A Billion Butterflies: A Life in Climate and Chaos Theory

by Jagadish Shukla

The amazing true story of the man behind modern weather prediction

Consider a world without weather prediction. How would we know when to evacuate communities ahead of fires or floods, or figure out what to wear tomorrow? Until 40 years ago, we couldn’t forecast weather conditions beyond ten days. Renowned climate scientist Dr. Jagadish Shukla is largely to thank for modern weather forecasting. Born in rural India with no electricity, plumbing, or formal schools, he attended classes that were held in a cow shed. Shukla grew up amid overwhelming monsoons, devastating droughts, and unpredictable crop yields. His drive brought him to the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, despite little experience. He then followed an unlikely path to MIT and Princeton, and the highest echelons of climate science. His work, which has enabled us to predict weather farther into the future than previously thought possible, allows us to feed more people, save lives, and hold on to hope in a warming world.

Paired with his philanthropic endeavors and extreme dedication to the field, Dr. Shukla has been lauded internationally for his achievements, including a shared Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore for his governmental research on climate change. A Billion Butterflies is a wondrous insider’s account of climate science and an unbelievable memoir of his life. Understanding dynamical seasonal prediction will change the way you experience a thunderstorm or interpret a forecast; understanding its origins and the remarkable story of the man who discovered it will change the way you see our world.

Genres: Nonfiction, Science, Nature, Biography, Audiobook, Memoir, History

281 pages, Hardcover

Published April 22, 2025

Reviews

[theliterateleprechaun · Rating 4 out of 5]

3.5 ⭐ rounded up

Upfront and in bold:

🦋𝐃𝐞𝐬𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐛𝐞𝐚𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐟𝐮𝐥 𝐜𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬, 𝐛𝐮𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝟓 𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐬.🦋

The butterflies are a metaphor.

You learn this on page 173 of 253.

🤩 What you will get: 𝑨𝒏 𝒂𝒎𝒂𝒛𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒕𝒓𝒖𝒆 𝒔𝒕𝒐𝒓𝒚 𝒂𝒃𝒐𝒖𝒕 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒎𝒂𝒏 𝒃𝒆𝒉𝒊𝒏𝒅 𝒎𝒐𝒅𝒆𝒓𝒏 𝒘𝒆𝒂𝒕𝒉𝒆𝒓 𝒑𝒓𝒆𝒅𝒊𝒄𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏.

My extreme disappointment was soon overtaken by more than a casual level of interest in this memoir-style book introducing a young Indian boy with big dreams.

“I would not have become a climate scientist had I not been born in the monsoonal country of India.”

Dr. Shukla’s drive to predict monsoons takes him from the rice paddies of rural India to the highest echelons of climate science and from a child with an unrecorded birth date to a world-renowned scientist with a Nobel Peace Prize. I was eagerly along for the ride. I learned about the difference between climate and weather and was intrigued by the author’s drive to understand and predict seasonal weather. This book certainly will (1) change how I see my world and (2) remind me of the power of a dream/goal.

“Meteorologists have far more confidence in climate predictions one hundred years in the future than we do in the prediction of weather ten days from now.”

If this claim piques your curiosity, this book is for you!

I was gifted this copy by St. Martin’s Press and was under no obligation to provide a review.

#abillionbutterflies #jagadishshukla #smpearlyreaders #stmartinspress

[Kara · Rating 5 out of 5]

Wow! This was incredible: the story of a boy from a small village (so small it didn't have roads!) who grew up to be a world-renowned climate scientist, driven by his desire to predict monsoons to make life in his village better.

Dr. Shukla has an inspiring story, and I learned a lot about his life, the history of weather prediction, and what it was like being in the midst of climate change controversy. He owns the mistakes he made and regrets he has, which I appreciated. This book is well-paced too, and I was engaged the whole way through.

This is an enthusiastic five stars from me.

Thank you to NetGalley and Macmillan Audio!

[Hannah Reagan · Rating 3 out of 5]

I went into this completely blind with zero knowledge of the author or weather. The extent of my weather knowledge was barely textbook level and more so just what my phone notifies me of. I learned a lot from this book. Everything was explained well enough that virtually anyone could follow along. At first I was worried this would read more like a textbook and less like a memoir. It never did and the teaching moments flowed well with the story.

[Tara Cignarella · Rating 5 out of 5]

A Million Butterflies (A Life in Climate and Chaos Theory) by Dr. Jagadish Shukla
Audio Version
Overall Grade: A-
Information: A-
Writing/Organization: B+
Narration: B+
Best Aspect: Excellent information on climate that for the most part is easy to understand for a non-scientist.
Worst Aspect: Would have like more personal memoir stories just because they were interest not because they didn’t exist.
Recommend: Yes.

[Ashlyn · Rating 4 out of 5]

I’m probably not the ideal audience for this book since I’m not a huge science person. This had a lot of science in it, but I still found it to get a good read. I liked how this went through the author’s life and everything significant they experienced. There were also things I learned as well. This book was well written and I felt like it was an easy and quick read. If you are someone who is interested in climate or a science non-fiction book, then this one is for you.

I received a physical ACR of this book from the publisher which has no impact on my review.

[Therearenobadbooks · Rating 5 out of 5]

Some books come to us at the right time. I wanted to research weather vs climate but didn't want to read something detailed and textbook-like. This book is a mix of biography and we get so many instances of the author's life mixed with his journey to becoming an expert. The important and well-delivered scientific information punctuates the life of a child born in an Indian village and worked hard to achieve his status in the science community. But we also get the stories behind his losses, grief, and family, and even cultural shock. I love that the author is not afraid to confess how fearful he was during the most important events in life that turned out to become turning points for his career. At the same time, we have a general idea of the changes in time and politics that affected India. His work comes from the will to do better for his people, who mostly depend on agriculture. Or even the change in America. The author is so focused on his work, that constant witch hunt politics phases become no more than disruption of good work. His commitment to living in America led him to the project intended to predict El Niño. In a simulation, they erased the Amazon from the Earth and saw the consequences, the extinction of many species, and repercussions around the world. Desertification is the end of many ancient societies already as History has shown. Climate prediction is extremely relevant. Imperative. Great awareness of a concept that is so simple but we keep forgetting. That the planet works as an organism that is in constant interaction. Even our acts of civilization building cities change the temperature and other factors of the land and not only these create the butterfly effect, rippling into drastic consequences.

