Predicts that personal computers linked into a global network will soon replace television, and thereby overthrow the tyranny of mass media, renew individual power, and promote democracy worldwide. Urges American business to get on the ball with fiber optics. Reprinted from the 1990 edition published by Whittle Books. No index or bibliography. Annotation copyright Book News, Inc. Portland, Or.
Thesis: when you introduce a superior technology, it engulfs the technologies around it. When you introduce that technology into the market, it engulfs other markets.
Television’s triumphant rise also spelled its doom. Doom might be too strong a word, though. The vacuum tubes within the television were extremely limited and would not be able to compete with microchips, fiber optics, etc.
Television had to depend on the limitations of the air, frequencies, and signals. In other words, digital signals have an advantage over analog systems.
“The fate of technologies is not defined by their abilities, but by their competitors.”
Gilder suggests that the new telecomputer age might reverse the mass-idiocy of the television age. It might point back to individualism. Television is at its heart a totalitarian system. The signals originate from a single point.
My only criticism is that he didn’t anticipate what Google would do. He is absolutely correct that superior technologies always engulf surrounding technologies (and markets). Google simply did that. The problem is that Google is also political and is in a position to limit liberties.
Gilder is an important high tech hypester/pundit who I have seen profiled in The New Yorker and have listened to on the radio. Apparently he was raised by the Rockefeller family - his father was a Rockefeller's roommate in either college or WW2, and when he was killed this Rockefeller fulfilled a pledge to raise and educate the boy. Gilder has worked as a right wing magazine editor and has written a few books: a couple of anti-feminist tracts, a book touting capitalism as being the most godly form of economic activity (one of Ronald Reagan's favorites), and a couple of books on high tech issues. He is an Ivy League, free market Republican and a cultural elitist.
This short book was already way out of date by the time I started reading it. Published by Whittle Communications and full of ads for Federal Express, it must have carried a very low price tag at one time. Gilder predicts that the TV viewer will soon have much more power over what to watch and when, what camera angles to use, etc. A lot of this has already arrived, especially with the advent of internet video streaming. But the large corporations that dominate TV and turn out the lowest common denominator entertainment that Gilder dislikes are showing no sign of making major changes to content. He also discusses a company called QuoTrek which used radio waves to send out stock quotes and other info - a technology that has since been surpassed by other devices like smartphones and tablets.
I liked the book at first, and then it was a few weeks overdue at the library, so I just returned it without finishing it- which I rarely do, but did in this case.
VERY outdated, but interesting in part for showing how visionary the author was, and for his fairly clear reasoning on why he figured things would progress the way he thought.
This was an interesting read about the future of television and computers written in the early 90s. He was quite accurate about many things, and the things he was wrong about are instructive as well.