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The Yemen Model: Why U.S. Policy Has Failed in the Middle East
A close look at failed U.S. policies in the Middle East, offering a fresh perspective on how best to reorient goals in the region
In this book, Alexandra Stark argues that the U.S. approach to Yemen offers insights into the failures of American foreign policy throughout the Middle East. Stark makes the case that despite often being drawn into conflicts within Yemen, the United States has not achieved its policy goals because it has narrowly focused on counterterrorism and regional geopolitical competition rather than on the well-being of Yemenis themselves. She offers recommendations designed to reorient U.S. policy in the Middle East in pursuit of U.S. national security interests and to support the people of these countries in their efforts to make their own communities safe, secure, and prosperous.
In this book, Alexandra Stark argues that the U.S. approach to Yemen offers insights into the failures of American foreign policy throughout the Middle East. Stark makes the case that despite often being drawn into conflicts within Yemen, the United States has not achieved its policy goals because it has narrowly focused on counterterrorism and regional geopolitical competition rather than on the well-being of Yemenis themselves. She offers recommendations designed to reorient U.S. policy in the Middle East in pursuit of U.S. national security interests and to support the people of these countries in their efforts to make their own communities safe, secure, and prosperous.
280 pages, Hardcover
Published April 23, 2024
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September 6, 2024
While at LAX-Los Angeles International Airport I came across the May-June 2024 RAND Review magazine with the cover SAVING CHILDREN. Inside was a short Q& A interview with Alexandra Stark called WHAT WENT WRONG IN YEMEN. I found it fascinating and so, I ordered her recently 2024 published book, THE YEMEN MODEL.
I learned a lot about U.S. Policy in the Middle East under Obama, Trump and Biden. The author, Alexandra Stark, is a brilliant researcher at RAND Corporation. I was impressed by all that she compiled and organized.
I never even knew that the UAE (United Arab Emirates) was made up of seven emirates? Can you name one? I guessed one and was correct: DUBAI. The other six are ABU DHABI, SHARJAH, RAL AL KHAIMAH, AJMAN, UMM AL QUWAIN and FUJAIRAH.
To this day, Sept. 6, 2024, Yemen is still experiencing conflict. The primary conflict is between HOUTHI rebels and the internationally recognized Yemeni government which is backed by a Saudi Arabia led coalition. THE HOUTHI rebels are supported by IRAN, and they control the capital of Sanna and much of Northern Yemen. In addition to this primary conflict there are other factions like the STC: Southern Transitional Council which seeks an Independent Southern Yemen. AQAP: Al-Queda in the Arabian Peninsula also remains active in the region.
Despite ongoing peace talks and some periods of reduced violence the situation is still complex and volatile. The humanitarian crisis remains severe with millions of Yemenis in need of aid.
The scary factoid in my view (after doing my own research outside of the book) is that the HOUTHI MOVEMENT is officially known as ‘Ansar Allah’ = ‘Supporters of God’. They are a Shia Islamist political and military organization the emerged in Yemen in the 1990s. And the scary factoid is their five-line slogan:
God is the Greatest
Death to America
Death to Israel
Curse the Jews
Victory to Islam
Here are the portions I underlined in the book for my own understanding of the complexities of it all:
While Yemen was already the poorest country in the Middle East, by the end of the first decade of this century, the economy was in particularly dire straits. Unemployment was up 34 percent, with youth unemployment almost doubling between 1999 and 2008. Commodity price shocks in 2007 and 2008 led to a 60 percent rise in food prices, contributing to increased poverty.
“The Yemen Model is an ‘intelligence-driven, dynamic targeting’ that uses drone strikes to disrupt terrorist groups.” --Steve Simon, an Advisor to the Obama Administration
The Yemen Model worked—more or less-- as designed, allowing the US to contain AQAP (Al-Queda in the Arabian Peninsula) via drone strikes and maintain its partnership with Yemeni government forces, all without deploying a significant number of US troops on the ground.
AQAP (Al-Queda in the Arabian Peninsula), a terrorist group in Yemen formed from the merger of Al-Qaeda's Saudi and Yemeni branches.
“Drone strikes are the face of America to many Yemeni’s” ...this means that “strikes often cause animosity towards the USA and create a backlash that undermines the national security goals of the USA.”
“I’ve made it a priority to strengthen our partnership with the Yemeni government—training and equipping their security forces, sharing intelligence and working with them to strike Al-Queda terrorists.” --President Obama
“He was corrupt and autocratic, but he was also committed to fighting Al-Qaeda and keeping his fractious country together.” --Sec of State Hillary Clinton about Yemeni President Saleh
The Yemen Model was a success until it wasn’t.
