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PRACTICAL UNCERTAINTY: Useful Ideas in Decision-Making, Risk, Randomness, & AI
Life is full of uncertainty, risk, opportunity, and randomness. How can we gain an edge in our decision-making?
There is much that we can neither predict nor control—but we can significantly improve our odds of favorable outcomes in both work and life. By developing an intuitive understanding of risk, chance, and uncertainty, we can harness the power of the randomness all around us to positively impact our lives.
After two decades of investigation, Hossein Pishro-Nik distills his personal experience, research, and feedback from students into actionable methods that will help you make more confident decisions . . . even if you’ve never picked up a statistics book. You’ll learn:
Usable Insights: Practical applications of probability, statistics, finance, information theory, and machine learning
Entrepreneurial Edge: Strategies to assess risk and make smarter business decisions
The Unexpected Link: The surprising connection between privacy and randomness
AI in the Real World: Ways to apply lessons from the world of AI to our everyday decision-making
Demystifying the Complex: Accessible explanations of powerful mathematical concepts that, until now, have not been adequately covered for all readers
Practical Uncertainty is a friendly, educational manual that uses real-world insights to help you internalize essential tools for risk-taking and decision-making in unpredictable scenarios. With this coherent and approachable book, you’ll gain the knowledge and intuition to master the uncertainty in your life, improve your daily habits, and increase your chances of achieving your goals.
There is much that we can neither predict nor control—but we can significantly improve our odds of favorable outcomes in both work and life. By developing an intuitive understanding of risk, chance, and uncertainty, we can harness the power of the randomness all around us to positively impact our lives.
After two decades of investigation, Hossein Pishro-Nik distills his personal experience, research, and feedback from students into actionable methods that will help you make more confident decisions . . . even if you’ve never picked up a statistics book. You’ll learn:
Usable Insights: Practical applications of probability, statistics, finance, information theory, and machine learning
Entrepreneurial Edge: Strategies to assess risk and make smarter business decisions
The Unexpected Link: The surprising connection between privacy and randomness
AI in the Real World: Ways to apply lessons from the world of AI to our everyday decision-making
Demystifying the Complex: Accessible explanations of powerful mathematical concepts that, until now, have not been adequately covered for all readers
Practical Uncertainty is a friendly, educational manual that uses real-world insights to help you internalize essential tools for risk-taking and decision-making in unpredictable scenarios. With this coherent and approachable book, you’ll gain the knowledge and intuition to master the uncertainty in your life, improve your daily habits, and increase your chances of achieving your goals.
192 pages, Kindle Edition
Published August 31, 2023
137 people are currently reading
606 people want to read
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Displaying 1 - 9 of 9 reviews
August 10, 2025
I recommend this to everyone! So many useful ideas, and communicated perfectly so I could easily understand. Especially great for improving understanding of what AI is for someone who doesn’t work in AI.
June 5, 2025
It's practical enough but requires a lot of intentional practice to internalize the ideas.
December 14, 2025
When uncertain, consider all possibilities and allocate in proportion to expected reward per unit of cost. The cost is simply the maximum loss that can occur if the choice is incorrect.
This idea does not merely applies to financial investments, but also to general principles and strategies. Questions like "is equity risky now", "should I start this business", "to buy this or search for better alternative" often have no certain answer. The answer becomes evident in hindsight but by then it's too late. In such cases, rather than pursuing correct answer, it's better to be humble and admit the limits of our knowledge. Instead of obsessing over right choice, rather consider the benefit the choice will bring versus the cost in case the choice is wrong. If it is possible to pursue a choice with minimal cost, then why not take the opportunity to gain some of its benefits. This philosophy phrased as probabilistic beliefs is the most enlightening part of the book for me.
