Countdown: The Blinding Future of Nuclear Weapons

by Sarah Scoles

For fans of Oppenheimer, a riveting investigation into the modern nuclear weapons landscape and its future.

The average person thinks about nuclear weapons less than they did during the mid-20th century. Yet we live in a time when nuclear culture is as important as it was the Cold War, and some experts say we could be closer to a nuclear catastrophe now than we were at the height of that conflict. Conversations surrounding weapons of mass destruction generally happen in past or future tense. In  Countdown , science journalist Sarah Scoles uncovers the shocking reality of our present-tense nuclear age.  

Drawing from years of on-the-ground reporting at the nation's nuclear labs, Scoles confronts the comforting idea that having nuclear weapons keeps us safe, through the threat of "mutually-assured destruction." She deftly lays out the current nuclear apparatus in the United States, taking readers beyond the news headlines and policy-speak to reveal how far nuclear-weapons technology has come, who the true decision-makers and gatekeepers are, and how the current generation of nuclear weapons scientists have come to think about WMDs and a society that has the power to use them. 

Through a sharp, surprising and undoubtedly urgent narrative, Scoles brings us out of the Cold War and into the present, opening readers' eyes to the true nature of nuclear weapons while also giving us the needed context to understand the magnitude of our abilities, for now and for the future. 

 

Genres: Science, Nonfiction, Politics, Technology, History, Social, Engineering

272 pages, Hardcover

Published February 6, 2024

About the author

Sarah Scoles is a Colorado-based science journalist, a contributing writer at Popular Science, and a senior contributor at Undark. Her work has appeared in publications like the New York Times, Wired, Scientific American, and others. She is also the author of the books ​Making Contact: Jill Tarter and the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, They Are Already Here: UFO Culture and Why We See Saucers, and Astronomical Mindfulness. Her forthcoming book is called Countdown: The Blinding Future of Nuclear Weapons. Her articles have won the American Geophysical Union's David Perlman Award for Excellence in Science Writing (2021) and the American Astronomical Society Solar Physics Division's Popular Media Award (2019, 2020).

Previously, she was an associate editor at Astronomy and a public education officer at the National Radio Astronomy Observatory in Green Bank, West Virginia.

Reviews

[Samantha · Rating 4 out of 5]

I am fascinated by all things nuclear, and this book did not disappoint. It was not quite was I was expecting, but it delved deeply into our current world of nuclear weapons. The plethora of interviews conducted for each chapter represented another layer on this complex situation. It certainly gave me with plenty to think (and even possibly worry) about as we continue to move forward in an uncertain world.

[Phil · Rating 2 out of 5]

I was hoping for a more technical look into the current state of our nuclear arsenal but instead got a rather dull survey of people working in the various national labs. I wanted more science and less personality. Not what I was expecting.

[Joshua Lawrence · Rating 1 out of 5]

A completely uninteresting piece about nuclear weapons devoid of any sort of analysis about what it costs beyond “ya, isn’t it weird ya know, maybe BOTH sides are a little right here??”

[Peter Tillman]

WSJ's 10 Best list, 2024: https://www.wsj.com/arts-culture/book...
(Paywalled. As always, I'm happy to email a copy to non-subscribers)
"In a work of old-fashioned reporting, Sarah Scoles sheds light on the state of America’s nuclear-weapons program and the motivations of the men and women who maintain and develop it. Hardly Dr. Strangelove types, the sober-minded civil servants she interviews understand the risks and responsibilities better than anyone. They worry about two threats: proliferation abroad and falling scientific educational standards at home."

[David Kennedy · Rating 3 out of 5]

A thought provoking book, but if the author reads this let's skip the SJW comments in the future?

I dont think the author understands technology/computers and thinks "codes" are some sort of catch-all for things she doesnt grasp?

“Now, we’ve got a new generation of designers coming up. The codes are their test site.”
Sarah Scoles. Countdown (p. 58). Kindle Edition.

"Neely, though, thinks that kind of pause is the right move: it’s time to slow down and focus on the codes themselves, not the processors. “Let’s not throw yet another exotic computer at us for a while, so that we can think like mathematicians more than computer scientists,” he says.
Sarah Scoles. Countdown (p. 59). Kindle Edition.

My background is IT, I dont understand how she uses "codes" in the book? Is she referring to computer programs? access codes? some sort of 'codebook' used to store secret data??

