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Climate Models Fail
Climate Models Fail exposes the disturbing fact that climate models being used by the IPCC for their 5th Assessment Report have very little practical value because they cannot simulate critical variables of interest to the public and policymakers. Using easy-to-read graphs, this book compares data (surface temperature, precipitation, and sea ice area) with the computer model simulations. It is very easy to see that the model outputs bear little relationship to the data. In other words, climate models create imaginary climates in virtual worlds that exhibit no similarities to the climate of the world in which we live.
This book was prepared for readers without scientific backgrounds. The terms used by scientists are explained and non-technical “translations” are provided. Introductory sections present basics. There are also numerous hyperlinks to additional background information. The book is well illustrated, with more than 250 color-coded graphs and maps. It is an excellent introduction to global warming and climate change for people who are not well-versed yet want to learn more.
Climate scientists created computer models to determine whether anthropogenic greenhouse gases and other manmade factors could have caused the slight global warming of the past 150 years. In their virtual worlds, the answer is yes — anthropogenic greenhouse gases were the primary cause of the warming in those digital worlds. But, because the modeled worlds differ greatly from Earth, and because the models cannot simulate the natural ocean-atmosphere processes that cause or stop global warming, climate models cannot be used to attribute global warming to human-induced factors.
To support this, numerous peer-reviewed scientific studies are very critical of the climate models. They point to a multitude of improper simulations of temperature, precipitation, volcanic eruptions, sea ice, and natural ocean-atmosphere processes like associated with El Niños, La Niñas and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. An entire chapter discusses examples of those peer-reviewed papers. They expose climate model failures to accurately simulate (hindcast) the processes and metrics crucial to understanding past climate change…and they suggest (some clearly state) that climate models have no value for telling us anything about how climate may change in the future.
Model-data comparisons make up the bulk of this book. Surface temperature, precipitation, and sea ice area data are available to the public in easy-to-use formats via the web, as are the climate model outputs. Climate models show no skill at being able to simulate global surface temperatures since 1880. In recent decades, they drastically overestimated the warming on two continents, and they have extreme difficulty with regional temperatures. Climate models show no skill at being able to simulate sea surface temperatures or coupled-ocean atmosphere processes. Climate models can’t simulate precipitation, and they totally miss the mark with sea ice. At the ends of many model-data comparison chapters, the research papers that are critical of climate models are once again referenced. This supports the model-data presentations and allows readers to refer to the graphs so that they will have a better understanding of the importance of the model failings discussed in the papers.
Interest in global warming was renewed with the cessation of warming. This book includes sections showing how the surface temperatures of ocean basins and regional land areas are behaving during this warming plateau — and which two ocean basins are responsible for it.
Climate Models Fail clearly shows that climate models have little value for the public and policymakers because their number-crunched virtual worlds do not come close to simulating the real world we inhabit.
This book was prepared for readers without scientific backgrounds. The terms used by scientists are explained and non-technical “translations” are provided. Introductory sections present basics. There are also numerous hyperlinks to additional background information. The book is well illustrated, with more than 250 color-coded graphs and maps. It is an excellent introduction to global warming and climate change for people who are not well-versed yet want to learn more.
Climate scientists created computer models to determine whether anthropogenic greenhouse gases and other manmade factors could have caused the slight global warming of the past 150 years. In their virtual worlds, the answer is yes — anthropogenic greenhouse gases were the primary cause of the warming in those digital worlds. But, because the modeled worlds differ greatly from Earth, and because the models cannot simulate the natural ocean-atmosphere processes that cause or stop global warming, climate models cannot be used to attribute global warming to human-induced factors.
To support this, numerous peer-reviewed scientific studies are very critical of the climate models. They point to a multitude of improper simulations of temperature, precipitation, volcanic eruptions, sea ice, and natural ocean-atmosphere processes like associated with El Niños, La Niñas and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. An entire chapter discusses examples of those peer-reviewed papers. They expose climate model failures to accurately simulate (hindcast) the processes and metrics crucial to understanding past climate change…and they suggest (some clearly state) that climate models have no value for telling us anything about how climate may change in the future.
Model-data comparisons make up the bulk of this book. Surface temperature, precipitation, and sea ice area data are available to the public in easy-to-use formats via the web, as are the climate model outputs. Climate models show no skill at being able to simulate global surface temperatures since 1880. In recent decades, they drastically overestimated the warming on two continents, and they have extreme difficulty with regional temperatures. Climate models show no skill at being able to simulate sea surface temperatures or coupled-ocean atmosphere processes. Climate models can’t simulate precipitation, and they totally miss the mark with sea ice. At the ends of many model-data comparison chapters, the research papers that are critical of climate models are once again referenced. This supports the model-data presentations and allows readers to refer to the graphs so that they will have a better understanding of the importance of the model failings discussed in the papers.
Interest in global warming was renewed with the cessation of warming. This book includes sections showing how the surface temperatures of ocean basins and regional land areas are behaving during this warming plateau — and which two ocean basins are responsible for it.
Climate Models Fail clearly shows that climate models have little value for the public and policymakers because their number-crunched virtual worlds do not come close to simulating the real world we inhabit.
478 pages, Kindle Edition
First published September 23, 2013
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