World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century

by Dmitri Alperovitch, Garrett M. Graff

NATIONAL BESTSELLER

A leading national security expert, who publicly predicted Vladimir Putin's intention to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine months before it took place, lays out the case for why China's Xi Jinping is preparing to conquer Taiwan in the coming years and the dire stakes for America and the whole world if he is not deterred.

In World on the Brink, security expert Dmitri Alperovitch makes the case that we are already in the midst of Cold War II, with China, and that Taiwan is the perilous strategic flashpoint of this new conflict that risks triggering a devastating war between major nuclear powers in a similar role that West Berlin nearly played during Cold War I.

Laying out the comprehensive strategy to deter war and maintain U.S. place as the world's leading superpower in the face of rising China, Alperovitch breaks down not only the significant weaknesses that can prevent China from surpassing the United States, but also the key policies that will enable America to maintain primacy even as China ramps up its efforts.

As Alperovitch explains, we must play to our strengths and address our weaknesses, using our leverage as the strongest nation on the planet to tactfully navigate the next Cold War. This sharp, timely book is the essential blueprint for doing just that.

Genres: China, Politics, Nonfiction, History, Audiobook, International Relations, Political Science

400 pages, Hardcover

First published April 30, 2024

About the author

Dmitri Alperovitch is a national bestselling author and an internationally recognized thought leader on geopolitics and national security and co-founder and executive chairman of Silverado Policy Accelerator, a think-tank focused on policy solutions in national security, trade and industrial security, and ecological and economic security.

He is also the co-founder of the leading cybersecurity company CrowdStrike.

Alperovitch serves on the Homeland Security Advisory Council of the Department of Homeland Security and as a founding board member of US Government's Cyber Safety Review Board, and has previously served as a special advisor to the Department of Defense. He has been named in Foreign Policy’s Top 100 Leading Global Thinkers and MIT Technology Review’s Top 35 Innovators Under 35. He is the host of Silverado's Geopolitics Decanted podcast.

Reviews

[Robert · Rating 5 out of 5]

Perhaps one of the best reads I’ve encountered on the subject. Author provides thorough arguments and explanations for the need to preserve the status quo of Taiwan which requires to mobilize lots of strength, willpower and determination. A must read for anyone interested in the most pressing implications of the geopolitical in the 21st century.

[Chad Manske · Rating 5 out of 5]

Get ready to buckle up for a thrilling ride through the complex landscape of global politics and technological warfare with Dmitri Alperovitch’s eye-opening book, “World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century.” Alperovitch, a renowned cybersecurity expert, takes readers on a gripping journey into the high-stakes competition between the United States and China, offering insights that are as enlightening as they are urgent. From the moment you crack open the book, you are immediately pulled into a world where every move on the geopolitical chessboard could have far-reaching consequences. Alperovitch’s writing is sharp, engaging, and accessible, making even the most complex concepts of cybersecurity and international relations digestible for readers of all backgrounds. With a blend of real-life examples, historical context, and expert analysis, he paints a vivid picture of the challenges facing America in its rivalry with China. A compelling aspect of “World on the Brink” is Alperovitch’s ability to connect the dots between cyber threats, economic warfare, and traditional military strategies. He argues persuasively that the United States must adopt a comprehensive approach to countering China’s growing influence, leveraging its technological prowess and strategic alliances to stay ahead in the global race for dominance. His insights are not only thought-provoking but also actionable, offering practical recommendations for policymakers, business leaders, and concerned citizens alike. What truly sets this book apart is Alperovitch’s passion for the subject matter. His sense of urgency is palpable on every page, driving home the importance of vigilance in an increasingly interconnected world. As you read through the book, you can’t help but feel a sense of responsibility to take action and help shape the future of America’s place in the world. With its gripping narrative, insightful analysis, and call to action, Dmitri Alperovitch’s book is a wake-up call to all who care about America’s role in shaping the twenty-first century. So, grab a copy, buckle up, and prepare to be enlightened and inspired.

