[Note: There are multiple books with the same title as this one.]
Written by historian and author of a related volume, The Arab Uprising: What Everyone Needs to Know, this book could have been titled “The Contemporary History of the Middle East.” Here, “The Middle East” is defined as spanning from Morocco on the west to Iran on the east, a region more dependent on oil revenues that any other part of the world and comprising about half a billion people. The term “The New Middle East” was coined by US Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice, and later elaborated upon in the journal Foreign Affairs by policy analyst Richard N. Haass [p. 21], when the old, relatively-peaceful ME (from the US viewpoint) came crashing down with the invasion of Iraq.
Gelvin begins by discussing the region’s past, 1945-2011, which he entitles “Before the Deluge” (ch. 1, pp. 1-23) and an overview of the Arab Uprisings (ch. 2, pp. 24-49). He then discusses the Syria embroglio (ch. 3, pp. 50-81), the rise and decline of ISIS (ch. 4, pp. 82-111), patrons, proxies, and freelancers (ch. 5, pp. 112-136), and human security in the New Middle East (ch. 6, pp. 137-167). There is no separate concluding section to wrap up the discussions and to point to what might be expected in the future, perhaps because any predictions for such a volatile region may turn out to be embarrassingly inaccurate.
According to Gelvin, five elements were responsible for popular uprisings, which had the dual goals of demanding rights/democracy and pressing for better economic conditions, in the Arab world. Bear in mind, though, that none of these elements was a key cause and, even with all of them in place, the uprisings weren’t inevitable. Overall, the uprisings, with the possible exception of Tunisia’s, were less than successful in bringing about major structural changes. Nowhere was this failure more pronounced than in Syria, owing to it having no Tahrir-Square-like epicenter and the army not standing down [p. 83].
1. Neo-liberalism: Having taken roots in the Arab world in the 1970s, neo-liberalism and its attendant economic reforms allowed Arab countries to get connected to and benefit from international markets and sources of credit.
2. Human rights revolution: Developing in tandem with neo-liberalism since the 1970s, the human rights and democratic rights movements were used by both liberal and regressive opponents of the region’s regimes to weaken them.
3. Brittleness of Arab regimes: The region’s regimes were caught between recommended austerity measures on the one hand and increased demand for government services on the other. Around the same time, governments in Western countries began to fall due to popular anger. The Arab world lacked such a safety valve, as people could not oust governments (politicians), so they focused on overthrowing the regime (“nizam”).
4. Demography: An increase in the number of young people under 30 and the attendant rise in unemployment and under-employment, led to economic hardships across the region.
5. Global rise in food prices: Widespread droughts around the world and changes in agricultural priorities and patterns intensified the economic hardships that had arisen from demography and rampant unemployment.
These factors affected each of the region’s countries in a different way. Monarchies, by and large, escaped serious consequences, in part due to using their oil wealth to buy out their opponents. However, the survival of Morocco’s monarchy is a puzzle, given that the country lacks oil.
Talking about the Middle East as a whole is challenging, because the countries in the region are not homogeneous. Arab women have the least political participation in the world, yet Israeli, Turkish, and, to some extent, Iranian women are relatively active.
I will list some of the key features of the New Middle East in the next few paragraphs.
Refugee crises [pp. 76-77]: The Syrian civil war has intensified sectarian conflicts in all countries of the region. Syrian refugees have doubled Lebanon’s unemployment rate to 20% and have caused major economic hardships in Turkey and Jordan. Many Iraqi refugees who had settled in Syria were forced to seek refuge back in Iraq, hardly a safer place.
US-Israel relations [p. 120]: The US has become wary of extending unconditional support to Israel. “Obama’s administration was not the first to have abstained or supported UN resolutions critical of Israel ... George W. Bush’s allowed 6 such resolutions to pass, George H. W. Bush’s allowed 9, and Ronald Reagan’s allowed 21.”
Human security [p. 137]: The term “security” often means the security of states and governments. The term “human security” has been coined to shift the focus to those factors that make populations unsafe. The Middle East today is the second most urbanized region in the world (after Latin America). Megapolises with very limited human services form a major cause of human insecurity.
Water shortage and climate-change vulnerabilities [pp. 141-144]: Three Arab countries (Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait) are already below water poverty line, defined as being able to use 50 liters of water daily for drinking and personal hygiene. There is no general agreement on whether the recent temperature spikes in the region are aberrations or omens of a new normal.
Poverty and health problems [p. 157]: Whereas income poverty prevails in the region, despite its vast natural resources, human poverty, which includes also quality of life and the sense of well-being, is even worse. The Middle East is the second most obese region in the world, after the South Pacific.
Let me end my review by quoting the book’s final paragraph [p. 167]: “The breadth and depth of the protests and uprisings that have engulfed the Arab world, Iran, Turkey, and Israel indicate that agitation for good governance is not a transient or localized phenomenon in the Middle East. As such, the history of the past thirty years cannot but disturb the sleep of politicians, kings, and dictators throughout the region.”