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Quarterly Essay #94
Highway to Hell: Climate Change and Australia's Future
What will the climate crisis mean for Australia? What is the price of our inertia?
Australia is in peril. Do we truly grasp the impact of a warming planet – in particular, what it will mean for our sunburnt country? As temperatures rise, the climates of our capital cities will change. The sea will rise, and we will see increased fire and drought.
In this powerful essay, Joëlle Gergis, a leading climate scientist, depicts the likely future in vivid and credible detail. Working from the science, she discusses the world's and Australia's efforts to combat climate change. She outlines how far Australia is from keeping its promises to cut emissions. She takes aim at false solutions and the folly of "adaptation" rather than curbing fossil fuel use. This is an essay about government paralysis and what is at stake for all of us. It's about getting real, in the face of an unprecedented threat.
"How many disasters does it take to wake people up to the fact that Australia's climate is becoming more extreme, with today's destruction set to be dwarfed by things to come? Do people realise that adapting to climate change won't be possible in some parts of the country?" Joëlle Gergis, Highway to Hell
This essay contains correspondence relating to Quarterly Essay 93 Bad Cop from Niki Savva, Thomas Mayo, Lachlan Harris, Mark Kenny, Robert Wood, Paul Strangio, and Lech Blaine
Australia is in peril. Do we truly grasp the impact of a warming planet – in particular, what it will mean for our sunburnt country? As temperatures rise, the climates of our capital cities will change. The sea will rise, and we will see increased fire and drought.
In this powerful essay, Joëlle Gergis, a leading climate scientist, depicts the likely future in vivid and credible detail. Working from the science, she discusses the world's and Australia's efforts to combat climate change. She outlines how far Australia is from keeping its promises to cut emissions. She takes aim at false solutions and the folly of "adaptation" rather than curbing fossil fuel use. This is an essay about government paralysis and what is at stake for all of us. It's about getting real, in the face of an unprecedented threat.
"How many disasters does it take to wake people up to the fact that Australia's climate is becoming more extreme, with today's destruction set to be dwarfed by things to come? Do people realise that adapting to climate change won't be possible in some parts of the country?" Joëlle Gergis, Highway to Hell
This essay contains correspondence relating to Quarterly Essay 93 Bad Cop from Niki Savva, Thomas Mayo, Lachlan Harris, Mark Kenny, Robert Wood, Paul Strangio, and Lech Blaine
122 pages, Kindle Edition
First published June 3, 2024
11 people are currently reading
62 people want to read
About the author
Joëlle Gergis
8 books11 followersDr Joëlle Gergis is an award-winning climate scientist and writer. She served as a lead author for the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report and is the author of Sunburnt Country: The History and Future of Climate Change in Australia. Joëlle has also contributed chapters to The Climate Book by Greta Thunberg, and Not Too Late: Changing the Climate Story from Despair to Possibility, edited by Rebecca Solnit and Thelma Young Lutunatabua.
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 33 reviews
September 24, 2024
5/5
"The world needs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 43 per cent by 2030 [from 2019 levels]...
[If COP28 pledges are fully implemented] global greenhouse gas emissions are projected to decrease just 5.3 per cent from 2019 levels by 2030.
...the implementation of current pledges would only reduce emissions by around 2 per cent instead of the 43 per cent needed by 2030." (Pg. 46)
This is terrifying.
"The world needs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 43 per cent by 2030 [from 2019 levels]...
[If COP28 pledges are fully implemented] global greenhouse gas emissions are projected to decrease just 5.3 per cent from 2019 levels by 2030.
...the implementation of current pledges would only reduce emissions by around 2 per cent instead of the 43 per cent needed by 2030." (Pg. 46)
This is terrifying.
June 11, 2024
Given what is at stake, this essay should be required reading for every politician (and their advisors) in Australia. If this doesn’t scare some sense into them, I don’t know what would.
Although it specifically focuses on Australia, the work is informative at an international level.
Although it specifically focuses on Australia, the work is informative at an international level.
November 2, 2024
Very hard hitting - should be a must read for every politician
August 21, 2024
Whenever I discuss climate change, I always tell people that in 1988 my HT asked me to write a unit on Weather and Climate. It was then that I first read, what was then referred to as, the greenhouse effect. At that time I didn’t fully understand the role of cardon dioxide CO2 , but I had an inkling of the process that some texts briefly mentioned. I remember wrapping the class globe in a blanket and explained how a blanket keeps us warm, similar there is a build up of CO2 that ‘keeps the Earth warm.’
