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The Next Age of Uncertainty: How the World Can Adapt to a Riskier Future
*FINALIST FOR THE 2023 OTTAWA BOOK AWARD*
*SHORTLISTED FOR THE SHAUGHNESSY COHEN PRIZE FOR POLITICAL WRITING*
*SHORTLISTED FOR THE 2022 DONNER PRIZE*
NATIONAL BESTSELLER
From the former Governor of the Bank of Canada, a far-seeing guide to the powerful economic forces that will shape the decades ahead.
The economic ground is shifting beneath our feet. The world is becoming more volatile, and people are understandably worried about their financial futures. In this urgent and accessible guide to the crises and opportunities that lie ahead, economist and former Governor of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz maps out the powerful tectonic forces that are shaping our future, and the ideas that will allow us to master them.
These forces include an aging workforce, mounting debt, and rising income inequality. Technological advances, too, are adding to the pressure, putting people out of work, and climate change is forcing a transition to a lower-carbon economy. It is no surprise that people are feeling uncertain.
The implications of these tectonic tensions will cascade throughout every dimension of our lives—the job market, the housing market, the investment climate, as well as government and central bank policy, and the role of the corporation within society. The pandemic has added momentum to many of them.
Poloz skillfully argues that past crises, from the Victorian Depression in the late 1800s to the more recent downturn in 2008, give a hint of what is in store for us in the decades ahead. Unlike the purely destructive power of earthquakes, the upheaval that is sure to come in the decades ahead will offer unexpected opportunities for renewal and growth.
Filled with takeaways for employers, investors, and policymakers, as well as families discussing jobs and mortgage renewals around the kitchen table, The Next Age of Uncertainty is an indispensable guide for those navigating the fault lines of the risky world ahead.
*SHORTLISTED FOR THE SHAUGHNESSY COHEN PRIZE FOR POLITICAL WRITING*
*SHORTLISTED FOR THE 2022 DONNER PRIZE*
NATIONAL BESTSELLER
From the former Governor of the Bank of Canada, a far-seeing guide to the powerful economic forces that will shape the decades ahead.
The economic ground is shifting beneath our feet. The world is becoming more volatile, and people are understandably worried about their financial futures. In this urgent and accessible guide to the crises and opportunities that lie ahead, economist and former Governor of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz maps out the powerful tectonic forces that are shaping our future, and the ideas that will allow us to master them.
These forces include an aging workforce, mounting debt, and rising income inequality. Technological advances, too, are adding to the pressure, putting people out of work, and climate change is forcing a transition to a lower-carbon economy. It is no surprise that people are feeling uncertain.
The implications of these tectonic tensions will cascade throughout every dimension of our lives—the job market, the housing market, the investment climate, as well as government and central bank policy, and the role of the corporation within society. The pandemic has added momentum to many of them.
Poloz skillfully argues that past crises, from the Victorian Depression in the late 1800s to the more recent downturn in 2008, give a hint of what is in store for us in the decades ahead. Unlike the purely destructive power of earthquakes, the upheaval that is sure to come in the decades ahead will offer unexpected opportunities for renewal and growth.
Filled with takeaways for employers, investors, and policymakers, as well as families discussing jobs and mortgage renewals around the kitchen table, The Next Age of Uncertainty is an indispensable guide for those navigating the fault lines of the risky world ahead.
320 pages, Paperback
First published February 22, 2022
63 people are currently reading
556 people want to read
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 44 reviews
September 12, 2022
This was an incredibly insightful book by one of Canada’s least appreciated Bank of Canada governors, Stephen Poloz.
I have to admit, I did not know much about him after he took the helm from Mark Carney. However, each chapter begins with a little personal story about himself that is both amusing and helps to understand how he sees the world. His thesis regards five tectonic forces that will invariably cause increasing uncertainty and volatility to our economies: population aging, technological progress, growing inequality, rising debts, and climate change. This all leads to a lower baseline interest rate and economic growth that reverts back to a longer term trend. His longtime experience at the Bank of Canada and CEO of Export Development Canada surely brings the necessary experience that is required to understand both the underlying business needs and the needs of our economy - something I appreciate as a Commercial Banker and career is capital markets. His painting of the chaotic timeline of the COVID pandemic and the monetary and fiscal response was exciting and extremely eye opening. His work and the government’s work of diverting economic disaster is not fully appreciated, especially by those who simply don’t understand what was at stake.