Thank you author for dedicating a chapter to point out the valuable work women scientists have contributed, and for creating the college in your mother's village, Dr. Jagadish Shukla giving an opportunity to so many young women. Also, the book is a great way for the author to correct the misinformation that tried to denigrate his name and explain facts.

[Alanna Grace]

A Billion Butterflies
What a fantastic memoir showcasing passion, intelligence, and drive! Humans are truly amazing!

[Donna Huber · Rating 5 out of 5]

This isn't just a book about meteorology and climate. I also learned about Indian culture and a little about politics. I didn't know about most of the climate science breakthroughs that he mentioned, but they are something we use every day as many of them revolved around more accurately predicting weather. An excellent book that really held my attention. Read my full review at Girl Who Reads.

[Lauren Oertel · Rating 5 out of 5]

Thank you to the author, publisher, and NetGalley for an audio ARC of this book!

I appreciated how much I learned from this excellent blend of memoir, history, and science. I now have a better understanding of weather, climate, the forces that are attacking climate scientists, and the bigger picture of what it all means. I loved the idea shared toward the end:

"Meteorology represents our species' longest and most concerted effort to take care of one another."

What a beautiful way of looking at it!

[Nicola “Shortbookthyme” · Rating 4 out of 5]

✅This book is not just about climate and meteorology. There is quite a bit about the Indian culture which I found intriguing.
I enjoyed the historical aspect as well as the scientific information shared by the author.
Perfect reading for those that are into checking the weather forecast throughout the day.

Thank you for the opportunity to read this book for my honest review. All opinions expressed are my own.

[Allison · Rating 5 out of 5]

A Billion Butterflies: A Life in Climate and Chaos Theory by Dr. Jagadish Shukla is a brilliant scientific memoir by one of the greatest pioneers of weather prediction and climate science. Born in rural India, Dr. Shukla grew up at mercy to the weather. An overly dry season or overly wet season had profound impacts on his family and his village. He made it his life's mission to learn how to predict weather by the season, not just from day to day. Working in prestigious institutions in the US and India, Dr. Shukla developed models that helped better understand phenomenon like El Nino. He demonstrated how small actions could have large impacts globally. In addition to working in the field of weather prediction, he also contributed to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a global organization of scientists who and policy makers who have demonstrated the catastrophic impact of burning fossil fuels and associated greenhouse gases on climate change.

I absolutely loved this book. For me, the book had the perfect balance of scientific detail and personal touches. I learned so much reading this book and highly recommend it.

Thank you to NetGalley and St. Martin's Press for an advanced reader copy in exchange for an honest review.

[Twirlsquirrel · Rating 3 out of 5]

This book is a few different things: a charming memoir, a decent primer on the history and science of meteorology and climatology, and a mixed call for science-informed political action. I'll discuss them in order.

Memoir

Really well done. Shukla has some great tales, a strong narrative voice, and a warm stylistic tone. Better, he consistently goes out of his way to demonstrate learning from past mistakes, which helps normalize personal change and growth as a regular and desirable part of life. This ranges from feminist updates to science curricula that previously excluded foundational scientists like Eunice Foote, to changing his mind away from climate change skepticism after studying the relevant science. He also shares many stories of people supporting each other in all sorts of ways, including a few that brought me to tears. Four stars for this aspect of the book.

History and science

Pretty good. Shukla is always earnest and usually pretty clear in his explanations, such that I rarely found myself confused or wandering. He really shines, though, when he's talking about the personal imperatives that drive strong dedications to good science: A desire to protect his community drove him to understand weather well enough to mitigate against droughts via seasonal prediction of monsoons. This led much later to understanding climate well enough to help protect our whole species and surrounding biosphere from catastrophe. He clearly cares about what he's doing and encourages his readers to care about their own goals. Three stars overall for this part; it would have been nice to learn more about other areas of climate science, but since this is primarily a memoir the biased lens is completely understandable.

Call to political action

Could use a lot of work here. Shukla readily acknowledges that "corporate greed" is shredding the climate to pieces, but never reaches for any deeper diagnosis than that, not even mentioning the word "capitalism". This is kind of like linking your vomit-covered shoes to your nauseated stomach, but then failing to link either one to the flu virus you contracted yesterday. Similarly, Shukla's remedies are limited to the standard liberal shrines of more regulation, a vaguely intensified commitment to liberal education, voting harder, and writing letters.

Shukla spends a long time on letters, including an extremely convoluted and meandering story about that one time he wrote Obama to request the president prosecute major climate-breaking corporations under RICO laws previously used against cigarette companies. In response Shukla receives a form letter generated by a presidential aide, which completely avoids any mention or acknowledgement of Shukla's original request. Shukla then proceeds to quote to us this entire letter word for word without any additional context or commentary on the matter, instead moving immediately onto the next topic once the letter is finished.

This is probably the most bizarre part of the book. I still don't know what to make of it, but it led to a fun game in which I try to guess Shukla's intent in quoting the entire letter sans commentary. My favorite option is that this is intended as a maximally diplomatic critique of a patronizing neoliberal letter so obviously bereft of substance the audience is meant to bask in silent judgment of the emperor's epistolary birthday suit. But it's also plausible this is some kind of weird trophy texted into the world as a written memorial to prove Shukla was there at the peak of liberal form politics, much like a climber who erects a cairn at the summit, or a dog who pees on a log. Since I cannot know the answer, I must assume I lose the game, and award this section two stars. Writing letters will not save us from anthropogenic climate catastrophe; that will require us to eliminate entirely the systematized psychopathy that is capitalism, which will toss every living being into a furnace before it will let itself stop growing.

