Decision-Making in the Polycrisis Era

by Daniel Wagner, Ben Cattaneo

The convergence of a plethora of society-level crises has resulted in the birth of the Polycrisis era - a term that was first used about a decade ago to describe the existence of multiple significant risks occurring at the same time. Although societal polarization, poverty, migration, pandemics, and geopolitical upheaval are perennial topics that have been studied intently for centuries, the intersection of politics, economics, finance, technology, the environment, and other factors that today collectively define the global risk landscape have fused together. The Polycrisis era therefore embodies the multitude of interconnected, complex, simultaneous crises facing humanity across multiple dimensions.

The component parts of the Polycrisis era are, in their own way, potentially existential threats to individuals, nations, and the world. Climate change, pandemics, mass migration, and poverty threaten large swathes of the global population. Geopolitical upheaval has put the world on its most serious trajectory toward potentially severe inter-state warfare between the great powers and/or among regional states since the Second World War. And threats posed by Virtual Terrorism and malignant Artificial Intelligence (AI) are now contributing significantly to the multitude of preoccupations borne by policy makers, risk managers, and philosophers alike.

Decision-makers are, as a result, in uncharted territory and have an unprecedented challenge on their hands. Given the threats these risks represent, conventional attitudes, methodologies, and tools used in decision-making are no longer fit-for-purpose. They require an upgrade, which starts with a deeper comprehension of these challenges and how to adapt approaches to decision-making to address them. Decision-making in the Polycrisis era needs to be applied with keen insight, foresight, and well-considered intuition rather than emotion, reflex, or an over-reliance on previous lessons of history.

The Polycrisis era implies that every organization will in some way be affected by all these areas of merged uncertainty. Each of the topics addressed in this book requires that any decision-maker have a solid grasp of their complexities. Since no one can be an expert in each of them, it is important to be able to understand and arbitrate between the complex trade-offs involved in making smart decisions in this era. Downplaying the evidence and science available can result in making poor decisions, thereby creating bad outcomes for individuals, their organizations, and societies more broadly.

At no time in human history has the notion of uncertainty, risk and resilience taken center stage as it has in the Polycrisis era. Survival in the twenty-first century depends on our ability to harness uncertainty, encourage bounded risk taking, and improve organizational and societal resilience. Our individual and collective decision-making capabilities are the chief actors in this drama. It is up to us to decide how well or poorly we step up to the task and take these challenges on meaningfully, so that we do not merely survive, but thrive in this era.

Co-authors Daniel Wagner and Ben Cattaneo - seasoned veterans of the global risk management arena - take the reader on a deep dive into the Polycrisis era that is truly informative, contemplative, and thought provoking, arming the reader with a fresh perspective on making enlightened decisions to successfully navigate the increasingly complicated risk landscape.

572 pages, Paperback

First published January 30, 2024

About the author

Daniel Wagner is the CEO of Country Risk Solutions, Managing Director of Multilateral Accountability Associates, and has more than three decades of experience assessing cross-border risk. He is an authority on political risk insurance and analysis and has worked for some of the world’s most respected and best-known companies, including AIG, GE, the African Development Bank, the Asian Development Bank, and the World Bank Group. In 2023 he was Adaptation Finance Lead and Technical Advisor on Private Capital Mobilization for COP28 in Abu Dhabi. Prior to that he was Senior Investment Officer for Guarantees and Syndications at the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank in Beijing and Abu Dhabi.

Daniel has published 12 books – The New Multilateralism, Tales from Inside, Decision-Making in the Polycrisis Era, The Chinese Epiphany, The Chinese Vortex, The America-China Divide, China Vision, AI Supremacy, Virtual Terror, Global Risk Agility and Decision-Making, Managing Country Risk, and Political Risk Insurance Guide – as well as more than 700 articles on current affairs and risk management. He is a regular contributor to such publications as the South China Morning Post, Sunday Guardian, Diplomatic Courier and Fair Observer, among many others. For a full listing of his publications and media interviews please see www.countryrisksolutions.com.

Daniel holds master’s degrees in international relations from the University of Chicago and in international management from the Thunderbird School of Global Management. He also has a bachelor’s degree in political science from Richmond University in London.