[Ali · Rating 3 out of 5]

In the World on the Brink, Alperovitch argues that the US can address its China challenge with "deterrence". The analysis is based on the comparison of Putin's invasion of Ukraine to Jinping's predicted taking of Taiwan, along with an analogy to Cold War, where Taiwan is the new Berlin not only because of its geolocation with proximity to Philippines and Japan, but also, its being the epicenter of chips manufacturing. After giving a brief history of Russian and Chinese competition and power conflicts with the US, the authors propose a quadpod strategy based on enabling innovation, defending innovation, strengthening ties with allies, and avoiding distraction. In between giving a good survey of related literature, they explain military and nuclear strengths of both sides, possible war scenarios, fight over rare earth mineral resources, and current chips wars. There is also some name-dropping and branding (Silverado Policy Accelerator sounds like silver bullet of geopolitical strategy, sorry). This strategy still sounds much better than slapping tariffs all around. It is hard not to agree with the authors on creating dilemmas for Putin and JingPin to "delay, delay, delay" expansion of their borders and influence. But all this falls flat when you hear the US also wants to annex its neighbors. Interestingly authors missed to address this current chaos as possible deterrence tactics. In case I missed, they also didn't mention when and how this second Cold War would end. Unless there is a win-win in this race, what's the exit strategy for the World on the Brink?

[Roman · Rating 4 out of 5]

Interesting overview of the geopolitical situation from the founder of Crowdstrike. I am typically skeptical of the political reviewers, however I enjoyed the historical facts that shaped the relations between US, Taiwan, China, Russia.

[Charles Reed · Rating 4 out of 5]

86%

. This book really shines specifically because of the extremely critical analysis of the situation that is culminating with China. There is some light focus on Russia as well, but really the influential and critically perceived state of China is main focus here. China is such a big place that I don't think it's likely appropriate to generalize all of China because it's huge. If we look at a territorial state standpoint, I'm pretty sure that we're going to see the political standpoint shift. So while there's a centralized government, I think it's very likely that it's spread thin, especially when the Communist Party isn't directly associated with the government. And I do perceive China as a high growth area where it has a lot of different possibilities and potential for positive outcomes. And I've heard from people in China, I've seen mostly farmland, and the philosophy is good. So I'm just skeptical, but I'm always happy to look at critical analysis and different viewpoints, and this was really well thought out. I wouldn't mind an even longer book to go into further details about this subject. Thank you, Dimitri.

[Dennis Murphy · Rating 5 out of 5]

World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century by Dmitri Alperovitch is a good book which captures the current conventional wisdom across defense tech, compute-centric models of governance, China skeptics, and grand strategic deterrence scholars and practitioners. Its quite the book. The first half sets the stage to a new Cold War, one which has been talked about off and on for the better part of a decade. The second half focuses on four guidelines for victory, which have pithy phrases. Its an internationalist, tech-based, defense-based, approach to containment and deterrence of China with little tolerance for non-China, non-Tech, non-Allied objectives that could suck away much-needed political will and capital. I'd give it a go if you're interested in the direction of global affairs.

[Ahmed · Rating 4 out of 5]

"World on the Brink" offers a timely analysis of the U.S.-China rivalry, exploring economic, technological, and military dimensions. It also shows the geopolitical importance of maintaining an advantage for semiconductor chips and industry.

Alperovitch and Graff deliver balanced perspectives and actionable recommendations for policymakers.

While the book is rich in detail and depth, it occasionally delves into dense jargon, affecting its pace.

Overall, it’s an enlightening read for anyone interested in global power dynamics (especially between US and China) and strategic foresight.

[Nicholas Marshall · Rating 3 out of 5]

This could be a shorter book. I read it for a class. It is accessibly written, and I appreciated Alperovtich's selection of topics and imaginative predictions. By the middle and through to the end, however, the chapters became redundant.

[Vijay · Rating 4 out of 5]

Dmitri sums up many of the issues surrounding Cybersecurity, Trade, Taiwan among other things in clear language.

I hope US lawmakers are reading this book and calibrating their actions accordingly.

[Anton Korbut · Rating 4 out of 5]

Dmitri Alperovitch’s World on the Brink is a timely and incisive examination of the escalating tensions between the United States and China. Framing the competition as a second Cold War, the book argues that Taiwan represents the most critical flashpoint in this unfolding rivalry, much like Berlin during the first Cold War.

One of the book’s standout strengths is its detailed analysis of Taiwan’s and the USA’s military preparedness. Alperovitch provides a comprehensive look at the current state of readiness on both sides, shedding light on the strengths and vulnerabilities that could shape a potential conflict. The inclusion of a hypothetical Chinese invasion of Taiwan brings immediacy and gravity to the discussion, forcing readers to confront the real-world stakes of this geopolitical standoff.

