深時遠見：時間感如何影響決策，人類如何擺脫短期主義的危局

by Richard Fisher, 張毓如 (Translator)

▍▍金字塔、巨石陣、大教堂耗時數百年才能完成，古人為何會開始明知此生看不到成果的計畫？
　 快轉至數千年後的人類世，現在的人們又是用什麼時間跨度的眼光做出決策？

福特汽車在一九六○年代因為競爭對手的壓力，趕著兩年內設計量產出小車Pinto，致命的瑕疵導致多起意外；傳承五代的百年家族企業鐵姆肯公司，敵不過投資人的獲利要求，被迫分割公司，終結傳奇；華爾街因為短視重新包裝不可靠的次級房貸，引發二○○八年的金融危機……我們對於這些短視決策釀成災禍的事例並不陌生。

這種短期主義隨處可見。我們可以在商業中看到：財務季度主導企業思維、市場股東的需求，鼓勵公司領導者只進行週期思考。我們可以在民主政治中看到，促使政治人物只考慮對下一次選舉有幫助的政策。我們可以在環境議題上看到，當前的經濟競爭讓各國無法真正合作解決氣候變遷和海洋酸化的問題……


▍▍但人類並非一直都是這樣的，我們如何走到今天？
　 不同的時代、民族、文化、語言的人如何看待時間，又如何規劃未來？

古羅馬人相信命運，認為時間朝他們流過來，未來不會改變。他們腦中的未來是「靜止的現在」，認為後世之人將跟他們有著同樣的需求和生活；
早期的基督徒認為時間由創世開始，會在末日終結。於是他們一直在等待。這種末世觀滋生出一種短期主義，認為應即時狂歡，任何阻擋大災厄努力都是徒然。

直至一千年多後，科學接手了時間觀：地質學家赫頓發現了地球存在數十億年的證明，「深時／deep time」的發現自此顛覆了人類對時間的認知，西方社會經歷了一場深刻的變革，歷史學家將其稱為「發現未來」，哲學家康德在其中看到了啟蒙文明的新高度；再來，時鐘的普及使眾人同步，帶來集約化和商品化，工業使時間成為「可以操縱、管理、控制的可量化資源」，在西方產生深遠的影響；最後是電腦，以光纖速度前進的數位發展，我們的分秒決定都左右人類的未來。


BBC未來頻道資深記者理查‧費雪在書中詳細闡述短期思維如何主導西方社會，為什麼這可能對未來帶來災難，並探討了歷史性的以及現實世界中具有長遠眼光的例子。
費雪除了從心理學、認知科學、社會學、人類學、甚至語言學，探討我們對短期思維的時間偏差外，還提供了一些方法，包括納入透視思維，即以未來存在的心態來看待生活，擁抱長深時遠見之美。

Genres: Nonfiction, Philosophy, Book Club

352 pages, Paperback

Published January 6, 2024

Reviews

[Anne Michiels · Rating 5 out of 5]

A very good book, which is gently uplifting; we are not powerless before the enormous aeons and forces. I will remember “ the past is singular, but the future is always plural.” What you choose to attend to, the choices you make, matters a great deal.

[Christian · Rating 4 out of 5]

Part National Geographic article, part existential crisis, part heartwarming anecdote. There was a lot to absorb here, positive and negative. Well written with a straightforward voice.

Picked up from the Edinburgh International Book Festival following a talk with the author.

[Andrew · Rating 4 out of 5]

The Long View tackles a topic that seems lost in the daily presentation of life through social media and short news cycles, and it does so with care and an even hand. Author Richard Fisher makes a series of persuasive arguments for a long-minded approach to most aspects of society, looking at the incompatibility of capitalism with long-mindedness; Longtermism (our responsibility for future humans); our perception of deep time; how rituals and traditions shape our timeviews; climate change and much more. I was particularly interested in how language can affect our predisposition for short term or long term thinking - it turns out that there are considerable implications. Each section of the book is filled with fascinating insights, and culminates nicely with a reflection on how symbols and stories are powerful allies in fostering long-termism. There are segments which are quite dry (I particularly found the sections around capitalism and politics to drag on a bit), but on the whole, the book unifies a number of disciplines within the theme of the long view and does so wonderfully. This is a quality piece of non-fiction that has plenty to be referenced and considered.

[Stephen Power · Rating 5 out of 5]

Exactly the deep, thoughtful book I've wanted to read on time for, well, a long time. Incredibly thought-provoking.

Also it incidentally revealed one aspect of why conservatives are the way they are: they live in an enchanted, eternal present the way people did before the Industrial Revolution. They aren't standing athwart history and yelling, Stop! They're standing athwart the future--because their self-aggrandizing bigotry and superstition has no place in it. This is why Harris's message, We're not going back! is so powerful and affecting. It attacks what they, incapable of a long view, would do to us and our desire for a better tomorrow.

[Leif · Rating 4 out of 5]

A fine book with a promise that slightly outstrips its delivery - but then again, how common is that? Some of the chapters are stronger than others, and the tone emphasizes hopefulness. Perhaps not a world-changing book but one worth reading. I felt that Fisher's journalist take on this question was quite a bit stronger than the similar messages from geologists, such as Marcia Bjornerud's Timefulness.