The ozone hole had been discovered in 1985 and it did not take long to find that human-produced chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) caused the hole and that it's expansion could have dire consequences for humans.
It was Al Gore’s 2006 film An Inconvenient Truth that really raised the issue. Naturally the industries that mined or produced carbon were not going to let their profits be harmed by policies to reduce carbon.
Those that believed in the sanctity of the market weren’t going to let anyone interfere with the natural market processes. It was those countries that had adopted whole heartedly the neoclassical economic policies that developed groups that were most vehemently opposed to policy that promoted policies aimed at countering climate change, USA, Australia, Canada.
It has been an interesting phenomenon where people who could not name more than two or three elements of the periodic table yet will happy claim ‘global warming is a scam.’
Finally, I live in northern Thailand and over the months of May and June the whole of Southeast Asia was caught under a dome of heat where every day the temperature soared well into the forties (degrees celsius) and during the evenings the mercury never ventured south of 30 degrees. Without air-conditioning I doubt I would have survived. I had seen global warming, and it was not pretty.
As such I did not need to be convinced of the certainty of outcomes of an increase in atmospheric carbon, the subsequent increase in the Earth’s temperature and the drastic changes that will occur.
Joelle Gergis essay is mind numbing depressing for the planet but even more so for Australia. Probably no other country has been at war with itself over climate change policies as Australia. Sadly as I write the LNP has re-ignited this war with its obvious nuclear power scheme policy and it's subtle and less obvious policy of stifling alternative and sustainable energy sources.
Gergis supplies page after page of the dire consequences of governments and people doing nothing or very little about the continued production of carbon.
I pessimistically do not see much hope for the future of the planet if humans continue as if there was no need for change. It interests me as to how climate change will affect the different countries and local areas. Some areas will be drastically affected while other will probably be able to maintain some remembrance of normality. Naturally it will be the poor who will suffer the most.
I do have criticisms of this essay. I think the author writes in generalities. She needs to be more specific about changes that are occurring as she wrote. Examples, examples, examples of environments being directly affected today by climate change.
I recently heard of a study of Cheetahs in Africa losing their ability to hunt because the increase in carbon had promoted.
I don’t think this essay will be read by many ‘deniers’. It will confirm the views of those who acknowledge the work of scientists in this field.
I don’t think the human species is as intelligent as many assume. I don’t think many will accept the consequences until it is too late. I will have departed this planet long before the devastating effect hits masses of people. Sadly that mass will be made up of the poorest and in today’s socio-political climate there is little care or consideration for this group.
The ozone hole had been discovered in 1985 and it did not take long to find that human-produced chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) caused the hole and that it's expansion could have dire consequences for humans.
It was Al Gore’s 2006 film An Inconvenient Truth that really raised the issue. Naturally the industries that mined or produced carbon were not going to let their profits be harmed by policies to reduce carbon.
Those that believed in the sanctity of the market weren’t going to let anyone interfere with the natural market processes. It was those countries that had adopted whole heartedly the neoclassical economic policies that developed groups that were most vehemently opposed to policy that promoted policies aimed at countering climate change, USA, Australia, Canada.
It has been an interesting phenomenon where people who could not name more than two or three elements of the periodic table yet will happy claim ‘global warming is a scam.’
Finally, I live in northern Thailand and over the months of May and June the whole of Southeast Asia was caught under a dome of heat where every day the temperature soared well into the forties (degrees celsius) and during the evenings the mercury never ventured south of 30 degrees. Without air-conditioning I doubt I would have survived. I had seen global warming, and it was not pretty.
As such I did not need to be convinced of the certainty of outcomes of an increase in atmospheric carbon, the subsequent increase in the Earth’s temperature and the drastic changes that will occur.
Joelle Gergis essay is mind numbing depressing for the planet but even more so for Australia. Probably no other country has been at war with itself over climate change policies as Australia. Sadly as I write the LNP has re-ignited this war with its obvious nuclear power scheme policy and it's subtle and less obvious policy of stifling alternative and sustainable energy sources.
Gergis supplies page after page of the dire consequences of governments and people doing nothing or very little about the continued production of carbon.
I pessimistically do not see much hope for the future of the planet if humans continue as if there was no need for change. It interests me as to how climate change will affect the different countries and local areas. Some areas will be drastically affected while other will probably be able to maintain some remembrance of normality. Naturally it will be the poor who will suffer the most.
