Probably the Best Book on Statistics Ever Written: How to Beat the Odds and Make Better Decisions

by Haim Shapira

Taking an amusing and digestible look at the usually dry world of probability and statistics, this is the ultimate guide to how you can incorporate them into everyday life, from one of the world's most sought-after experts in game theory.

This is the only book you need to become a statistics whizz!


Numbers are everywhere – food packaging, weather forecasts, social media, adverts, and more. You can’t escape them. But you can learn to understand them – and avoid being fooled! This book breaks down the key fundamentals in statistics in a fun and accessible way so that you can understand the numbers that occupy your life.

• Make sense of sports stats – discover who is the greatest scorer of all time
• Learn to interpret scientific studies and how they’re reported in the media so you’re never misled again
• Discover tips and tricks to make you a more successful gambler
• Explore what role stats has to play in flat-earth conspiracy arguments
• Read about misunderstood probabilities in the Sally Clarke and OJ Simpson trials

With easy-to-follow explanations, tables, graphs, and real-life examples, this book helps you evaluate your options, calculate your chances of success, and make better decisions.

Genres: Mathematics, Nonfiction, Audiobook

360 pages, Kindle Edition

Published August 13, 2024

About the author

Shapira was born in Vilnius, Lithuania in 1962 and immigrated to Israel in 1977.Haim Shapira holds two PhD's (Theoretical Mathematics and Science Education) , is one of Israel's most popular and in-demand lecturers, an author of seven best-selling books, a pianist and an avid collector of anything beautiful. He teaches mathematics, psychology, philosophy and literature. His book "Gladiators, Pirates and Games of Trust" was named one of the best Game Theory books of all time by BookAuthority.

Reviews

[James Freeman]

I currently have 85 friends on here and I was wondering how many people might read this book if I write a review. I considered a few factors:

1. Friend Engagement: Not all of my 85 friends will actively engage with my recommendations. If I assume 50% are active readers, that's about 42 people.

2. Interest Overlap: I believe this is a niche book, so I would expect a smaller subset to be interested in statistics. If, say, 25% of active readers enjoy nonfiction or statistics-related topics, that would be about 10-11 people.

3. Conversion Rate: Even if those 10-11 friends see my recommendation, not all of them will necessarily read it. If we assume a conversion rate of 20%, you're looking at about 2-3 friends potentially reading the book.

So, my probability of getting some friends to read it might be around 2-3 out of 85, or 2.35-3.5%.

However, I suggest that you give it a try anyways, even if you are not those 2-3 people.

[M]

Probably not....







Some interesting stories, but generally very unstructured/chaotic.

[Jessica - How Jessica Reads]

This was super interesting, and quite approachable for non-statisticians. The last statistics class I took was ... sometime in 2003 or 2004. But I still followed about 90% of the problems he presents in the book. Plus it's written in a conversational, entertaining way.

[Charles Reed]

Quirky book. That’s the best word for it. Not polished, not perfect, but it hit me with something I hadn’t nailed down before: the law of large numbers, and what it actually does to probability.

Here’s the part that stuck: I always thought probability was static — you’ve got a number, you’ve got your odds, end of story. Wrong. Shapiro showed me the crack in that. The law of large numbers isn’t just about infinite trials, it’s about the difference between a single finite outcome and what happens when you stretch things toward infinity. That shift changes probability.

The cleanest example is contests. If you’re the underdog, you don’t want a series, you don’t want a fair fight over time. You want best-of-one. Because a single trial invites noise — variance — and that’s your shot. Drag it out to best-of-3 or best-of-7, and suddenly the noise gets crushed. The law of large numbers takes over, and your small odds collapse right back down to what they “should” be.

That was the punch for me. Probability isn’t just some fixed percentage — it’s defined by how you set the event. “One trial” and “majority wins out of five” aren’t the same thing. The numbers warp depending on the structure.

The book itself? Eccentric. Sometimes a little too playful for its own good. But it did something most stats books fail at: it rewired my thinking. I walked away with an actual new tool for how I see randomness.

So yeah, 76%. Not flawless, but it taught me something I didn’t understand before, and that matters more than polish.

[Michael McEwen]

I probably was never going to understand 100% of this book, but overall it does a good job of making a complicated subject easier to follow by using words to fully describe the equations. A fine, if nerdy, sense of humor throughout certainly doesn’t hurt.

[John M]

This may be the best statistics book, but it is not really a book for general consumption. I am a numbers guy, but I found this book to be too far out there in the numbers realm. I enjoyed the book, but the author did go weigh deeper into his subject matter than most ordinary humans can digest.

[Andrew]

Great title and I am a sucker for math books, but this one didn't quite do it for me.

[James Mahoney]

what're the odds it's average?

[Joris]

I think the title sets the right expectations. This isn't a textbook on statistics, but an accessible and entertaining introduction to thinking about probability, uncertainty and making better decisions.

The book is written in a light and engaging style, with plenty of examples that make sometimes abstract ideas easy to grasp. Even though the concepts were already familiar to me, I still found myself stopping every now and then to think about situations I don't usually look at from a statistical perspective.

One thing that surprised me was seeing reviews that complained about there being too much mathematics. I actually felt the opposite. I wouldn't have minded if the book had gone a little further into the numbers and the underlying ideas, although I also realize that would have made it a very different book.

Looking back, I was probably expecting something a bit more advanced than what the author intended to write. That's on me rather than on the book. For anyone who wants an enjoyable introduction to statistical thinking without needing much mathematical background, I think this is an excellent place to start.

[Arun Mahendrakar]

The conversational writing style of the book was intriguing - it's rare to read a Stat book that focuses more on the concepts than on formula (though I don't mind a few formula). The author boils the text in simple language and added some humor throughout the book - and that kept me reading it through.

I probably understood most of the concepts explained, but you know how deceptive Probability and Statistics can be!

There were some repetitions for me like Benford's law, unable to recall where I read it before, spurious correlations, etc., but then the author didn't write a book ensuring all concepts in the book were new to me (but wouldn't that be nice).

[Kevin Parkin]

One of the better books on statistics, it's a difficult subject to make 'entertaining' but Haim manages it. It's quite funny in the early chapters, then gets quite complex in the middle, but then gets back to more simplified examples in the later chapters. I'd recommend this book to anyone wanting to obtain a broad understanding of statistics. It's not too heavy on maths, although there is a bit in the middle, its more logic based.

[Autumn Kearney]

This book has a catchy title and cover. I know it is not the best book on statistics, and I have not read many of them. I rolled my eyes at more than one part of this book. I struggle with math and want to learn something about it, not be wowed by it. I learned nothing from this author.

[Mark Leadbitter]

Worst book I've read 4 stars. If you know you know.
Great book a little heavy on the math for my brian but really well done.

[Qinqin]

I really liked it. But I realized that how silly I was to check out the audiobooks because, duh, there would be tables and graphs. I will purchase a paper copy.

[James]

clever and insightful. easy to read and definitely one for maths geeks, but also an easy one to get into!

[Landon Walker]

It's fine. If you have ever taken a stats course skip this.

[Tony Bartel]

Good book, dry like statistics are. but helpful in an economic sense.

[DarkLotus]

Muy bien explicado y entretenido en temas que cada vez son mas profundos pero que son interesantes yo lo disfrute mucho