I am saddened by some of the negative reviews here, as economic theories are not well understood by the general population. While easy to read for those with general concepts, I feel like the experience and knowledge passed by Mr. Poloz would be lost on many, especially in the politically divisive environment we live in now, which Mr. Poloz reminds us frequently. This was an amazing book, one of which I will pick up again to review. I never thought I’d be a central banker fanboy, but I did consider getting a signed copy of this book, but alas there’s no need as Mr. Poloz’s signature is printed on all our Canadian bills.
Mr Poloz, thank you for all you have done.
I have to admit, I did not know much about him after he took the helm from Mark Carney. However, each chapter begins with a little personal story about himself that is both amusing and helps to understand how he sees the world. His thesis regards five tectonic forces that will invariably cause increasing uncertainty and volatility to our economies: population aging, technological progress, growing inequality, rising debts, and climate change. This all leads to a lower baseline interest rate and economic growth that reverts back to a longer term trend. His longtime experience at the Bank of Canada and CEO of Export Development Canada surely brings the necessary experience that is required to understand both the underlying business needs and the needs of our economy - something I appreciate as a Commercial Banker and career is capital markets. His painting of the chaotic timeline of the COVID pandemic and the monetary and fiscal response was exciting and extremely eye opening. His work and the government’s work of diverting economic disaster is not fully appreciated, especially by those who simply don’t understand what was at stake.
I am saddened by some of the negative reviews here, as economic theories are not well understood by the general population. While easy to read for those with general concepts, I feel like the experience and knowledge passed by Mr. Poloz would be lost on many, especially in the politically divisive environment we live in now, which Mr. Poloz reminds us frequently. This was an amazing book, one of which I will pick up again to review. I never thought I’d be a central banker fanboy, but I did consider getting a signed copy of this book, but alas there’s no need as Mr. Poloz’s signature is printed on all our Canadian bills.
Mr Poloz, thank you for all you have done.
September 12, 2022
Stephen Poloz ,a former Governor of the Bank of Canada, reminds us in The Next Age of Uncertainty that large structural forces shape our economic future( he concentrates on five) anyone of which is a challenge but the five together- demography, technology, climate change, debt and inequality- may be more than our decision- makers can handle.He therefore forcasts that risks will increase while our political ability to cope in an era of increased polarization has decreased.There is great value in this book: he shows how the tectonic forces he describes have shaped past historic events like the 2008 financial crisis or the Great Depression and his economic history begins with personal anecdotes in each chapter that make the somewhat arcane theories he describes understandable and relevant.When discussing housing,for example, he tells about growing up in Oshawa and how his parents lost their dream house( a prospect now facing many overextended Canadians).His prescriptions on what to do to better prepare for accelerating risk are sensible but not
especially groundbreaking .Even these recommendations, however, such as increasing revenue from consumption taxes to reduce debt and pay for health may be a bridge too far for a Canadian political system that is so polarized that even quoting from reports of the World Economic Forum ,which Poloz does often ,is now suspect among conspiracy- minded populists.Buckle- up your seatbelts folks,Poloz tells us we will be facing an exceptionally bumpy ride !
especially groundbreaking .Even these recommendations, however, such as increasing revenue from consumption taxes to reduce debt and pay for health may be a bridge too far for a Canadian political system that is so polarized that even quoting from reports of the World Economic Forum ,which Poloz does often ,is now suspect among conspiracy- minded populists.Buckle- up your seatbelts folks,Poloz tells us we will be facing an exceptionally bumpy ride !
March 14, 2022
Fearmongering from a man specialized in robbing the people blind with his printing machine. You save, he spends.