I do have criticisms of this essay. I think the author writes in generalities. She needs to be more specific about changes that are occurring as she wrote. Examples, examples, examples of environments being directly affected today by climate change.
I recently heard of a study of Cheetahs in Africa losing their ability to hunt because the increase in carbon had promoted.
I don’t think this essay will be read by many ‘deniers’. It will confirm the views of those who acknowledge the work of scientists in this field.
I don’t think the human species is as intelligent as many assume. I don’t think many will accept the consequences until it is too late. I will have departed this planet long before the devastating effect hits masses of people. Sadly that mass will be made up of the poorest and in today’s socio-political climate there is little care or consideration for this group.
June 3, 2024
“We are on a highway to climate hell with our foot still on the accelerator.”
July 31, 2024
In 2023, Australia experienced the hottest winter since 1910; yet all the government of the globe can offer nothing but ineffective and costly carbon collection and storage and the immensely ridiculous ‘carbon credits’ to offset not resolve out climate crisis. Joëlle Gergis has constructed a damning exposé on the Australian public and its government. Climate change is most certainly real and it is abundantly clear that Australia at large is unbothered. Forget the Great Barrier Reef and it’s already 80% damage, or the wild fires that have destroyed more than 19 million hectares of forest - don’t worry about, it’s not a big deal. These conflicting reports and opinions are ruining our future.
Perhaps the most frightening part of this brilliant essay is that ALL the evidence is there, ALL the science is there AND yet indifference prevails. It seems blinded compliancy is as convenient as it is destructive and insane. Gergis informs us of an initial groundswell of global support after the 2005 Kyoto protocol but political will seems to have dissipated since then in favour of further armaments, COCID relief and an impending global economic crisis.
There is really nothing more I can add to this beautifully written and detailed statement of impending doom. So, “please, don’t look away. There isn’t a moment to waste.”
Perhaps the most frightening part of this brilliant essay is that ALL the evidence is there, ALL the science is there AND yet indifference prevails. It seems blinded compliancy is as convenient as it is destructive and insane. Gergis informs us of an initial groundswell of global support after the 2005 Kyoto protocol but political will seems to have dissipated since then in favour of further armaments, COCID relief and an impending global economic crisis.
There is really nothing more I can add to this beautifully written and detailed statement of impending doom. So, “please, don’t look away. There isn’t a moment to waste.”
July 1, 2024
An excellent, horrific and brave essay that should be read by everyone, and certainly by every Australian politician. It’s easy to be fooled by the fluff of politicians, and in this essay Joelle Gergis sets it out straight. There’s no time to lose, and now is not the time for anyone to turn away. Highly, and urgently, recommend this read on Australia’s embarrassing and devastating steps towards climate disaster, and what solutions and technologies are readily available, if for the political will.
February 24, 2025
This is a wake up call. The alarmism now is warranted and required. The solutions are not radical, but the only lacking component is the political will of those we have elected. The public's comparative disinterest within Australia reflects this fact.
The failure of the political class to respond to desperate calls to avert from the 1.5c threshold will be judged and studied for years to come.
Whilst the prose is clunky, the message still renders through. We can't look away.
The failure of the political class to respond to desperate calls to avert from the 1.5c threshold will be judged and studied for years to come.
Whilst the prose is clunky, the message still renders through. We can't look away.
June 6, 2024
Compelling, urgent, necessary.
A horrifyingly clear account of just how dire the situation that fossil fuel companies have put us in, from one of Australia's foremost experts in the field, with some hope at the end for how we can seize the closing window of opportunity.
"Writing about the disconnect between climate science and policy... is no longer heartbreaking, its infuriating." says the author. I truly hope others read this and come away feeling the same
A horrifyingly clear account of just how dire the situation that fossil fuel companies have put us in, from one of Australia's foremost experts in the field, with some hope at the end for how we can seize the closing window of opportunity.
"Writing about the disconnect between climate science and policy... is no longer heartbreaking, its infuriating." says the author. I truly hope others read this and come away feeling the same
June 21, 2024
Deeply depressing. The confirmation that we are so far down the highway to hell, the stark disaster of COP28 and the fiddling at the edges by the current government is incredibly frustrating when what we should be doing is very clear.
BUT, Gergis just cannot write. The tortured prose, sentence by sentence, was as painful as reading a Murdoch press opinion piece.
BUT, Gergis just cannot write. The tortured prose, sentence by sentence, was as painful as reading a Murdoch press opinion piece.
