Overheated: The Human Cost of Climate Change

by Andrew T. Guzman

Deniers of climate change sometimes quip that claims about global warming are more about political science than climate science. They are wrong on the science, but may be right with respect to its political implications. A hotter world, writes Andrew Guzman, will bring unprecedented migrations, famine, war, and disease. It will be a social and political disaster of the first order.In Overheated, Guzman takes climate change out of the realm of scientific abstraction to explore its real-world consequences. He writes not as a scientist, but as an authority on international law and economics. He takes as his starting point a fairly optimistic outcome in the range predicted by a 2 degree Celsius increase in average global temperatures. Even this modest rise would lead to catastrophic environmental and social problems. Already we can see how it will The ten warmest years since 1880 have all occurred since 1998, and one estimate of the annual global death toll caused by climate change is now 300,000. That number might rise to 500,000 by 2030. He shows in vivid detail how climate change is already playing out in the real world. Rising seas will swamp island nations like Maldives; coastal food-producing regions in Bangladesh will be flooded; and millions will be forced to migrate into cities or possibly "climate-refugee camps." Even as seas rise, melting glaciers in the Andes and the Himalayas will deprive millions upon millions of people of fresh water, threatening major cities and further straining food production. Prolonged droughts in the Sahel region of Africa have already helped produce mass violence in Darfur. Clear, cogent, and compelling, Overheated shifts the discussion on climate change toward its devastating impact on human societies. Two degrees Celsius seems such a minor change. Yet it will change everything.

Genres: Climate Change, Science, Nonfiction, Environment, Sustainability

280 pages, Kindle Edition

First published January 1, 2013

About the author

Andrew Guzman is Professor of Law, Director of the Advanced Law Degree Programs, and Associate Dean for International and Executive Education at Berkeley Law School, University of California, Berkeley. Professor Guzman holds a J.D. and Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University. He has written extensively on international trade, international regulatory matters, foreign direct investment and public international law. He is the author of Overheated: The Human Cost of Climate Change, How International Law Works both from Oxford University Press and International Trade Law from Wolters Kluwer.
Professor Guzman served as editor for the Research Handbook In International Economic Law, published by Edward Elgar Press and Regulation and Competition in the Global Economy: Cooperation, Comity, and Competition Policy, published by Oxford University Press. Professor Guzman is a member of the Board of Editors of several journals including the Journal of International Economic Law and the International Review of Law and Economics. He is also a member of the Academic Council of the Institute for Transnational Arbitration and has served as an international arbitrator.

Reviews

[Andrew Guzman · Rating 5 out of 5]

“Overheated provides a lucid vision of the catastrophic consequences we will face if we fail to transition away from a fossil fuel-based economy. What gives the book power is the perspective it provides, of a legal scholar who initially viewed climate change as an interesting topic for academic research, to a passionate advocate for tackling the greatest threat human civilization has yet faced. If you care about the future of our planet, read this book.”

Michael E. Mann, Director of Penn State Earth System Science Center and Author of The Hockey Stick And The Climate Wars

“Andrew Guzman offers a concise and useful over view of the kind of problems a heating world will encounter—indeed, already is encountering. There’s nothing alarmist here—just straight forwardly realistic, and hence all the scarier.”

Bill McKibben, Author of Earth: Making A Life On A Tough New Planet

[Deirdre · Rating 5 out of 5]

An important and comprehensive look at what we are and will continue to face.

[J.G. Follansbee · Rating 3 out of 5]

Climate change is one of the most difficult subjects to tackle, and I admire any writer who attempts it. Though the reality of climate change is not in doubt—repeat, NOT in doubt—so much of its impact is speculative. Scientists can predict the rise of sea levels, the melting of Arctic and Antarctic ice, more powerful hurricanes, and so on, but no one can say with certainty how these will affect humanity in any detail.

In Overheated: The Human Cost of Climate Change, Andrew Guzman takes his best shot. The University of California, Berkeley law professor tries to show how global warming will change the lives of practically everyone on the planet. Clearly worried about the power of denialists, led by President Donald Trump (though the book was written before his election), he answers each of the counter-arguments with unassailable rigor. If this were an argument before a judge and jury, he’d win going away.

Unfortunately, that’s the problem with this 2013 book, and many books like it. With a couple of notable exceptions, he offers few anecdotes or detailed speculations on climate change effects you and I might experience. The best story concerns the Chacaltaya Glacier, which disappeared from a Bolivian mountain in 2009. He also offers an alarming scenario involving disputes over water between two nuclear powers: India and Pakistan. Beyond these, however, much of the future impact of warming is theoretical. Writing about the potential for water wars, he says, “[C]limate change threatens to magnify existing risks, perhaps making the difference between an uncomfortable peace and a shooting war.” It’s hard for average folks to get excited about these unseen margins.

Guzman is following his training as a lawyer: Rely on evidence and logic to make your case. For climate change, however, arguing the science hasn’t worked. Too many people believe President Trump’s lie that climate change is a hoax perpetrated by the Chinese. At least, they set it aside and voted for him anyway. The truth isn’t powerful enough to overcome a blatantly false assertion.

Overheated reinforces my belief that fiction is a better way to reach the hearts of people who don’t understand climate change, distrust science and scientists, or prefer to worry about the impacts later. To challenge these mistakes, I want to answer the question, what will life be like when climate change really takes hold in ten, fifty, or a hundred years? Further, I want to explore the impacts on human relationships and values, something climate science is ill-equipped to discuss. Overheated and similar non-fiction books can list the facts of climate change, but right now, only fiction can speculate on the emotional and social consequences.

