What do you think?
Rate this book
Baseball Prospectus 2014
The bestselling annual baseball preview from the smartest analysts in the business Now in its 19th edition, the "Baseball Prospectus" annual shows once again how it became the industry leader: The 2014 edition includes key stat categories, more controversial player predictions, and the kind of wise, witty baseball commentary that makes this phone-book-thick tome worth reading cover to cover.
"Baseball Prospectus 2014" provides fantasy players and insiders alike with prescient PECOTA projections, which "Sports Illustrated "has called ""perhaps the game's most accurate projection model."" Still, stats are just numbers if you don't see the larger context, and "Baseball Prospectus "brings together an elite team of analysts to provide the definitive look at all thirty teams--their players, their prospects, and their managers--to explain away flukes, hot streaks, injury-tainted numbers, and park effects. Victory, after all, could come down to choosing between the supposed sleeper and the overrated prospects who won't be able to fool people in the Show like they have down on the farm.
Nearly every major-league team has sought the advice of current or former "Prospectus" writers, and readers of "Baseball Prospectus 2014" will understand what all those fans have been raving about.
""If you're a baseball fan and you don't know what "BP" is, you're working in a mine without one of those helmets with the lights on it.""--Keith Olbermann
""The first time I saw the PECOTA projections, I realized that someone out there understood."" --Jeff Luhnow, General Manager, Houston Astros
""For me, every year baseball begins with the big, brilliant, beautiful book you are holding in your hands right now.""--Joe Posnanski
"Baseball Prospectus 2013 "correctly predicted:
*Disappointing performances by Albert Pujols, Dan Haren, Michael Bourn, Justin Upton, and Tommy Hanson.
*Breakouts by Paul Goldschmidt, Freddie Freeman, Kyle Seager, Matt Moore, Shelby Miller, and Jason Kipnis, as well as bounceback seasons from Jayson Werth and Shin-Soo Choo.
*That Max Scherzer would be a Cy Young contender and Michael Wacha ace-in-waiting for the Cardinals.
*That Wil Myers would be a middle-of-the-order bat for Tampa Bay and Josh Donaldson would finally win the Rich Harden trade for the A's.
*That CC Sabathia's velocity drop could be a problem, but Felix Hernandez's would not be.
*That Joaquin Benoit, Kenley Jansen, and Koji Uehara were better bullpen bets than pre-season closer picks Bruce Rondon, Brandon League, and Joel Hanrahan.
"Baseball Prospectus 2014" provides fantasy players and insiders alike with prescient PECOTA projections, which "Sports Illustrated "has called ""perhaps the game's most accurate projection model."" Still, stats are just numbers if you don't see the larger context, and "Baseball Prospectus "brings together an elite team of analysts to provide the definitive look at all thirty teams--their players, their prospects, and their managers--to explain away flukes, hot streaks, injury-tainted numbers, and park effects. Victory, after all, could come down to choosing between the supposed sleeper and the overrated prospects who won't be able to fool people in the Show like they have down on the farm.
Nearly every major-league team has sought the advice of current or former "Prospectus" writers, and readers of "Baseball Prospectus 2014" will understand what all those fans have been raving about.
""If you're a baseball fan and you don't know what "BP" is, you're working in a mine without one of those helmets with the lights on it.""--Keith Olbermann
""The first time I saw the PECOTA projections, I realized that someone out there understood."" --Jeff Luhnow, General Manager, Houston Astros
""For me, every year baseball begins with the big, brilliant, beautiful book you are holding in your hands right now.""--Joe Posnanski
"Baseball Prospectus 2013 "correctly predicted:
*Disappointing performances by Albert Pujols, Dan Haren, Michael Bourn, Justin Upton, and Tommy Hanson.
*Breakouts by Paul Goldschmidt, Freddie Freeman, Kyle Seager, Matt Moore, Shelby Miller, and Jason Kipnis, as well as bounceback seasons from Jayson Werth and Shin-Soo Choo.
