The Split: Finding the Opportunities in China's Economy in the New World Order

by Shaun Rein

China dominates manufacturing and is the world's largest retail market, but for companies outside of China, finding ways to do business in the country is increasingly uncertain in the face of rising US-China tension, combined with China's crackdowns on the tech and education sectors.

Shaun Rein runs the China Market Research Group and has spent his career helping multinationals understand where the opportunities are in China. An American who's lived in Shanghai for 25 years, he has long been one of the biggest China bulls. He now argues that while China is not a must-go destination for all companies and investors, there are still many non-politically sensitive sectors where long-term opportunities can be sought.

The Split analysis the geo-political split between the US and China, China's sharp turn towards socialism and how this will cut into fat margins in many sectors. It explains why corporations in sectors such as semiconductors and AI should stay clear of China and relocate to other countries like Vietnam, India and Mexico. Yet principally, Rein makes the case that that fears about China's shift are far overblown and that for most sectors it should remain the main growth driver for even the largest companies.

Expert insights into China's national policy reforms, its rising middle class seeking to save and invest, and their focus on health and wellness, will inform the international strategic decisions for companies around the world in sectors such as finance, consumer goods and auto.

China will soon eclipse the United States as the world's largest economy and companies will lose out if they do not know how to invest in China properly. No company has been able to get into China for 3 years. Shaun Rein hasn't left. He's therefore uniquely positioned to advise now that China is opening up again.

The Split presents a unique and informed case for why the time is definitely now to capitalize on policy changes and trends in China that will support long-term opportunities for your business.

Genres: China, Economics, Business

255 pages, Kindle Edition

Published October 22, 2024

Reviews

[Alvin · Rating 5 out of 5]

Shaun is one of the few voices of reason writing about the reality of where we are now and how we got here in the relationship between US and China. His views are based on decades of real world data and conversations on the ground in both markets.
It's worth a read and you'll be smarter about what you need to do to survive and thrive from this avoidable conflict.

[Jonathan Fein · Rating 5 out of 5]

A real analysis of what is actually going on in China, and what is behind China's major developments. Very interesting and insightful.

[Kelley · Rating 5 out of 5]

An invaluable view of the REAL China

The Split is a brilliant read! If you want to get the authentic view of what China is like in 2024, this book is for you. Shaun Rein has 30 years of experience in China as a business consultant which he uses to explain the economic situation the country faces as it struggles to assert its economic force as the world’s second biggest economy. He shows that China is not like it is portrayed in the western press and by political pundits. His perspective angers some because he shows Chinese strengths, but I find that he is very fair and comprehensive in his common sense approach. I have lived in China for almost 14 years now. I agree with Rein that China is not what western politicians and the press present since they find it politically and economically expedient to villainize China. Rein shows offers straight-forward, real-life examples in each chapter devoted to different aspects of the Chinese economy. In my time in China, I have experienced two of those areas up close and personal (education and semiconductors), and I can attest to the accuracy of what he says. Shaun Rein doesn’t hold back. He calls it like it is. While he feels China gets a bad deal at times at the hands of the US and the West, he also explains where China can do better. He calls out the US for some of their actions, but he also gives it credit too, where credit is due. This book is a very thought-provoking read for anyone who wants to understand the current situation in China, not just what politicians and most western pundits assert . This book is an invaluable resource for anyone trying to do business in or with China. What a terrific book!

[coolwind · Rating 5 out of 5]

This is a very good book on China’s current situation. The author has long time first hand experience and gives very comprehensive and balanced views on China’s political and economic situations. For people considering doing business in China, this book is a good guide.

[Kreso Mance · Rating 2 out of 5]

Let's start with the title, "The Split," which is meant to imply a separation between the USA and China. The title is misleading because America is completely irrelevant in the book; it's exclusively about China. A book that, according to the author, is supposed to be a guide for investors and business people, barely deals with numbers. The author has an irritating writing style where, twice per page (I'm not exaggerating), he invents an anonymous person who provides a quote to underscore his conclusion, which truly becomes tiresome over 15 chapters. It even contains incorrect information, such as the claim that Avatar was filmed in Zhangjiajie (it's clear the author fell for Chinese propaganda that Zhangjiajie inspired Avatar, and the author went so far as to claim it was even filmed there). The entire book feels like an overly long Substack post, very lazily written, clearly just so the author could brand himself as an author of a book on China. Current-day China is a fascinating place and deserves a much better portrayal than such a hastily written book.

[Iván · Rating 5 out of 5]

Estamos ante uno de los mejores libros para entender la China actual. Shaun Rein es uno de mis autores de referencia sobre China.

El libro nos ayuda a entender China y las complejas relaciones políticas, comerciales y económicas con Occidente (especialmente con Estados Unidos).

Como sus libros anteriores, Shaun nos cuenta su experiencia sobre el terreno, y eso se agradece.

Se puede estar más o menos de acuerdo con sus puntos de vista, pero sus miradas son necesarias para intentar mirar las complejidades de China y sus relaciones con Occidente y con el resto del mundo.

[Gerd · Rating 3 out of 5]

The Split transitions from a promising exploration of a global divide into a collection of observations on various societal topics. For readers familiar with Asia or China, much of this might feel too broad or surface-level, making it less engaging. The book starts with ambition but loses its way, ultimately delivering an uneven mix of insights.