The ideas of probability theory in the rest of the book isn't something new to me. Simple examples are used to explain concepts like law of large numbers, heavy tails of multiplicative process, etc but those examples create a wrong impression of financial success. The coin toss example where one gains a small percentage on heads and losses a small percentage on tails. Repeating this 1000 times compounds small wins to massive gains for a small percentage. One might think that those small percentage of successful investors were probably just lucky with the coin toss!
Another example where two players are competing over the results of a coin toss, and the probability of coin toss in their favor is proportional to their past wins. This bias expands a small random advantage in the beginning to a massive lead by the end of the game. But does this mean that rich get richer mainly because they are more lucky?
No wonder the author finds his students discouraged from pursuing opportunities in investments and entrepreneurship. He does not realize the impact these examples will have on the minds of those young people yet to experience the world of commerce.
A similar distributions, like small percentage of massively successful investor, rich getting richer, plots from random walks that look like price charts of stocks, does not mean that those real world distributions were created by random coin toss and random walks. Look closely and you will find significant difference in these artificial distribution and the reality. Very successful traders can go bankrupt in one blunder, very rich people can lose their fortune by making stupid decisions while a middle class entrepreneur can create massive wealth, but these are not possible in coin toss examples. The actual stock prices often show wild movements which is not possible for random walks. The unpredictability in business and finance does not come from coin toss, but from interdependence of people's choices, where each person takes decision in their best interests as judged by their limited knowledge. The reason people study coin tosses instead is because they don't have a model of actual reality. One may use these simple examples to demonstrate some basic concepts of probability, but they should not be confused as an analogy of what a market is.
This idea does not merely applies to financial investments, but also to general principles and strategies. Questions like "is equity risky now", "should I start this business", "to buy this or search for better alternative" often have no certain answer. The answer becomes evident in hindsight but by then it's too late. In such cases, rather than pursuing correct answer, it's better to be humble and admit the limits of our knowledge. Instead of obsessing over right choice, rather consider the benefit the choice will bring versus the cost in case the choice is wrong. If it is possible to pursue a choice with minimal cost, then why not take the opportunity to gain some of its benefits. This philosophy phrased as probabilistic beliefs is the most enlightening part of the book for me.
The ideas of probability theory in the rest of the book isn't something new to me. Simple examples are used to explain concepts like law of large numbers, heavy tails of multiplicative process, etc but those examples create a wrong impression of financial success. The coin toss example where one gains a small percentage on heads and losses a small percentage on tails. Repeating this 1000 times compounds small wins to massive gains for a small percentage. One might think that those small percentage of successful investors were probably just lucky with the coin toss!
Another example where two players are competing over the results of a coin toss, and the probability of coin toss in their favor is proportional to their past wins. This bias expands a small random advantage in the beginning to a massive lead by the end of the game. But does this mean that rich get richer mainly because they are more lucky?
No wonder the author finds his students discouraged from pursuing opportunities in investments and entrepreneurship. He does not realize the impact these examples will have on the minds of those young people yet to experience the world of commerce.
A similar distributions, like small percentage of massively successful investor, rich getting richer, plots from random walks that look like price charts of stocks, does not mean that those real world distributions were created by random coin toss and random walks. Look closely and you will find significant difference in these artificial distribution and the reality. Very successful traders can go bankrupt in one blunder, very rich people can lose their fortune by making stupid decisions while a middle class entrepreneur can create massive wealth, but these are not possible in coin toss examples. The actual stock prices often show wild movements which is not possible for random walks. The unpredictability in business and finance does not come from coin toss, but from interdependence of people's choices, where each person takes decision in their best interests as judged by their limited knowledge. The reason people study coin tosses instead is because they don't have a model of actual reality. One may use these simple examples to demonstrate some basic concepts of probability, but they should not be confused as an analogy of what a market is.
December 22, 2023
What makes us choose one thing over another? How do we decide anything when constantly bombarded by a multitude of choices every day? Does making one choice over another, whether minute or substantial, directly influence our personhood? I believe it does, and that choice is an improbable path that leads us away and back to the self.