Alperovitch also outlines a strategic framework aimed at leveraging America’s strengths—such as technological innovation, alliances, and economic leadership—while addressing vulnerabilities in cybersecurity and military readiness. However, as a successful entrepreneur, he does not shy away from promoting himself throughout the book. This self-promotion, while not entirely unexpected, can sometimes distract from the book’s main arguments.

The book’s analysis of China, while comprehensive, relies heavily on the work of well-known scholars like Chris Miller, Elizabeth Economy, Rush Doshi, and Kevin Rudd. While these are credible voices, the reliance on widely accepted analyses offers little in the way of fresh insights into China’s evolving strategies and ambitions. This conventional approach may leave readers familiar with China studies wanting more original perspectives.

Additionally, the heavy reliance on hypothetical scenarios, while engaging, may oversimplify the complexity of U.S.-China relations. The singular focus on Taiwan also risks sidelining other critical dimensions of the rivalry, such as economic interdependence or global governance.

Overall, World on the Brink offers a compelling and thought-provoking perspective on one of the most pressing geopolitical challenges of the 21st century. While its depth of analysis and relevance are commendable, the reliance on conventional sources, occasional detours into personal branding, and a narrow focus slightly detract from its impact.

[Robert Hasler · Rating 4 out of 5]

Alperovitch argues we are in Cold War II. The comparison is apt for the modern conflict with China is principally the same as our conflict with the Soviet Union in the previous century: two nuclear superpowers jockeying for global supremacy. Ultimately, the contest between our two nations is more practical than ideological. The question is this: who will write the rules for a new era of international order? Cold War I battlefields are now digital. Taiwan is a new Berlin.

Put simply, the author’s plan is to delay, delay, delay. The end of American strategy should be to make Xi of China wake up every day thinking an invasion of Taiwan imprudent. The way to do that is by leveraging more economic tools and resources like a NATO for market economies equipped with its own “Article 5” agreements to sanction aggressor states when one member falls victim to Chinese subterfuge.

It also requires saying no to regional distractions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Alperovitch is right in his analysis of Russia: a regional power whose threat to the United States is more imagined than real. The diplomatic goal with Russia (as it should be for Iran and North Korea too) is to persuade Russians to realize their prospects are better if they play ball in an Western-led rules-based order rather than becoming the vassal-state of China. This requires toning down domestic rhetoric against Russia and taking a realist position toward less-than-perfectly democratic regimes. American foreign policy leaders must admit that our preference for regime change in adversarial nations is too often unrealistic and offensive. We cannot make the good the enemy of the great with regard to foreign policy.

Perhaps if we do that, then we can navigate this new problem without stumbling into a hot war with China and come out stronger than ever.

[Chris Vernon · Rating 4 out of 5]

Been meaning to read this for a while, shouldn't have waited so long, it's good. As a non-American though it does come across, as overly pro-US. It’s an up to date study of the geopolitics of US and China, hinging on Taiwan. He describes, fairly convincingly that the US is now in a new Cold War with China suggesting the US should seek to delay China’s progress, especially in AI technology whilst the US doubles down.

[Dan Guido · Rating 5 out of 5]

"World on the Brink" offers a compelling new framework for understanding today's global landscape through the lens of US-China competition. The authors make a persuasive case for treating this rivalry as the defining challenge of our time, arguing that seemingly unrelated conflicts and policy decisions should be evaluated based on their impact on this central dynamic.

What sets this book apart is its clear-eyed assessment of China's ambitions and America's strategic options. The authors present concrete evidence of China's growing assertiveness, from military preparations to technological competition, while offering practical recommendations for maintaining US advantages in crucial domains like AI and semiconductors.

The authors' background in technology and security shines through in their detailed analysis of how emerging technologies will shape this rivalry. Their insights feel especially relevant given recent policy developments around AI and semiconductor controls (Biden's "AI Diffusion" rules).

While some might find the book's warnings about China's rise alarmist, recent events suggest its sense of urgency is warranted (e.g., China's recent construction of specialized amphibious assault barges at the Guangzhou Shipyard). This is essential reading for anyone seeking to understand the most consequential geopolitical relationship of our time.

[Priit Rohumaa · Rating 4 out of 5]

The author successfully predicted a year in advance that Russia would start a war against Ukraine. Now, he presents a rather compelling argument that Taiwan will be next.

