Countering China’s Great Game: A Strategy for American Dominance

by Michael Scott Sobolik

The United States is in the midst of a new cold war with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and America is losing. That claim, at the core of Michael Sobolik’s new book Countering China’s Great A Strategy for American Dominance, challenges the Washington, D.C. conventional wisdom about U.S.-China relations. Officials in Washington are reacting to the CCP and playing defense. Like America’s efforts to contain the Soviet Union in the twentieth-century Cold War, the United States needs a strategic vision to overcome the CCP. Sobolik offers a plan for American victory over the CCP and presents a roadmap to sabotage the crux of the CCP’s foreign the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). At its core, the BRI is not an economic venture. It is a geopolitical gambit. Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s “project of the century” has entered its second leveraging yesterday’s investments for today’s political and military ends. Xi will never do away with the BRI because it is strengthening Beijing’s strategic position from Southeast Asia and the Pacific Islands to Africa and Latin America. The BRI is the apotheosis of the CCP’s grand strategy. America needs a blueprint to take it down. Sobolik provides this blueprint by identifying the BRI’s core imperial overstretch. After identifying China’s penchant for empire-building, he identifies the BRI’s key weaknesses globally and traces them back to the CCP’s vulnerabilities at home. Sobolik’s work offers policymakers a plan to go on the offense and win America’s new cold war.

Genres: China, Politics

240 pages, Hardcover

Published April 15, 2024

Reviews

[Christian D. D. · Rating 5 out of 5]

My friend Michael Sobolik (whom I first met at the 2022 China Forum sponsored by the Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation [VOC]), Senior Fellow in Indo-Pacific Studies, American Foreign Policy Council, has written a superb and very timely book, a must read for anyone who gives a tinker's damn about China.

I purchased this book directly from Michael himself when he promoted it at an event at the Hudson Institute -- a prestigious Washington, Dc public policy think tank -- this past April. Michzel was nice enough to personally inscribe my copy of the book thusly:

"Christian,

Thanks for coming today!

Let’s win this Cold War."

Amen to that! And now that I've finally finished reading the book, I can affirm that Mr. Sobolik comes up with a solid prescription for winning this new cold War (and thus hopefully avoiding the necessity of a kinetic shooting war), by eschewing both (1) the "naive triumphalism" of the China doves (or as I prefer to call them, the "China appeasers" and (2) the strictly reactive, defensive approach of the China hawks, and being more proactive and going on offense (just like the Reagan Administration did with the Soviet Union back in the 1980s).

Mr. Sobolik also delves deeply into history, pointing out that China's quest for imperial hegemony far predates the existence of the Chinese Communist Party, indeed going back multiple millennia. And, with brutal frankness, he calls out America's political bigwigs from both parties (Nixon, Kissinger, both Bushes, Carter, Clinton, and Biden alike) and Corporate America, whose well-intentioned but ultimately misguided missteps in China policy helped bolster CCP power and got us in the mess we're in today.

Now for some of my favorite passages from the book (as well as some of my random, stream-of-consciousness reactions)...

--“While projects have been slow to materialize, the PRC has leveraged its potential to blunt Washington’s and New Delhi’s overtures at key moments, including scuttling Nepal’s partnership with the U.S. National Guard.”—p. 62

Ugh, as a military veteran myself, my curiosity is piqued; I’ll have to read up more on that one.

--“According to a publicized letter Risch sent the
DFC, eighteen out of twenty-one DFC solar projects sourced solar panels from the PRC.”—p. 86
Ugh, freakin' solar panels and all their advocates' "green-friendly" grandstanding

--“We must rediscover why we won the first cold war, if we are to win the one we are currently fighting.”—p. 88
AMEN!!

--“Understanding the causes of China’s past imperial failures shines much-needed light on the soft underbelly of the Belt and Road today”—p. 100
Now to rip into that soft underbelly...

--“From AD 612-614, China invaded Korea three times and suffered defeat on each occasion.”—p. 101
Will history repeat itself in Taiwan?

--“Whatever the reason, doubts are festering not only about the BRI’s ability to solve China’s internal economic problems but also about the initiative’s solvency…This decidedly mixed track record has soured global public opinion about the Belt and Road.”—p. 105
Time to capitalize on that!

--“According to Ian Easton, ‘If we continue to fund that and support that with our American capital and technology and managerial know-how and engineering know-how, then we will lose and they will win. They will not have imperial overreach and imperial overstretch because they’ll have our help, and they’ll use our funding to do it.’”—p. 107

Hey, I know that dude! Spot-on, Ian!

“But even if the Belt and Road avoids physical catastrophe, can it actually deliver for Beijing politically? Herein lies the project’s true weakness.”—p. 110
Again, time to capitalize!

--"In Casino Royale, author Ian Fleming paints James Bond as indifferent toward gambling...Although casinos are banned within the PRC (with the notable exception of Macau), the CCP shares Bond's philosophy and has instrumentalized illicit activity in increasingly creative ways."--p. 115

Yeah, except Agent 007 fought the forces of evil, whilst the PRC/CCP *is* a force of evil.