Lastly, As a non-American it is interesting reading these types of books.. Throughout the book she covers the "Evil USSR" and its plans of global domination, yet drops gems like this:

"That once happened, for instance, above Thule Air Force Base in Greenland, the United States’ northernmost outpost."
Sarah Scoles. Countdown (p. 227). Kindle Edition.

Does the "USSR" have a base there too? How many bases does the "USSR" have? How many does America have?

Lets' not pretend the US did not do many of the things it claims the USSR did.

It is beyond time Americans acknowledged that the reason they are in a nuclear standoff for so long is because of decisions their leaders make/made?

The NFU (No First Use) agreement is sitting there waiting for the the US to join others who have signed it...

In this book, the author covers the multiple times the US has literally slid along the lines of existing policy.

"enhancing" existing weapons as that doesn't violate the "no developing new weapons" agreement? In the letter of the policy, yes, in the spirit, no.

Testing "near" nuclear explosions - Yes, that is what they had in mind when the documents were written, find ways to do what you want, and claim compliance as well?

[skip thurnauer · Rating 3 out of 5]

“America’s nuclear arsenal is old: that’s a fact. Americas’s nuclear arsenal is too old and needs significant modernization: about that, reasonable people can, and definitely do, disagree.” Sarah Scoles is a science writer who is well versed in America’s nuclear arms past, present, and future. She interviews scores of people involved in testing and maintaining the country’s nuclear weapons. “My impression is the nuclear scientists have been really thoughtful about what the implications of their work are.” Much of the focus is on stewardship and the “always, never” mentality that is the essence of much of their work - always be prepared with safe and effective weapons and never deploy them. The author endeavored to explore both sides of the argument, for and against upgrading our nuclear weapons. She quotes the actor Cillian Murphy who played Oppenheimer in the movie by that name, “I’m interested in the man and what [inventing the atomic bomb] does to the individual. The mechanics of it, that’s really not for me - I don’t have the intellectual capabilities to understand them, but these contrary characters are fascinating… People identify with that, because we all walk around with these contradictory ideas coexisting in our heads.” I identify fully with Murthy’s assessment. Much of the science and physics is beyond my high school understanding. Scoles tells the scientists’ stories in breif biographical portraits. Some landed in the field by intent and others by happenstance. Some are working on making bombs or making them safer and more reliable and others are working on monitoring global nuclear activity. I was surprised by the number of women in key management positions as the stereotypical physicist is usually male. The world is a long way from eliminating nuclear weapons, but I’m glad we have a dedicated group of scientists assuring “always, never” as a foundation to America’s nuclear arsenal.

[Dale Dewitt · Rating 5 out of 5]

A thoughtful and detailed journey into the Nuclear Complex that america has created. Ms. Scoles focuses on the people who work both for and against the nuclear weapons of our nation and by humanizing their pursuits really creates an overall gray area that makes one question our own positions on nuclear weapons. With unprecedented access to the national laboratory system she weaves an intimate portrait of those she interviews while still explaining the science and an easy to read and inviting way. You don’t need to have a PH.d in nuclear physics to appreciate the lives of those who spend their days thinking about Armageddon.

I received and ARC from Netgalley and appreciate being able to provide feedback on this amazing book.

[Frankie Gonzales · Rating 4 out of 5]

Read this for a book club. A very interesting topic for me, the book explores the nuclear weapons industry with a heavy focus on the national labs all surrounding the question of nuclear deterrence and does it work. I learned an immense amount about the national labs and their structure and missions, filled in some gaps and pondered a lot on deterrence. The author I think has a bias and I think that speed through heavily at times but I also think she comes to a conclusion that many of the people she interviewed in the book come to on the inevitability of the current nuclear deterrence posture. Not a lot of solutions offered but maybe not the point of the book. Good book, recommend to folks who work in the nuclear weapons industry.

[Fred Rose · Rating 3 out of 5]

So, so many acronyms. I guess it's unavoidable when dealing with government agencies. Certainly not the most compelling book but it's a good series of articles really on the current state of the whole nuclear weapon ecosystem. It's a lot bigger than I thought, maybe just in terms of scale. All these agencies make sense in terms of manufacturing parts, detecting potential explosions around the world, etc. If you're interested it is certainly worth skimming and reading sections. A strong focus on the human element. Some of these agencies got whacked by DOGE, but I am not sure of the current status. They may have been put back in place.