[Kathie · Rating 5 out of 5]

So many aspects of concern in US - China relations/issues that the author raises. . . very enlightening - and thorough!

[Linnea · Rating 5 out of 5]

Really interesting, engaging and well-researched book; however, the author is clearly not familiar with the inner workings of the semiconductor industry. I enjoyed the read despite disagreeing with the author's conclusion.

[Robert · Rating 4 out of 5]

A truly thoughtful book written by an incredible thinker. I wish our leaders had this book on their nightstand.

[Miloš Prokop · Rating 5 out of 5]

A must to read book to better understand the dynamics of 21st century. Very well written.

[Asher · Rating 4 out of 5]

I'm finishing this book while taking breaks to run to a bomb shelter a few times a day.

[Mary · Rating 4 out of 5]

A detailed analysis of China's military and political history relative to its growing importance on the world stage, both from a position of threat to the modern-day power nations and its potential to annex Tawain and gain critical strategic geopolitical advantages. Interesting and a bit scary to consider our tenuous hold on world peace.

[Paul Anderson · Rating 4 out of 5]

Mainly an analysis of the likelihood of China invading Taiwan and what the U.S. should do about it. Some holes in the logic, but very good food for thought.

[Aaron · Rating 5 out of 5]

Outstanding book about what is at stake and what really matters in the USA relationship with China and how that dominos to other potential adversaries and allies alike.

[Dave · Rating 4 out of 5]

Cleverly creates a fictional scenario to launch the book, then provides a personal story to situate the reader to the author’s backstory. That’s the first third. The remainder of the book covers well-trodden ground of Taiwan, semi-conductors, arms production, and other contemporary issues plaguing Western militaries unprepared for future conflict with China. Recommended as an intro to geostrategic circumstances of the early 2020s but skip if you’re well-versed in contemporary military affairs.

[Popup-ch · Rating 3 out of 5]

How the US can win against China.

In short - convince Xi that 'today is not a good day to invade Taiwan' every day until China gets too old and decrepit.

Alperovitch focuses a lot on Taiwan, and insists that the current Taiwanese army is not fit for the purpose of defending against a Chinese invasion. An all-out US-China war would be disastrous for the whole world, and in order to avoid that, everyone need to agree that the status quo is better.

The US needs to focus on getting stronger, which includes getting more and better immigrants, as well as improving schooling for the native-born population. US must fight for a laws-based system, which right now there's a tendency to sidestep. For example, US has been blocking the WTO adjudicating courts, by not accepting any new judges, effectively gumming up the whole process.

At the same time, China is getting weaker, mostly, but not only, based on demographics. China's population is decreasing, and the working-age population is decreasing even faster.

There are several lessons to be learned from the war in Ukraine. One of the most important is that modern armies use ammunition and drones at an unsustainable rate. (Much faster than the defence establishment can build more.) Especially when it comes to drones, which are treated as consumables, and replaced at an almost-daily rate. That's fine if you're using COTS stuff from e.g. DJI, where the unit cost is in the high triple/digits, but not for the US-army's Raven, which costs USD250'000 each. The Western defence companies have focussed too much on high-status extreme tech, instead of pumping out consumables. Compare the simple AT-4 anti-tank RPG with the Javelin. The Javelin is much more advanced, but also costs more than 100 times more!

[Martin Petersen · Rating 5 out of 5]

This review originally appeared in the Cipher Brief: https://www.thecipherbrief.com/book-r...

In the best CIA Directorate of Intelligence tradecraft, the bottom line goes up front: World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the 21st Century is an important book that stands apart from much of the current writing (and posturing) on China by its lack of hype, a clear exploration of the challenge China poses, and practical and well considered policy options. Dmitri Alperovitch is former CTO of CrowdStrike, an advisor to the Department of Homeland Security, and a member of the U.S. government’s Cyber Safety Review Board. Garrett Graff wrote one of the most heart wrenching books on 911, The Only Plane in the Sky.

The book is in two sections but really three parts. The first is history, specifically of the US-China relationship and how we got into the situation we currently find ourselves. This history is important. I’ve back benched more than a few meetings where it was clear that the US side, despite its preparation, did not know the bilateral interactions going back to Kissinger as well as our Chinese interlocutors, who not surprisingly got more out of the meeting than we did.

