思考外包的陷阱：在「快答案」的世界，我們如何重建常識、擴充思維？

by Vikram Mansharamani

「2020年最重要的一本領導書」

──Leadership Now倡議

★《華爾街日報》商業暢銷書★

共同薦讀──

李濠仲／《上報》主筆、作家

黃貞祥（Gene）／國立清華大學生命科學系助理教授

黃益中／公民教師、《思辨》作者

管中祥／國立中正大學傳播學系教授

（按姓氏筆畫排序）

21****世紀充滿不確定，讓人難以招架。

數據爆炸、選擇激增，這使我們習慣向AI算法與專家達人尋求最佳化與低風險的解答──但這也極危險地讓個人的智力活動開始凋敝。

我們必須學會重新開拓眼界、找回主見、練習自行判斷。

2014 年，正值伊波拉病毒疫情的高峰期，一名男子剛從賴比瑞亞返回美國，因為發燒和腹痛就醫──院方卻讓他返家了。醫護人員雖然知道這名男子剛從伊波拉病毒的疫區回來，卻都不認為他感染了伊波拉病毒。男子確診染疫後病逝不久，照顧過他的其中一名護士搭飛機時，因為體溫未達禁飛標準，得以登機。後來這名護士確診感染伊波拉病毒。整起事件裡的專家因為過於遵守規定，把判斷力和常理擱置一邊了，最後疫情沒像電影《全境擴散》（Contagion）那般失控，靠得全是運氣。

怎麼會發生這種事？全球趨勢觀察家維克拉姆‧曼莎拉瑪尼這麼認為：因為我們太盲目聽從專家、規定與科技，不再自主思考了。（你是否曾跟著 GPS 導航規劃的最佳路線駕駛，結果不僅沒有比較快到達目的地，反而離目的地更遠了？）

本書的靈感最初來自一篇作者於《哈佛商業評論》撰寫的《通才萬歲》，這篇文章引起了廣泛的迴響，人們對於科技與起帶來的權威性解答充滿疑懼，又期待能找回新的思考自主性。

於是，這位哈佛大學講師暨全球趨勢觀察者決定延續展出這本令人大開眼界、刷新想法的著作；他敏銳的觀察到：在現下複雜且資訊氾濫的世界，我們比以往都更依賴專家、規章，與科技，而不再自己思考了。從商業、體育和日常生活的各式各樣案例，我們都已在實質意義上把「思考」外包，從而放棄了自主權……；從航空器的自動駕駛災難到現代醫學的可能盲區，本書將提出豐富的案例、激盪新的思考習慣，讓專業與資訊回到輔助，使常理與獨立思辨的精神歸來。

沒錯，我們仍須仰賴專家、規定和科技的幫助。但我們仍要保有自主權，不再盲目地被專家牽著鼻子走、陷入專家狹窄的視野裡。我們必須要能同時具備深度與廣度，主動整合專家、科技提供的建議，靠自己做決定。對此，作者透過不同領域的真人真事，以鮮明生動的文筆、強而有力的分析，提供了幾項原則和技巧，幫助讀者重拾自主思考力。

想在這個充斥不確定性、眾多問題相互牽連、高度複雜的 21 世紀中，重拾自主權，本書是本不可或缺的指南。

Genres: Nonfiction, Psychology, Business, Personal Development, Artificial Intelligence, Self Help, Personal Growth

Published February 1, 2021

Reviews

[Greg · Rating 5 out of 5]

Looking at the overall scheme of things I ponder while reading this, I am thankful for the ideas shared by Dr. Vikram Mansharamani in this book. It is not easy for me nowadays to pause and question what our experts are telling the world. My default assumption is that our experts knew their domains well and have already considered multiple perspectives before providing their insights. While one perspective maybe true for one, it may not necessarily apply for another.

In this book Vikram discusses how experts are living inside the bubble of their specializations and failing to consider other aspects of certain situations; thereby resulting to unintended consequences like death.

My journey in this book was not easy only because I kept on stopping every now and then to debate and ask questions why Vikram said this and that. Eventually my questions were answered as I went through all the chapters. I guess thinking for oneself is a great mental workout.

I also appreciate the way less formal writing style used here as well as the use of funny punch lines from time to time (drum roll please..)

