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Investing Against the Tide: Lessons From A Life Running Money
Anthony Bolton, the UK’s most successful stock market investor, tells the story of his contrarian approach to managing money.
252 pages, Kindle Edition
First published March 26, 2009
70 people are currently reading
614 people want to read
About the author
Anthony Bolton
16 books8 followersAnthony Bolton is one of the UK's best known investment fund managers and most successful investors, having managed the Fidelity Special Situations fund from December 1979 to December 2007. Over this 28-year period the fund achieved annualised growth of 19.5%, far in excess of the 13.5% growth of the wider stock exchange, turning a £1,000 investment into £147,000.
Educated at Stowe School and Cambridge University, Bolton left with a degree in engineering and business studies. He pursued a career in the city where, age 29, he was recruited by Fidelity as one of their first London based investment managers. He is now President of Investments at Fidelity International Limited and manager of Fidelity China Special Situations PLC.
Educated at Stowe School and Cambridge University, Bolton left with a degree in engineering and business studies. He pursued a career in the city where, age 29, he was recruited by Fidelity as one of their first London based investment managers. He is now President of Investments at Fidelity International Limited and manager of Fidelity China Special Situations PLC.
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March 19, 2010
Anthony Bolton is perhaps UK's most successful stock market investor. In surveys of professional investors, he is regularly voted the fund manager most respected by his peers.
In this book he talks about his contrarian approach to managing money. The book reveals a surprising simplicity in his methods. It has useful insights about picking a stock, the need for good managements, how to construct a portfolio, the importance of financial parameters as well as charts. His style is value-based, with a touch of technicals. The book is short and easy to read, and would be more useful for people who are new to investing rather than the seasoned investors. However, all his ideas are thought provoking.
In this book he talks about his contrarian approach to managing money. The book reveals a surprising simplicity in his methods. It has useful insights about picking a stock, the need for good managements, how to construct a portfolio, the importance of financial parameters as well as charts. His style is value-based, with a touch of technicals. The book is short and easy to read, and would be more useful for people who are new to investing rather than the seasoned investors. However, all his ideas are thought provoking.
June 26, 2010
sweet short and succinct
what i learnt/ reinforced into me:
(1) cash flow per share
(2) debt/equity ratio
(3) contrarian approach to investing
the book is an easyleisure read and is more like the author's memoir/reflection after spending all these years investing...
what i learnt/ reinforced into me:
(1) cash flow per share
(2) debt/equity ratio
(3) contrarian approach to investing
the book is an easyleisure read and is more like the author's memoir/reflection after spending all these years investing...
August 17, 2019
First of all the book is wriiten sicerely. The writer told about his meeting and his worst and best stocks openly. He also refers to other investors quotation like peter lynch, warren bufeet etc. the book is like a summary and easy to read but the language comes a bit strange to Americaners.
February 4, 2017
สำหรับหนังสือเล่มนี้ ให้ได้เลย 5 ดาว ชอบคำพูดของแอนโทนี่ที่ว่า "ถ้าการวิเคราะห์ทางเทคนิคยืนยันมุมมองเชิงปัจจัยพื้นฐานของผม ผมก็จะซื้อหุ้นตัวนั้น แต่ถ้ามุมมองทางเทคนิคไม่ได้ยืนยันมุมมอง ผมจะทำการทบทวนการวิเคราะห์บริษัทอีกครั้ง ว่ามีปัจจัยเชิงลบอะไรที่ผมมองข้ามไปรึเปล่า"
July 31, 2017
Some interesting (very general) insights, but, overall, the book is quite weak, not deep enough. Miles away from "One Up on Wall Street" by Peter Lynch.
August 2, 2017
This is a pretty light collection of advice and recollections from a highly successful fund management career in the UK and Europe. Boton went on to have a considerably less successful second career in China between 2010-2014, which somewhat tarnished his reputation but, nonetheless, he’s definitely an investor worthy of some further study.
Breezy generalisations that are later contradicted and seemingly simple rules of thumb that are subject to endless exceptions are par for the course in this book. For example, we are advised not to take tips but are also quoted Nils Taube’s observation that investment is plagiarism. Bolton disapproves of target prices, which I would wholeheartedly agree with, but later advises that a stock reaching its target price should be sold. Later, price ‘ranges’ are recommended as more acceptable in what is probably sound advice. In any case, far from putting me off, these idiosyncrasies endeared the book and its author to me. Bolton is the consummate eclectic, using complex formulae to assess balance sheet risk while simultaneously meeting with Fidelity’s in house chartist to pour over the tea leaves. He talks about the importance of having a breadth of knowledge for success in fund management; a sentiment I wholeheartedly agree with. Privately, I hear he is an enthusiastic composer of music too. In this varied, and somewhat haphazard, approach I see a genuine investor who reminds me of other great investors I have met insofar as he has found a style that suits his personality and has broadly stuck to it. He even invokes this principle himself, advising people to, “Find a style or method that suits their temperament and then stick to that approach" (p156). Exactly what this style is may be harder to pin down precisely, as is almost always the case!
There were a few things I would broadly disagree with: First, the purity of philosophy. Bolton holds himself out to be something of a purist and often states rules but the reality is that he is more of a magpie, or perhaps a fox if we use Isaiah Berlin’s framework. He collects lots of different, disparate pieces of information and how these factors combine to create a portfolio is really anyone’s guess. A quick glance at his best and worst performers at the end of the book show his tastes to be very catholic, displaying no particular aversion to any part of the market. To be sure, there is a lot of useful information on how Bolton goes about his job in this book. However, I reject the conception of Bolton’s style as formulaic and easily replicable. Some of his decisions seem mercurial and are not easily explained by the investment philosophy advocated in this book. Bolton’s incredible prescience in buying and selling Cairn Energy, at the time a small oil and gas explorer, bears no relation to the style he espouses as far as I can see.
Bolton’s use of models is another area where I find myself in some disagreement with him. I see the future as so unknowable and non-linear, and models as so open to manipulation, that I see little value in this elaborate exercise in attempting to predict the future. Simple models are useful insofar as they may demonstrate to you what broad assumptions you’re making about a company’s prospects however I definitely place lesser importance on them than Bolton who sees them as central to his process.
Bolton sometimes casts himself as a long term investor and I don’t think this is really the case. For example, on p199 in re. hedge funds, quants and momentum investors he writes, "in some ways the market is more efficient, certainly in reacting to short term events. However, I am convinced that the growth of hedge funds, momentum investors and quant funds all jumping on a trend has led to periods of mis-pricing and led to great opportunities for investors taking a longer term view". However, he mentions his average holding period might be around 18 months, which is short term to me although it is long term compared to some other strategies. I’d be interested to know the turnover ratio for his Special Situations fund, for example. In any case, I don’t see him as a truly long term investor and some parts of his strategy are more akin to a trader; e.g. chartism and market timing.
He also claims not to look for takeover targets or to involve himself in market timing but then goes on to write quite extensively about the role both play in his style! To reiterate, I don’t think this makes him a bad fund manager, or that this makes it a bad book. Nonetheless, I do think it shows how flexible successful fund managers can be in their thinking and this flexibility may be one reason for their success.