*That Max Scherzer would be a Cy Young contender and Michael Wacha ace-in-waiting for the Cardinals.
*That Wil Myers would be a middle-of-the-order bat for Tampa Bay and Josh Donaldson would finally win the Rich Harden trade for the A's.
*That CC Sabathia's velocity drop could be a problem, but Felix Hernandez's would not be.
*That Joaquin Benoit, Kenley Jansen, and Koji Uehara were better bullpen bets than pre-season closer picks Bruce Rondon, Brandon League, and Joel Hanrahan.
- GenresSportsBaseballNonfiction
592 pages, Hardcover
First published January 29, 2014
7 people are currently reading
28 people want to read
About the author
Baseball Prospectus
140 books16 followersBaseball Prospectus is an organization that publishes a website, BaseballProspectus.com, devoted to the sabermetric analysis of baseball. BP has a staff of regular columnists and provides advanced statistics as well as player and team performance projections on the site.
Since 1996 the BP staff has also published a Baseball Prospectus annual as well as several other books devoted to baseball analysis and history.
Since 1996 the BP staff has also published a Baseball Prospectus annual as well as several other books devoted to baseball analysis and history.
Ratings & Reviews
Friends & Following
Create a free account to discover what your friends think of this book!
Community Reviews
Displaying 1 - 15 of 15 reviews
March 22, 2014
Nobody reads the Prospectus because of a review--either it's on your list or it isn't--but I wanted to chip in with a brief complaint about this year's version. I'm pretty sure this is the first time the Prospectus has gone to by-lined team essays. On the one hand, why not? On the other, the change appears to have contributed to a slightly egotistical style in a fair number of the essays--writers writing cutesy instead of smart. (I'm a Pirate fan and the Pirate essay is a prime offender.) Noticing that made me think a bit more about a shift that's crept in over the past few years. When I first started reading the Prospectus, I encountered quite a bit of writing that changed my perception of players in interesting and (from a fantasy baseball perspective) useful ways. Increasingly, the center of gravity of the essays has shifted from the field to the front office; I'd guess that at least half of this year's essays focus on how general managers go about building winning teams. That's interesting and relevant, but, for me and I'd guess a majority of baseball fans, it's secondary. I'm sure that part of this has to do with the fact that the numbers guys have made a real impact on baseball and that they're focusing on the parts of the story which advertise them best to potential employers in front offices.
The individual player notes and the stats are still what they were, so it's not like this year's Prospectus was a bust, but I'm docking it a star in hopes that future editions will shift their attention back to the field.
The individual player notes and the stats are still what they were, so it's not like this year's Prospectus was a bust, but I'm docking it a star in hopes that future editions will shift their attention back to the field.
March 31, 2014
Either this holds no interest for you, in which case I bid you a good day, or you're intrigued by it, which means it may already be too late for you to lead a normal life. Anyway, I enjoyed my annual preseason baseball geek fix.
January 25, 2014
I really enjoy this volume's arrival each year. It is filled with sabermetric analysis. Statistics beyond ERA, batting average, slugging percentage, etc. add a deeper dimension to sensing how well a player did. Also enjoyable is PECOTA, a system to project a player's performance in the upcoming season--in this case 2014.
Normally, I immediately go to see how my favored team, the Chicago White Sox, is represented here. Last year was not a good year, as the statistics show (1st in unearned runs allowed, # 1 is fewest runs scored) and their talent cupboard (major and minor league) and their finances and management rate 29th in baseball. Not auspicious for the coming season.