Conclusion

Overall I appreciated this book on multiple levels and would happily recommend it to anyone interested in learning about meteorology or climatology for the first time. As a companion book to this one I'd recommend reading What's left by Malcolm Harris.

[NurseKelsey · Rating 4 out of 5]

⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

A fascinating memoir by the “father of modern weather forecasting.” It starts back at his upbringing in rural India where their livelihood & safety were largely impacted by something they didn’t understand nor know how to predict: monsoons.

From there his perseverance & relentless curiosity bring him to America, up through our best universities & government agencies to lead the way on not only short term but long term weather forecasting. The book is a perfect mix of science/explanation & history/memoir. His insights into the connections they made, the political impacts of weather & data collection & how far the world has come in just his 50 year career were all so interesting. One of my favorite facts was that our computers now are so powerful & run so many computations so quickly that we may not have the electricity to run them, meaning a power shortage will be our new limitation to knowledge. This was a quick but fact heavy & unique book, well worth your time if you’re curious about the natural world around us - especially climate change, what we could still do to prevent worse impacts & how dire the situation truly is.

[Joan · Rating 4 out of 5]

This is a very interesting book, a combination memoir and science discovery. I enjoyed the informative first part of the book on Shukla growing up in India. Then I was fascinated by all the information I learned about weather forecasting and how it was developed. Then there was the chaos theory and the butterfly effect. Forecasting came to include information from ocean temperatures and eventually satellite data. Shukla's interest was primarily in monsoon prediction and seasonal forecasts. When the effect on climate of carbon in the atmosphere was proven, he also included it in his studies. It was heartbreaking to read how he was treated by climate deniers and those funded by the fossil fuel industry.

I like Shukla's writing style. The climate and weather information in the book is very readable. I will think of Shukla and the work he and his co-scientists did when I look at that convenient forecast on my weather app.

I received a complimentary egalley of this book from the publisher. My comments are an independent and honest review.

[Laura · Rating 5 out of 5]

I suspect I am not alone in admitting I had not heard of Dr. Jagadish Shukla or of his impressive volume of work as a scientist, researcher and professor. Despite that, I picked up this book on a whim and was engaged from the first word. Weather prediction, the butterfly effect, chaos theory and climate change all feature in the work of Dr. Shukla and the world is better for it. Fascinating, educational and eye-opening, this book will not disappoint!

[Chelsea · Rating 5 out of 5]

Thank you Netgalley for the advance reader copy of A Billion Butterflies by Dr. Jagadish Shukla in exchange for an honest review. This book is so informative and easy to read. I really enjoyed reading about how weather predictions are made and the people involved in creating the systems we use. I guess I never thought much about the weather, just suffered through the heat in the summer and snow in the winter. There is so much that goes into figuring out the forecast as well as being able to predict storms and droughts. I highly recommend this book to everyone.

[Meghan · Rating 3 out of 5]

Thank you Netgalley and St Martin's Press for this arc in exchange for my honest review

3.5
I went into this book completely blind and was pleasantly surprised. I was able to follow along and understand despite me knowing nothing about weather, Very interesting read! I would of like a little more personal stories to go along with the scientific facts.

[Sarah · Rating 4 out of 5]

Appreciated the balance between memoir of one of the scientists behind modern climate modeling and the actual evolution of climate modeling behind the scenes. Well constructed, and I appreciated the blend of personal with science. If you are curious about the lives and minds behind the science architecture of our world, you’ll appreciate this too.

This was an engaging audiobook read.

[Nimue Shive · Rating 4 out of 5]

Very interesting and learned a lot about weather and weather prediction. Not enough butterfly content though the cover had me on a different track

[Tom Schulte · Rating 4 out of 5]

Dr. Jagadish Shukla is an Indian meteorologist and Distinguished University Professor at George Mason University. Born in 1944 in the village of Middha in Uttar Pradesh, India, he went from a village with no electricity, roads, or any primary school building to become a Distinguished University Professor at George Mason University, USA, where he founded the Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences and Climate Dynamics PhD Program.

Shukla had key early interactions with Jule Charney, the American meteorologist who played an important role in developing numerical weather prediction and increasing understanding of the general circulation of the atmosphere by devising a series of increasingly sophisticated mathematical models of the atmosphere. His work was the driving force behind many national and international weather initiatives and programs.

Charney walked up to my table. And while several people lined up to speak with the famous meteorologist, he spent the next several minutes with me, explaining some of the new work he had done on tropical atmospheres. I was so surprised, I could hardly concentrate on his words. All I could think was that the work I had done at the IITM—where my colleagues were already predicting I would take over as director general one day—paled in comparison to the brilliant science happening in other parts of the world. It wasn’t just Charney; it was every talk I had heard that day. Suddenly, the limits of my own trajectory in India seemed perfectly visible. Charney asked me to follow him to his hotel room so that he could give me a preprint of his latest paper. The people waiting to speak to him followed us too, and when we got to Charney’s suite, we found it covered in papers and books. Later I would learn that Charney was in the midst of planning the Global Weather Experiment; that’s why he was buried in paperwork and in especially high demand among his fellow scientists that day. All those people trailing us down the corridors of the hotel were the luminaries of the weather world. By the time we said goodbye, I felt something new taking root inside me—that confidence, that certainty I had been lacking. I had stumbled into the conference by accident, but I left with a new sense of purpose.

From his beginnings where there was a real need for seasonal monsoon prediction, he developed professionally during the 1970s, when the

...Things were worse in Mirdha, where even my family was short of food, something that had rarely happened during my childhood. As I looked around our struggling village, my thoughts were far away, in the MIT classrooms I had left behind. Surely a phenomenon this extreme and widespread had been heralded somehow. Nature could not be so cruel, I thought, as not to offer us a way to anticipate its life-sustaining variations.