Price is another good example of several contradictory things being said simultaneously. Bolton is against the totemisation of price and writes that he tries to forget it immediately after he has bought a stock as valuation is so much more important (p32). He even goes so far as to say fund managers would perform better without access to their own performance data (p145). However, he also makes looking at price charts a key part of his investment process and makes comments about using them to assess a company’s prospects (p107-8)! His predilection for chartism, one of the purest forms of analysis using only the price, seems similarly contradictory.
I’m also against Bolton’s section on the traits that make a good fund manager. Perhaps there are very broad shared characteristics to be found in all good fund managers and it may be a worthwhile endeavour to contemplate this question even if they do not. However, my guess is that when a successful fund manager talks about this topic all they end up doing is talking about how their characteristics have helped them. Or, more accurately, how they think their perception of their characteristics has helped them. Can we really talk about good traits in fund managers in a discipline so broad? Is it helpful? My guess is probably not but there are some interesting observations in what Bolton writes so it isn’t terrible.
Areas where I would agree with Bolton’s philosophy with varying degrees of enthusiasm include: His insistence on honesty in the people associated with your investments. You must trust the people who run the businesses that you invest in and if you can’t trust them then you can’t invest with them. A dishonest management team or owners can mean that you never see any of the money that a company makes, even if these profits are wonderful on paper.
I’m a big fan of his people focussed approach. All businesses are run by people and they can have a huge impact on a company’s fortunes depending on the industry it operates in. Regardless of the industry, people are very important to all businesses and I agree with Bolton’s extensive management meetings as a way of establishing the calibre of the people he is investing in.
Bolton’s insistence on integrity was also something that appealed to me and I do think that the book shows him in a broadly positive light in this regard. For this reason I was surprised to read about his investment in casinos, including US online gaming when it was illegal. This resulted in big losses in Party Gaming and Sportingbet. I was also surprised to see his ownership of cigarette companies. However, people have different ethical standards and I’m not suggesting that he has done anything dishonest. To a lesser extent, I was also surprised to find Bolton an advocate of more bank regulation in the aftermath of the 2007-8 credit crisis. While I agree that heightened supervision, especially of leverage, is desirable I also feel like the increased burden of regulatory compliance encourages consolidation in the industry and leads to “too big to fail” and all the horrors of moral hazard attendant! I would prefer some regulation to focus on fragmenting the market to spread risk amongst more institutions. In fairness some new banks have been created with encouragement from the regulator but I’d prefer to see larger steps in this direction.
Lastly, Bolton strikes me as a true eclectic and a life-long learner, which are two things that may be useful in a discipline as broad and varied as fund management. I realise that I’m now contradicting my earlier stated aversion to identifying common traits amongst fund managers on the grounds that the discipline was too broad and too varied! By doing so I’m placing myself with Bolton as a flexible, eclectic thinker with a genuine passion for knowledge and speculation. One who, like all good fund managers, is totally unafraid of contradictions!
On the whole, it was a decent combination of some general information on how Bolton picks stocks, notwithstanding his highly eclectic style, and reminiscences about his career. It’s far from a classic of the genre and the insights are hardly spectacular but it’s a quick, easy and fairly interesting read.
The following will attempt to summarise the things I noted and learned:
TYPES OF STOCKS HE LIKES & STOCK SELECTION
Cash generation is preferred to growth and consistently cash generating businesses are the best
Sensitivity to factors outside a company’s control reduce the quality of a business
L/T charts of price, P/E,B,S & EV to EBITDA (I’m less sure about last one), director dealing, management shareholdings, history of short interest, top shareholders, broker sentiment, earning upgrades/ downgrades, CDS spreads & history, size of pension fund liabilities to market cap
Invest in trustworthy management, ask questions in the negative not positive (not always)
Every stock should have a simple investment thesis comprehensible to a teenager. This should be checked regularly and is far more important than price targets. Bolton prefers price bands.
He likes cheap shares because of the "margin of safety" they afford and says he would always chose a 5% growth coy on 5x to 10% on 10 or 20% on 20x. He likes to look at historical valuation ranges. Also likes Holt, Quest and CROCI analyses.
Jeremy Grantham, "growth companies seem impressive as well as exciting. They seem so reasonable to own that they carry little career risk. Accordingly, they have underperformed for the last 50 years by 1.5% pa. value stocks, in contrast, belong to boring, struggling, or sub-average firms. Their continued poor performance seems, with hindsight, to have been predictable, and, therefore, when it happens, it carries serious career risk. To compensate for this career risk and lower fundamental quality, value stocks have outperformed by 1.5% pa." 94
Once a bid has been announced it's usually worth waiting unless you think it won't go through. Other bids may appear etc. Good acquisitions can be +ive for the acquirer but he is leery of "transformational" or "once in a lifetime deals" involving a high price / big premium. Unconventional financing such as covenant-lite loans or convertible preference shares usually a bad sign.
Chapter 10 - v interesting on turnarounds and unloved shares.
Peter Lynch, "does it sound dull, or even better, ridiculous? Does it do something dull? Does it do something disagreeable? Is it a spin off? Is it disregarded and not owned by institutions or not followed by analysts? Do rumours abound involving something like waste or mafia ownership? Is there something depressing about it? Is it a no-growth industry? These are all characteristics that tend to put off the majority of institutional and private investors and can lead to attractive investment opportunities" 91
Underperforming retailers / brand owners can improve via incremental small gains but should not be confused with weak franchises. Intra-Sectoral comparison can be useful here.
Falling dollar can be good for UK retailers and TV coys that buy product in $
CEOs with bodyguards for no ostensible reason shouldn't be trusted!
Like AT he likes companies with the share price in the lobby. AT includes "today's price....tomorrow is up to you"
He is a big believer in radio even in an online world
TRADING
Warns against doubling down, saying "in general it's not good practice to try and make it back the way you lost it" (32)
Good on the psychological factors associated with purchases and sales: easy to buy in an uptrend, harder in a downtrend. Buying a share that has fallen to your desired price is often hard because we are influenced by the opinion being expressed by the market
Once we buy / sell a share this often cements our +ive / -ive opinion and closes one's mind to new evidence
Everyone thinks they are better at investment than we are
We are too conservative taking gains and too relaxed running losses
Investors underestimate likelihood of rare events normally until they happen and then their probability is overestimated because we are all overly influenced by the short term
He holds for quite a short period (18m) and seems to believe he can identify "valuation anomalies", which is probably overconfident and misguided
PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION
Try to win by not losing too often. Like AT, risk is losing money. Suggests writing down all stocks under headings Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Reduce, Sell, ? every month
For the most part he stays pretty fully invested and takes a "gradualist" approach, reducing risky stuff in a bull and adding in a bear - or attempting too!!
50 stocks is a good size - i think a few more depending on % in small cap
Only wants to own big defensive coys in size >200bps and would rarely go over 400bps
Reasons to sell: 1) change in thesis 2) reached price target (another contradiction of his aversion to TPs) 3) better ideas - also i would add 4) if you buy the wrong stock
Beware unintended bets for e.g. Lots of currency or interest rate exposure
RESEARCH
Read original coy docs not reports. Especially IPO and issue docs as they are heavily independently supervised and contain more info than usual.
He places a lot of importance on models, which is mainly BS in my eyes notwithstanding the fact that investors must use what they find helpful
Balance sheet risk is the biggest factor in losing money. He uses H-scores and Z-scores to assess this risk and a service called company watch.