Uncertainty? Two centuries ago one could not know who would be king 5 years later. It might just be another dynasty. Today, on the lists are the same 3 to 5 people chosen by the establishment and people get to vote one in power. And even for the general public: it used to be death of starvation, death from the elements, death from natural disaster, death from many diseases. Today it's just poverty because of inflation and movement restrictions.
Uncertainty? Two centuries ago one could not know who would be king 5 years later. It might just be another dynasty. Today, on the lists are the same 3 to 5 people chosen by the establishment and people get to vote one in power. And even for the general public: it used to be death of starvation, death from the elements, death from natural disaster, death from many diseases. Today it's just poverty because of inflation and movement restrictions.
July 8, 2022
It was quite interesting to read from the perspective of the former governor of the bank of Canada, I was surprised by his sense of humour. The book was directed more towards government and corporate action than civilian, however, there were many applicable concepts. This book definitely challenged my understanding of economics, but inspired me to read more on the topic.
September 19, 2024
Helped me understand some of the larger dynamics (tectonic forces, as Poloz calls them) effecting us today.
“Everyone could see that economic instability was already on the rise long before COVID-19 came along. This was due to the growing influence of tectonic forces operating beneath the surface of the global economy, tectonic forces that will interact with and magnify one another in the years ahead. The five forces identified here—population aging, technological progress, growing inequality, rising debt, and climate change—will generate economic and financial earthquakes in the future. The only certainty will be greater uncertainty.” (269)
“Everyone could see that economic instability was already on the rise long before COVID-19 came along. This was due to the growing influence of tectonic forces operating beneath the surface of the global economy, tectonic forces that will interact with and magnify one another in the years ahead. The five forces identified here—population aging, technological progress, growing inequality, rising debt, and climate change—will generate economic and financial earthquakes in the future. The only certainty will be greater uncertainty.” (269)
February 13, 2023
I did it.
May 11, 2022
I loved Economics in my University years so I enjoyed this book. Very timely analysis of the past, present and future trends. My favourite chapter was his analysis on The COVID-19 pandemic while I also liked his personal anecdotes on the matter.
May 3, 2022
3.5 stars. I really wanted to like this book, but I have to admit that I just don’t find economics that enthralling. Steve takes a good stab at making a dry subject readable but tends to lapse into some dense writing at times. What I enjoyed the most were his personal anecdotes used to illustrate the subject material. For example, on the topic of economic inequality he compares his father’s job (lower wages, no pension, less stability) to others doing similar work for General Motors (aka Generous Motors). The main thrust of the book is that a number of forces (aging population, technological changes, climate change) will increase the volatility of economics around the world.
Full disclosure - Steve and I were classmates throughout high school, competing for the same academic prizes, and I occasionally gloat that I beat the Governor of the Bank of Canada in mathematics.
Full disclosure - Steve and I were classmates throughout high school, competing for the same academic prizes, and I occasionally gloat that I beat the Governor of the Bank of Canada in mathematics.
August 25, 2022
The Next Age of Uncertainty was incredibly interesting to me as an individual with a degree in Economics. Stephen Poloz dares to predict the future observing trends from the past giving credit to the fact that the near future will likely be very different. The recent activities across the world such as international conflict, rising inflation, & increased immigration across many areas of the world point to the expected increased volatility pointed at by Poloz. Poloz uses examples that are heavily supported by textbook economics, not abrasive political opinions. I assume individuals that greatly disagree with the premise of this book may be acting based on emotional impulse rather than that of intellectual understanding of economics.
June 9, 2022
True to the Central Bank’s independence, Poloz strikes me as remarkably nonpartisan. I’m reminded of the fine line an impartial jurist must toe. The economic determinations a central banker underwrites are among the most political of arrangements that can be officiated. Yet he must be apolitical. Or, at minimum, maintain the edifice of such dispassion. An impossible task.
How can you form fiduciary policy concerning immigration, say, when the outcome will, of course, land on either side of a political wedge? Generally, the talking points and canned responses of any public servant will expose his loyalties. I detected very little of this in Poloz. His decisions are more progressive overall, but he’s tough to pin down based solely on his opinions. And that is refreshing.