The authors assert that we are in Cold War II. This has been debated in US national security circles, but Alperovitch and Graff state that regardless of what we choose to call it, China’s current leaders are approaching the competition with the US as a Cold War. They stress, however, that this Cold War is significantly different than the last one. China’s economic and integration into the global economy is just one difference.

More fundamental—and more threatening to US standing—is that while the Soviet Union focused on expanding its power by changing governments, China is striving to change the rules of the game that have existed since the end of WWII, rules based on Western democratic values. The authors quote Rob Joyce, the head of cybersecurity at the National Security Agency: “Russia is a hurricane. China is climate change.” Rush Doshi makes the same case in his book, The Long Game: China’s Grand Strategy to Displace American Order.

The authors lay out a strong case for supporting Taiwan and not just because of its importance in the design and manufacture of advanced microchips. They correctly see the security of Taiwan as a key to the security of Asia and to US credibility. They examine Putin’s thinking behind his invasion of the Ukraine and how Chinese President Xi could decide to invade Taiwan, even after observing the Western response to Russia’s aggression. They are not predicting this, but they make a strong case that leaders do talk themselves into bad decisions. I’ve long argued that a root cause of many intelligence failures is thinking that “it makes no sense for them to do that.” That is a sure indication you do not understand how the other fellow assesses the situation and his options.

The second part of the book is a scorecard of sorts. In two chapters the authors make the case that China is weaker than it appears and that we (and the West) are stronger than we seem. I think they are right about the challenges China faces and the difficulties it will have in dealing with them. Perhaps because I am an analyst and therefore the glass can only be half empty, I also suspect that China will find many work arounds, including sanctions on high end technology—the strategy National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan calls “small yard high fence.” For the same reason I am less sanguine about US strengths and how they will hold up over time. I hope I am wrong on both counts.

The third section and the second half of the book is something rare: an intelligent discussion of policy options. The authors argue that there are four requirements to meet the China challenge. They call the first step “Enable Innovation,” and semiconductors are the key. They point out that the center of gravity in cutting edge chip design and fabrication has moved from the US to Asia. They stress that some of this capability needs to return to American shores, and the US must do all it can to slow China’s gains in this area for they are significantly behind us at present. We also must stop being our own worst enemy as when in the late 1990s IBM tutored Huawei on management and operations. The attraction of the best minds through immigration is also necessary, and we need to have a “whole of government strategy” to foster investment in AI, biotech, aerospace, and green technology.

They call the second step “Defend Innovation.” Here the authors are especially critical of how the US procures its weapons. The Pentagon, they claim, has failed to assemble the mix of weapons necessary to fight “a peer adversary” like China. “Simply put, America has become addicted to exquisite expensive weapons platforms, manufactured in small numbers, while neglecting simpler and cheaper ones we would need in volume.” One need only look at the way the fighting in the Ukraine has evolved to see the saliency of this point. Hand-in-hand with this is doing a much better job of protecting intellectual property from Chinese cyber-attacks.

The third and fourth steps are “Say Yes to Our Friends” and “Say No to Distractions.” They make the point that everyone does about the necessity of building our alliances and supporting our allies when they are bullied or threatened by Beijing, whether militarily—like China’s aggressive actions in the South China Sea—or economically when China tries to punish our friends for actions Beijing objects to. To this end the authors propose a Treaty of Allied Market Economies (TAME) of European and Asian-Pacific open market economies, the “Article 5” of which “would trigger a combination of trade barriers, sanctions, and export controls….to equalize pressure and retaliate against any aggressor unfairly singling out a member of the alliance.” As for distractions, the authors state, “Most importantly of all, we must also reevaluate and view our engagement with Russia through the lens of countering China.” Russia is too big to ignore and we must identify our long-term interests and work toward them, they say.

The authors make a case that the United States lacks a strategy and a sense of urgency. Perhaps because I am an “old man,” I feel the same. In any case, in the upcoming election, regardless of who wins, there will be changes (perhaps wholesale) in the national security team and whoever those people are – they would do well to spend time reading this book and Graham Allison’s 2017 book Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap.

[Rick Malzyner · Rating 4 out of 5]

Well written and well researched. Goes deep into historical context for both Russia and China. Only complain is the overly-glorified and optimistic take on the United States and its capability and will to continue being heavily engaged in world affairs. Completely ignores American domestic issues like populism and wealth inequality (that would for sure affect future foreign policy). Clear that he wrote this book from the angle of the self-made immigrant billionaire who loves America.