Avoid using PE for lumpy businesses like housebuilders, PB better
Likes technical analysis and uses it as an overlay for fundamental analysis. If it agrees then it will increase conviction, and if it disagrees he may go back and check his research. Also uses it to generate ideas for further research and used to have his portfolio analysed by a chartist. Also like to look at ratios as charts and read them. Graphical representation is a quick way of placing a factor in its historical context. AT always liked to turn them upside down!!
Ask brokers what services no one uses and, similarly, like DG said, which stocks no one asks about!!
Look at consensus and bet where your opinions are v different. Akin to a tissue in gambling
MARKET TIMING
Safe yields are good way of limiting downside. Break up values and PEG ratios are bull market signs while divvy yields and coverage ratios are more in vogue in bear markets
Big private equity deals are a bull market sign because of the prevalence of debt. Uncontrolled coys with large cash balances and / or strong cash flow are usually targets but he dislikes trying to identify M&A takeover targets.
"Often you need to buy a recovery stock before you have all the information and it doesn't feel comfortable making the purchase - don't be put off by this. By the time all the information is there and the recovery is established, an investor will have missed some of the most rewarding times to own the shares" 92
Don't time the market! The majority are always proved wrong.
Bull markets go on longer than you expect and bear markets can have a couple of false starts before they really get going. Tops and bottoms usually have a V shape, which is a ^ at the top. End of bull markets usually have a blow off of v strong price action in a short period of time.
"At tops, it's not that the news stops being good, it's that it stops getting better, with the reverse at lows" 135
The beginning of two middle east wars marked market lows in his career as the market was v early in anticipating them meaning it was in the price by the time they started
"Markets bottom not because of the appearance of buyers but because sellers stop selling and there is a similar process at tops" 136 - monitoring cash positions is interesting in this regard
The outlook for the economy is not what's important at market tops, it is almost always good, rather it is the assumptions that are contained in the share prices that are dangerous / risky. Economic outlook is essentially useless as it is good at the top and bad at the bottom = lagging indicator
3 factors for judging market timing (again, something he claims he doesn't do!) - 1) length and distance travelled in bull / bear market 2) indicators of investor sentiment - put / call ratio, broker sentiment, breadth, volatility, mutual fund cash positions etc. 3) LT PB and PFCF - he says if all three agree then you will get the right quarter. Is this true for current bull market?
DESIRABLE QUALITIES FOR A GOOD FUND MANAGER
"Often there is so much analysis of the branch or even the leaves on the branch, there are fewer people taking a view on the tree, let alone a view of the forest" 139
Grantham "the stock market fluctuates many times more than would be suggested by its future stream of earnings or dividends or by the GNP, both of which are remarkably stable: i.e. the market is driven by greed, fear and career risk, not economics. Real risk is mainly career and business risk, which together shape our industry. efforts to reduced career risk - "never be wrong on your own" - create herding, momentum and extrapolation which together are the main causes of mispricing." 139
"I've always thought the best environment in which a FM could perform well was one in which they didn't know how they were doing" 145
What to do when you're doing badly - 1) see how much your views agree with consensus and are therefore risky 2) keep conviction around 50% where 0 is no conviction and 100 is never change your mind 3) stick to principles and don't do things you don't believe in 4) draw up start from scratch portfolio and compare to actual 5) make sure you're spending enough time looking for new ideas 6) look at the portfolio as a whole - are highest conviction bets big enough etc
Temperament is more important than intelligence - ability to deal with success and failure, willingness to make mistakes
Organisation also v important as events can consume the whole day. One should dedicate the majority of the day to reading and planned activities not market watching or new flow following
Breadth of knowledge is important - cf charlie munger
Very cynical people don't make good investors - true? Have to be able to change your mind and move on - although stubbornness can be helpful too!
Be your own person and don't take comfort from the crowd. John Maynard Keynes "worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for the reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally"
Never stop learning
Know thyself
Integrity is key - both with other people and yourself
Every good FM will have an underperforming year (bolton 1989, 1990 and 1991 - strange not during tech bubble but perhaps not that big in UK?)
MISCELLANEOUS
In 70s the punishment for entering the stock exchange floor without being a member was a de-bagging!! P195
He is against stamp duty and advocates reducing the risk of a PE takeover in listed equities by increasing leverage
Breezy generalisations that are later contradicted and seemingly simple rules of thumb that are subject to endless exceptions are par for the course in this book. For example, we are advised not to take tips but are also quoted Nils Taube’s observation that investment is plagiarism. Bolton disapproves of target prices, which I would wholeheartedly agree with, but later advises that a stock reaching its target price should be sold. Later, price ‘ranges’ are recommended as more acceptable in what is probably sound advice. In any case, far from putting me off, these idiosyncrasies endeared the book and its author to me. Bolton is the consummate eclectic, using complex formulae to assess balance sheet risk while simultaneously meeting with Fidelity’s in house chartist to pour over the tea leaves. He talks about the importance of having a breadth of knowledge for success in fund management; a sentiment I wholeheartedly agree with. Privately, I hear he is an enthusiastic composer of music too. In this varied, and somewhat haphazard, approach I see a genuine investor who reminds me of other great investors I have met insofar as he has found a style that suits his personality and has broadly stuck to it. He even invokes this principle himself, advising people to, “Find a style or method that suits their temperament and then stick to that approach" (p156). Exactly what this style is may be harder to pin down precisely, as is almost always the case!
There were a few things I would broadly disagree with: First, the purity of philosophy. Bolton holds himself out to be something of a purist and often states rules but the reality is that he is more of a magpie, or perhaps a fox if we use Isaiah Berlin’s framework. He collects lots of different, disparate pieces of information and how these factors combine to create a portfolio is really anyone’s guess. A quick glance at his best and worst performers at the end of the book show his tastes to be very catholic, displaying no particular aversion to any part of the market. To be sure, there is a lot of useful information on how Bolton goes about his job in this book. However, I reject the conception of Bolton’s style as formulaic and easily replicable. Some of his decisions seem mercurial and are not easily explained by the investment philosophy advocated in this book. Bolton’s incredible prescience in buying and selling Cairn Energy, at the time a small oil and gas explorer, bears no relation to the style he espouses as far as I can see.
Bolton’s use of models is another area where I find myself in some disagreement with him. I see the future as so unknowable and non-linear, and models as so open to manipulation, that I see little value in this elaborate exercise in attempting to predict the future. Simple models are useful insofar as they may demonstrate to you what broad assumptions you’re making about a company’s prospects however I definitely place lesser importance on them than Bolton who sees them as central to his process.
Bolton sometimes casts himself as a long term investor and I don’t think this is really the case. For example, on p199 in re. hedge funds, quants and momentum investors he writes, "in some ways the market is more efficient, certainly in reacting to short term events. However, I am convinced that the growth of hedge funds, momentum investors and quant funds all jumping on a trend has led to periods of mis-pricing and led to great opportunities for investors taking a longer term view". However, he mentions his average holding period might be around 18 months, which is short term to me although it is long term compared to some other strategies. I’d be interested to know the turnover ratio for his Special Situations fund, for example. In any case, I don’t see him as a truly long term investor and some parts of his strategy are more akin to a trader; e.g. chartism and market timing.
He also claims not to look for takeover targets or to involve himself in market timing but then goes on to write quite extensively about the role both play in his style! To reiterate, I don’t think this makes him a bad fund manager, or that this makes it a bad book. Nonetheless, I do think it shows how flexible successful fund managers can be in their thinking and this flexibility may be one reason for their success.