Of course not all readers will agree with the premises (or maybe the conclusions) in this book. But if you read this book, finish it until the end. You may not agree but at least you are thinking for yourself. This book somehow feels like a novel, you’ll get to understand its essence once you read the whole.

[Irina · Rating 2 out of 5]

Despite the catchy title, there's not much new in this book. Reads like an HBR treatise in which the writer rehashes established cognitive science as a way to congratulate themselves on their own excellent choices.

[T Olsen · Rating 5 out of 5]

This book is, of course, written before the Covid-19 pandemic, which has really brought experts out in masses. Doctors, who want to save as many lives as possible, are now directing a destruction of our society in order to stop a relatively mild illness. Not necessarily mild for the affected, but for society in general. We should do the right things, not everything.
The book is very comprehensive, and is a "must read" for everyone. The writing is very good, with quite a few funny points, and it's well organized. Some of the examples or anecdotes may be a little too long, but this isn't a book you read in one sitting, and you get more for your money.

[Evan Prickett · Rating 1 out of 5]

The concept is excellent and I think the overall arguments are solid and valuable, but this book should've been about 50 pages long...

The book reads like a high school paper in which the student realizes halfway through that they don't have enough content, but bends over backwards to meet the minimum page requirement anyway. I half expected to see 1.1 inch margins and 16pt punctuation marks.

Throughout the entire book, the author would make a pretty clear point in half a page, then follow it up with 3 repetitive and often only tangentially related anecdotes over 5 pages. It felt like he was stretching for a way to include every single popular psychology or economics research study in existence, just because he thought they were cool and would take up space.

At one point he LITERALLY REPEATS A PARAGRAPH, starting with "Let me repeat that".

Do yourself a favor and Google "We're Drowning in Data OneZero" and read their interview with Mansharamani instead or reading this book. Same information in 10 minutes.

[M · Rating 3 out of 5]

This book is a godsend in our age of uncritical thinking and lack of perspective. Mansharamani has compiled an edifying and entertaining roadmap to navigate our endlessly diverting and suspiciously shallow world. This book is a breath of fresh air.

[Marios Gkionis · Rating 3 out of 5]

A book that thinks a bit too much of itself. Useful insights, but very repetitive, opinionated and lacks more elaborate-scientific explanations. Before spending time on this book, also consider that this author gave this book (a book about failures in finance, healthcare and tech) to his teenage son.

My points after reading the book:

😒: Too many simplistic anecdotes to support the author's views, barely any attempt to provide more rigorous, scientific explanations or draw from studies

😒: Repetitive up to annoying levels: For example, he uses the phrase "keep experts on tap, not on top". Almost typical of a guy who wants to get his hands on many tasks and become famous, sacrificing quality and excellence in the process.

😒: Although he does provide examples of great failures that were caused by over-reliance on experts, the author did not deliver in the area of providing any "frameworks" on how to figure out a good balance between trusting experts and searching on one's own. The book does a great job of alerting the reader of the dangers of over-relying on experts, but that's all there is to it.

🙂: Ideas are interconnected and the structure is such that reading this book is very easy

🙂: It is a good book for the reader who needs to introduce themselves to the dangers of trusting experts too much and to understand how this tendency came to be

[Matt · Rating 1 out of 5]

This definitely fits the "book that could have been an article" bucket. There are some interesting stories interspersed throughout the book, but very little novel insight that couldn't be gleaned from a 2-3 page summary. I also didn't particularly like the occasional heavy leaning on very well known books like Thinking Fast and Slow and The Invisible Gorilla, or the 3 page retelling of an Isaac Asimov short story. There were a few eyebrow raisers for me throughout as well such as frequent references to bad movies and misquoting Mike Tyson. This book had some amount of potential in the core thesis but there was enough that bothered me that I couldn't move past.

[Luís Gouveia · Rating 4 out of 5]

Um livro em defesa do pensamento sistémico autónomo, apoiado em especialistas, mas não dependente destes.
Desnvolve a sua posição de modo a sustentar que no contexto atual, a necessidade de pensamento crítico é ainda maior e deve e tem de ser realizada pela construção de decisão própria independente de terceiros.

É um excelente texto sobre o tema, ainda mais por alguém bem colocado para interagir com muitas personagens influentes na nossa sociedade. Cheio de histórias e algo tendencioso, é uma leitura agradável.