I enjoyed this book’s Graham-esque appeal to staid defensive financial stewardship. I think he’s right about how people should govern the risks they shoulder in the post-pandemic market. Yet he also asserts the importance of ESG investing, which is not exactly a traditional approach to portfolio management. On the long view, however, sustainability SHOULD be among the most conventional values of any entrepreneur.
Our dominant laissez-faire, shareholder primary, and petrol-reliant capitalism is destined for some intense tectonic shocks. This IS NOT an expression of someone’s crackpot leftist sympathies. It is ALREADY happening and is grounded on solid data. This should help everyone prepare for what’s ahead without degenerating into the all-too-familiar Thunbergian vituperations of doom our media amplifies. After all, our dual socio-environmental crises present some titillating opportunities, too, which should not be understated.
Poloz also teaches a lot about fundamental economic theory - what a central bank’s prime mandate is, how it should be executed, and how Canada fits into the broader global community. Not everyone will take to the subject. It’s likely too dry for mass circulation. But I enjoyed his sound perspective and his modest, down-to-earth tone.
If you enjoyed Mark Carney’s Value(s), this is right in line with it. Highly informative and sensible. But you have to be already quite interested in the subject matter. 3 out of 5 stars.
How can you form fiduciary policy concerning immigration, say, when the outcome will, of course, land on either side of a political wedge? Generally, the talking points and canned responses of any public servant will expose his loyalties. I detected very little of this in Poloz. His decisions are more progressive overall, but he’s tough to pin down based solely on his opinions. And that is refreshing.
I enjoyed this book’s Graham-esque appeal to staid defensive financial stewardship. I think he’s right about how people should govern the risks they shoulder in the post-pandemic market. Yet he also asserts the importance of ESG investing, which is not exactly a traditional approach to portfolio management. On the long view, however, sustainability SHOULD be among the most conventional values of any entrepreneur.
Our dominant laissez-faire, shareholder primary, and petrol-reliant capitalism is destined for some intense tectonic shocks. This IS NOT an expression of someone’s crackpot leftist sympathies. It is ALREADY happening and is grounded on solid data. This should help everyone prepare for what’s ahead without degenerating into the all-too-familiar Thunbergian vituperations of doom our media amplifies. After all, our dual socio-environmental crises present some titillating opportunities, too, which should not be understated.
Poloz also teaches a lot about fundamental economic theory - what a central bank’s prime mandate is, how it should be executed, and how Canada fits into the broader global community. Not everyone will take to the subject. It’s likely too dry for mass circulation. But I enjoyed his sound perspective and his modest, down-to-earth tone.
If you enjoyed Mark Carney’s Value(s), this is right in line with it. Highly informative and sensible. But you have to be already quite interested in the subject matter. 3 out of 5 stars.
May 27, 2022
I liked it for its readable look inside the world of central banks as they deal with competing objectives. On one hand "policymakers learn from each major economic episode and become better at their craft". However "today's models may have little value in the new era".
I wish that had been the promise of the book and its main focus. Instead, it tried to offer too much to various audiences and in each of these areas there are other writers and books that are better suited.
I wish that had been the promise of the book and its main focus. Instead, it tried to offer too much to various audiences and in each of these areas there are other writers and books that are better suited.
September 25, 2024
I’m a bit less optimistic about corporations’ willingness to pursue social good and invest in long-term labour development than Poloz is, but I generally really liked the framework he laid out for how current underlying economic forces will increase economic uncertainty in the future and what that will mean for all economic actors.
August 2, 2023
Generally, this was a pretty good book. I ready Mark Carney's book Value(s), and figured I better give the one from our central bank's next governor a go.
While this book didn't crack the case of "how to make economics interesting for non-economics folks", I certainly feel that a neophyte economist could read this and not be lost at sea. The book is short on jargon, and Poloz's anecdotes at the start of every chapter I found interesting. Really, he should have just wrote a book of stories about his time as central bank governor. Maybe that would have been less interesting than a book about the drying behaviours of paint, but I would have liked it. To spoil things for you, here's the main takeaway in as few words as possible: Strap in, things are getting interesting. I was heartened to see that the general take is much more positive than the comparative "nobody knows what to expect but we're definitely all doomed", I wonder how much of that positives is actually perceived and due to nativity on my part: does he think the picture is as rosy as I think it is after reading the book?