Price is another good example of several contradictory things being said simultaneously. Bolton is against the totemisation of price and writes that he tries to forget it immediately after he has bought a stock as valuation is so much more important (p32). He even goes so far as to say fund managers would perform better without access to their own performance data (p145). However, he also makes looking at price charts a key part of his investment process and makes comments about using them to assess a company’s prospects (p107-8)! His predilection for chartism, one of the purest forms of analysis using only the price, seems similarly contradictory.
I’m also against Bolton’s section on the traits that make a good fund manager. Perhaps there are very broad shared characteristics to be found in all good fund managers and it may be a worthwhile endeavour to contemplate this question even if they do not. However, my guess is that when a successful fund manager talks about this topic all they end up doing is talking about how their characteristics have helped them. Or, more accurately, how they think their perception of their characteristics has helped them. Can we really talk about good traits in fund managers in a discipline so broad? Is it helpful? My guess is probably not but there are some interesting observations in what Bolton writes so it isn’t terrible.
Areas where I would agree with Bolton’s philosophy with varying degrees of enthusiasm include: His insistence on honesty in the people associated with your investments. You must trust the people who run the businesses that you invest in and if you can’t trust them then you can’t invest with them. A dishonest management team or owners can mean that you never see any of the money that a company makes, even if these profits are wonderful on paper.
I’m a big fan of his people focussed approach. All businesses are run by people and they can have a huge impact on a company’s fortunes depending on the industry it operates in. Regardless of the industry, people are very important to all businesses and I agree with Bolton’s extensive management meetings as a way of establishing the calibre of the people he is investing in.
Bolton’s insistence on integrity was also something that appealed to me and I do think that the book shows him in a broadly positive light in this regard. For this reason I was surprised to read about his investment in casinos, including US online gaming when it was illegal. This resulted in big losses in Party Gaming and Sportingbet. I was also surprised to see his ownership of cigarette companies. However, people have different ethical standards and I’m not suggesting that he has done anything dishonest. To a lesser extent, I was also surprised to find Bolton an advocate of more bank regulation in the aftermath of the 2007-8 credit crisis. While I agree that heightened supervision, especially of leverage, is desirable I also feel like the increased burden of regulatory compliance encourages consolidation in the industry and leads to “too big to fail” and all the horrors of moral hazard attendant! I would prefer some regulation to focus on fragmenting the market to spread risk amongst more institutions. In fairness some new banks have been created with encouragement from the regulator but I’d prefer to see larger steps in this direction.
Lastly, Bolton strikes me as a true eclectic and a life-long learner, which are two things that may be useful in a discipline as broad and varied as fund management. I realise that I’m now contradicting my earlier stated aversion to identifying common traits amongst fund managers on the grounds that the discipline was too broad and too varied! By doing so I’m placing myself with Bolton as a flexible, eclectic thinker with a genuine passion for knowledge and speculation. One who, like all good fund managers, is totally unafraid of contradictions!
On the whole, it was a decent combination of some general information on how Bolton picks stocks, notwithstanding his highly eclectic style, and reminiscences about his career. It’s far from a classic of the genre and the insights are hardly spectacular but it’s a quick, easy and fairly interesting read.
The following will attempt to summarise the things I noted and learned:
TYPES OF STOCKS HE LIKES & STOCK SELECTION
Cash generation is preferred to growth and consistently cash generating businesses are the best
Sensitivity to factors outside a company’s control reduce the quality of a business
L/T charts of price, P/E,B,S & EV to EBITDA (I’m less sure about last one), director dealing, management shareholdings, history of short interest, top shareholders, broker sentiment, earning upgrades/ downgrades, CDS spreads & history, size of pension fund liabilities to market cap
Invest in trustworthy management, ask questions in the negative not positive (not always)
Every stock should have a simple investment thesis comprehensible to a teenager. This should be checked regularly and is far more important than price targets. Bolton prefers price bands.
He likes cheap shares because of the "margin of safety" they afford and says he would always chose a 5% growth coy on 5x to 10% on 10 or 20% on 20x. He likes to look at historical valuation ranges. Also likes Holt, Quest and CROCI analyses.
Jeremy Grantham, "growth companies seem impressive as well as exciting. They seem so reasonable to own that they carry little career risk. Accordingly, they have underperformed for the last 50 years by 1.5% pa. value stocks, in contrast, belong to boring, struggling, or sub-average firms. Their continued poor performance seems, with hindsight, to have been predictable, and, therefore, when it happens, it carries serious career risk. To compensate for this career risk and lower fundamental quality, value stocks have outperformed by 1.5% pa." 94
Once a bid has been announced it's usually worth waiting unless you think it won't go through. Other bids may appear etc. Good acquisitions can be +ive for the acquirer but he is leery of "transformational" or "once in a lifetime deals" involving a high price / big premium. Unconventional financing such as covenant-lite loans or convertible preference shares usually a bad sign.
Chapter 10 - v interesting on turnarounds and unloved shares.
Peter Lynch, "does it sound dull, or even better, ridiculous? Does it do something dull? Does it do something disagreeable? Is it a spin off? Is it disregarded and not owned by institutions or not followed by analysts? Do rumours abound involving something like waste or mafia ownership? Is there something depressing about it? Is it a no-growth industry? These are all characteristics that tend to put off the majority of institutional and private investors and can lead to attractive investment opportunities" 91
Underperforming retailers / brand owners can improve via incremental small gains but should not be confused with weak franchises. Intra-Sectoral comparison can be useful here.
Falling dollar can be good for UK retailers and TV coys that buy product in $
CEOs with bodyguards for no ostensible reason shouldn't be trusted!
Like AT he likes companies with the share price in the lobby. AT includes "today's price....tomorrow is up to you"
He is a big believer in radio even in an online world
TRADING
Warns against doubling down, saying "in general it's not good practice to try and make it back the way you lost it" (32)
Good on the psychological factors associated with purchases and sales: easy to buy in an uptrend, harder in a downtrend. Buying a share that has fallen to your desired price is often hard because we are influenced by the opinion being expressed by the market
Once we buy / sell a share this often cements our +ive / -ive opinion and closes one's mind to new evidence
Everyone thinks they are better at investment than we are
We are too conservative taking gains and too relaxed running losses
Investors underestimate likelihood of rare events normally until they happen and then their probability is overestimated because we are all overly influenced by the short term
He holds for quite a short period (18m) and seems to believe he can identify "valuation anomalies", which is probably overconfident and misguided
PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION
Try to win by not losing too often. Like AT, risk is losing money. Suggests writing down all stocks under headings Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Reduce, Sell, ? every month
For the most part he stays pretty fully invested and takes a "gradualist" approach, reducing risky stuff in a bull and adding in a bear - or attempting too!!
50 stocks is a good size - i think a few more depending on % in small cap
Only wants to own big defensive coys in size >200bps and would rarely go over 400bps
Reasons to sell: 1) change in thesis 2) reached price target (another contradiction of his aversion to TPs) 3) better ideas - also i would add 4) if you buy the wrong stock
Beware unintended bets for e.g. Lots of currency or interest rate exposure
RESEARCH
Read original coy docs not reports. Especially IPO and issue docs as they are heavily independently supervised and contain more info than usual.