Shukla recognized the importance of land surface processes in climate variability and predictability and established the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA). In the early 1980s to worked to carry out retrospective analysis of atmospheric observations to validate climate models.

the US Weather Bureau, where [Syukuro "Suki" Manabe] had begun work in 1958. In 1966, Suki used a model to run a deceptively simple calculation designed to investigate the relationship between greenhouse gases and the temperature of the Earth’s atmosphere. He found that in his model , increasing the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere from three parts per ten thousand to six parts per ten thousand increased the surface temperature of the Earth by a staggering 4 degrees Fahrenheit (Suki was the first researcher to model anthropogenic global warming, and it earned the Japanese scientist a Nobel Prize in Physics many decades later).

...

the experiment landed in the climate community like a grenade. For centuries, the common wisdom was that water that evaporated from the ocean was the source of rainfall over land. But what we had shown was that, since land-surface conditions and evaporation from land accounted for a stunning 65 percent of annual average rainfall, land was an essential component of the global hydrological cycle. As it turned out, the land didn’t passively receive the weather; it actively created it. It was an almost heretical idea.

Shukla succeeded in realizing his vision for crucial dynamical seasonal prediction:

...a new chapter in dynamical seasonal prediction had been written. It was also a momentous occasion in my own career. Soon after the successful prediction of the 1997/ 1998 El Niño, Ants Leetmaa, head of the climate prediction group at NOAA, started a lecture in Miami with this joke: “I have heard a rumor that Shukla would retire only after the dynamical seasonal prediction problem is solved. Perhaps it is time for Shukla to think about retiring?”

...

were well aware from past observations that intense El Niños produced severe monsoon droughts over India, like the 1972 drought I had experienced while visiting my village during graduate school. When the Indian authorities asked me confidentially for my opinion about the 1997 monsoon season for India, I confidently supported the conventional wisdom—confirmed by the models—that the 1997 monsoon season would be a drought year for India. Well, nature has its own way of keeping scientists in their place—I was wrong; we all were, and 1997 was a normal monsoon rainfall season for India. Some suggested Lorenz’s butterflies were at work again, fiddling with our hard-won model. Some research indicated that the influence of El Niño was neutralized by the Indian Ocean temperatures, which were not correctly predicted in 1997.

...

We do not see thunderstorms all the time even though moist air is always present because, in addition to the heating of the ground, we need vertical profiles of temperature and moisture in the atmosphere so that the moist air has the buoyancy to keep going up and up; these are not always present. The physical and dynamical processes that cause the lifting of the surface air to produce storms in the tropical regions are different than the processes that produce storms in the extratropical regions. That is why our ability to predict weather differs between tropical and extratropical regions.

Eunice Newton Foote was an American scientist, inventor, and women's rights campaigner. She was the first scientist to identify the insulating effect of certain gases, and that therefore rising carbon dioxide levels could increase atmospheric temperature and affect climate, a phenomenon now referred to as the greenhouse effect. Shukla acknowledges how she has been overlooked for recognition due as he charts his own journey from climate change skeptic to advocate for a vigorous response to avoid calamity.

For reasons that are unclear but probably easy to guess, Eunice Newton Foote, an American scientist and women’s rights advocate, did not give this presentation, despite having thought up the experiment, performed it, and written the paper. Perhaps that’s why Foote’s name and this experiment—conducted in her Saratoga Springs home and motivated by her own curiosity and desire to be useful to science—has largely been lost to history. Despite the fact that her pioneering work took place several years before that of the man who has long been credited with discovering the greenhouse effect (Irish physicist John Tyndall), several decades before Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius made his observations on carbon dioxide, and almost a century before Guy Callendar connected the increase of atmospheric CO2 with global warming, most people—including me—hadn’t heard her name. Shamefully, this is not an uncommon phenomenon in science. (Not to mention society at large. In my own house, my parents gave a much higher priority to my brother and me than to our two younger sisters, who were married off as young teenagers.) Who knows how many other women—scientists, amateur scientists, students, lab assistants, or the overlooked wives of famous scholars—contributed to the field of climate science without recognition.

...

My conversion from ambivalence to acceptance of global warming happened quickly. In an air-conditioned auditorium, surrounded by almost five hundred scientists representing nearly three-quarters of the countries on earth, I sat in a dumbfounded silence as expert after expert after expert after expert took the podium and delivered the sobering news from their corners

...

in 2006, as my IPCC duties were ongoing, COLA colleagues Tim DelSole, Mike Fennessy, Jim Kinter, Dan Paolino, and I designed a study that would satisfy my desire to rank those twenty-three models and find out if there was a relationship between how good each model was and how much global warming it predicted. In essence, we would examine the performance of each model in simulating the past one hundred years for which we have observations and see how accurately it recreated the past conditions. Then we would see how much future warming that model predicted. We had absolutely no basis to know what the result of this study would be. When we analyzed the data, we saw that the quote-unquote best models consistently predicted greater degrees of warming, to the tune of 4 to 5 degrees Celsius, a catastrophic rise in temperature. It was a very simple calculation with a very frightening result, and one we thought the world would like to know about. As it turns out, we were wrong on that last point. When we sent our paper— which warned that “projected global warming due to increasing CO2 is likely to be closer to the highest projected estimates among the current generation of climate models”— to Science, one of the reviewers argued against including it in the journal, saying it would cause panic. This reviewer, a scientist of great reputation, called me a few days after its rejection to tell me it wasn’t just society he was worried about but my own well-being. Climate deniers would make my life miserable for authoring such a paper, he warned. The paper was readily published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters in 2006. Since our IPCC team had the responsibility to assess all published papers, I was sure we would highlight this rather significant result in our report. Instead, a fellow lead author, a scientist from the US Department of Energy, objected. He argued that we might be accused of privileging IPCC members. Suddenly, it felt like I had switched places with the scientists I had once thought too alarmist. I felt like I couldn’t get anyone to listen to me. (Looking back, the conclusions of the papers have stood the test of time.)

