Any Happy Returns: Structural Changes and Super Cycles in Markets

by Peter C. Oppenheimer

“Clear and well-written, and can be seen as a helpful primer on a wide range of issues independent of its main theses” – The Society of Professional Economists - Reading Room

“An invaluable read for economic history buffs, the book also offers hints on how to invest wisely that will appeal to other readers too.”– Financial Times

‘An in-depth but accessible analysis of the complex factors that impact structural changes in financial markets and investor opportunities.’

In Any Happy Structural Changes and Super Cycles in Markets, celebrated author Peter C. Oppenheimer delivers his much-anticipated follow-up to The Long Good Buy. The book discusses how structural changes in macroeconomic drivers, geopolitics, government policy and social attitudes all combine to drive secular super cycles that help to explain investor returns.

The author focuses on what he calls the Post-Modern Cycle, what it's likely to look like, how it will unfold and what investors should focus on. You'll also

An introduction to the history of cycles and structural ‘Super Cycles’, and what has driven them. A detailed analysis of Super Cycles since 1945, including the Post-War Boom, the Great Moderation, the post Global Financial Crisis and Pandemic era. The specific drivers of the emerging Post-Modern Cycle amid a higher cost of capital, bigger governments, more proactive industrial policy, greater regulation, and less globalisation. Oppenheimer focuses on the developments in technology and AI, and on efforts to de-carbonise economies, and how these might impact financial market returns and opportunities. An invaluable resource for students of economic and financial history, and for investors, Any Happy Returns is essential reading for anyone seeking insights into upcoming market conditions and returns.

Genres: Finance

367 pages, Kindle Edition

Published January 17, 2024

Reviews

[Julius · Rating 5 out of 5]

What a fantastic read! This book covers exactly what it says: structural changes and super cycles in markets. In layman’s terms I think of these as large inescapable trends that aren’t specific to just a single country or presidency, but rather a long period (can be decades) and of lasting impact. For example the huge demographic shift happening across the world, especially western countries. The ratio of retirees to workers is increasing and this doesn’t look like anything that could be changed soon or at all. The author discusses phases in markets and their characteristics and references many illustrative examples. The book is well balanced with just the right amount of detail and readability. Highly recommend to people interested in recent economic history and investors.

[Caden Crum · Rating 3 out of 5]

Let’s start with the positives. This book did exactly what it says and effectively discussed supercycles in markets and went through the past 5 in depth. The author is the #2 at Goldman Sachs so it’d prob be wise to listen to what he’s saying. Unfortunately, I feel his analysis was a little dull and was much less interesting than Ray Dalio’s cyclical evaluation in “Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order”. I was hoping for some more specifics on how to invest in the picking cycle rather than just broad generalities. Also got bored at the end with the climate change and ESG propaganda.

[Leroy Lim · Rating 4 out of 5]

4.5 Stars. Great read to understand the nuances of cycles. Peter distills the key concepts into clear and straightforward points while also providing insights into their application. In contrast to his first book (The Long Good Buy), he focuses more on real world examples and cycles in this volume and takes the reader through his own assessment of the path forward from 2023 - important structural factors are highlighted and expounded clearly.

Overall an accessible book for lay investors and interested readers who want to dive into the weeds.