He places a lot of importance on models, which is mainly BS in my eyes notwithstanding the fact that investors must use what they find helpful
Balance sheet risk is the biggest factor in losing money. He uses H-scores and Z-scores to assess this risk and a service called company watch.
Avoid using PE for lumpy businesses like housebuilders, PB better
Likes technical analysis and uses it as an overlay for fundamental analysis. If it agrees then it will increase conviction, and if it disagrees he may go back and check his research. Also uses it to generate ideas for further research and used to have his portfolio analysed by a chartist. Also like to look at ratios as charts and read them. Graphical representation is a quick way of placing a factor in its historical context. AT always liked to turn them upside down!!
Ask brokers what services no one uses and, similarly, like DG said, which stocks no one asks about!!
Look at consensus and bet where your opinions are v different. Akin to a tissue in gambling
MARKET TIMING
Safe yields are good way of limiting downside. Break up values and PEG ratios are bull market signs while divvy yields and coverage ratios are more in vogue in bear markets
Big private equity deals are a bull market sign because of the prevalence of debt. Uncontrolled coys with large cash balances and / or strong cash flow are usually targets but he dislikes trying to identify M&A takeover targets.
"Often you need to buy a recovery stock before you have all the information and it doesn't feel comfortable making the purchase - don't be put off by this. By the time all the information is there and the recovery is established, an investor will have missed some of the most rewarding times to own the shares" 92
Don't time the market! The majority are always proved wrong.
Bull markets go on longer than you expect and bear markets can have a couple of false starts before they really get going. Tops and bottoms usually have a V shape, which is a ^ at the top. End of bull markets usually have a blow off of v strong price action in a short period of time.
"At tops, it's not that the news stops being good, it's that it stops getting better, with the reverse at lows" 135
The beginning of two middle east wars marked market lows in his career as the market was v early in anticipating them meaning it was in the price by the time they started
"Markets bottom not because of the appearance of buyers but because sellers stop selling and there is a similar process at tops" 136 - monitoring cash positions is interesting in this regard
The outlook for the economy is not what's important at market tops, it is almost always good, rather it is the assumptions that are contained in the share prices that are dangerous / risky. Economic outlook is essentially useless as it is good at the top and bad at the bottom = lagging indicator
3 factors for judging market timing (again, something he claims he doesn't do!) - 1) length and distance travelled in bull / bear market 2) indicators of investor sentiment - put / call ratio, broker sentiment, breadth, volatility, mutual fund cash positions etc. 3) LT PB and PFCF - he says if all three agree then you will get the right quarter. Is this true for current bull market?
DESIRABLE QUALITIES FOR A GOOD FUND MANAGER
"Often there is so much analysis of the branch or even the leaves on the branch, there are fewer people taking a view on the tree, let alone a view of the forest" 139
Grantham "the stock market fluctuates many times more than would be suggested by its future stream of earnings or dividends or by the GNP, both of which are remarkably stable: i.e. the market is driven by greed, fear and career risk, not economics. Real risk is mainly career and business risk, which together shape our industry. efforts to reduced career risk - "never be wrong on your own" - create herding, momentum and extrapolation which together are the main causes of mispricing." 139
"I've always thought the best environment in which a FM could perform well was one in which they didn't know how they were doing" 145
What to do when you're doing badly - 1) see how much your views agree with consensus and are therefore risky 2) keep conviction around 50% where 0 is no conviction and 100 is never change your mind 3) stick to principles and don't do things you don't believe in 4) draw up start from scratch portfolio and compare to actual 5) make sure you're spending enough time looking for new ideas 6) look at the portfolio as a whole - are highest conviction bets big enough etc
Temperament is more important than intelligence - ability to deal with success and failure, willingness to make mistakes
Organisation also v important as events can consume the whole day. One should dedicate the majority of the day to reading and planned activities not market watching or new flow following
Breadth of knowledge is important - cf charlie munger
Very cynical people don't make good investors - true? Have to be able to change your mind and move on - although stubbornness can be helpful too!
Be your own person and don't take comfort from the crowd. John Maynard Keynes "worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for the reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally"
Never stop learning
Know thyself
Integrity is key - both with other people and yourself
Every good FM will have an underperforming year (bolton 1989, 1990 and 1991 - strange not during tech bubble but perhaps not that big in UK?)
MISCELLANEOUS
In 70s the punishment for entering the stock exchange floor without being a member was a de-bagging!! P195
He is against stamp duty and advocates reducing the risk of a PE takeover in listed equities by increasing leverage
March 23, 2016
Investing against the tide (Anthony Bolton)
It's one of few books that recounts investing from the perspective of an European fund manager. The book is in form of small, easy to read chapters. There is a summary of all the chapters at the end of the book. It include all the major rules of investing as well as some ideas specific to the author. Major ideas from the book include:
1) Look for anomalies in intrinsic value and market price.
1A) Every stock you own should have thesis.
2) Look for out of favor companies.
3) Takeover targets, recovery stocks might offer value.
4)Find out the ratios and metric that are relevant for the industry/company.
5) Think in terms of level of conviction rather in terms of prices, buy/sell in increments.
There are many small things that have been touched upon by the author. However, if you had read other books on investing and especially value investing you can skip this one.
It's one of few books that recounts investing from the perspective of an European fund manager. The book is in form of small, easy to read chapters. There is a summary of all the chapters at the end of the book. It include all the major rules of investing as well as some ideas specific to the author. Major ideas from the book include:
1) Look for anomalies in intrinsic value and market price.
1A) Every stock you own should have thesis.
2) Look for out of favor companies.
3) Takeover targets, recovery stocks might offer value.
4)Find out the ratios and metric that are relevant for the industry/company.
5) Think in terms of level of conviction rather in terms of prices, buy/sell in increments.
There are many small things that have been touched upon by the author. However, if you had read other books on investing and especially value investing you can skip this one.
August 22, 2018
Most of us know of several successful US managers, but when it comes to European managers it’s much more difficult. The author of this book is one of the most successful European investors, Anthony Bolton, who very successfully managed several Fidelity funds between 1979 and 2007. The foreword of the book is written by Peter Lynch, the American legend, whom which Bolton has worked with and shares a lot of investing principles with. The author’s quotes from various friends/legends are all American, like Bill Miller (whose tenure at Legg Mason ended in tears), Jeremy Grantham and Warren Buffet.
The book is divided into three parts. The first part presents 17 principles (in 17 very short chapters) on how to run money. Bolton tells you his views on everything from company meetings to what personal traits a successful money manager should have. This is the best part of the book, where you actually can get the key point of the book by reading just chapters 1, 2, 6, 8, 9 and 12. The second part is more about his reflections from a life of running money and the third and final part is a shortlist on everything you should remember after reading the book.
Anthony Bolton writes very in an easy language and the book can easily be read in a day or during a long flight. Some might think it’s too simple and yes, there are a lot of things that others have talked extensively about, but I appreciate most of his comments and I think most will find something that improves his or hers work in this industry. The book is a pleasure to read and Mr Bolton shares his experiences in a light way and has plenty to give.
There are a few chapters that I really like. Chapter 4, on sentiment is one. Here he observes the need to keep an open mind. “Once we buy shares we become less open to the idea that our decision to buy was wrong. We close our mind to evidence that doesn’t confirm our initial thesis” and “investors underestimate the likelihood of rare events happening when they haven’t happened recently and overestimates them when they just have.”