[Christian Manley · Rating 3 out of 5]

The Split is a good book for people wanting to get familiar with what has been happening over the past 5 years in China. The chapters on rare earths, the education crackdown, the country’s aging population, healthcare reforms in Tibet, and women's empowerment are the most compelling. I like how Shaun critiques both Beijing and Washington. For the former, he talks about how conversations concerning the education crackdown often miss that party members were worried about declining enrollment. His comment about the need for more women in government is great too. For Washington, he calls for readers to think more critically about the Hong Kong protests and Xinjiang. While I don't believe this book really provides enough evidence to change my mind on these matters, I welcome the alternative opinions nonetheless. The conversation about China still being the future is correct but it plays up the environmental regulations and plays down the geopolitical environment too much.

Unfortunately, the book loses track of its theme somewhere along the way. It's not really just about US-China splitting up. There a bunch of chapters that only talk about domestic events without much talk of the international. Sometimes the economic or investment lessons are added as an afterthought. For the next book, maybe talk more about individual companies rather than the politics. For example, I feel non-Chinese would love to hear about the evolving cosmetics and gaming industries in China. There really wasn't much talk here about Douyin or Xiaohongshu.

[Ocean G · Rating 4 out of 5]

As soon as one moves to China it's clear that most of the information about China available internationally is laughably wrong. Even from just across the straight in Taiwan I was amazed at how different things were on the mainland when I moved there in 2016. And since I left, this is the first book I’ve seen that gave what felt like a real update on the country.


All of this is to say this is a much needed book. You’d be hard-pressed to find a book in English (or any language) discussing China from the inside with such knowledge, as well as candor.

To be sure, there is much I disagree with in the book. I believe he gives Xi a pass for many things, first and foremost as regards Taiwan (Xi forever refuses to even listen to the idea of independence, which isn’t touched upon, as well as the trade bans and constant political/social/military pressure on Taiwan), the trade bans/sanctions with East Asia, and economic coercion in general.

The target is people in the business community, but it might be good for some people in the state department to read this as well. Some great insight.


4.5 stars



https://4201mass.blogspot.com/

[Enrique Marchán · Rating 3 out of 5]

Una muy buena introducción a cómo ha evolucionado China en las últimas décadas, por qué y cómo se han hecho negocios en el país durante todos estos años.

Es algo que quizás ya sabía, pero parte del éxito del país se debe a la posibilidad de aplicar ciertas medidas que serían impensables en una democracia. Especialmente esclarecedora es la explicación sobre cómo mejoraron su sistema sanitario (y eliminaron la sanidad privada).

¿Podríamos, en España, mandar durante un par de años a los mejores médicos de los hospitales de Madrid a Albacete, Cáceres o Jaén para que enseñaran las mejores prácticas médicas? Quizás sea la única manera de que un paciente que no vive en la capital pueda aspirar a recibir un tratamiento similar al de alguien atendido en el Gregorio Marañón.

Repite esto miles de veces, en múltiples áreas y sectores, para conseguir desarrollar un país desde (casi) cero sin dejar a nadie atrás.

[Reader · Rating 4 out of 5]

I've decided to up the rating of the book to 4 stars from 3; despite it's shortcomings, I'd had to give it a conscious ⭐ for laying out the current market trends illustratively with clear context. Shaun did us a great favour for sharing insights into China's post-covid consumer behaviour & target markets from the first person view. However, I still hold my previous view true as per written previously :

Sadly, I read the book with very high expectations going into it; Expecting to to enjoy the read however turns out it doesn't do a good job laying out truth of government mismanagement of its powers particularly in areas I have a working knowledge in eg. Tech crackdown & nationalization of the edutech industry. This book isn't even approved to be sold in China. Writer could simply lay out the truth however failed to do so.

[Jerry · Rating 4 out of 5]

The content of the book will be informative for Americans who want fresh perspectives. That alone makes reading this book worthwhile.

One caveat I'd add is the writing tone itself is basic and high-level. Put another way in line with the title, there's a lot of directional opportunities that's useful but less detail than I'd like.

I would firmly recommend this read to friends who are interested in this topic.

[Francis Herzog · Rating 5 out of 5]

A visionary must-read overview

This is an excellent collection of easily digestible insights on the past, present, and future impact of Chinese culture on the rest of the world. It’s especially valuable to those readers who’ve never been to China, and wish to be better prepared to face some inevitable trends that will affect almost everyone in the years to come

[Kj Moodie · Rating 5 out of 5]

Shaun provides a personable insight into contemporary Chinese society and the economy. A great read for those wanting to know what the REAL China is currently like, and provides a critical context into attitudes and beliefs of several segments of the Chinese population.

[Dominic Soon · Rating 4 out of 5]

Lots of anecdotes that are positive on Chinese economy, but little in the way of real data to prove the points.

[Brian Yarwood · Rating 5 out of 5]

CHINA 🇨🇳 Inc

China 🇨🇳 plays the long game …. like Grey hairs who grew up
with just their shirts on their back and are prepared to take risks.
It was just the same for us the U.K. baby boomers who were needed
In work from 1960 -1980 to build up the U.K economy.
Thanks to Harold Wilson Labour Government we were allowed
to get higher education free.
Thank Margaret Thatcher’s and wealthy husband Dennis
Thatcher ( Burma Oil , Iran )
Rolled out Global corporate feudalism the seeking lowest cheap labour and zero taxation and pollution costs
And here we are …..