Nonetheless, I'd be remiss if I didn't point out some of the inexplicable sins that I noted:
1) Poloz does the typical economist thing where they suckle at the teat of free trade in the name of economic efficiency, while completely ignoring the national security and economic reliability arguments of having some critical industries located domestically. If COVID taught us nothing else, having certain domestic manufacturing capabilities (Vaccines? Respirators?), is necessary, even if we have to police it with tariffs or direct subsidies. And I can't imagine the "next age of uncertainty" is going to reduce this.
2) He does the thing most authors do where they assume "owning a home for the next generation shouldn't really be a priority", while discussing how much owning property meant to his family. That young people have gotten a disaster of a real estate situation, he proposes basically no solutions aside from the typical "build more houses" or "wait for your parents to die and get an inheritance". I think the evaluation of the anger amongst the Millennial and GenZ generations here is not surprising but still sad. This is an important issue to us. Deal with it.
3) I'm really doubtful a sales tax rebate system can be as progressive as he says it can be. Maybe I missed something, but his "income inequality" prescription requires a really careful read and either I missed something or we wildly disagree on basic human economic behaviours...
While this book didn't crack the case of "how to make economics interesting for non-economics folks", I certainly feel that a neophyte economist could read this and not be lost at sea. The book is short on jargon, and Poloz's anecdotes at the start of every chapter I found interesting. Really, he should have just wrote a book of stories about his time as central bank governor. Maybe that would have been less interesting than a book about the drying behaviours of paint, but I would have liked it. To spoil things for you, here's the main takeaway in as few words as possible: Strap in, things are getting interesting. I was heartened to see that the general take is much more positive than the comparative "nobody knows what to expect but we're definitely all doomed", I wonder how much of that positives is actually perceived and due to nativity on my part: does he think the picture is as rosy as I think it is after reading the book?
Nonetheless, I'd be remiss if I didn't point out some of the inexplicable sins that I noted:
1) Poloz does the typical economist thing where they suckle at the teat of free trade in the name of economic efficiency, while completely ignoring the national security and economic reliability arguments of having some critical industries located domestically. If COVID taught us nothing else, having certain domestic manufacturing capabilities (Vaccines? Respirators?), is necessary, even if we have to police it with tariffs or direct subsidies. And I can't imagine the "next age of uncertainty" is going to reduce this.
2) He does the thing most authors do where they assume "owning a home for the next generation shouldn't really be a priority", while discussing how much owning property meant to his family. That young people have gotten a disaster of a real estate situation, he proposes basically no solutions aside from the typical "build more houses" or "wait for your parents to die and get an inheritance". I think the evaluation of the anger amongst the Millennial and GenZ generations here is not surprising but still sad. This is an important issue to us. Deal with it.
3) I'm really doubtful a sales tax rebate system can be as progressive as he says it can be. Maybe I missed something, but his "income inequality" prescription requires a really careful read and either I missed something or we wildly disagree on basic human economic behaviours...
June 8, 2024
It took over a month to read this book, but it has nothing to do with the author or the subject. Like most readers, I hope, there are periods when there is no time to read or the thought of ‘picking up ‘ a book is not appealing.
I was first attracted to this book because the author had credibility to the subject, Stephen Polo is a former Governor of the Bank of Canada. The second attraction was the language used by the author. This book id meant to the be read by Canadians who are interested in the economy, how it works, what happens when plans don’t roll out as they should and how economies react to major global events and in this case COVID and Climate Change get a lot of ink.
The use of tectonic force as drivers of the economy was very helpful, as was the Poloz’s writing about how industrial revolutions and global depressions have created waves of economic growth, recession, depression and inflation.