--"As revealed in the case of Malaysia and the Broken Tooth crime ring, American strength often creates room for our allies and partners to stand up and assert their own interests. Elected leaders in Washington must lead and create room for our friends and allies to join us in containing CCP expansion."--p. 119

Speaking myself as a former Federal law enforcement officer (CBP Officer and ICE Special Agent) who worked multiple cases with ChiCom nexus, I concur wholeheartedly!

--"Officials at the Voice of America, the principal public diplomacy arm of the United States, are privately exasperated by the lack of willingness from both Republican and Democratic administrations to engage VOA and take the time to explain U.S. policy to foreign audiences."--p. 123

My Jay Heisler, Canada reporter for VOA (who's been featured in my Patreon as a guest columnist several times) can vouch for this!

--"As former Senator Diane Feinstein put it at the time, 'We can work for change in China, as the benefits of trade and rising living standards bring about the goals we seek, or we can deal antagonistically with China and lose our leverage in guiding China along paths of positive economic development.' The United States lost its greatest source of leverage by following the advice of Feinstein, [then-Congressman Pat] Toomey, and others."--p. 131

Ugh, just another reminder why I utterly despised Diane Feinstein and had to leave my former home state, the People's Republic of Kaliforniastan (PRK).

Long story short, Michael Sobolik's "Countering China’s Great Game: A Strategy for American Dominance" gets my highest recommendation! Well-done, Michael!

[esther · Rating 3 out of 5]

you kind of have to read other more extensive sources in this field before you read this book-- while other books look more extensively at Chinese strategy and give more detailed evidence, this book gives more of a status overview and then a policy recommendation.
maybe i would have liked the policy recommendations more if my midterm didn't ask me to critique it LOL. i think that Sobolik has some very good ideas that we could pursue further, however, and I will keep thinking about this 🫡

[John Shelton · Rating 5 out of 5]

This book makes for the perfect China policy starter kit. A must-read for congressional staff and those who would be informed in current debates around the United States’ evolving relationship with China.

[Chad Manske · Rating 4 out of 5]

Sobolik’s “Countering China’s Great Game: A Strategy for American Dominance,” offers an incisive and thought-provoking analysis of the geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China. Sobolik, a seasoned analyst with deep expertise in foreign policy, crafts a strategic roadmap for how America can navigate and counter China's expanding influence on the global stage. The book is structured around a comprehensive examination of China’s strategic ambitions, which Sobolik adeptly terms the "Great Game." He meticulously details China's multifaceted approach, which includes economic initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative, military modernization, and technological advancements. Sobolik underscores the importance of understanding these dimensions to formulate an effective counter-strategy. He delves into the ways Beijing leverages economic leverage, political influence, and soft power to reshape global norms and institutions in its favor. The author provides a sobering analysis of the potential implications for global stability and American interests if these trends go unchecked. Sobolik does not merely diagnose the problem; he offers a robust set of recommendations aimed at ensuring American dominance. His strategy emphasizes the need for the U.S. to strengthen alliances, invest in technological innovation, and adopt a more assertive posture in international forums. He argues for a holistic approach that integrates economic, military, and diplomatic efforts to effectively counter China’s ambitions. Sobolik’s arguments are well-supported by a wealth of data and case studies, which add depth and credibility to his analysis. While the book presents a clear stance on the need for American dominance, it maintains a neutral tone by focusing on strategic imperatives rather than ideological rhetoric. This balanced approach allows readers from diverse perspectives to appreciate the intricacies of the U.S.-China rivalry and the strategic considerations involved. Overall, “Countering China’s Great Game” is a compelling and timely read that provides a nuanced understanding of one of the most critical issues in contemporary international relations. Sobolik’s strategic insights make it an essential read for policymakers, scholars, and anyone interested in the future of global power dynamics.

[Dale · Rating 3 out of 5]

Yep, China bad. Noted. The book is well organized and references other works on the rise of China and the CCP's goals and objectives. Ends with we must do something.

[Rick Davis · Rating 5 out of 5]

I recently heard Michael Sobolik interviewed by Aaron Mclean on his podcast, School of War, and became fascinated by Sobolik's comments and insights into the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The interview centered around geopolitics and when the episode concluded, I purchased the book.

For those who are interested in the history of China, current events, or want to learn more about the BRI, this is a good source. This is also a good source for those who understand the threats of the Chinese Communist Party, and certainly a fantastic source for those who are CCP apologists.

[Jerome · Rating 4 out of 5]

Policy

Good recap and summary of China's policies and issues and some very interesting recommendations on how the US can counter China

[Jacob Mattson · Rating 2 out of 5]

2.5

[John Landes · Rating 5 out of 5]

Get your hands on this book if you have even the slightest interest in world affairs.. spoiler - you should!