and services.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers. High or unexpected inflation can lead a central bank to raise interest rates to cool down the economy, which, as mentioned, can boost a currency's value.
Employment data, such as non-farm payrolls (NFP) in the U.S., provides a crucial snapshot of a country’s labor market health. Strong employment numbers indicate a healthy economy, which can lead to higher consumer spending and, potentially, rising interest rates. Bad employment numbers can signal an economic slowdown. Because of this, these reports often cause a significant amount of volatility in the market.
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Beyond purely economic numbers, political stability, government policy, and geopolitical events can have a profound impact on a currency's value. A country with a stable political environment and sound economic policies is generally seen as a safer place to invest, which attracts capital and supports its currency. Conversely, political turmoil, elections, or international conflicts can cause a currency to depreciate as investors flee to safer assets.
Fundamental analysis is the bedrock of long-term trading strategy. It moves you beyond a simple prediction of where a price might go and helps you understand why it is moving. By paying attention to central bank policies, economic indicators, and political events, you can develop a macro-level perspective that informs and validates your trading decisions.
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