The player by player analyses are always interesting, and I especially like the projections. For instance, Adam Dunn. A hitter with a lot of power (let's forget a dreadful 2011) and a low average (the last three years: .159, .204, .219). 2014? A .214 batting average and 28 home runs. Not sure the home runs counter the miserable projected batting average. There is a 0% chance he will improve his performance dramatically, a 22% chance of improvement, only a 7% chance of a collapse (major decline), and a 17% chance of attrition (having performance decline--but not dramatically). Paul Konerko has had a career that is worthy of appreciation. However, he has been slowing down. Last year--a .244 batting average, just 12 home runes, and just 54 RBIs. A career in decline. This will be his final year. Projections? 19 homers, 68 RBIs, and a .269 batting average--a mild comeback from last year. We shall see what actually happens.
Pitching? The projection is for Chris Sale, a terrific pitcher by a variety of statistics, to have some problems winning. He is projected at 11-7 (last year, he had as fine year by most metrics, but was only 11-14 in wins and losses, due to a lack of support). He is projected to have a 2.70 ERA.
And on it goes, team after team.
Each year, this book brings me smiles as I look at team after team and wonder how the projections actually play out.
Normally, I immediately go to see how my favored team, the Chicago White Sox, is represented here. Last year was not a good year, as the statistics show (1st in unearned runs allowed, # 1 is fewest runs scored) and their talent cupboard (major and minor league) and their finances and management rate 29th in baseball. Not auspicious for the coming season.
The player by player analyses are always interesting, and I especially like the projections. For instance, Adam Dunn. A hitter with a lot of power (let's forget a dreadful 2011) and a low average (the last three years: .159, .204, .219). 2014? A .214 batting average and 28 home runs. Not sure the home runs counter the miserable projected batting average. There is a 0% chance he will improve his performance dramatically, a 22% chance of improvement, only a 7% chance of a collapse (major decline), and a 17% chance of attrition (having performance decline--but not dramatically). Paul Konerko has had a career that is worthy of appreciation. However, he has been slowing down. Last year--a .244 batting average, just 12 home runes, and just 54 RBIs. A career in decline. This will be his final year. Projections? 19 homers, 68 RBIs, and a .269 batting average--a mild comeback from last year. We shall see what actually happens.
Pitching? The projection is for Chris Sale, a terrific pitcher by a variety of statistics, to have some problems winning. He is projected at 11-7 (last year, he had as fine year by most metrics, but was only 11-14 in wins and losses, due to a lack of support). He is projected to have a 2.70 ERA.
And on it goes, team after team.
Each year, this book brings me smiles as I look at team after team and wonder how the projections actually play out.
March 15, 2018
The crew at BP constantly changes, but the quality of the work they produce remains high. I have purchased every edition of this book and plan to do so as long as the work merits it. The analysis is generally first rate. Over time, they have clearly integrated lessons from scouting and "tools" and slightly diminished their reliance upon actual results. Some top-ranked prospects from the past likely would not have been so highly ranked by today's BP and vice versa.
March 4, 2014
I enjoyed this version of the prospectus as the team reports had by-lines, so more personality could show up in these. I also appreciate how many (most? all??) of these authors seem to understand that the extra measurements (of which I am a huge fan) are another way to look at the game, not the only way. I still think this should be picked up and read by any baseball fan.
March 1, 2015
Not crazy about the intolerant sabermetric bores inundating the baseball media today (Joe Posnanski, Brian Kenny etc.) but the Prospectus does provide good value and interesting viewpoints on certain players. Analytics without getting too preachy. I still like RBI guys, so shoot me.
March 5, 2014
Well, it's not the same. So many of the original writers have moved on, it would be hard to maintain the same level of excellence they had back in the day.
Read
March 12, 2014Seriously every baseball fan needs to go out and buy these books the day they come out every year.
April 4, 2016
I read the annual every year. Every year's addition seems like an improvement on the previous year.
April 4, 2014
The gold standard. Such a thorough examination of >1k players.
March 11, 2014
Pick it up for the marvelous essays, and then wallow in the playground of baseball knowledge!
April 30, 2014
Five stars. Every year.
November 16, 2014
The bible.
January 26, 2015
Baseball Prospectus is the simply the best stats book out there. If you are fan, you need this.
Displaying 1 - 15 of 15 reviews