The Insurgents: David Petraeus and the plot to change the American way of war by Fred Kaplan. Fred M. Kaplan (b. 1954) is an American author and Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist. His weekly "War Stories" column for Slate magazine covers international relations and U.S. foreign policy. Fred Kaplan’s Insurgents thesis, in my opinion, is that Petraeus and his fellow insurgents made the US military more adaptive to the conflicts of the modern era, but they also created the tools, and made it more tempting, for political leaders to wade into wars that they would be wise to avoid. Kaplan phenomenally illustrates how counter-insurgency doctrine won the “Hearts and Minds” of American political leaders as the way to achieve the desired end state for Iraq and Afghanistan, while not realizing the key component, that if host-nation government isn’t strong enough or willing to enforce its principles for COIN doctrine to be successful, the idea of a counter-insurgency strategy is folly.
Summary:
The Insurgents is the inside story of the small group of soldier-scholars, led by General David Petraeus, who plotted to revolutionize one of the largest, oldest, and most hidebound institutions - the United States military. Their aim was to build a new Army that could fight the new kind of war in the post-Cold War age: not massive wars on vast battlefields, but small wars - in cities and villages, against insurgents and terrorists. These would be wars not only of fighting, but of "nation building" -often not of necessity but of choice. Insurgents lays out their pathway to implementation, the effects of COIN in practice, and their ineffective ability to change the American way of war.
Analysis:
To analyze the Insurgents, I will divide the book into three sections: First, the failures of Iraq that led to political leaders need for a new strategy. Second, COIN in practice as General Petraeus takes command in Iraq. Finally, I will analyze the sections written on the failure of COIN in Afghanistan.
Following the immediate success of the initial push into Iraq, American political leaders were left wondering what to do next. LTG Ricardo Sanchez was struggling as the commander to establish phase IV of the Iraqi Freedom War, which was not planned prior to the invasion of Iraq. As the war dove into a full-scale insurgency, many leaders, both militarily and politically, were unsure what course of action to take. Military leadership changed from Sanchez to General George Casey, which did little to quell the violence that was deteriorating Iraq. In pockets of Iraq, such as Mosel, where then Major General David H. Petraeus’ 101st Airborne Division owned operations, counter insurgency tactics where finding some semblance of success. Kaplan perfectly illustrates how the failure throughout the rest of country set the political stage for a new American way of war to take hold.
As the country asked for answers on Iraq, there was a need for progress and COIN provided a glimmer of hope. Kaplan successfully explains how General Petraeus acted on all the right opportunities to make counter insurgency doctrine an option for political leaders in Washington. While many new philosophies (Hearts and Minds, & Clear, Hold, Build) were being haphazardly used in Iraq, Petraeus continued to press COIN at Fort Leavenworth, KS. After continued failure, the loss of the majority in Congress, George W. Bush was forced to make changes (Sec. Rumsfeld resigned and GEN. Casey was removed). General Petraeus was inserted as commander in Iraq and the surge was initiated utilizing COIN as the way forward. Much success was found in Iraq, lead to the eventual implementation of COIN in Afghanistan as well. Kaplan effectively details how the strategy was partially successful in Iraq, but did not fit in Afghanistan.
Unlike Iraq, there were no key victories for COIN. Neither Generals McChrystal nor Petraeus were able to achieve key outputs. Kaplan argues, which I whole-heartedly agree, that counter insurgency is not A + B + C = D. It is A x B x C = D. If any of the inputs are zero, counter-insurgency does not work. In the case of Afghanistan, the political leadership was the value of zero. It is this revelation, which I assume was well known to those executing the mission, that led to the argument that COIN is, “Folly” if the host-nation government isn’t strong enough or willing to enforce its principles.
Summary:
Kaplan states that unless the political leadership’s goals are in line with that of the COIN force, the doctrine will not be successful. Furthermore, the American political leadership and population do not have the patience to deal with a war that is long or costly, therefore COIN will never be accepted as a prominent way of war. Instead, COIN should be used a tool to fight war during the short-term, but never used as a way to build host-nation forces. The COIN strategists made the American military more adept at fighting this kind of war, but they didn’t succeed at making this kind of war acceptable (p. 365) Overall, Kaplan phenomenally illustrates how counter-insurgency doctrine won the “Hearts and Minds” of American political leaders as the way to achieve the desired end state for Iraq and Afghanistan, while not realizing the key component, that if host-nation government isn’t strong enough or willing to enforce its principles for COIN doctrine to be successful, the idea of a counter-insurgency strategy is folly.