Chapter 16 is another great part. In just 2 pages he writes what to do when you are not doing well. (I am myself thinking of writing an entire book about this at some point since it’s a fascinating topic.) Everyone in this industry, or private investors, will sooner or later have problems (witness Bill Gross and John Paulson’s performance in 2011 for example). Just like athletes who are out of form, you need a reset, and your ability to deal with this is critical.
You should not read this book if you have read a lot of investment books and want to learn new things as most of his thoughts have been written extensively by others. In fact you could argue it‘s just a rehash of a lot of things others have said better. However, you should read this book if you want an easy to read introduction to financial literature, or are curious on how one of Europe’s most successful investors did it. The latter reason is good enough for me.
As a final note, after retiring in 2007, Bolton decided to move to China and start a new fund in 2010, Fidelity China Special Situation. He had at this point decided that there were so many opportunities in China that he had to go there. The China fund had a good start, +30%, but then almost halved and he is lagging his benchmark badly. Now, for the first time, he is highly questioned, with limited use of his old track record of taking an investment of 1 pound to 148 pounds in 28 years in his old fund, Fidelity UK Special Situations. I personally hope he turns it around, and writes another book about that specific experience.
The book is divided into three parts. The first part presents 17 principles (in 17 very short chapters) on how to run money. Bolton tells you his views on everything from company meetings to what personal traits a successful money manager should have. This is the best part of the book, where you actually can get the key point of the book by reading just chapters 1, 2, 6, 8, 9 and 12. The second part is more about his reflections from a life of running money and the third and final part is a shortlist on everything you should remember after reading the book.
Anthony Bolton writes very in an easy language and the book can easily be read in a day or during a long flight. Some might think it’s too simple and yes, there are a lot of things that others have talked extensively about, but I appreciate most of his comments and I think most will find something that improves his or hers work in this industry. The book is a pleasure to read and Mr Bolton shares his experiences in a light way and has plenty to give.
There are a few chapters that I really like. Chapter 4, on sentiment is one. Here he observes the need to keep an open mind. “Once we buy shares we become less open to the idea that our decision to buy was wrong. We close our mind to evidence that doesn’t confirm our initial thesis” and “investors underestimate the likelihood of rare events happening when they haven’t happened recently and overestimates them when they just have.”
Chapter 16 is another great part. In just 2 pages he writes what to do when you are not doing well. (I am myself thinking of writing an entire book about this at some point since it’s a fascinating topic.) Everyone in this industry, or private investors, will sooner or later have problems (witness Bill Gross and John Paulson’s performance in 2011 for example). Just like athletes who are out of form, you need a reset, and your ability to deal with this is critical.
You should not read this book if you have read a lot of investment books and want to learn new things as most of his thoughts have been written extensively by others. In fact you could argue it‘s just a rehash of a lot of things others have said better. However, you should read this book if you want an easy to read introduction to financial literature, or are curious on how one of Europe’s most successful investors did it. The latter reason is good enough for me.
As a final note, after retiring in 2007, Bolton decided to move to China and start a new fund in 2010, Fidelity China Special Situation. He had at this point decided that there were so many opportunities in China that he had to go there. The China fund had a good start, +30%, but then almost halved and he is lagging his benchmark badly. Now, for the first time, he is highly questioned, with limited use of his old track record of taking an investment of 1 pound to 148 pounds in 28 years in his old fund, Fidelity UK Special Situations. I personally hope he turns it around, and writes another book about that specific experience.
Read
January 31, 2022someone seeking an information edge
plagiarism is the key to good investing
If you can think logically, objectively and independently and ‘keep your head when others are losing theirs’, you have the starting blocks to being a successful investor.
‘You should invest in a business that even a fool can run, because someday a fool will’ Warren Buffett
I ask myself a very simple question: ‘How likely is this business to be around in ten years’ time and to be more valuable than today?
Another important question to ask is, how much does a particular business stand on its own two feet: how does it exist relatively independent of the macro factors around it.
An exporter of commodity products would fall into this sensitive category. A few years ago, I remember only too well looking at a medium-sized, UK-based chemical company that exported most of its product to the continent. At the sterling-euro exchange rate at the time it had a good business but I worked out that, if the currency moved 15 per cent against it, it might have no business
I also prefer reasonably simple businesses. If the business model is very difficult to understand I’m happy to pass on it –there are lots of others that are easier to understand.
The first meeting doesn’t have to be with the chief executive; a good investor relations person at a company can be very helpful in describing the business in detail and helping me assess the business franchise.
I will also see how much of the company is held by insiders.
I will look at a financial strength report (H-Score report, see Chapter 7), a chart showing the net short position and how it has moved over time, a chart of the credit default spreads where these exist, as it can be an early indicator of problems ahead, an indication of whether the company is liked or not liked by brokers and an indication of whether it’s highly owned or lowly owned by the institutional investors.
Company meetings in our offices are normally with the chief executive or finance director of a company.
‘The ultimate commendation is when a company talks positively about a competitor
When I meet the management of a company the things I am trying to assess are their competence, their personal characteristics (e.g., are they optimists or pessimists by nature), are they more strategic or operational, how the management team works and most importantly how they are rewarded and what their incentives are.
managements that normally impress me are those that have a detailed knowledge of the business –strategically, operationally and financially. They tend to be fanatical about the business, working long hours and demanding high performance and excellence from their team
I may ask a question in the negative, so, for example, if discussing a UK company’s manufacturing operation in China, instead of asking ‘So, China’s going well for you?’ to which the reply might just be ‘Yes’, I would say: ‘We hear some companies have found manufacturing in China more challenging that they first thought.’
One of the more important inputs into my investment process is watching share-dealing by insiders.
Another thing I’ve learnt is that people don’t change.
Warren Buffett said that he liked to employ or invest in managers he would be happy to see married to his daughter. I don’t think you need to go that far but the sentiment it makes sense!
plagiarism is the key to good investing
If you can think logically, objectively and independently and ‘keep your head when others are losing theirs’, you have the starting blocks to being a successful investor.
‘You should invest in a business that even a fool can run, because someday a fool will’ Warren Buffett
I ask myself a very simple question: ‘How likely is this business to be around in ten years’ time and to be more valuable than today?
Another important question to ask is, how much does a particular business stand on its own two feet: how does it exist relatively independent of the macro factors around it.
An exporter of commodity products would fall into this sensitive category. A few years ago, I remember only too well looking at a medium-sized, UK-based chemical company that exported most of its product to the continent. At the sterling-euro exchange rate at the time it had a good business but I worked out that, if the currency moved 15 per cent against it, it might have no business
I also prefer reasonably simple businesses. If the business model is very difficult to understand I’m happy to pass on it –there are lots of others that are easier to understand.
The first meeting doesn’t have to be with the chief executive; a good investor relations person at a company can be very helpful in describing the business in detail and helping me assess the business franchise.
I will also see how much of the company is held by insiders.
I will look at a financial strength report (H-Score report, see Chapter 7), a chart showing the net short position and how it has moved over time, a chart of the credit default spreads where these exist, as it can be an early indicator of problems ahead, an indication of whether the company is liked or not liked by brokers and an indication of whether it’s highly owned or lowly owned by the institutional investors.
Company meetings in our offices are normally with the chief executive or finance director of a company.