[Daniel Fitzgerald · Rating 5 out of 5]

Great book. The author seemed very knowledgeable and I was happy to see highlights from other books I enjoyed such as "End of the World Is Just the Beginning", "Chip Wars", "Chinas Great Wall of Debt", and "The Kill Chain". I will likely recommend this book as a starting point to then deep dive on topics via those other books. I also enjoyed the author's proposed solutions to compete while avoiding war.

[Tyler Delhees · Rating 5 out of 5]

If you enjoy history and geopolitics and how technology influences both, this book is for you. It is written with an infectious passion and tremendous analysis of all of the connecting points between history, global politics, emerging technologies and current affairs. It is also quite optimistic about the future despite what the title might suggest.

[John Ellis · Rating 4 out of 5]

A Strategist's Playbook, But Not the Whole Picture: World on the Brink by Dmitri Alperovitch is a timely and well-written addition to the discussion of strategic competition between the United States and China. Drawing from his extensive background in intelligence and cyber security, Alperovitch provides a lucid assessment of the geopolitical tensions arising in this alleged "Cold War II" and lays out a four-step strategy to ensure American advantage through focus, innovation, deterrence, and alliances.

Clarity and operational discipline are the strongest points of the book. Alperovitch is offering a practical blueprint rather than an abstract theory. The first scenario of a Taiwan invasion is both terrifying and technically possible. His perceptions of cyberspace as a battlefield and an intelligence tool are especially compelling.

Its philosophical and cultural scope is where the book fails. Although it makes a distinction between the Chinese government and the Chinese people, it doesn't go into significant detail about other worldviews, such as the historical perspective of China, regional viewpoints, or the goals of non-Western powers. It makes the major assumption that, if strategically reoriented, U.S. leadership is not only desirable but also essential for maintaining world peace. That might appeal to Western policy circles, but it won't win over a sceptical or divided audience.

Though it is less sympathetic to how other people might perceive the same dynamics, the book does sympathise with the deterioration and drift in U.S. strategy. Additionally, its containment-first approach risks hardening the very behaviours it aims to discourage, even though it makes sense given the recent assertiveness of the CCP. Even though the Cold War analogy has its uses, in a world characterised by competing ideologies and economic interdependence rather than just rigid blocks of power, it may conceal more than it reveals.

All things considered, anyone working in government, security, or boardrooms who wants to know where things might be going should read World on the Brink. But it is neither an investigation of coexistence nor a diplomatic road map. It is an exhortation to sharpen one's blades, with a greater emphasis on surviving the future than on sharing it.

It is best to read it with voices from outside the Five Eyes echo chamber, but it is still recommended.

[Juan Rivera · Rating 5 out of 5]

I like to talk through and make sense of world events, but most media coverage feels biased, incomplete, and far from balanced. This book offers a deeper, more coherent framework.

It examines the thinking of today’s key leaders—Biden/Trump, Putin, and Xi—and asks: based on their worldviews, what should we expect next?

The focus is on what the United States must do to remain the leading power. China is the central challenge, yet Washington keeps losing focus to other crises (Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Israel–Hamas and the broader Iran dynamic).

Taiwan is the hinge. The book argues that Xi could be preparing for a move around 2028. Should the U.S. defend Taiwan? Can credible deterrence prevent a war, or are we drifting toward one?

The new “oil” is semiconductors. China still struggles to access leading-edge chips, which is a strategic advantage for the U.S. But China dominates rare earths and other critical inputs—retaliation risks are real, and we’re already seeing signs of this.

The book also reminds us that the U.S. is stronger than it thinks—militarily, technologically, and industrially—while China’s military, though huge, is still catching up in capability. Demographics matter too: China faces a steep population decline by 2100, and its system isn’t attractive to high-skilled immigrants. The U.S. retains an edge if it stays a magnet for talent and innovation, but restrictive immigration policies could undercut that advantage.

Protecting innovation is essential: tighten IP safeguards, curb illicit tech transfer, and invest in the ecosystems that create breakthroughs. Strengthening alliances (Australia, Europe, key Asian partners) is equally vital—tariffs on friends risk pushing them toward Beijing and eroding trust.

Bottom line: the primary strategic task for the U.S. is China. Stay focused—on innovation, talent, IP protection, resilient supply chains, and credible deterrence. A thought-provoking, timely read.