The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: Scenarios for South Africa's Uncertain Future

by Ray Hartley, Greg Mills, Mills Soko

South Africa is facing an extraordinary ‘polycrisis’. The dimensions of this crisis include an energy collapse; a failing rail network; weak education outcomes; an interrupted water supply; and the effects of decades of endemic corruption that have brought much of government to a halt. But the country also has incredible a wealth of sought-after minerals; an enviable Constitution that protects rights and advocates social inclusion; an advanced financial and services sector; thriving agricultural and auto industries that compete with the best in the world; a prosecution service that is rapidly rebuilding; and, most of all, strong-willed people determined to make life better through hard work, entrepreneurship and hustling. The choice is we either build on the positives and take the country forward or we will be overwhelmed by the negatives and end up as another Zimbabwe or Venezuela. We have the people, the policies and the resources. What is missing is the political will to make the difficult choices that will save South Africa from disaster. This book takes you on a journey that ends with one of three possible future the Good, the Bad or the Ugly. Compiled by The Brenthurst Foundation and In Transformation Initiative, and workshopped with high-powered leaders in business and politics, the scenarios have stimulated intense public interest as the country grapples with its mounting problems. The good news is that there is a clear road towards a positive future. It will take courageous leadership and smart thinking to get there, but the ‘Good’ scenario is tantalisingly within grasp.

181 pages, Kindle Edition

First published August 15, 2023

About the author

Ray Hartley attended Queens College and Rhodes University, graduating with a BA Honours degree. He worked as an administrator at the constitutional negotiations, which ended apartheid. He has covered the unfolding drama of the new South Africa as a political correspondent who travelled extensively with Mandela and Mbeki and edited the Sunday Times, The Times and BusinessLive in South Africa.
Ray is the author Ragged Glory - The Rainbow Nation in Black and White, The Big Fix - How South Africa Stole the 2010 World Cup and Ramaphosa: The Man Who Would be King.
He is presently Research Director at The Brenthurst Foundation.