‘The ultimate commendation is when a company talks positively about a competitor
When I meet the management of a company the things I am trying to assess are their competence, their personal characteristics (e.g., are they optimists or pessimists by nature), are they more strategic or operational, how the management team works and most importantly how they are rewarded and what their incentives are.
managements that normally impress me are those that have a detailed knowledge of the business –strategically, operationally and financially. They tend to be fanatical about the business, working long hours and demanding high performance and excellence from their team
I may ask a question in the negative, so, for example, if discussing a UK company’s manufacturing operation in China, instead of asking ‘So, China’s going well for you?’ to which the reply might just be ‘Yes’, I would say: ‘We hear some companies have found manufacturing in China more challenging that they first thought.’
One of the more important inputs into my investment process is watching share-dealing by insiders.
Another thing I’ve learnt is that people don’t change.
Warren Buffett said that he liked to employ or invest in managers he would be happy to see married to his daughter. I don’t think you need to go that far but the sentiment it makes sense!
December 29, 2018
Sure, there ar some good investing tips in here, but anybody who has read 10+ books on the topic, will probably not find much that's new. That can't be held against this book.
This is not a thick book and towards the end are several pages where he just rattles off stocks he held in his portfolio that did well and some that didn't. But there is just about zero quantitative content! He's just reflecting on major devolpments of the companies at the time, there is little of value here. You'd like to know why he bought the companies in the first place, but you'll just read sth along the lines of:
"In November 1998, to focus on the media industry, United Business Media spun off their money-broking business to shareholders. Initially the shares were very lowly valued. I made it a reasonably-sized position in the fund and by 2001 it was one of my biggest holdings."
Read this section about hedge funds:
" The influx of money has led a number of funds to be set up, sometimes with managers with unproved ability. Therefore, I believe that the returns from the average hedge fund are likely to fall and there will be more ‘blow ups’, particularly if levels of gearing available in the past are not available for the next couple of years and these newer investors are disappointed as a result."
I wish Warren Buffett heard this reasoning! Here Mr Bolton is saying, that without plenty of leverage, Hedge Funds will have poorer results! Warren would tell him, that leverage ('gearing') goes both ways! More leverage, will also lead to a different kind of "blow up"! I think his use of 'blow ups' is supposed to mean somewhat below average results and investors leaving the fund as a result. — However, if you you add leverage, you are less likely to have bored customers, because you'll have mega swings, 50% go the wrong way on average and because you collect hedge fund fees - on average, customers of hedge funds underperform the S&P 500. Sadness.
He actually mentions the latter part about fees for managed funds, so he earns some respect for openness.
This is not a thick book and towards the end are several pages where he just rattles off stocks he held in his portfolio that did well and some that didn't. But there is just about zero quantitative content! He's just reflecting on major devolpments of the companies at the time, there is little of value here. You'd like to know why he bought the companies in the first place, but you'll just read sth along the lines of:
"In November 1998, to focus on the media industry, United Business Media spun off their money-broking business to shareholders. Initially the shares were very lowly valued. I made it a reasonably-sized position in the fund and by 2001 it was one of my biggest holdings."
Read this section about hedge funds:
" The influx of money has led a number of funds to be set up, sometimes with managers with unproved ability. Therefore, I believe that the returns from the average hedge fund are likely to fall and there will be more ‘blow ups’, particularly if levels of gearing available in the past are not available for the next couple of years and these newer investors are disappointed as a result."
I wish Warren Buffett heard this reasoning! Here Mr Bolton is saying, that without plenty of leverage, Hedge Funds will have poorer results! Warren would tell him, that leverage ('gearing') goes both ways! More leverage, will also lead to a different kind of "blow up"! I think his use of 'blow ups' is supposed to mean somewhat below average results and investors leaving the fund as a result. — However, if you you add leverage, you are less likely to have bored customers, because you'll have mega swings, 50% go the wrong way on average and because you collect hedge fund fees - on average, customers of hedge funds underperform the S&P 500. Sadness.
He actually mentions the latter part about fees for managed funds, so he earns some respect for openness.
December 11, 2024
It's one of the few books that recounts investing from the perspective of an Equropean fund manager. The book is in the form of small easy to read chapters. There is a summary of all the the chapters at the end of the book. It includes all the essential rules of value investing as well as some ideas specific to the author. Major ideas from the books are:
1. Look for anomalies in intrinsic value and market price.
2. Look for out of favour companies. Take over targets/ recovery stocks might offer value.
3. Find out ratios/ metrics that are relevant for the industry/company.
4. Think in terms of level of conviction, rather than in terms of price.
5. But sell in increments.
6. Read history to find out what is normal, what is high, low for the industry or stock.
There are many important things that have been touched by the author.
1. Look for anomalies in intrinsic value and market price.
2. Look for out of favour companies. Take over targets/ recovery stocks might offer value.
3. Find out ratios/ metrics that are relevant for the industry/company.
4. Think in terms of level of conviction, rather than in terms of price.
5. But sell in increments.
6. Read history to find out what is normal, what is high, low for the industry or stock.
There are many important things that have been touched by the author.
January 17, 2021
I had the good fortune of meeting Anthony in the first week of my buy-side career. I read the book for the first time in 2005 after meeting him. Two things I liked - it’s written by a practitioner who is honest about his experiences ( way more valuable than one written by a commentator) and it is more about brass tacks of institutional investing - like conducting corporate meetings, making notes, revisiting them etc ; and not platitudes rehashed from Graham, Buffett and Munger. Contrary as it may seem, but one star docked but not rising about the every-day. Would have loved some more distillation of experiences from his long and distinguished career.
November 5, 2019
I find it hard to determine who Anthony Bolton published this book for, for the ordinary retail investor, I feel the book may be a bit technical for them, for the established investors, the information is too brief and lacking the necessary detail.
Towards the end, he talked about his best and worst investments, but they were too brief, compared to other books I've read, I couldn't gather much how he evaluated the investment or his thinking behind the investment, which I felt was a pity.
Towards the end, he talked about his best and worst investments, but they were too brief, compared to other books I've read, I couldn't gather much how he evaluated the investment or his thinking behind the investment, which I felt was a pity.
December 25, 2025
Didn't know Bolton basically at all prior reading this, only his track record. Chapters are brief and easily digestible. Most highlights were very descriptive but lacked concrete examples. References were made with his career moves and not so much outside it to further strengthen points made.
Few cases from Finland were interesting to read (Amer, Tieto, Nokia) for a Finn. For even little seasoned investor, there were no new learnings apart from getting to know Anthony Bolton better.
Few cases from Finland were interesting to read (Amer, Tieto, Nokia) for a Finn. For even little seasoned investor, there were no new learnings apart from getting to know Anthony Bolton better.
January 13, 2021
Good book for analysts but not so for beginners
There were some good points on understanding the market behaviours but major of the book covers activities of fund manager and research of their analysts.
There were some good points on understanding the market behaviours but major of the book covers activities of fund manager and research of their analysts.
May 15, 2022
Muy buen libro, fácil de entender, se debe tener conceptos basicos de finanzas como ratios financieros y similares.Aquellos que desean entrar a invertir les será de mucha utilidad ya que da tips muy digeribles y aplicables.Gran admirador de Warren Buffet, Ben, Charlie Munger, etc.