The Next Age of Uncertainty will give Canadians interested in our economy a background to help understand how governments act and don’t act when economic tectonic forces collide. My impression of this book is that it will be a resource for referral to understand the waves of growth and retraction Canada and the global economy will undoubtedly face in the future.
I recommend this book to anyone that has even a slightly above average interest in learning about economies and the forces that drive them.
I was first attracted to this book because the author had credibility to the subject, Stephen Polo is a former Governor of the Bank of Canada. The second attraction was the language used by the author. This book id meant to the be read by Canadians who are interested in the economy, how it works, what happens when plans don’t roll out as they should and how economies react to major global events and in this case COVID and Climate Change get a lot of ink.
The use of tectonic force as drivers of the economy was very helpful, as was the Poloz’s writing about how industrial revolutions and global depressions have created waves of economic growth, recession, depression and inflation.
The Next Age of Uncertainty will give Canadians interested in our economy a background to help understand how governments act and don’t act when economic tectonic forces collide. My impression of this book is that it will be a resource for referral to understand the waves of growth and retraction Canada and the global economy will undoubtedly face in the future.
I recommend this book to anyone that has even a slightly above average interest in learning about economies and the forces that drive them.
September 19, 2022
This was an excellent book that looked into the implications of the pandemic from an economic viewpoint and how central and governmental bodies reacted to the crisis. The book, as with any good economic treatise, contains both reviews of historical incidents and projects into the future based on the author's "best guess".
Poloz mentions some personal history and uses that history in a uniquely approachable way to explain large macro-economic consequences. This book is at times both light-hearted and serious, given the gravitas of the subject matter at hand. He cites Nassim Taleb a number of times, specifically around the "black swan" theory. I don't know if you could call the pandemic a black swan event, since many people predicted the event before it began, and there were (granted preliminary) plans in place by some NGOs to face the scenario.
I really enjoyed this book. I don't 100% agree with the conclusions, despite the author referencing one of my favourite Edelmann reports to back them up. Some of the societal and socio-economical solutions suggested seem a little post-industrial dystopian to me... company towns and "work to own" housing initiatives have not faired well in the long run. There are many, many failed company towns in North America to prove that. Still, the ideas and history presented are interesting. Worth a read.
Poloz mentions some personal history and uses that history in a uniquely approachable way to explain large macro-economic consequences. This book is at times both light-hearted and serious, given the gravitas of the subject matter at hand. He cites Nassim Taleb a number of times, specifically around the "black swan" theory. I don't know if you could call the pandemic a black swan event, since many people predicted the event before it began, and there were (granted preliminary) plans in place by some NGOs to face the scenario.
I really enjoyed this book. I don't 100% agree with the conclusions, despite the author referencing one of my favourite Edelmann reports to back them up. Some of the societal and socio-economical solutions suggested seem a little post-industrial dystopian to me... company towns and "work to own" housing initiatives have not faired well in the long run. There are many, many failed company towns in North America to prove that. Still, the ideas and history presented are interesting. Worth a read.
December 11, 2022
Lots of interest, lots of great interest, lots of kind of unnecessary econ 101 ("this is why global trade is good for everyone"), bit of confusing seeming naivete (does he not get that people aren't being self-destructively protectionist, they believe they are trading with companies that have their thumbs on the scale?), and then a really shocking section about how his leadership models are fictional TV characters. You hope it's tongue in cheek and he'll refer to Marcus Aurelius or Hayek or Churchill soon but, no, it's "President" Bartlett's decision-making in an entirely made up world that he uses to inform his style. Yikes.
And the not so subtle political swipes just lower the tone, I know he was trying to be subtle but he's obviously somewhere to the left and obviously hates Trump, and I don't need everything down to my restaurant menu taking a brave anti-Trump position. . .
Setting aside those criticisms, though, it was a fun book, an interesting book, it compiles the things you know already into a nice composition, it brings light, it's not mean or parochial, it's human, and if everyone read it we'd probably have a better few years ahead of us.
Could use for school, but it's pretty long and while it brings insights it probably does so less than some other sources. If I had all the time in the world, though, I'd add it to the list.