[Monica · Rating 3 out of 5]

Overall I would probably have given this a 3.5 of possible. It is a solid little book covering the current state of nuclear weapons in the US, current efforts to modernize and upgrade those weapons, and ideas about nuclear deterrence, non-proliferation, and disarmament.

There are a number of interviews with scientists working in national labs handling nuclear weapons and research, as well as with activists from outside of those labs.

This isn't a book on technical aspects of nuclear armaments, or arguments for modernizing them. It is more about social or even philosophical views on those topics.

Quite interesting, especially for somebody not well-versed in current nuclear policies.

[John Doe · Rating 4 out of 5]

Not too technical, and is more of persona/interview/biography recap collection. The book not-surprisingly is written and talks of US viewpoints, activities and stories rather than having a international/global look at things. The topic of Russia post 2022 is quite slim and doesn't delve in concrete details or in depth policy/operational discussions.

[Scott Martin · Rating 3 out of 5]

(3.5 stars) A solid, if not spectacular overview of the current nuclear labs that oversee and develop the advances in the US nuclear arsenal. A lot of personal stories and a number of interesting developments. Can’t quite get to everything, but then again, there is a lot that shouldn’t be in a book like this. Best for those who have some understanding of the nuclear enterprise .

[Jon · Rating 3 out of 5]

Giving this a 3-star because I don’t think I fully understood author’s intent before reading. The book was basically an aggregation of research of a bunch of people working within the US nuclear labs. While this gleaned some insight, it was a little too technical / redundant at times. Not fully for me, even though did pick up some nuggets along the way.

[Aaron · Rating 3 out of 5]

Some key messages from this book:
Nuclear weapons are as relevant—and dangerous—as ever today.
The U.S. is modernizing its arsenal, which may increase global risks.
People working in the field aren’t all hawks or doves—many just want safety.
The threat of nuclear catastrophe is still very real, not just history.
Living with nukes means tough choices, and the future remains uncertain.

[Jc · Rating 2 out of 5]

This read like an ethnography of LANL workers more than anything. There was so much potential to cover a variety of interesting cultural and philosophical topics about nukes but instead it focused on the scientist's opinions about their work.

[Brooks · Rating 5 out of 5]

Important topic to contemplate. Highly recommended!

[Dale · Rating 3 out of 5]

Author highlights the dangers of nuclear weapons. Not just in war but also in the production and storage of these volatile weapons.

[Timothy · Rating 4 out of 5]

It was OK. Some chapters dragged. I learned new things, though, so that's the whole point, isn't it? It's a reassuring book in the nuclear age.

[Zyoangela · Rating 3 out of 5]

Was expecting something more systematic and strategic with deeper thinking on the purpose of nuclear weapons, but instead reading through a random collection of people interviews…

[Galen · Rating 3 out of 5]

reasonable overview, good info, about as expected without much thematic/narrative arc which is fine

[James Redner · Rating 3 out of 5]

Count Down didn't meet my expectations. While her use of sarcasm and tone might appeal to some, it overshadowed the serious exploration of technology and stockpile issues I was hoping for. It was a battle to finish it. I'd recommend Nuclear Age from Anne Jacobson if you really want to knock (scare) your socks off.

[Scott Ransom · Rating 4 out of 5]

A quite "light" read about many different aspects of stockpile stewardship. It mostly focuses on the people doing that work, as well as work in related fields such as nuclear monitoring. Because it is quite people-focused, it has very few technical details about what stockpile stewardship will entail and why exactly it is needed (although much of that is certainly classified). You probably won't get much out of this if you already know the basics of stockpile stewardship (I suspect most Americans have no idea what that even means), but it is an interesting and quick read, nonetheless.

[Jon Bradley · Rating 4 out of 5]

I read this as an ebook checked out from the local library. This book addresses some of the fundamental questions and issues of "stockpile stewardship", or managing the USA's aging inventory of nuclear weapons in the early 2020's, thirty years after the cessation of nuclear testing. Questions such as: how does the country verify these aging devices are safe and will still work as intended, when they can't be tested? How can existing weapons be modified, or new ones designed and fielded, when it's not possible to test fire them to verify they work? As the people who last designed and test fired nuclear weapons retire and die off, how can new generations of scientists and engineers be recruited to work on these devices? The author takes on these questions and many others through interviews with personnel at the country's sprawling complex of weapons labs and sites: Los Alamos, Lawrence Livermore, Sandia, Savannah River... I found the book to be thought provoking, and a little unsettling. Four out of five stars.