Per the IPCC report, “unmitigated climate change would, in the long term, be likely to exceed the capacity of natural, managed and human systems to adapt”. This was a wakeup call to many and Senator Sheldon Whitehouse proposed a RICO (Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act) investigation. Shukla added his voice in this direction and rightwing pundits and fossil fuel-funded congressmen came down hard on him for his efforts. Key in this was a letter signed by 20 peers. This resulted in attacks on Shukla’s handling of federal funds.

We appreciate that you are making aggressive and imaginative use of the limited tools available to you in the face of a recalcitrant Congress. One additional tool—recently proposed by Senator Sheldon Whitehouse—is a RICO (Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act) investigation of corporations and other organizations that have knowingly deceived the American people about the risks of climate change, as a means to forestall America’s response to climate change. The actions of these organizations have been extensively documented in peer-reviewed academic research (Brulle, 2013) and in recent books including: Doubt is their Product (Michaels, 2008), Climate Cover-Up (Hoggan & Littlemore, 2009), Merchants of Doubt (Oreskes & Conway, 2010), The Climate War (Pooley, 2010), and in The Climate Deception Dossiers (Union of Concerned Scientists, 2015). We strongly endorse Senator Whitehouse’s call for a RICO investigation.

Shukla sees a path forward and hope for us based on how we previously succeeded in handling the issue of ozone-depleting CFCs.

I believe that to manage and mitigate climate change we need three things, and the good news is that we already have the first two well in hand. First, we need to understand the science. Check. Second, we need the technology that allows us to stop pumping the air full of carbon dioxide. Check. Third, we need the will to listen to the science and embrace the technology. It is only on this last point that we are stuck, thanks to the corporate greed that has parasitized our political system. Just forty years ago, society found itself in a very similar situation. Chlorofluorocarbons, a harmful greenhouse gas used in foams, aerosols, and air conditioners, had torn a hole in the ozone layer, the planet’s natural protection against the sun’s damaging radiation. Fixing it required listening to the scientists issuing dire warnings, developing new technologies, and calling for action. In 1987, just two years after the hole was detected, forty-six countries entered into the Montreal Protocol, committing to phasing out harmful chlorofluorocarbons. In 2008, it was the first and only UN environmental agreement to be ratified by every country in the world. Today, virtually all ozone-depleting substances have been phased out of production...

[SeaYon · Rating 4 out of 5]

You cannot fall if you do not climb, but there is no joy in living your whole life on the ground. This line, plucked from the language of mountaineers, could just as easily describe the arc of Dr. Jagadish Shukla’s life, a man who climbed, again and again, until he touched the clouds of dynamical seasonal prediction.

As a young boy in a rural Indian village, Dr. Shukla watched the monsoon rains, not just as seasonal winds that brought both blessing and burden, but as a vast, unexplored mystery of climate, a window into a world waiting to be understood.

From attending classes under a banyan tree/cow shed, to leading breakthroughs in climate science at top institutes, he later rose to redefine how the world predicts those very rains. His journey reminds us that while the ground may be safe, true fulfillment lies in the pursuit of our highest aspirations, despite the risks involved.

This book spans the history of modern climate science, the geography of meteorology, the economics of forecasting, the ethics of environmental justice, and the power of education and technology in transforming societies.

His narrative invites policymakers and scientists alike to distinguish between weather (chaotic and short-term) and climate (systemic and long-term), making space for governance, adaptation and mitigation for a better future. It teaches us to find patterns, to ask questions, and most of all to climb.

If you’re interested in the human side of climate science, the mechanics of weather and climate prediction, or stories of resilience and discovery, this book is a rewarding read. It emphasises on the fact that while no one can stop the storm, it is possible to hear its footsteps, read its signals, and prepare the vulnerable. And in that preparedness, there is dignity.

In-depth review:-

1. History and Social Context: No less powerful than its climate science is the book's implicit critique of inequality - talent is universal, opportunity is not. Dr. Shukla's childhood in the 1950s (post-independence) mirrors the lives of many Indians studying under a tree shed, lacking books, and facing social rigidity. His personal journey highlights both the potential of India's rural youth and the disparities in access to quality education. But, on the other hand, it also focuses on the institutions like the Indian Institute of Technology (ITs) and India Meteorological Department (IMD), the temples of modern India that gave Dr. Shukla a chance to rise. A Billion Butterflies also sheds light on human capital - how the right support, mentors, and institutions can transform a village child into a world renowned climate scientist. Dr. Shukla's story exposes the injustice of wasted potential in rural and marginalised areas. He succeeded not because he was special, but because a few key systems didn't fail him including his curiosity, resilience, and a belief in science as service. In this way, this book is also a manifesto for the idea that knowledge must be decentralised and inclusive. If every curious child can have access to some basic facilities, maybe the next generation of intellectuals would come from the same fields that feed the nation. This also proves the age old saying that the destiny of a nation is indeed shaped in its classroom, and Dr. Shukla's story is a blueprint for how to build curiosity-driven learning, not just degree factories.

2. A Life Between Chaos and Order: Dr. Shukla's fascination with monsoon began in his village, the Indo Gangetic plains. For rural India, the monsoon is not just the seasonal reversal of winds, it's a determinant of life itself. From a very young age, Dr. Shukla noticed how unpredictable the rains were and wondered. "Can we predict these rains?" In this question lies the entire geography of climate science. His later research, Billion Butterfly Experiment showed that while day-to-day weather is chaotic, seasonal patterns, especially Indian monsoon can be predicted if we understand the large scale parameters like the soil moisture, sea surface temperatures, and land-ocean-atmosphere interactions. In simple terms, Dr. Shukla taught the world that monsoon may dance, but it does not dance randomly. Further, he helped in establishing models that combined land, ocean, and atmospheric data, what we today call coupled climate models. These models are now the foundation of climate change projections, including those used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In this way, this book becomes a history of technological evolution in climate science. Also, what I liked the most was that scientific memoirs often falter in one of two directions, either they drown in technicality or float away in nostalgia. But this book strikes the balance, charting the author's evolution as a boy from a rural village to one of the architects of dynamical seasonal forecasting, It's rich with context on climate dynamics and personal reflections, especially the emotional challenges of a life devoted to science. This honesty is where the book becomes literature. The climate, after all, is not just a system of pressure and temperature, it's also a mirror to human emotion i.e., turbulent, unpredictable, and always influenced by what came before.