January 9, 2025
Insightful essay that is a compelling analysis of the existential threat climate change poses to human civilisation. Gergis highlights a few key recommendations, those which first come to mind are:
- Ending fossil fuel subsidies and initiating large-scale investment in renewable energy to make subsequent private investment more commercially viable.
- Revising legislation that effectively permits corporations to increase absolute emissions under the pretext of reduced deforestation and enhanced carbon sequestration.
The lack of meaningful progress on these fronts—especially under our current so-called progressive government—highlights the raw power and influence of fossil fuel lobbyists. Their agenda remains focussed on safeguarding short-term economic and corporate interests, regardless of the long-term costs to humanity and the environment.
Rather than addressing the core issue of reducing absolute emissions, lobbyists tout dubious technologies like carbon capture and storage (CCS), peddling the illusion of reducing “net emissions”. As this essay makes clear to any fair-minded reader, these tactics are embarrassing and evasive, delaying the inevitability of a global climate crisis. It’s time for major carbon emitters to stop treating this existential threat as a mere box-ticking exercise. Without a decisive shift to renewable energy in the coming decades, we risk locking in catastrophe.
The government must act decisively by implementing a robust cap-and-trade emissions policy to both price and limit carbon emissions. History shows that relying on corporations to voluntarily reduce emissions is laughable and ineffective.
Evidence-based media campaigns are essential to educate Australians about the causes and consequences of climate change. The public must recognise that transitioning to renewable energy—solar, wind, and base-load sources like pumped hydro and batteries—makes fiscal and practical sense. But, much progress in this area is also stalled by the fact that people don't perceive the consequences of global warming unless they are acute and directly visible, but by this point, vast irreversible damage would have already been done.
Given Australia’s unique climate and lack of nuclear infrastructure, expertise, and supportive legislation, a pivot to nuclear power is irrational. The only beneficiaries of such a move would be uranium miners and their political allies—conservative parties like the LNP, which often exchange leniency on emissions-reducing legislation for campaign funding from these industries. Mining magnates like Gina Rinehart are also hedging their bets, preparing for the decline of coal and oil by investing in uranium.
Frankly, a move to nuclear energy and lack of climate action probably doesn’t make sense to the rational-minded politicians in the LNP either. However, it aligns with their broader ideological commitment to minimal government regulation, and a powerful, largely unregulated private sector as a key pillar of the economy. Coupled with their reliance on donations from mining corporations, the political logic becomes clear, even if it undermines rational climate policy.
Read this essay. Share it with your friends and family. Engage in conversations, especially with sceptics, and equip yourself with logical arguments that climate denialists can’t refute. Turning our backs and hoping this crisis resolves itself is no longer an option.
- Ending fossil fuel subsidies and initiating large-scale investment in renewable energy to make subsequent private investment more commercially viable.
- Revising legislation that effectively permits corporations to increase absolute emissions under the pretext of reduced deforestation and enhanced carbon sequestration.
The lack of meaningful progress on these fronts—especially under our current so-called progressive government—highlights the raw power and influence of fossil fuel lobbyists. Their agenda remains focussed on safeguarding short-term economic and corporate interests, regardless of the long-term costs to humanity and the environment.
Rather than addressing the core issue of reducing absolute emissions, lobbyists tout dubious technologies like carbon capture and storage (CCS), peddling the illusion of reducing “net emissions”. As this essay makes clear to any fair-minded reader, these tactics are embarrassing and evasive, delaying the inevitability of a global climate crisis. It’s time for major carbon emitters to stop treating this existential threat as a mere box-ticking exercise. Without a decisive shift to renewable energy in the coming decades, we risk locking in catastrophe.
The government must act decisively by implementing a robust cap-and-trade emissions policy to both price and limit carbon emissions. History shows that relying on corporations to voluntarily reduce emissions is laughable and ineffective.
Evidence-based media campaigns are essential to educate Australians about the causes and consequences of climate change. The public must recognise that transitioning to renewable energy—solar, wind, and base-load sources like pumped hydro and batteries—makes fiscal and practical sense. But, much progress in this area is also stalled by the fact that people don't perceive the consequences of global warming unless they are acute and directly visible, but by this point, vast irreversible damage would have already been done.
