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The first volume of Donald Kagan's acclaimed four-volume history of the Peloponnesian War offers a new evaluation of the origins and causes of the conflict, based on evidence produced by modern scholarship and on a careful reconsideration of the ancient texts. He focuses his study on the question: Was the war inevitable, or could it have been avoided?
Kagan takes issue with Thucydides' view that the war was inevitable, that the rise of the Athenian Empire in a world with an existing rival power made a clash between the two a certainty. Asserting instead that the origin of the war "cannot, without serious distortion, be treated in isolation from the internal history of the states involved," Kagan traces the connections between domestic politics, constitutional organization, and foreign affairs. He further examines the evidence to see what decisions were made that led to war, at each point asking whether a different decision would have been possible.
439 pages, Kindle Edition
First published January 1, 1969
"Thucydides stood on the edge of philosophy."
"His work is not intended only for the present, but as a "possession forever." Assuming the essential stability of human nature in the political realm, he tried to establish what amount almost to laws of political behavior... Thucydides wanted to describe and analyze the impersonal forces that operate in human society. A future Themistocles or a Pericles would have the wisdom to use the laws or principles that emerge from that analysis to guide his political actions."
Herodotus loves the phenomena in themselves; he is chiefly concerned with composing an interesting and honest narrative. He also wants to suggest some general truths, but that purpose is secondary. Thucydides has a different purpose. The phenomena and the narrative are not ends in themselves, but means whereby the historian can illustrate general truths.
Deterrence requires a combination of power, the will to use it, and the assessment of these by the potential aggressor. Moreover, deterrence is a product of those factors and not a sum. If any one of them is zero, deterrence fails.
— Henry A. Kissinger, 1960
To what extent the Cold War mentality created "Thucydides trap", through a Cold War interpretation of Thucydides, put forward by Donald Kagan and Graham Allison and others, whose whole validity lies in the fact that it went through the savoir game of power-truth (read: academic publishing) because of the financial interest (e.g. "Defense budget") it could leverage?
Or, in plain English, was the "Thucydides trap" just a glorified military-industrialfinancial complex thirst trap for US congress? [2]
是故智者之虑,必杂于利害,杂于利而务可信也,杂于害而患可解也。
Hence the sage must weight both the benefit and the risk in his consideration simultaneously. The outlook of the benefit will motivate people to push things forward. The prediction of possible risks will help people to diffuse it.
— Sun Tzu the Art of War (512 BCE)