3. Between Prediction and Preparation: In the age of climate catastrophe, this book is timely not only for what it explains but for what it urges. Dr Shukla's work helped extend the range of weather forecasts beyond short term, into weeks and even months. This leap is not just a scientific advancement because prediction buys time and time saves lives. And yet, the book also acknowledges the limits of prediction. Models can guide us, but they cannot move us. The human systems that interpret these models - policy makers, relief workers, farmers, must themselves be adaptive. This book thus becomes a call for both technological progress and social empathy. Dr. Shukla's narrative affirms that scientific temperament is not the monopoly of metropolitan elites, therefore making this memoir a text on decolonizing knowledge systems. In a broader sense, the book encourages us to invest in education, public science literacy and equity in research ecosystems. At a time when humanity teeters between ecological collapse and technological optimism, Dr. Shukla's life reminds us that change does not require miracles, just brave flaps of wings. His life is living proof that science is not born in laboratories alone, it can emerge from the fields, the monsoon winds, and the dreams of a curious child.

4. Economy and Development: There is an often ignored economic side to climate prediction. Forecasting, in economic term, acts as public infrastructure. Accurate seasonal forecasts an help farmers decide what and when to plant, allow governments to plan food stockpiles, and enable better insurance and disaster responses. In countries like India with long coastlines and where over 50% of agriculture is rain-fed, long-range forecasts can save lives, raise rural incomes, reduce losses, and increase climate resilience. By reducing the economic volatility caused by climate shocks, Dr. Shukla's work, though scientific, contributes directly to macroeconomic stability, and has direct economic value for development, especially in low-income and developing countries. This book reminds us that data is infrastructure, just like roads and power lines. Without it, development crumbles. In essence, data can be a factor of production when equitably distributed, as having data is not as important as what you choose to do with it. And yet, the path from prediction to protection is not always linear. Forecasts, however accurate, often struggle to reach the very people who need them the most - farmers, fisher folks, and frontline communities. This disconnect is not just technological but institutional. Last-mile delivery, limited regional capacity, and the inertia of outdated bureaucratic systems often dilute the value of scientific breakthroughs. As a result, while models may predict drought or excess rainfall weeks in advance, the information often remains trapped in academic or government silos. Thus, the author prompts us to reflect on this invisible infrastructure that science is not self-executing, it requires political will, responsive governance, and public trust to transform forecasts into futures.

5. Emotional and Ethical Topography: Beyond the equations and simulations, science is also an emotional labour. Dr. Shukla details the psychological costs of devoting one's life to science, emphasising that human elements are not distractions, they are intrinsic to the process of knowledge creation. In many parts of the world, including India, millions of people depend on the rains. If it fails, livelihoods collapse. Accurate prediction of weather systems can save lives and protect the vulnerable. Thus, A Billion Butterflies addresses some important questions, Who benefits from predictability, and who pays the price of ignorance? How can we ensure that farmers and fisher folks also benefit from scientific progress? Can we use prediction not just for profit, but for preparation and protection? The majority of people most affected by extreme weather events are the least responsible for climate change. In a world facing rising climate extremes due to anthropogenic warming, this issue becomes even more important as prediction is no longer a scientific luxury, it's a survival tool. Dr. Shukla's narratives reflect a strong ethical vision that science must serve the people, especially those most at risk. His advocacy for science diplomacy, open-source modelling, and policy relevant forecasting reflects a Gandhian ethic of "Antyodaya" - upliftment of the poorest and most deprived.

6. Science of Hope in the Era of Climate Uncertainty: A Billion Butterflies is not just about climate science. It is about how change happens through individual courage, clarity, and a shared sense of social responsibility. It shows that how these elements can converge to build a more predictable, more just, and more prepared world. Dr. Shukla's memoir highlights that scientific genius is not rare, what's rare is opportunity. His life story is a call to remove structural bottlenecks - not just to build supercomputers, but also classrooms with roofs. Therefore, science must not sit in laboratories; it must walk in fields. In the era of escalating climate anxiety, this book offers hope through climate action. Even in a chaotic world, we can find patterns, build systems and protect lives. Dr. Shukla's story becomes a manifesto for integrated climate literacy, inclusive forecasting, and human centered science ecosystems.

P.S. Technology alone is not enough, what makes our heart race is technology combined with humanities.

[Lindsey · Rating 5 out of 5]

This is a timely read (listen) and quite intriguing.
I loved the audio narrator and the author's way of making nature and non-fiction feel immersive and interesting.
The way the author blends personal anecdotes/memoir with science is reminiscent of Robin Wall Kimmerer's non-fiction, which the world absolutely needs more of.

Thanks to NetGalley and Macmillan Audio for the Advanced Copy.

[Dona's Books · Rating 3 out of 5]

Finished Reading

Pre-Read notes

I  misjudged this cover and title! I was even surprised to discover this book was nonfiction. But climate change is a subject of interest for me. So far so good!

Final Review:

Review summary and recommendations

Honestly, I hardly noticed when this book ended. It's because the text covers several  different subjects and I didn't get a chance to really connect to any one of them. A big reason is because the text struggles to relate the subtopics to each other. Even transitions from one subject to another feel rocky.

A Billion Butterflies is about 4 things, really– climate science, butterflies, the author's personal and professional history, and the ins and outs of India's applied science industry. If any of these subjects interest you (I came for the science 🧪 and butterflies 🦋), you'll probably find something of interest here. But maybe not *much* of interest if you, like me, find the organization to distract from the point.