[Dan Needles · Rating 4 out of 5]

For those who want to know some of the impacts of global warming, this is a good book. Like many books of this genre it is more a warning and we need to stop everything now book - so not terribly realistic. That said, it does a good job of exploring the various impacts that we will see in our lifetime as well as in centuries to come and it did a great job of painting that picture. So I found other books to fill in the adaptation and realistic response gaps that were not provided for in this book.

< VENT ON >My only grievance is like many books of this genre, they got wrapped around the oil agenda axle (as designed). That is, the oil industry always knew the problem was real as shown in internal memos. Their only purpose in arguing was to stall. Who can resist pounding an idiot who hasn't bothered to check their facts? But by doing so you have engaged and stalled movement. And that was why the strategy was so successful and stalled things a decade as well as convinced some idiots. So when she engaged the argument in the books, she actually fell lock and step with what the oil industry wanted... as I am doing here bringing this all up - as I said a brilliant strategy built out of nothing. Anyway ... < VENT OFF>

Another aside this book is from a more personal angle as he talks to his concerns about his daughter in the coming years. Also, perhaps because of this, it is a bit more doom and gloom than most and includes a letter to his daughter for 10 years later - albeit I found this a tad narsisitic as the letter seemed more directed to him - still a great idea.

All that said, it is still a good book to give context to the issues that face us and why moving north State side might be a good idea.

[Steffie Schwartz · Rating 5 out of 5]

An Empowering Book With Focus On The Consequences Humans Will Face In The Era Of Climate Change

Overheated paints a picture of real threats to our lives and the consequences for real families in the US and around world. Guzman brings the climate change debate and its consequences home.

Overheated is aimed at the reader who wants to understand the consequence that humans face in the era of global warming. Humans will be displaced, food and water shortages will trigger conflicts or wars, famine, and humanitarian crisis. All these results are neither remote nor consequences only for countries far away from our sheltered homes. As an example, we can expect massive hurricanes and drought occurring in the U.S.

Despite the book's grim outlook on climate change, it encourages us to act and to demand political action from politicians and regulators. After presenting a series of chilling realities, Guzman explains in clear and simple terms what has to be done. Although, a warmer world is now inevitable, we still have the opportunity to act and make things better.

Overheated is a truly inspiring and empowering book that provides a positive agenda in the face of climate change. Andrew Guzman has changed my perspective on climate change.

[Terry · Rating 4 out of 5]

A good summary among many of the all the costs to us and the environment as we continue to delay on making necessary changes.

Some miscel notes
p. note
106 glacier snow melt, water for hydro will disappear;
Andean glaciers expected gone by 2040
130 Russia/Canada agri benefits from CC? However drought 2010-11 wheat prices doubled b/c reduced russian output

137 drought in Sudan, led to conflict between Black Farmers and Arab nomads
138 conflict spreads to Chad where farmers and other non-arabs fled from genocide
142 water supply low in Middle East
145 Turkey dams Tigris and Euphra rivers
162 India/Pakistan - water needs; nuclear plowers
165 Nigeria exports oil to US @ level == to Saudia Arabia;; 80% of Nigeria wealth is oil in South; Muslim in North threaten our supply
172 Chapt 6; CC & Health!
181 Killer pandemics human 2 human; animal 2 human;, hurricanes;
wars and CC are similarly deadly catalysts for pandemics:
human movement, close contact; poor health resources; stressed bodies

[Denny · Rating 5 out of 5]

New acronym for me: GHG (GreenHouse Gases).

For the normal person concerned about climate change. This is a global problem requiring national and international actions. Reduction in GHG necessary, yesterday.

Example of human impact, the contradictory too much and too little water. Smaller natural reserves (glaciers, ice caps) are reducing the amount of fresh water available each year for drinking, cooking, bathing, cleaning, etc. Meanwhile, rising sea water levels will soon cover parts of low lying countries (Bangladesh) and/or completely submerge other nations (Maldives).



Author's two action now recommendations are a carbon tax and/or cap-and-trade. Either requires effected parties to not decide solely on short-term impacts. Dr. Guzman chooses c&p because it's more complex and less transparent.

[Rosebud · Rating 4 out of 5]

This is a must read for every human, especially those with children and grandchildren. It is a geography/history lesson about human conflicts around the globe, and also a harbinger of what is to come if we don't address the warming of the climate and its devastating consequences. It is often said that there is a fine line between civilized behavior and chaotic behavior. This book demonstrates how easily that balance can he thrown off through the loss of water and food that we can potentially face in as few as ten years and beyond.

He explains why the cost of inaction is too high, not for economic reasons, but for the threat to life and out continued existence.

[Roxanne · Rating 4 out of 5]

This book is about climate change and we need to get our head out of the sand and start doing something about it. It is already too late now. The climate science says we will have a hotter world and will bring about unpredented migrations, famine, war and disease. Some island nations are already trying to find new countries to move to when their islands vanish. All over the world these changes are happening and people are fighting over water, land and food.

[Yi-hsin Lin · Rating 3 out of 5]

A very readable overview of the potential impact of climate change, though on a pretty high level. The book is definitely targeted to people who do not typically read about climate change; if you're generally aware of the issues you probably won't find a lot of new information in this book.

The writing was somewhat uneven. The author often tries to make his point through extended analogies when a clear explanation of the issue would have been sufficient and probably easier to understand.

[Grant · Rating 5 out of 5]

If you read one book specifically on climate, make it this one.