Yemeni journalist and activist, TAWAKKOL KARMAN, won the 2011 Nobel Peace Prize for her role in Yemen’s Arab Spring protest movement.
“I believe the Iranian supreme leader makes Hitler look good. The supreme leader is trying to conquer the world. He wants to create his own project in the Middle East very much like Hitler who wanted to expand at the time.” --Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (aka MbS) said in 2018
“IRAN is not carrying out this activity only in Yemen, it is conducting the same activity in Lebanon, in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and in Pakistan.” --UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan said in 2015
‘IRAN helped to create Hezbollah in the early 1980s and “armed, trained and otherwise nurtured it” since.’-wrote Daniel Byman, a scholar
President Trump’s approach to the Middle East rested on two principles: 1) unbridled support for allies, especially Israel and Saudi Arabia and 2) ratcheting up coercive pressure on IRAN.
Secretary Pompeo described the HOUTHIS as “completely under the boot of the Iranians”.
Ending a civil war is notoriously difficult. As Barbara Walters research has shown, civil wars have historically been less likely to end in negotiated settlement than in victory for one side because the parties face a commitment problem: it is difficult for the combatants themselves to agree to credible terms for disarmament.
The GFA-Global Fragility Act signed into las in December 2019 provides a platform for shifting the USA approach to security toward conflict prevention and mitigation instead of crisis reaction.
The fact that the GFA authorizes $1.15 Billion in funding in its first five years will be critical to its success. The USA should continue to expand its investments in conflict prevention and mitigation efforts.
‘If civilians are dying in war but these events are not carefully documented...these deaths will “be dealt with as if they are not happening”.’--Radhya Al-Mutawaken, Co-Founder and Chair of Mwatana for Human Rights and an independent Yemeni NGO (non-governmental organization).
RETHINK HUMANITARIAN AID: The USA has provided Yemen with more than $4 Billion in humanitarian aid since the war began in 2014. In fiscal year 2021, over 98% of economic aid to Yemen from the USA was in the emergency response or food sectors.
HOW CAN WE CHANGE US POLICY?
Americans do care about what their government does around the world, and that matters.
REWRITING THE NARRATIVE
...too often, Americans perceive the Middle East as a region dominated only by failed states, war, and misery. UI/S media rarely tell the stories of everyday life in the Middle East. Ask about the aspirations and visions of people from the region itself.
“...war is always in the background...but that doesn't mean you are the war, or you are the famine. You are a human who’s trying to survive. You adapt. You still find laughter. You still find a way to pursue your life...” --Mariam Al-Dhubhani, A Yemeni Russian journalist and filmmaker
HOUTHI forces still control much of Northern Yemen, the majority of Yemen’s population, and most government institutions and military resources.
Southern Yemen has in many ways become de facto separated from the North, with military groups affiliated with the STC=Southern Transitional Council.
The USA could assist Yemenis in ending the war and welcoming in a new political future. But it cannot do so by sticking with the old approach.
I learned a lot about U.S. Policy in the Middle East under Obama, Trump and Biden. The author, Alexandra Stark, is a brilliant researcher at RAND Corporation. I was impressed by all that she compiled and organized.
I never even knew that the UAE (United Arab Emirates) was made up of seven emirates? Can you name one? I guessed one and was correct: DUBAI. The other six are ABU DHABI, SHARJAH, RAL AL KHAIMAH, AJMAN, UMM AL QUWAIN and FUJAIRAH.
To this day, Sept. 6, 2024, Yemen is still experiencing conflict. The primary conflict is between HOUTHI rebels and the internationally recognized Yemeni government which is backed by a Saudi Arabia led coalition. THE HOUTHI rebels are supported by IRAN, and they control the capital of Sanna and much of Northern Yemen. In addition to this primary conflict there are other factions like the STC: Southern Transitional Council which seeks an Independent Southern Yemen. AQAP: Al-Queda in the Arabian Peninsula also remains active in the region.
Despite ongoing peace talks and some periods of reduced violence the situation is still complex and volatile. The humanitarian crisis remains severe with millions of Yemenis in need of aid.
The scary factoid in my view (after doing my own research outside of the book) is that the HOUTHI MOVEMENT is officially known as ‘Ansar Allah’ = ‘Supporters of God’. They are a Shia Islamist political and military organization the emerged in Yemen in the 1990s. And the scary factoid is their five-line slogan:
God is the Greatest
Death to America
Death to Israel
Curse the Jews
Victory to Islam
Here are the portions I underlined in the book for my own understanding of the complexities of it all:
While Yemen was already the poorest country in the Middle East, by the end of the first decade of this century, the economy was in particularly dire straits. Unemployment was up 34 percent, with youth unemployment almost doubling between 1999 and 2008. Commodity price shocks in 2007 and 2008 led to a 60 percent rise in food prices, contributing to increased poverty.