Reading Notes

Two things I loved:

1. Another word for expected weather is mean climate. The standard method to calculate mean climate at any point on Earth for any hour of the day is to take an average of all the weather data at that point for that hour for the previous thirty years. That is why you often read that climate is the average of weather. p88 This is the most accessible description of the concept of climate that I've ever encountered.

2. This book is definitely most interesting to me when Shukla examines the intersection of climate science and data science. He said that such a global gridded data set did not exist. What he meant was that the raw observations, taken from ships and weather stations scattered about randomly, had not been arranged into tidy rows of latitudes and longitudes, and that was the gridded data that computer models needed. p114

Three quibbles:

1. While there is a great deal of information here about climate, it's not always clear to me how the material supports or contributes to the book's overarching idea, or even what that idea is. History of climate science? Memoir of a climate scientist? Analysis of contemporary climate policy? Check to all these.

2. Because it's so formal and not organized well, it's a bit of a slog.

Notes

1. Many years later, Manabe received some blowback for not making a bigger deal about those results, but my friend insisted that he was a scientist, not an activist. Besides, Manabe’s model might have depicted a frightening future, but it didn’t offer insight on whether humans might be able to adapt or what kinds of policies should be enacted to reduce emissions. The other thing it didn’t provide was unequivocal confidence. p179 This raising an excellent question. *Do* scientist have a professional obligation to get public attention for significant findings? I don't think it's in any way enforceable, but I do think they have a professional ethical obligation to share findings that affect the health and safety of this whole world. Do you? Would love to hear your thoughts in the comments!

Rating: ☔🌤️🌪️.5 /5 climate events
Recommend? yes
Finished: Apr 24 '25
Format: accessible digital arc, NetGalley
Read this book if you like:
📰 nonfiction
🧪 popular science books
📈 reading about data
☃️ climate science
🗣️ memoir

Thank you to the author Dr. Jagadish Shukla, publishers St. Martin's Press, and NetGalley for an accessible digital arc of A BILLION BUTTERFLIES. All views are mine.
--------------

[Susan · Rating 5 out of 5]

A Billion Butterflies A Life In Climate and Chaos Theory
Author Dr. Jagadish Shukla
What an amazing book, combining the memoir of a visionary scientist with the emergence of the science of climatology. From a very humble beginning in a rural village in India, Dr. Shukla takes us on the remarkable journey of his life. Interwoven with his life is the growth of scientific knowledge to enable long range forecasts as well as the discovery of remarkable interactions affecting our weather. This book is written so the non-scientist can enjoy the discoveries in climate science.

Dr. Shukla, as a young boy, recognized the impact that monsoons had on his village and the survival of his community. He wanted to find a way to help. His family encouraged him to study. Through his father’s efforts, Shukla was able to attend high school and on to college. His zeal to succeed never overshadowed his desire to help his community. He began working in the Indian Government meteorological bureau, which provides some funny side notes in his memoir. Following opportunities and always keeping current with weather research he was able to grow in his scientific education. His attendance at a global scientific conference led him to a fellowship in the US. Shukla was in on the ground floor of climate research. His description of the early days of computer use made in laugh. His work in collaboration with a team of worldwide climatologists yielded a Nobel Prize.

The work of climate scientists has given people around the globe access to far better short and long range weather predictions which allow people to plan and adjust to potential disasters, whether flood, drought, or blizzard. Dr, Shukla reached his youthful goal.

When Dr. Shukla retired he returned to India to found a college with the goal of giving more rural young people the opportunities he received. His determination to help his community continues.

Dr. Shukla’s life, the individual story alone, is worthy of a book. The wealth of background and information about the blossoming of climatology, is equally remarkable. I recommend this book as a memoir and as an inside look at the way science works.

[Simran]

Thank you @panmacmillanindia for sending me A Billion Butterflies by Dr. Jagadish Shukla.

I saw this book in The Hindu and decided to get it. I thought I would find a lot of complex science, but I got something more.

The author starts with his life in a small, simple village. Every day was about struggle especially for school and food. Nothing came easy. His family always tried to choose kindness and learning, even with little money. Over time, the author studies hard, goes to big cities and ends up working as a scientist who helps the world understand and predict monsoon rains. He wants his work to help ordinary people, like farmers where he grew up.

He goes through tough times: losing his father young, feeling alone and unsure, missing home and learning to survive in new places.
At every step, the author just keeps going. He never forgets his village or why he wanted to do science in the first place. Even with big experts around him, he stays grounded and he wants his work to help families like his own.

One main idea in the book is how even tiny things weather or one person’s action can change a whole future. The author calls back to “butterflies,” not to sound poetic but because he actually works with the idea in science. Still, it made me think that everything even the smallest thing adds up. 🦋

The author writes in a straightforward way. You don’t have to know science to get what he is saying. He explains real problems using his own life and the lives of people around him.
You really feel what it’s like to wait for rain in a village or to work so hard to help your family and community. It made me see how much a simple act or a bit of hope can change a life. 🌧️

By the end, I was grateful for people who support others whether it’s parents or teachers or anyone who helps even in small ways..

The Story Shows That It Doesn’t Matter Where You Start. If You Keep Trying And If You Care About Others You Can Make Change..

If you ever feel like your daily effort or your kindness does not count this book is a reminder that it does. Even a small step forward from a small place can go a long way..☘️

[Heather · Rating 5 out of 5]

A Billion Butterflies is a beautifully written and inspiring memoir that blends personal storytelling with a deep dive into the intricate world of climate science and chaos theory. I loved the serendipitous nature of the author's journey—how he ended up studying weather even though it wasn't what he initially set out to do. His deep connection to India, particularly its weather and monsoon seasons, added a wonderful cultural tie-in and tribute to his heritage that made the story even richer.

The book is a smart and accessible exploration of climate prediction, mathematics, coding, and the staggering complexity behind billions of climate equations. I learned so much about weather patterns, climate modeling, and the sheer dedication it takes to pursue this kind of scientific work. It's also a moving tribute to nature, the seasons, and the work ethic required to uncover their secrets.