July 11, 2017
Interesting memoir of a an excellent fund manager
February 15, 2020
A look back on the career of a storied money manager
A storied money manager gives you a first hand account of his career. Worth reading if interested in portfolio management
A storied money manager gives you a first hand account of his career. Worth reading if interested in portfolio management
April 23, 2021
A masterclass from the master himself. Insightful details and tricks that only experience can bring is shared by Anthony Bolton.
February 9, 2022
Should have been titled “You too can beat the market if you have unlimited resources for analysis and can personally talk to management”
June 11, 2022
One of the best book on value investing I've read.
May 15, 2024
เนื้อหาอ่านแล้วสนุกดี ผู้เขียนได้เขียนเล่าได้กระชับ เคสตัวอย่างที่เขายกตัวอย่างมาสามารถอธิบายถึงหลักการการลงทุนของเขาได้ชัดเจน
October 12, 2025
Probably my second favourite author on equity selection. Loved the example-driven structure and insight on technical analysis was a real eye opener.
June 30, 2012
Anthony Bolton is a celebrated investment fund manager who has recently apologised for the recent heavy losses on his Fidelity China Special Situations Fund, which he runs from Hong Kong. However, he is still a legendary figure in the investment world with 28 years running the hugely successful Fidelity Special Situations Fund and has been given the rubric “God of Stocks” by Chinese tabloids.
Investing Against the Tide passes on much of the wisdom he has accumulated during 35 years in the industry, most of which he spent as a contrarian investor who swims against the tide. He comes across as an emotionally controlled man with moderate views and a realistically optimistic sense of perspective on the current financial scene and global economic situation - the opposite of today's popular image of the investment manager as a cocaine fuelled, gluttonous spiv merchant.
Non financial readers will like the structure of the book which is a series of tightly written, short chapters, each prefaced with a pertinent insight such as “never become emotionally attached to a holding” and “the heart of my approach has been buying recovery or turnaround stocks on attractive valuations”. Bolton reveals the secrets of how to pick stocks, consider companies for investment, and run a successful portfolio of investments.
The list of tips is comprehensive to say the least: think in terms of conviction rather than share price targets; don’t try to make money back the way you lost it; consider company fundamentals; market perception is reality; make incremental moves when constructing a portfolio; and buy cheaply valued recovery shares.
A fascinating penultimate chapter sees Bolton portray the City of London in the 1970s as a old boy's network with long, boozy lunches, manual trading, desk calculators run from mains electricity, limited research and little performance measurement. This is in stark contrast to today's information rich (some would say overloaded), ultra high-tech trading environment, where computers rule and robots do most of the trading.
Bolton concludes the book with his opinions and observations on the latest hot topics, including Stamp Duty (there should be a level playing field or it should be abolished); private equity (the increase in business is leading to a brain drain from listed companies and the long term shrinkage of the investment universe); hedge funds (he has nothing against them per se, but there will be future performance issues and more “blow-ups”); shareholder activism (he supports the one-share, one vote principle but is concerned about the influence of short term investors); and regulation following the current banking crisis (it should be more globally co-ordinated).
For those with virtually no free time, a handy appendix outlines each of the various lessons from each chapter in single line.
This is a highly readable and revealing account from a top performing fund manager and investment guru which will appeal to the amateur investor and professional alike.
Investing Against the Tide passes on much of the wisdom he has accumulated during 35 years in the industry, most of which he spent as a contrarian investor who swims against the tide. He comes across as an emotionally controlled man with moderate views and a realistically optimistic sense of perspective on the current financial scene and global economic situation - the opposite of today's popular image of the investment manager as a cocaine fuelled, gluttonous spiv merchant.
Non financial readers will like the structure of the book which is a series of tightly written, short chapters, each prefaced with a pertinent insight such as “never become emotionally attached to a holding” and “the heart of my approach has been buying recovery or turnaround stocks on attractive valuations”. Bolton reveals the secrets of how to pick stocks, consider companies for investment, and run a successful portfolio of investments.
The list of tips is comprehensive to say the least: think in terms of conviction rather than share price targets; don’t try to make money back the way you lost it; consider company fundamentals; market perception is reality; make incremental moves when constructing a portfolio; and buy cheaply valued recovery shares.
A fascinating penultimate chapter sees Bolton portray the City of London in the 1970s as a old boy's network with long, boozy lunches, manual trading, desk calculators run from mains electricity, limited research and little performance measurement. This is in stark contrast to today's information rich (some would say overloaded), ultra high-tech trading environment, where computers rule and robots do most of the trading.
Bolton concludes the book with his opinions and observations on the latest hot topics, including Stamp Duty (there should be a level playing field or it should be abolished); private equity (the increase in business is leading to a brain drain from listed companies and the long term shrinkage of the investment universe); hedge funds (he has nothing against them per se, but there will be future performance issues and more “blow-ups”); shareholder activism (he supports the one-share, one vote principle but is concerned about the influence of short term investors); and regulation following the current banking crisis (it should be more globally co-ordinated).
For those with virtually no free time, a handy appendix outlines each of the various lessons from each chapter in single line.
This is a highly readable and revealing account from a top performing fund manager and investment guru which will appeal to the amateur investor and professional alike.
December 4, 2009
Another excellent read on money management. Bolton's style is value-oriented yet acknowledges that unlike private investment companies like Berkshire, mutual/hedge funds are measured against the market -- and his style and analytical techniques -- fundamentals with a technical overlay -- reflects this. A few specific comments reflect his bias to fundamental stock picking -- e.g. he finds it easier to manage macro risk via stock selection, rather than blunter instruments. Also, he doesn't really keep active personal views of macroeconomics but prefers to look at how actual numbers compare to consensus; he saves his strong contrarian views for individual stocks.
It's written very concisely, in 21 short chapters that are barely a few pages each. But each chapter is dense with thought, and there are hardly any superfluous paragraphs -- quite befitting a fund manager of his reputation.
It's written very concisely, in 21 short chapters that are barely a few pages each. But each chapter is dense with thought, and there are hardly any superfluous paragraphs -- quite befitting a fund manager of his reputation.
November 4, 2010
I can feel the sincerity of Anothony Bolton in this book. He is really sharing his experience both success and failed ones with a simple and easy reading English.
There is full of new things to me. While I am trying on Z score, he told me that it is H score.
While I am considering Quant investment, he used techncial analysis as a cross check to fundamental views.
Its easy to talk then do, and he did it for so many years.
By the way, the sideline to me is the environment he was working at. Oh, the market was not that mature in the early days. Trend is important for investment, he said in the book that he got this chance. Open our eyes, the new trend is in Asia where we live.
More practice and thinking after reading his book,
There is full of new things to me. While I am trying on Z score, he told me that it is H score.
While I am considering Quant investment, he used techncial analysis as a cross check to fundamental views.
Its easy to talk then do, and he did it for so many years.
By the way, the sideline to me is the environment he was working at. Oh, the market was not that mature in the early days. Trend is important for investment, he said in the book that he got this chance. Open our eyes, the new trend is in Asia where we live.
More practice and thinking after reading his book,
March 9, 2014
I thought the lessons revealed in this book were quite unremarkable. makes one wonder how much of his success is luck vs. skill.
August 10, 2014
An excellent and concise read from one of the best long only fund managers
Well structure and advice giving.
Well structure and advice giving.
May 11, 2009
good insights about fund management
August 3, 2014
Interesting read about 'some memorable company meetings'
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