“The Yemen Model is an ‘intelligence-driven, dynamic targeting’ that uses drone strikes to disrupt terrorist groups.” --Steve Simon, an Advisor to the Obama Administration
The Yemen Model worked—more or less-- as designed, allowing the US to contain AQAP (Al-Queda in the Arabian Peninsula) via drone strikes and maintain its partnership with Yemeni government forces, all without deploying a significant number of US troops on the ground.
AQAP (Al-Queda in the Arabian Peninsula), a terrorist group in Yemen formed from the merger of Al-Qaeda's Saudi and Yemeni branches.
“Drone strikes are the face of America to many Yemeni’s” ...this means that “strikes often cause animosity towards the USA and create a backlash that undermines the national security goals of the USA.”
“I’ve made it a priority to strengthen our partnership with the Yemeni government—training and equipping their security forces, sharing intelligence and working with them to strike Al-Queda terrorists.” --President Obama
“He was corrupt and autocratic, but he was also committed to fighting Al-Qaeda and keeping his fractious country together.” --Sec of State Hillary Clinton about Yemeni President Saleh
The Yemen Model was a success until it wasn’t.
Yemeni journalist and activist, TAWAKKOL KARMAN, won the 2011 Nobel Peace Prize for her role in Yemen’s Arab Spring protest movement.
“I believe the Iranian supreme leader makes Hitler look good. The supreme leader is trying to conquer the world. He wants to create his own project in the Middle East very much like Hitler who wanted to expand at the time.” --Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (aka MbS) said in 2018
“IRAN is not carrying out this activity only in Yemen, it is conducting the same activity in Lebanon, in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and in Pakistan.” --UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan said in 2015
‘IRAN helped to create Hezbollah in the early 1980s and “armed, trained and otherwise nurtured it” since.’-wrote Daniel Byman, a scholar
President Trump’s approach to the Middle East rested on two principles: 1) unbridled support for allies, especially Israel and Saudi Arabia and 2) ratcheting up coercive pressure on IRAN.
Secretary Pompeo described the HOUTHIS as “completely under the boot of the Iranians”.
Ending a civil war is notoriously difficult. As Barbara Walters research has shown, civil wars have historically been less likely to end in negotiated settlement than in victory for one side because the parties face a commitment problem: it is difficult for the combatants themselves to agree to credible terms for disarmament.
The GFA-Global Fragility Act signed into las in December 2019 provides a platform for shifting the USA approach to security toward conflict prevention and mitigation instead of crisis reaction.
The fact that the GFA authorizes $1.15 Billion in funding in its first five years will be critical to its success. The USA should continue to expand its investments in conflict prevention and mitigation efforts.
‘If civilians are dying in war but these events are not carefully documented...these deaths will “be dealt with as if they are not happening”.’--Radhya Al-Mutawaken, Co-Founder and Chair of Mwatana for Human Rights and an independent Yemeni NGO (non-governmental organization).
RETHINK HUMANITARIAN AID: The USA has provided Yemen with more than $4 Billion in humanitarian aid since the war began in 2014. In fiscal year 2021, over 98% of economic aid to Yemen from the USA was in the emergency response or food sectors.
HOW CAN WE CHANGE US POLICY?
Americans do care about what their government does around the world, and that matters.
REWRITING THE NARRATIVE
...too often, Americans perceive the Middle East as a region dominated only by failed states, war, and misery. UI/S media rarely tell the stories of everyday life in the Middle East. Ask about the aspirations and visions of people from the region itself.
“...war is always in the background...but that doesn't mean you are the war, or you are the famine. You are a human who’s trying to survive. You adapt. You still find laughter. You still find a way to pursue your life...” --Mariam Al-Dhubhani, A Yemeni Russian journalist and filmmaker
HOUTHI forces still control much of Northern Yemen, the majority of Yemen’s population, and most government institutions and military resources.
Southern Yemen has in many ways become de facto separated from the North, with military groups affiliated with the STC=Southern Transitional Council.
The USA could assist Yemenis in ending the war and welcoming in a new political future. But it cannot do so by sticking with the old approach.
October 12, 2024
This book is a really solid resource on the Yemen conflict. Alexandra Stark also has some interesting things to say on regional developments in the aftermath of the Arab Spring more generally. The most important thing about Stark's project is that it's a critique of Washington, DC policy, coming from inside the house. This is something we rarely see. I'm usually wary of attempting to judge a scholar's degree of affiliation with the military industrial complex, but if you work at the Rand Corporation, it's not a difficult determination. It is pleasantly surprising to see someone with Stark's position who is willing to call out the massive failures of our policies. It may even be a little courageous on her part.
