Scary Smart explores the potential for artificial intelligence (AI) to upend (and perhaps even end) life as we know it.
The book is chock-a-block full of pant-shitting possibilities, dystopian scenarios, ethical hairballs and cautionary thought experiments, bookended by some FAR less convincing reasons to not panic.
Why it’s enough to keep you up at night I tell you!!!
The author, Mo Gawdat is the former director of Google X, the “infamous” Xerox Park/DARPA style “moonshot factory” where Goole researches and develops their more leading edge stuff like: 1. Waymo: Googles self-driving car project thing. 2. Google Glass: googles early attempt at smart glasses. 3. Wing: googles drone delivery project. And 4. Project Makani: An effort to generate electricity using airborne wind turbines.
Despite the fact that none of that shit EVER seems to pan out, he REALLY seems to know what he’s talking about.
Anyway.
Google X under Gawdat was DEEPLY invested in AI and Quantum Computing. The intersection of which is where all the SERIOUS concerns come from.
According to Gawdat, AI’s about to TAKE THE FUCK OFF, and we’re DEFINITELY NOT READY for what happens next.
Technologies typically develop along a sigmoid trajectory, whereby progress slowly ramps up, then escalates exponentially (along with interest, investment, adaptation and social impact) and eventually levels off as the limits of the technology are reached along with diminishing returns.
If you consider the impact the the internet has had on our world over the past 30 years. It followed a sigmoid trajectory, whereby the it begins to be widely adopted around 1995, slowly ramps up in public interest, investment, adaptation and impact over the next 25 years with mass adaptation, and eventually levels off as the limits of our current tech paradigm are reached.
That’s where we probably are with our current tech.
But according to Gowat, we’re at the beginning of a similar, but WAY more consequential sigmoid with AI.
And GET FUCKING READY.
EVERYTHING’S about to change.
Gawdat discusses Alpha Go as a case example of a self improving deep learning approach to AI that dusted the best human GO players as an appetizer (in case you don’t know, GO is a ridiculously difficult and complex strategy game that makes chess look like checkers). And then competed with itself to continue learning and improving. To the point that it’s now SCARY good. BILLIONS of times better than the best human.
And we basically have NO FUCKING IDEA how it does it.
Because we’re (basically) just too damn dumb.
GO FIGURE!
Gawdat additionally asserts that quantum computing (QC) is just now coming on line and it’s already leaving classical computing (CC) in its taillights. QC is already solving problems in mere hours minutes and seconds, that it would ostensibly take CC years and even decades to churn through, even when factoring for Moors Law etc.
And according to Gowat, even without QC, AI is hitting an inflection point, where it is self improving, whereby the law of doubling (exponential sigmoid shaped growth). But the addition of QC means that AI will likely be BILLIONS of times more intelligent that humans, within our lifetime.
As such.
Shit will all but inevitably go wrong.
VERY MUCH WRONG.
Like potentially WORLD ENDING PEOPLE DYING WRONG.
How so?
Well.
Think about the last time you swatted a fly or a mosquito. It was probably hard to garner much empathy for the insect. Conversely, it was ostensibly IMPOSSIBLE for the insect to even come anywhere near understanding you, your motivations, your abilities, your traps, or your next move.
Thats an approximation of the difference between our human abilities and the super-intelligence we’re about to give birth to and by default become completely dependent upon.
Still not convinced?
Think about how bad the COVID-19 thing was handled.
Now consider that AI will be WAY more dangerous and WAY less manageable and WAY WAY more profitable.
And that’s the bottom line.
Even a SLIGHT advantage in the AI game will confer MASSIVE financial and strategic benefits to the holder. As such, anyone who wants remain alive and kicking will need to buy in and stay in till the bitter end.
Before too long.
We will be entangled.
It’s hard to remember how different life was before smart phones. That is, until the internet goes out and you have like NOTHING happening, and you can’t tolerate existing.
Todays smart phones are not actually smart.
They do what we tell them to do.
According to Gawdat.
In 30 years.
AI will be doing things we can’t POSSIBLY understand.
Including regulating our environment and economy and everything else computers currently do, and a whole lot more that we simply can’t predict, because we won’t be the ones inventing it or even making it anymore.
At that point.
We will be passengers instead of drivers.
That is, until we are more of a liability than an asset.
Ultimately, Gowdat is cautiously optimistic.
But from my perspective.
The arguments he makes for his cautious optimism are WEAK, and nowhere NEAR as compelling as his arguments for his concerns. In fact, the reason I’m deducting 2 points from this otherwise pretty entertaining, engaging and thought provoking book is because the solution Gawdat proposes is (for me) deeply unsatisfying, and about equally as implausible.
Basically, Gawdat proposes that we raise AI as if it were one of our children, and hope it takes care of us as if we were it’s aging parents.
Ummm 🤔
That’s not very reassuring.
Based on the EXTREME LEVEL of plausible concern the first 90% of the book elicits. That particular solution doesn’t seem like it will cut the mustard.
Im not an AI/QC expert.
But I am a marital family therapist (MFT).
And if my experience with families is any indicator.
That’s not going to work.
Plus CAPITALISM is destructive (as you may have noticed).
It seems like we’re going to need a better solution than that.
ANYWAY:
Read the book.
But consider yourself warned RE the 10/1 ratio of FEAR to HOPE you will feel afterwards.
3/5 stars ⭐️