Em tese concordo que devemos formar a nossa opinião de modo autónomo ouvindo os especialistas de forma não cega. A questão é sempre a nossa capacidade de discirnimento e as histórias partilhadas são dos casos bons. No entanto, existem bem mais casos menos bons e o mundo não é tão binário que permita abordagens de alto nível. Mas proatividade e treinar o auto discirnimento é sempre uma boa opção e aquilo que nos torna humanos e que em comunidade deve ser praticado por todos. Com mais sabedoria, o conhecimento obtido não depende tanto da nossa partilha de dados, nem tão pouco da informação. Mas para isso ocorrer, todos nós temos de ter consciência dos nossos limites.

O livro termina bem melhor que começa e vai melhorando no valor da partilha.

[Stephanie · Rating 4 out of 5]

not bad, I appreciate the message... but man does the author accidentally turn himself into a "YEAH I GOT A WI-FI" kind of person. Sorry! I know you're trying to be endearing but it seems like you just resent your marriage based on the anecdotes I've read here?

[Steve Heitkamp · Rating 3 out of 5]

While I'm entirely aligned with the overall assessment of the book, I found it a bit anecdote heavy, and too quick to leverage easily accessible examples, particularly from movies. I have nothing against movies, however, I think there should be plenty of real-world examples to illustrate our tendency to rely to heavily on expertise.

I also felt like it was short on techniques for managing complexity and a world of experts other than some very general heuristics. Again, I don't disagree with many of the recommendations--try to step back and view a problem in a broader context, expose yourself to contrarian ideas, read/watch/explore things that are outside the canon of your 'specialty'...

maybe I just expected to more often think 'hmm, that is really interesting' than I did. Or maybe I spend too much time reading about human decision-making and machine augmentation and by reading this book I am going too far down the path of narrow specialization and my review is simply a reflection that this type of thinking is getting too ingrained into my thinking.

Maybe it is time to watch a movie.

[Zaid Zain · Rating 4 out of 5]

Book: Think For Yourself: Restoring Common Sense in an Age of Experts and Artificial Intelligence
Author: Vikram Mansharamani
Year: 2020
Who this book is for: For those looking to restore self-reliant thinking in a data-driven and technology-dependent yet overwhelmingly uncertain world.

Why am I reading this book?: Have always been fascinated by how people think, and what influences the choices we make.

What I like about the book: How it’s divided into four parts. Part 1 is the context, Part 2 the consequences of outsourcing your thinking, Part 3 is about how to reclaim your autonomy, and finally Part 4 is on how to move forward.

What I don't like about the book: Could turn down the anecdotes a bit.

Favourite Quotes: ”Ultimately, however, we must restore our autonomy. We need to retake control, which means we must learn to lead. Expert and technological input is essential, even if not sufficient. But we must always keep experts on tap, not on top. We are the artist, with full contextual knowledge, preparing our mosaic. Experts provide tiles. We should utilize these tiles as needed in the process of forming our map of how to proceed.”

TL;DR: Stop making a habit of outsourcing your thinking to devices, the internet, and experts without having a second thought. Reclaim your autonomy, and try to think critically. You are most aware of your goals, situation, and context. Consult the experts and utilize the tech tools, but realize that experts can err, and tools can have limitations. Think for yourself.

Will I read this again?: Likely.

Rating: 4/5

[David Knapp · Rating 4 out of 5]

I was excited to read this book after learning about its content in a review published in "Training and Development" magazine. After all, Mr Mansharamani covers a number of topics about which I am passionate:

1. Critical Thinking and Decision Making
2. Systems Thinking
3. The Importance of Breadth (Generalists) Over Depth (Experts)
4. The VUCA Environment (Although he never uses that term)
5. Embracing, Not Fearing, Ambiguity

Even with my interest in these topics, I must admit that I struggled at first to enjoy this book. The author has a writing style that can be a bit scattered. And he includes a number of sections in each chapter, which made me think the book is a collection of shorter essays that he blended into a full-length work.

But after a few chapters, I began to enjoy the book a lot. Yes, the above scattered writing style and approach to the topic kept me from giving it five stars. But the content, along with Mr. Mansharamani's passion for it, was engaging. And I have no doubt I will draw on this book in my work as a systems-thinking-based organizational consultant.