She doesn't go far enough for my taste, of course. But it's still very refreshing to see such a high profile book pointing out how our counter-terror policies helped to dismantle Yemen ( and led to more terror ). It wasn't emphasized as much as I would, but it was still thrilling to see someone call out our idiotic policy of outsourcing our regional policy to conflicting Gulf monarchies. Stark acknowledges that things have gone terribly wrong in the region, she sees the role US policy has played in that, and she seeks to develop a list of policies that might improve things. This alone makes the book worth your time. I also found it to be a helpful refresher on the Yemen conflict. It was a useful guide/antagonist as I put together my own account of Yemen's conflict.
But it is not a perfect book. Many of my quibbles were an expected result of my more dissident approach to the conflict, and US foreign policy in general. But I thought some of the analysis was just wrong. Her attempt to present two different phases of Saudi/UAE intervention after the Arab Spring, one more open to change, and one more reactionary, struck me as incorrect. The Gulf monarchies were pretty consistent throughout, shoring up old allies and attacking old enemies. To make her chronology work, she has to kind of leave Egypt out of her Arab Spring analysis, which is a bit odd. I also noticed other glaring errors, minor, like mistaking Thomas Massie for a Democrat, or major, like her assertion that the Houthis boycotted Yemen's National Dialogue Conference, which I do not believe they did. On a broader level, I found her faith in the continued utility of the anti-Houthi resistance, despite her quite damning chronicle of their failings, to be a bit misplaced. But that is the company line.
All in all a worthy, if flawed, effort.
She doesn't go far enough for my taste, of course. But it's still very refreshing to see such a high profile book pointing out how our counter-terror policies helped to dismantle Yemen ( and led to more terror ). It wasn't emphasized as much as I would, but it was still thrilling to see someone call out our idiotic policy of outsourcing our regional policy to conflicting Gulf monarchies. Stark acknowledges that things have gone terribly wrong in the region, she sees the role US policy has played in that, and she seeks to develop a list of policies that might improve things. This alone makes the book worth your time. I also found it to be a helpful refresher on the Yemen conflict. It was a useful guide/antagonist as I put together my own account of Yemen's conflict.
But it is not a perfect book. Many of my quibbles were an expected result of my more dissident approach to the conflict, and US foreign policy in general. But I thought some of the analysis was just wrong. Her attempt to present two different phases of Saudi/UAE intervention after the Arab Spring, one more open to change, and one more reactionary, struck me as incorrect. The Gulf monarchies were pretty consistent throughout, shoring up old allies and attacking old enemies. To make her chronology work, she has to kind of leave Egypt out of her Arab Spring analysis, which is a bit odd. I also noticed other glaring errors, minor, like mistaking Thomas Massie for a Democrat, or major, like her assertion that the Houthis boycotted Yemen's National Dialogue Conference, which I do not believe they did. On a broader level, I found her faith in the continued utility of the anti-Houthi resistance, despite her quite damning chronicle of their failings, to be a bit misplaced. But that is the company line.
All in all a worthy, if flawed, effort.
July 14, 2025
A fascinating read with a lot of information which has passed my generation by, mostly due to the proximity of it to our times, and the fact that we were children during these events. From a historiographical perspective- this book is amazing.
However, I disagree with the book’s blame assignment which exclusively falls upon the Saudi-Emirati coalition yet somehow reflects worse upon the USA. I am sorry, but i cannot be convinced to care for the lives of Islamic terrorists, be they citizens of Yemen, UAE, or fucking Vatican City. It is a strange dereliction of duty that the book completely overlooks the recent attacks upon shipping as well as the many attacks upon neighboring states, instead preferring to somewhat sympathize with the Houthis for whatever insane neoliberal self-hating reason.
However, I disagree with the book’s blame assignment which exclusively falls upon the Saudi-Emirati coalition yet somehow reflects worse upon the USA. I am sorry, but i cannot be convinced to care for the lives of Islamic terrorists, be they citizens of Yemen, UAE, or fucking Vatican City. It is a strange dereliction of duty that the book completely overlooks the recent attacks upon shipping as well as the many attacks upon neighboring states, instead preferring to somewhat sympathize with the Houthis for whatever insane neoliberal self-hating reason.
April 29, 2024
A good primer on the Yemeni Civil War and the intersection with American politics. It covers a lot of ground even for Yemen watchers such as myself.
April 2, 2025
A solid and comprehensive overview, assessment, and critique of U.S. involvement in the conflict in Yemen. Would recommend.
Displaying 1 - 5 of 5 reviews