And the not so subtle political swipes just lower the tone, I know he was trying to be subtle but he's obviously somewhere to the left and obviously hates Trump, and I don't need everything down to my restaurant menu taking a brave anti-Trump position. . .
Setting aside those criticisms, though, it was a fun book, an interesting book, it compiles the things you know already into a nice composition, it brings light, it's not mean or parochial, it's human, and if everyone read it we'd probably have a better few years ahead of us.
Could use for school, but it's pretty long and while it brings insights it probably does so less than some other sources. If I had all the time in the world, though, I'd add it to the list.
May 4, 2024
While dry and dense at times, particularly towards the 60-70% mark, I still found this book quite engaging as Poloz did a great job at explaining and detailing the economic forces at play shaping our world. I also liked how even though this book contained a lot of negativity, Poloz brought a refreshing optimistic lens to the discussion. Here are my main takeaways...
- 5 tectonic forces that are the undercurrent of the economic system; aging population, rising income inequality, technological process, rising debt and climate change. Technological progress is the only positive one!
- Aging population had deep implications for society as a whole and is the most fascinating one to me. It also explains why Canada needs immigration for economic growth and the growing importance of a equipped healthcare system
- The future will be marked by more volatility and uncertainty, both good and bad
- Politics get in the way of having a better society for literally everyone
- Globalization has lead to more jobs and an improved economy, not less. Likewise, automation does displace jobs but the amount of jobs it creates offsets the displacement.
- Economic growth is driven by population growth and productivity growth, with the latter increasing in importance as the population ages
- 5 tectonic forces that are the undercurrent of the economic system; aging population, rising income inequality, technological process, rising debt and climate change. Technological progress is the only positive one!
- Aging population had deep implications for society as a whole and is the most fascinating one to me. It also explains why Canada needs immigration for economic growth and the growing importance of a equipped healthcare system
- The future will be marked by more volatility and uncertainty, both good and bad
- Politics get in the way of having a better society for literally everyone
- Globalization has lead to more jobs and an improved economy, not less. Likewise, automation does displace jobs but the amount of jobs it creates offsets the displacement.
- Economic growth is driven by population growth and productivity growth, with the latter increasing in importance as the population ages
August 23, 2025
This book provides a central banker/economist perspective on dealing with the uncertainty of major ‘tectonic’ events and their impacts on inflation, interest rates, and the world we buy/sell in. While the discussion to prepare us for the ‘next age’ of uncertainty includes lessons from major upheavals in the past and posits how the world might respond to climate change, population aging, decarbonization, and cybersecurity, it never gets to where it needs to be for the current world we all face. As the global pandemic winds down, the book fails to contemplate advice to address the current uncertainty that arises from the political remaking of the world by oligarchs, ultra-high net worth individuals and an anti-trade narcissist in the White House. The three years since publication have diminished the value of the book. Looking in the rear-view mirror is not the way to drive forward successfully.
March 1, 2023
A solid read for people looking to learn about public policy econ and risk management. Certainly not an example of some of the newer econ work coming out that is more radical; he's a fairly traditional economist, representative of his generation. The type of economist that has dedicated his life to public service because he believes in it, and who thinks income inequality is one of the big problems of our time, but still, with the same blinders that most economists of his generation have.
He starts from the basics for econ and does not use equations, so it's readable for a general non-economist audience. There are a few chapters in the second half that are more specialized / interesting for people with econ backgrounds but who might not know about specific topics, such as what measures the Bank of Canada took to ensure companies had enough liquidity during the COVID-19 pandemic.
He starts from the basics for econ and does not use equations, so it's readable for a general non-economist audience. There are a few chapters in the second half that are more specialized / interesting for people with econ backgrounds but who might not know about specific topics, such as what measures the Bank of Canada took to ensure companies had enough liquidity during the COVID-19 pandemic.
June 27, 2024
I was hoping for something a bit more insightful from the former Governor. These are indeed big issues we face, but the coverage here is little more than a summary of the issue and what conventional economics suggest may occur.