I'll wrap up this review with two wonderful quotes from the concluding chapter. The first is from Margaret Thatcher:

"Watch your thoughts for they become words; watch your words for they become actions; watch your actions for they become habits; watch your habits for they become your character. And watch your character for it becomes your destiny. What we think, we become." [p. 248]

And from legendary biologist E.O. Wilson:

"We are drowning in information, while starving for wisdom. The world henceforth will be run by synthesizers, people able to put together the right information at the right time, think critically about it, and make important choices wisely." [p. 249]

We can only hope Mr. Wilson's prediction plays out.

[Amy]

[DNF July 2021]

I got through the Preface, Introduction, and Part One of Think for Yourself before I couldn't take the author's pretentious smugness anymore and decided to put the book down. Supposedly, the thesis of this book is that people should examine all evidence before making the decision to follow expert opinion - despite the author admitting that there's a lot more things to know about a lot more fields and a lot less time to know it in than when there were know-it-all wunderkinds - but the first quarter of the book was all about bashing people who followed directions or didn't know any better regarding fields with which they were unfamiliar. Maybe the author gets to his thesis eventually, but I wasn't willing to invest my valuable time putting up with his attitude to find out. By the time he got to giving an example about a misunderstanding with, what sounded like, a newly hired DMV clerk, I knew I had no patience for this book. This is a book that I will be returning and not one that I would recommend.

[LY · Rating 3 out of 5]

這本整本都在講獨立思考的重要性（佐以大量的作者在其他書籍裡面看到的例子、在哈佛和耶魯課堂邀請過的學者經驗），現代是資訊爆炸的時代，即便假新聞充斥，不要急著評論，退一步思考才能不被極端觀點牽著鼻子走，因為就算是專家，也會有盲點或是失誤的可能，靠著不全然正確的前提假設推演結論，可能會導致被情緒牽著走，或者被壓力迫使，沒有經過思量，就匆促下決定。專家反而容易被困在既定的框架，對新事物欠缺開放態度。探索各種可能、聆聽各方意見，最終該怎麼做還是得靠自己。

知道「為了什麼最終目標而努力」來最佳化你的策略，才不會造成看似每一步都是當下最好的選擇，而結果卻歪了的扼腕。因為任何決定都是牽一髮而動全身，你忽視的因素有可能讓談判破局。

他支持通才>>>專才，認為整合型人才，並擁有小白心態（新手）才是未來所需要的，這些人因為沒有既往的包袱，反而容易突破盲點。
期許自己時時能從新手的角度看待事情。

三星理由：
• 我本來就常常會懷疑事情是否真如某些激化言論說的那樣，有時間也會多方查證，或者提出我的疑問，所以「不要全然相信專家」這點，對我來說並不是什麼新的概念

• 他認為專業和人文教育必須要並存，因為多方涉略其他鄰近領域能夠幫助我們走出原本的視角（但我覺得「自主思考」和「人文教育」沒有什麼太大關係）從鄰近領域來追尋突破的點，也就是他提到的「焦點轉換」，在《創意天才的蝴蝶思考術 The Net and the Butterfly》也被提過。總之他就是借了很多其他書的觀點來拼湊成他的書。

• 有些例子的成功原因，不見得是根本原因，就如他所說，事情的因果是複雜交縱在一起的，所以不一定「沒有經驗、不畏懼風險、懂得自己思考」就能投資成功，只是失敗的例子被忽視了。

可以做的嘗試：
• 不一定都要閱讀 Economy, Self-help books（実用本）等 Nonfiction，或是歷史發生過的事件紀錄片，有時候 fiction 也能訓練你的腦袋去思考一些你直覺認為不可能發生的事。（他舉的是 Sci-fi 類以及「想像未來」的書籍，但我覺得他就只是不喜歡過去，反而跑去探索未來而已。）
作者每年年初會發表「未來預測報告」在他個人網站，有興趣可以下載看看。他還預測「台灣在未來五年可能受中共威脅，所以富裕層可能會轉移他們的資產到海外」。

→總之我贊同「閱讀小說能幫助思考」，我的書單的確常常充滿台灣排行榜暢銷書（商業理財與語言學習書、自我成長書），有機會可以讀一些小說。

[Samantha · Rating 3 out of 5]

I think that this book was intended to be more of a "business/financial" book. One of those meant for development in the work arena, but I found it to be good for everyday life as well. The majority of the life examples Vikram uses to expand a point were quite interesting to read and there were moments that were rather eye-opening for me in terms of my lack of autonomy; many I will be working to integrate into my everyday life.