I should also refer readers to the author's blog of sorts, which amplifies some of the chapters in his book: The Long View.

[Carmen Gabrielle Ferguson · Rating 3 out of 5]

A good book on long term thinking covering a huge amount of topics: from business, to culture, language, ecology and art, all aspects are analysed with some brilliant insights. I found incredible that languages can impact our long term thinking for example. I would’ve liked more practical recommendations on the ways we can improve our long term thinking through everyday actions though.

[Bas · Rating 2 out of 5]

The long view takes a rather western narrow view of things. Rather a disappointing read which focussed way too much on the recent western invention of longtermism.

[Jessica · Rating 4 out of 5]

7/10

🫥 I'm not a fan of the 1-5⭐ rating system, it doesn't feel like it gives enough wiggle room to accurately gauge how I would rate a book. 1-100 feels a little pretentious so I'll stick with 1-10. Obviously, to fit into Goodreads current system, I'll still have to translate it back into 1-5⭐

9-10⭐ - Highly recommended even if it's not your typical read. Seriously, find some time and read it.
7-8⭐ - Well written, taught me something, hit me in the feels, or just a fun read. Recommended if you're interested in the subject matter.
5-6⭐ - Meh. I can find value in it but not recommended unless you are super interested in the subject matter.
3-4⭐ - It was alright. I finished because of subject interest, worthy author, easy readability, interest in it's popularity, etc.
1-2⭐ - Either DNF or so bad I needed to warn others.

[Akshat · Rating 5 out of 5]

I enjoyed reading this perspective-enhancing book that takes a balanced look at why we must think about the long future and how best to do it. It helpfully points to the problems of the Effective Altruism crowd.

"Fisher says a quick read of history shows that humans are pretty poor at forecasting, a record that only gets worse the further out on the timeline we try to go. It’s better, Fisher notes, to appreciate how much power we still have over the coming reality." My climate review of the book: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...

[Jonathan · Rating 4 out of 5]

I did enjoy reading this book however I felt in places I was drowning in the impossibility of the continuation of life and civilisation on this planet Earth. We may be unable to survive against what is considered the greatest threat to life on Earth - climate change, as we continue this sleep walk towards disaster taking all living species with us in the oblivion. Or just maybe we will find a way to improve the Earths lot.
Perhaps we have time for tomorrow!

[Rob Nicholson · Rating 2 out of 5]

I liked the premise but found it unengaging dredging through what seemed like Google-fu research spewed onto a page. The global perspective was limited and practical advice lacking. It was filled with way too much Hindsight Bias and "Post Hoc Egro Propter Hoc" for my liking.

I wish the author was more upfront about his view instead of defaulting to the recurring "makes you think" stance.

This book was okay but I would not recommend it.

[Ken Jenkins · Rating 5 out of 5]

Unique perspective

Great point of view that is so needed in our life today. I liked his personalization of time using our children and their children's life's and our desire for them to have a bright future. He wrap the book up well too, explaining how this should drive a positive outlook for us today.

[Megan · Rating 4 out of 5]

4.5 stars. A well researched book that looks at the importance of taking a long view, our concept of time and what stops us from taking the long view. Covers business, politics and artistic endeavours.

Tomorrow is always multiple possibilities. We only know which one lands in the present moment. But we can plant the seed of long term thinking today.

[History Today]

This was chosen by Patricia Fara, Emeritus Fellow of Clare College, Cambridge and columnist at History Today, as one of History Today’s Books of the Year 2023.

Find out why at HistoryToday.com.

[Anna Hyclak · Rating 4 out of 5]

A bit slow at times (but maybe that’s the point?), this is nonetheless an interesting read about the various factors that contribute to how we perceive time — and why slowing down and taking the long view might be exactly what humanity (and the earth) needs.

[Meredith · Rating 5 out of 5]

Absolutely loved this book! Please read it!

[Masnoon Majeed · Rating 5 out of 5]

A Meditation on time, I found the book very insightful, and it helped me appreciate better on cultural understandings and experiences of time.

[Marc Alexander · Rating 4 out of 5]

Ironically took me a very long time to read so I gave it the due time it deserved 😂

[Birdong · Rating 4 out of 5]

對於現今社會缺乏長期意識的觀點深感認同，甚至具備長遠眼光對個人當下的行動能產生不同的意義和調整，有時還能具備療癒自我的功能，後半段寫的有些雜亂，不然肯定五星好評。也許我們不該認為自己是最後一代���世界末日迫在眉睫，是有氣候與病毒等危機沒錯，但我們可能可以用後世可能發展的龐大人口與潛力那種天文等級的規模來規勸自己留下什麼更好的環境給後人。

[Alex Holmes · Rating 4 out of 5]

An interesting perspective, and actually quite hopeful. Some chapters more interesting than others

[Young Jun · Rating 5 out of 5]

Such a great book!

[Scarlett · Rating 3 out of 5]

Nothing groundbreaking if you already know that late stage capitalism is shit