What do you think?
Rate this book
巨變第二天：新興民主的得失與選擇
很長一段時間裏，對政治發展的分析聚焦於民主轉型的動力，定格於轉型完成的時刻。許多人似乎相信，「民主轉型」意味着政治發展劃上一個美好的句號。
然而，在「歷史的終結」處，是另一段歷史的開始。轉型國家有可能走向民主穩固，也有可能走向民主倒退和崩潰，甚至可能走向戰火紛飛。「句號」並非真的句號，而是意味深長的省略號，對這個省略號，我們所知甚少。
本書在20世紀末、21世紀初的時間框架中分析新興民主國家轉型後的發展境況，從民主鞏固、經濟發展、暴力衝突、國家能力等維度，全景式呈現「巨變第二天」各國分叉的道路，並挖掘這種分叉背後的原因。歷史常常詛咒未來，而觀念驅動的選擇則是每個社會自救於轉型泥沼的一根細線。
然而，在「歷史的終結」處，是另一段歷史的開始。轉型國家有可能走向民主穩固，也有可能走向民主倒退和崩潰，甚至可能走向戰火紛飛。「句號」並非真的句號，而是意味深長的省略號，對這個省略號，我們所知甚少。
本書在20世紀末、21世紀初的時間框架中分析新興民主國家轉型後的發展境況，從民主鞏固、經濟發展、暴力衝突、國家能力等維度，全景式呈現「巨變第二天」各國分叉的道路，並挖掘這種分叉背後的原因。歷史常常詛咒未來，而觀念驅動的選擇則是每個社會自救於轉型泥沼的一根細線。
572 pages, Hardcover
Published June 1, 2023
3 people are currently reading
37 people want to read
About the author
刘瑜
18 books47 followers刘瑜，女，1975年12月出生，博士，清华大学人文社会科学学院政治学系副教授，女。学者，作家，诗人，网名“Drunkpiano”，“醉钢琴”，网络写手。写小说，随笔，政论。生于1975年12月。本科毕业于中国人民大学，2006年美国哥伦比亚大学政治学博士，哈佛大学博士后，现为清华大学人文社科学院政治系副教授。《民主的细节：当代美国政治观察》，上海三联书店出版社2009年版，另有学术随笔和时政评论若干，散见于《南方周末》、《财经》、《新周刊》、《南方人物周刊》、《东方瞭望周刊》等刊物。
Ratings & Reviews
Friends & Following
Create a free account to discover what your friends think of this book!
Community Reviews
Displaying 1 - 2 of 2 reviews
June 5, 2024
其实是两部分组成，一部分是民主转型国家的定量分析，这部分比较有意思的是用数据库和计量模型来的定量说明问题，我之前关注政治学科较少，这次也欣喜地发现该学科引入了更科学和现代的工具，不再是空对空；第二部分将两种民主的对比和选择，采用传统的案例分析。跟我想象的有点不一样，但依然推荐。
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
January 25, 2026
I felt very tired when I was about to finish reading. It was a big book of more than 500 pages, all in tiny regular script, and it was a traditional Chinese book. I was thankful that it was not in vertical format. I was talking about Qian Mu's two books "Outline of National History"... It was tiring for my eyes.
It was more tiring for my heart. For someone who grew up in a land with a 2,000-year authoritarian history, if you want to "remotely" cultivate your understanding of democratic society, you need to actively do too much reading and summarizing, and even try to imagine abstractly. Not to mention the high time cost, the most troublesome thing is not knowing where to start. Unlike people who have been in it since childhood, they have unlimited opportunities to experience it in person.
On the other hand, people in a democratic society may find it difficult to understand the various unique concepts of people in this land of the "Qin system" that has lasted for 2,000 years. This was deeply felt in my exchanges with them.
The book is divided into two parts. The first half is like an academic paper, with various data analysis and comparisons. If you don't skip the long paragraphs of descriptive text related to the charts, it will be very boring; the second half is wonderful, and it cannot be published in the mainland because of the large amount of content in it. The author doesn't need to deliberately insinuate, her full expression of personal opinions is enough to make readers feel that something is wrong. Especially in the last chapter, the text with a large amount of information expresses her clear position with an attitude of admonition and warning... Well, Professor Liu, aren't you afraid of being banned or punished later like Lao Dongyan from the same school?
It was more tiring for my heart. For someone who grew up in a land with a 2,000-year authoritarian history, if you want to "remotely" cultivate your understanding of democratic society, you need to actively do too much reading and summarizing, and even try to imagine abstractly. Not to mention the high time cost, the most troublesome thing is not knowing where to start. Unlike people who have been in it since childhood, they have unlimited opportunities to experience it in person.
On the other hand, people in a democratic society may find it difficult to understand the various unique concepts of people in this land of the "Qin system" that has lasted for 2,000 years. This was deeply felt in my exchanges with them.
The book is divided into two parts. The first half is like an academic paper, with various data analysis and comparisons. If you don't skip the long paragraphs of descriptive text related to the charts, it will be very boring; the second half is wonderful, and it cannot be published in the mainland because of the large amount of content in it. The author doesn't need to deliberately insinuate, her full expression of personal opinions is enough to make readers feel that something is wrong. Especially in the last chapter, the text with a large amount of information expresses her clear position with an attitude of admonition and warning... Well, Professor Liu, aren't you afraid of being banned or punished later like Lao Dongyan from the same school?
Displaying 1 - 2 of 2 reviews