So, how can we make informed choices in the age of AI as it intersects the vastness of human consciousness? Hossein Pishro-Nik aims to demystify this in his pivotal book, Practical Uncertainty: Useful Ideas in Decision-Making, Risk, Randomness & AI.
Hossein ascertains that stress can lead to poor choices, and in a world where our fortitude against stress is constantly being reshaped, reimagined, and reinstated, this book is more helpful than ever.
Practical Uncertainty reads as an accessible educational handbook rich with personal stories, real-world applications, and mathematical equations to engineer wise decisions in the face of uncertainty.
I chose this book because in the quest for liberation from the limits of logic, enter AI, Machine Learning, and the inception of something new, seemingly limitless, that can teach us about the limits of logic in an irrational world.
This is indispensable reading for everyday applications of AI in the real world. Readers will learn about AI's lessons and limitations to inform daily decisions, transforming uncertainty into more informed choices. By tapping into the wisdom of the author's knowledge, readers will also gain valuable, coherent insights that make applying the principles of AI enjoyable and beneficial.
The focus on real-world applications to improve daily habits to decrease uncertainty and increase informed decision-making appeals to the conscious human within us all. Curious readers will enjoy the exhilaration of discovering something novel and applicable. While the knowledge is accessible and helpful, I particularly liked the ratio of personal stories to mathematical equations.
Life is full of uncertainties, and there is much that we can neither predict nor control. Nevertheless, a key message in this book is that we can significantly improve our odds of favorable outcomes, specifically in the long run"-Hossein Pishro-Nik
So, how can we make informed choices in the age of AI as it intersects the vastness of human consciousness? Hossein Pishro-Nik aims to demystify this in his pivotal book, Practical Uncertainty: Useful Ideas in Decision-Making, Risk, Randomness & AI.
Hossein ascertains that stress can lead to poor choices, and in a world where our fortitude against stress is constantly being reshaped, reimagined, and reinstated, this book is more helpful than ever.
Practical Uncertainty reads as an accessible educational handbook rich with personal stories, real-world applications, and mathematical equations to engineer wise decisions in the face of uncertainty.
I chose this book because in the quest for liberation from the limits of logic, enter AI, Machine Learning, and the inception of something new, seemingly limitless, that can teach us about the limits of logic in an irrational world.
This is indispensable reading for everyday applications of AI in the real world. Readers will learn about AI's lessons and limitations to inform daily decisions, transforming uncertainty into more informed choices. By tapping into the wisdom of the author's knowledge, readers will also gain valuable, coherent insights that make applying the principles of AI enjoyable and beneficial.
The focus on real-world applications to improve daily habits to decrease uncertainty and increase informed decision-making appeals to the conscious human within us all. Curious readers will enjoy the exhilaration of discovering something novel and applicable. While the knowledge is accessible and helpful, I particularly liked the ratio of personal stories to mathematical equations.
Life is full of uncertainties, and there is much that we can neither predict nor control. Nevertheless, a key message in this book is that we can significantly improve our odds of favorable outcomes, specifically in the long run"-Hossein Pishro-Nik
September 26, 2023
it's a fun read! It's packed with real-life examples and deep insights that make the whole decision-making less intimidating. The way the author breaks things down is Super clear and straight to the point.
January 23, 2025
good read
I got some new perspectives about randomness which I enjoyed thoroughly, however, I wish in the next iteration of this book, the author improves the conclusion. It felt hurried!
I got some new perspectives about randomness which I enjoyed thoroughly, however, I wish in the next iteration of this book, the author improves the conclusion. It felt hurried!
November 23, 2024
I read this book for my thesis class and my professor wrote it, i enjoyed it!! gave me a lot of insight for my own thesis
February 13, 2025
Randomness and uncertainty are parts of everyday life. This book has some thought-provoking ways to think about uncertainty rather than try to ignore or reject it.
September 12, 2025
For school, but ok. It was oversimplified though.
Displaying 1 - 9 of 9 reviews