Beyond the science, the author openly shares some of the personal struggles and hardships he faced along the way, giving the memoir a real emotional weight. He also writes candidly about the challenge of standing up to giants in his field, which added an inspiring layer of resilience to his story. What really stood out to me was how honest, emotional, and ultimately hopeful the book felt—it wasn't all doom and gloom, even when tackling such a serious topic as climate change.

The author does an incredible job weaving together stories of academics, culture, family, science, and politics into one cohesive and powerful narrative.

If you enjoy memoirs that expand your understanding of the world while telling a deeply personal and human story, A Billion Butterflies is worth the read.

ARC was provided by the publisher via NetGalley in exchange for an honest review.

[Missy · Rating 4 out of 5]

⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ 4/5 Stars (Excellent)
Setting: India and the United States of America
Genre: Memoir

A Billion Butterflies is a fascinating memoir that blends personal perseverance, scientific discovery, and the complexities of cultural navigation into one compelling narrative. Dr. Jagadish Shukla’s story is nothing short of extraordinary—rising from a childhood in rural India, where his early education took place in a cow shed, to becoming a globally recognized climate scientist whose work revolutionized weather prediction.

What makes this book stand out is its balance between personal anecdotes and scientific achievements. Shukla’s journey is not just about intellect but about resilience, adaptability, and an unwavering passion for understanding the world’s most unpredictable forces. His contributions to modern forecasting have had profound impacts on agriculture, disaster preparedness, and climate change awareness, making this book as relevant as it is inspiring.

While the memoir is deeply engaging, some sections—especially those diving into the technical aspects of meteorology—may feel dense for readers unfamiliar with climate science. Additionally, while I thoroughly enjoyed Shukla’s personal story and respect his contributions to the field, I do not agree with all of his scientific conclusions. That said, his work undeniably shaped modern weather prediction, and his story is one of determination and impact.

A Billion Butterflies is a powerful read for anyone interested in the intersection of science, perseverance, and global influence. Whether or not you align with all of Shukla’s scientific perspectives, his journey is a testament to how one person’s determination can truly change the world.
#netgalley #abillionbutterflies #booked_this_weekend

[Silent Disco · Rating 5 out of 5]

interesting read!

more or less a look at climate/weather prediction over the past 50 years up to relatively now’ish? (2025)

was hoping there was going to be a little more expanding on chaos theory.
somewhat similar to tim palmer's book.
the "why" and the "how" mathematically explained might have made for a little too dry of a reading i venture.

something weird and i have no idea where it originated or why it was in my head before i started reading this book but i thought a billion "actual" real life, physical butterflies were used or were gonna be used as a science experiment.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯

ignorant me was a tad sad to to find out no billion real life butterflies (unless i missed it! big miss if i did!) were used, just modeled 🙁

also, less specifics then i anticipated on the science used but i continue to quasi-digress…

the above might seem negative but those or just my own subjective nit-picks!

i like when an author of non-fiction books/novels provides background into their life and provide insight into the "why" and/or the "how" they got into their respective fields.
Dr. Shukla definitely does so here much to my enjoyment!

corporate greed is another whole topic worth discussing and the closing chapters here might be just as important as the development of the science used in weather/climate prediction/forecasting. this might already be known to most readers of this book but if not!
great reading material with excellent examples if you follow the rabbit hole further down either just by "googling" or by simply using the notes section at the back of the book as a springboard or starting point!
greatly appreciated!

[Nikhil Kamath · Rating 5 out of 5]

In "A Billion Butterflies: A Life in Climate and Chaos Theory", Dr. Jagadish Shukla brings a compelling memoir that binds together his personal journey and the evolution of climate science. His is a journey of determination and the spirit of not giving up when the going gets tough.

The book simplifies the complex scientific concepts behind meteorology and weather prediction and Dr. Shukla's pathbreaking work in dynamical seasonal forecasting. The style in which everything is explained in the book is quite vivid and detailed, yet even with the use of jargon someone like me who has a non-technical background could understand what was being said.

An aspect from which this memoir draws its name is the 'Butterfly Effect' about which Dr. Shukla shares his insights and how his own 'Billion Butterfly Experiment' showed results quite different from what the Butterfly Effect Chaos Theory suggested.

Dr. Shukla also shares his experience as the lead author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s Fourth Assessment Report, for which he and his team shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore. The memoir sheds light on the challenges of communicating climate change and the personal sacrifices scientists have to make working in this field.

For readers curious about how modern weather forecasting came to be or the crucial discussions surrounding climate change, this book is a must-read. It delivers invaluable perspectives and a unique narrative that reveals the blend of scientific precision and personal passion.

[Ashley Osborn · Rating 4 out of 5]

If you didn’t already know, I love science! It’s always been my favorite subject in school, and my favorite thing to teach my own kids!

As a lover of all things science, I am constantly reading books on the subject, and trying to learn more.

In “A Billion Butterflies” we get to see history of weather prediction unfold. How it came to be, how it was liked and opposed, and how politics always play a hand in what type of decisions are made.

The book tells the story of renowned climate scientist, Dr. Jagadish Shukla, and begins with his life as a child growing up in India. This is probably the part I found most interesting, because throughout the book, the author returns to his hometown again and again, to try to better the lives of the people still living there. Reading about life in rural India is definitely a culture shock if you’re not expecting it. Life is so different from what we see here in America. It was an eye-opening look into the lives of the less fortunate.

While I may not share all of the same beliefs as Dr. Jagadish Shukla, I still felt like I learned a lot reading his book. If you are a fellow weather nerd, it contains a lot of interesting facts on how weather prediction got its start. It’s very well written and holds your interest.

Somehow I ended up with both an audio book and an ebook of this book. I thoroughly enjoyed them both. The audiobook was very easy to listen to. It definitely kept my interest.