The book reads like an series: I imagined Vikram being the host on something similar to Netflix's 'Unexplained' and there was (at least it felt to me) much name dropping and emphasis on accolades that was in direct opposition to what he is advocating against. Wasn't a fan of that, but all-in-all it was thought provoking.

[dj · Rating 2 out of 5]

I like his anecdotes, especially those about It feels like it is written for someone who is getting in touch with the financial industry. There is almost nothing about Artificial Intelligence. The book read really easy which I attribute to the authors writing skills. On the other hand, this book is a perfect example of Buzzword/Click-Baiting. So I feel cheated by the author. The book might be a good entrance into the subject of focus in our current times. It didn't feel like I am the target audience, maybe the author wanted to address early teenagers...

The book has no original Ideas and is mainly reusing examples already mentioned 100 times somewhere else.

[Richard · Rating 4 out of 5]

This book was an interesting read. The thrust of the book is - Never Stop Questioning. Consideration of advice given by experts should always bring context into the equation.

As specialization is becoming common due to the increase in data, it is essential for us to keep referencing and contemplating the big picture. Specialists focus on the small part of the spectrum that is their speciality, and commonly come to conclusions that don’t make sense if the bigger picture is considered.

I enjoyed the short illustrative stories throughout the book. They are humorous, engaging, and help one question better.

[Matt · Rating 2 out of 5]

Didn't finish this one; it wasn't worth it.

In general, I agreed with the premise going into it (be mindful, think critically, challenge assumptions, use technology wisely, etc.). The book doesn't bring much that is new to this conversation about automation and expertise. I think you could boil it down to a 10 minute article; it's rather repetitive across all chapters.

This book tends to cherry pick examples to support particular hypotheses/points rather than acknowledging the holistic improvements technologies/experts/processes bring.

[M G · Rating 4 out of 5]

The 3 page conclusion section contains all you need to know if you’re trying to get some insight and application out of this book. All other 250 pages are anecdotes that repeat the same message - things went poorly when people didn’t think for themselves or vice versa. I personally found the anecdotes entertaining, but there’s no reason this needed to be an entire book. If you’re looking for deep insights or thorough analysis, your time is better spent elsewhere.

[Ren · Rating 3 out of 5]

This book makes you stop and think about what you're doing and why. Good points about questioning, well, everything. Are you deferring to "experts" and not considering what is best for you? Are you acting on the advice of someone who has ulterior motives? I will say it's more long-winded than necessary, but a good reminder to think for ourselves.

Thanks to Harvard Business Review Press and NetGalley for the eARC in exchange for my honest review. I ended up listening to the audiobook version.

[Annarella · Rating 5 out of 5]

It's a well written book that makes you reflect and question yourself.
I loved it and I think it's a useful and interesting read.
Strongly recommended.
Many thanks to the publisher and Netgalley for this ARC, all opinions are mine.

[Tetyana · Rating 3 out of 5]

While the overarching idea is something worth considering, the book read a little too ranty for my taste and trying a little too hard to prove a point. Might've been more concise and digestible as a TED talk.

[Maila Autumn · Rating 5 out of 5]

The book that got me back into reading. I thought this was interesting critique on specialization and the lack of critical analysis that is rampant under capitalism. I wish more people would read this book.

[Justin · Rating 5 out of 5]

Must Read

[Seb · Rating 3 out of 5]

One to re-read or re-listen to...

[E Cheong · Rating 2 out of 5]

2.5
Nothing new, materials gathered from know sources ...

[Filipa · Rating 5 out of 5]

Muito bom! Recomendo!

[Tânia · Rating 4 out of 5]

Dá que pensar...

[Neha Shaah · Rating 3 out of 5]

Great examples of how we get tricked and how our beliefs overpowered our common sense. Last chaper is a must read for any working professional

[Alievano · Rating 5 out of 5]

Me encanto porque toca varios temas y los explica bien con ejemplos. Un punto de vista diferente a lo que solemos leer en negocios.