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290 pages, Hardcover
Published May 14, 2024
Scenario 1 ... Collapse Avoidance (This scenario is fictionalized in Kim Stanley Robinson's novels New York 2140 and The Ministry for the Future.)In the above listing I have not included the author's detailed description of the four scenarios, however I thought his listing of other works of literature which describe the scenarios to be of particular interest so I have included them. (I have included the author's detailed descriptions of the scenarios in the "Excerpts" section of this review.)
Scenario 2 ... Collapse/Rebirth (Emily St. John Mandel's Station Eleven and Suzanne Collins's The Hunger Games unfold in this scenario.)
Scenario 3 ... Collapse/Survival scenario. (This is the setting of Octavia Butler's Parable of the Sower and Cormac McCarthy's The Road.)
Scenario 4 ... Collapsed Extinction (Adam McKay's film Don't Look Up and Alan Weisman's imaginative nonfiction book The World Without Us are portrayals of this scenario.)
...to live now as we think human beings should live, in defiance of all that is bad around us, is itself a marvelous victory. (p.81)So the position of the book is that we should advocate for earth and climate friendly changes while knowing it will most likely be in vain as we head toward the end of civilization as we know it. But it won't be the first time it seemed as though the world was ending as the author reminds the reader of previous times in history when certain people experienced what they perceived to be the end of the world as they knew it—Jews after destruction of the temple, fall of the Roman Empire, genocide of American Indians, and Africans removed by slavers. The world as we know it will also change, but we should continue to strive to mitigate the harshness of change where possible, and we should be at peace with the prospect that the population of humanity may be reduced but there is hope that humanity in some form can survive.
Melting polar ice caps leading to weather disruption, sea level rise, and coastal flooding.This imaginative work has, unfortunately, been easier than we might have expected, because we see many signs of this turbulence already in motion. (p.179-180)
Rapid climate disruption leading to extinctions, crop failures, and far-reaching economic impacts.
Flooding, wildfires, extreme weather leading to mass migrations.
White supremacist and nativist attacks on immigrants and minorities, with conspiratorial falsehoods and stupidities spread by demagogues seeking power.
Volatile stock markets, runs on banks, credit and bank defaults, currency failures.
Cascading failures of political leaders, leading to cascading failures of public institutions.
Mass and social media spreading mass deception leading to mass delusion leading to mass hysteria.
Authoritarian regimes preying on fear and resentment, eventually replacing or compromising democracies.
Food shortages. Water shortages. Supply chain disruptions. Decline in both health and health care, and increases in violence. Electric grids and internet crashes due to weather events or terrorist action.