This book has provoked some thinking on my part, and Mr. Poloz certainly has an eye on the big trends. But the writing is relatively uninteresting. The personal anecdotes give me the impression that this was a vanity project more than anything.
Mr. Poloz is, of course, probably right in his conclusions, and I give this review an extra star for making an economic plea to companies to step up and proactively tackle these issues instead of blaming government inactivity. Economics tells us that a strong, healthy private sector raises all ships, and that has to mean ALL ships.
This book has provoked some thinking on my part, and Mr. Poloz certainly has an eye on the big trends. But the writing is relatively uninteresting. The personal anecdotes give me the impression that this was a vanity project more than anything.
Mr. Poloz is, of course, probably right in his conclusions, and I give this review an extra star for making an economic plea to companies to step up and proactively tackle these issues instead of blaming government inactivity. Economics tells us that a strong, healthy private sector raises all ships, and that has to mean ALL ships.
February 21, 2024
Engaging, very readable, concise policy book from central banker. In parts a lessons learnt from the pandemic from the eyes of the then Governor of the Bank of Canada, and in part a view of what the economic future looks like for Canada and the world beyond. Thoroughly rewarding and it's clear that he is holding his intellect back when writing - addressing the largest audience possible to help disseminate his view of what he calls the five tectonic forces: population aging, technological progress, rising income inequality, rising debt, and climate change. Reassuring that he was in charge of the central bank, being level-headed, reasonable, open-minded, and self-effacing. Found his bibliography very interesting - cites Freeland's Plutocrats without once mentioning the book in his text.
July 22, 2022
Essentially, the author prescribes value-based policy. Nothing new in that. Mark Carney (and other economists) made a more solid argument for same both more eloquently and in substantially greater specificity. See his Value(s): Building a Better World for All
April 29, 2023
Yeah. Not-so-much. Never trust an economist who writes a book without footnotes and a bibliography of a page and a half. Lots of opinion. No back-up. Interesting to read to see how naive those who know better think of the average person. Poloz subscribes to the 'all of life is commodifiable' neoliberalism of Mises, Hyak, and Friedman, continually acknowledging then dismissing concerns about the ravages of globalization and the devastation it has left in its wake.
October 25, 2023
A non-fiction book. Not my normal read. I did not think I'd get past the first few chapters, and then I became interested. This is an area of life that is outside my norm. I appreciated the mix of information, education as well as sharing about life at the top of Bank of Canada.
I am now much more interested in economics and will be listening more to the news as they report about changing interest rates.
If anyone is interested in economics already, they would enjoy this book.
I am now much more interested in economics and will be listening more to the news as they report about changing interest rates.
If anyone is interested in economics already, they would enjoy this book.
March 12, 2022
This was a great read.
Timely and well researched, this book did a great job at looking at the political, economical, and philosophical future in this current age of uncertainty.
It honestly, was quite a settling read to me - amidst these days of unsettling news.
Would recommend.
3.8/5
Timely and well researched, this book did a great job at looking at the political, economical, and philosophical future in this current age of uncertainty.
It honestly, was quite a settling read to me - amidst these days of unsettling news.
Would recommend.
3.8/5
December 15, 2024
Stephen does a good job of laying out what the major risks for our global economy are in the coming decades. And does so while interlacing personal story. Making the read both insighful and easy to read.
May 10, 2025
Short, concise. Authenticity in maintaining the thesis with personal and professional anecdotes.
Where some might want more depth, Mr. Poloz offers a consistency for the average reader to understand.
Presents his own views with a strong persuasive approach.
Where some might want more depth, Mr. Poloz offers a consistency for the average reader to understand.
Presents his own views with a strong persuasive approach.
July 12, 2025
This was a mini refresher and Montetary Policy 101! Interesting to think about the examples and scenarios that Poloz presents from the policymakers presepctive. Especially insightful were the stories behind how the policy responses during covid were developed.
March 12, 2022
Excellent analysis of our current economic situation, how we got here, what the future may hold and some of the pitfalls we face. Very technical but worth the read.
May 12, 2022
worth reading
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