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320 pages, ebook
First published June 20, 2024
you work on technology, or it works on you
In general the economic history of music has been a movement away from royal patronage towards populism, from court orchestras to public performance to recordings. The gap between the most powerful and the least tends to get narrower.
The cultural result of this control, however, was a shared experience of music. As a listener you only knew the hits, because only a few things could ever become hits, but this was true of everybody, and thus everybody who knew music knew the same music. Or as a listener, at least, you probably felt like everybody who knew music knew the same music as you.
This is what we mean by ‘the monoculture’ when we talk about the history of music. But there was music everywhere, and it mostly didn’t escape the place where it was created, so there were actually many monocultures scattered over the planet.
Pro-Rata vs User-Centric Payments and the Microeconomic Implications of Hypothetical Notions of Fairness in Streaming-Royalty Allocation Schemes: f more-active listeners listen to more-popular artists, then the pro rata scheme will be regressive in the economic (and social) sense, compared to the user-centric one, taxing the less-popular artists to consolidate wealth in the most-popular. Whereas if more-active listeners tend to listen to less-popular artists, then the pro rata scheme will be progressive, redistributing money from more-popular artists to less-popular ones. Thus this very basic question can be answered quantitatively by computing the average number of monthly streams per Spotify listener, and then calculating the average monthly total plays per artist of the artists played by listeners with fewer streams than that vs the ones with more. A ratio greater than 1.0 shows that pro rata is regressive, a ratio less than 1.0 shows that it’s progressive, and either way it does so without revealing any remotely-proprietary actual counts or averages. When I monitored it at Spotify, it hovered around 0.83. More-active-than-average listeners play artists who are, on average, 0.83x as popular... Pro rata is progressive, and user-centric would be regressive.
there are only four major listening modes where playlists are not ultimately the most-traveled path to albums... background noise, where the whole point of a rain-sound playlist, for instance, is to loop in the background without you paying attention to tracks... compilations from genre communities specifically built around individual contributions from many participants... very old genres that only have a streaming audience at all due to nostalgia, and nostalgia exaggerates selectivity... you’re nostalgic for hits you haven’t forgotten and probably can’t... Electronic Dance Music... a function of DJ mixes as the native form of dance music
Streaming is surveillance capitalism... A streaming service [has to surveil] logistically and legally, because it has to pay royalties for the music, and those royalties depend on the song, the account, the date and the time... They know what we play, but they can’t see whether we’re dancing enraptured while the music spins, or two rooms away folding distractingly crinkly laundry. They know which songs we put on playlists, but not what the playlists are for. They know when we play a song ten times, but not whether we’re doing it because of the drums or in spite of the banjo. They know what we click on when we search, but not whether we knew what we were looking for. They can’t tell whether we scroll past their offerings in disdain or distraction. They can’t distinguish between joy and irony... You’re not really being surveilled, but that’s not due to teleological humility or ethical judiciousness, it’s just that invasive surveillance doesn’t address any business problem that isn’t at once more easily and more effectively solved by regression to the mean
Statistical correlations aren’t value-statements, though, and nobody was saying that those 135 manly country songs were more important or more culturally relevant to Country Music than Carrie Underwood or Martina McBride or Sara Evans.
Or at least that would be true, arguably, if it weren’t for that big word ‘Recommended’ at the top. You can’t blame math for multiplying, but you can blame people for any time we label the results of math with emotional implications. We could have said ‘Songs most often found on playlists with this title’. But we didn’t. We wrote ‘Recommended’. We attributed value to popularity.
"Peaceful Piano", which is a burbling font of gently directionless soft-focus piano music... it quickly created a shadow mini-economy of pseudonymous filler purpose-made to appear there or in a spiraling array of imitators. Spotify has been accused of making some of this music itself to avoid paying royalties, which it doesn’t [ED: they do], but this is a meager legal consolation... Meanwhile, pseudonyms prompt many other questions. Are there people behind these aliases? Are the same people behind many of them? Is this how the AI apocalypse begins? ...similar aspirational waves of ambient guitar, dinner jazz, music-box translations of pop songs for babies, or music ostensibly intended to calm your pets while you’re away. Situational repackagings of resolutely unthreatening music now comfortably outnumber those of background noise.
In raw dollars, US ‘recorded music revenues’ peaked around $14.6b in 1999, dove to about $7b by 2015 during the crash, and built back to $15b based on streaming by 2021. That seems great until you realize that $14.6b in 1999 dollars is more like $23.7b in 2021 dollars. The crash actually cut the industry to about a third of its size, not just a half, and 2021 is effectively level with 1991 and 2006, not the 1999 peak. Or 1977-1979, for that matter. So if it feels to you like things in the music business are a lot worse than they were, that’s because they mostly are.
But they’re recovering. Streaming took seven years to go from $1.2b (2014) to $11.5b (2021) in adjusted dollars. CDs were at $1b in 2021 dollars in 1985, and by 1992 had only reached $10.4b. Paid downloads were at $1b in 2006 and by 2013 were already falling from their 2012 peak of $3.4b.
And if you’re participating in any part of this, you are part of music’s recovery, and part of its potential future. If you can afford to subscribe, you should subscribe
Machines don’t learn any more than they know, so when a human tells you a machine is learning, you can safely infer that nobody is learning. Sometimes ML works despite this, and sometimes it causes chaos. So the good news is that the robots are not plotting your downfall. The robots have no domination plan, and indeed no plans at all, and anyway there are no robots.
Glass Animals’ ‘Heat Waves’, featured in a Dream-related romantic fan-fiction, and snowballed from there to an eventual Billboard #1 in its 59th chart-week, which was a record at the time for the slowest rise to the top. This is what a community looks like, of creators and their audience and their shared interests.
A physical album release required lead-time from manufacturing plants, art-direction, typesetting, printing, trucks to drive boxes of things from place to place, hands putting things onto store shelves, buyers going to stores, parking, unpackaging, playback machines with dizzily moving parts. An artistic album, similarly, required interleaved critical masses of conception, composition, personnel, performance, recording, production and sequencing. And these dual accumulations of investment didn’t technically require, but firmly suggested, the other slope of an album cycle... expensive things need to seem serious, and serious things are hard.
Saying you’re a Machine Learning Engineer is like saying you’re going to microwave anything you’re given to cook...
The old algorithm’s set had been carefully filtered in many obsessive ways over the years as we learned which kinds of songs work well in algorithmically generated playlists and which don’t. Songs with long silent gaps are bad, and we have software for detecting gaps. Commentary tracks detached from the songs they’re explaining are bad, and we have software for distinguishing speaking from singing. Kids songs and Christmas songs are bad to mix with non-kids songs or non-Christmas songs, and we have things for those, too. Very long or very short songs are bad.
Discover Weekly is based on co-occurrence of songs between listener-made playlists. And instead of using simple math... it uses... vector embedding, which turns each thing (in this case a song) into a list of numbers.
I listen almost exclusively forward in time, to new music, so you might think that the fate of old music would be of negligible consequence to me. If I hold my head at the right angle, so the right nerves in my neck are compressed, I can almost believe that old songs don’t have to survive, because we can always make more, and more realistically can’t stop making more. But no. New songs exist in historical context...
Genres don’t really exist, they’re just words people use to talk about things... [but, enlightened:] a genre is really a community