Given Australia’s unique climate and lack of nuclear infrastructure, expertise, and supportive legislation, a pivot to nuclear power is irrational. The only beneficiaries of such a move would be uranium miners and their political allies—conservative parties like the LNP, which often exchange leniency on emissions-reducing legislation for campaign funding from these industries. Mining magnates like Gina Rinehart are also hedging their bets, preparing for the decline of coal and oil by investing in uranium.
Frankly, a move to nuclear energy and lack of climate action probably doesn’t make sense to the rational-minded politicians in the LNP either. However, it aligns with their broader ideological commitment to minimal government regulation, and a powerful, largely unregulated private sector as a key pillar of the economy. Coupled with their reliance on donations from mining corporations, the political logic becomes clear, even if it undermines rational climate policy.
Read this essay. Share it with your friends and family. Engage in conversations, especially with sceptics, and equip yourself with logical arguments that climate denialists can’t refute. Turning our backs and hoping this crisis resolves itself is no longer an option.
June 14, 2024
This is a succinct and scary analysis of where climate-related policy is at in Australia. Things have changed so much since the days of trying to turn off enough lights and installing energy efficient fridges. The clear tone of this essay is that we are being let down by the inaction of leaders. Gergis uses clear evidence to make her case, and makes no excuses for the failures of government.
In summary: Gergis is frustrated. There is a clear path to containing the disaster that is already unfolding. Politicians are unwilling to organise a coherent approach, or are unable to navigate through public and political ignorance and misinformation.
In summary: Gergis is frustrated. There is a clear path to containing the disaster that is already unfolding. Politicians are unwilling to organise a coherent approach, or are unable to navigate through public and political ignorance and misinformation.
July 28, 2024
Short even for a Quarterly Essay but packed full of morbid reminders of what is to come over the next decades. It took me a little while to get into but I'm not sure whether I'd put that down to the author's prose or my own unwillingness to read about the impending suffering we are bringing upon ourselves. How we still let the profits of coal miners and gas extractors override our survival instincts is beyond me.
August 1, 2024
great read, hope it is also found persuasive to someone on the fence about how to manage the climate transition because i was already in almost complete agreement.
it was a little frustrating reading this right after reading a book written in 2005 and finding most of the content the exact same… the progress we have made so far feels marginal and seems to be moving at an excruciating slow pace, while the catastrophic consequences of inaction (or even insufficient action) are mounting.
it was a little frustrating reading this right after reading a book written in 2005 and finding most of the content the exact same… the progress we have made so far feels marginal and seems to be moving at an excruciating slow pace, while the catastrophic consequences of inaction (or even insufficient action) are mounting.
August 31, 2024
This is quite sad in some ways as the author is giving up her distinguished academic career to lobby for more genuine action on climate change in Australia. This essay lays out the reasons behind this decision. It is a good précis of the problems we are having getting any real action out of governments or corporations rather than empty promises and greenwashing. It is a necessary read on the state of play in Australia at the moment. Good luck with your next endeavour!
June 16, 2024
Well this was depressing. Joëlle Gergis provides an excellent and urgent summary of the current state of climate catastrophe, and the horrifying extent to which the world is ending. I’d like to facetiously thank governments everywhere for twiddling their thumbs in the face of damning science.
September 18, 2024
A little less fear mongering around nuclear power and accidents, which is a very shaky basis for an argument wouldve put this at a 5 star. (Which is impressive for an essay)
It actually made me take some action of my own, reaching out to a solar panel company, and ditching some coal investments
It actually made me take some action of my own, reaching out to a solar panel company, and ditching some coal investments
October 7, 2024
I’ve been reading about the cancer that is neoliberalism, this is so disturbing it makes me feel foolish that I as a citizen have been duped all these years by government that has sold us all down the river.
June 4, 2024
We are so screwed
June 10, 2024
This is a horror story with the more worrying benefit of being real!
When will we start to understand?
When will we start to understand?
July 7, 2024
Great read although not particularly optimistic. Gergis places the blame for climate change squarely on politicians pandering to corporate interests and impresses the need for immediate action.
July 22, 2024
Read this essay and then vote.
August 8, 2024
Essential reading for all Australians
September 30, 2024
Horrifyingly compelling, so engaging and readable. Wish it could be mandatory reading for all Australians
October 12, 2024
Harrowing stuff. Thanks for your bravery, Gergis.
December 12, 2024
a must-read
January 12, 2025
Sobering to read - climate change is all around us but humanity is helpless against the apathy of governments.
February 2, 2025
This next election is going to be interesting. Why don't any of them have the guts to do the right thing?
February 23, 2025
Similtaneously absolutely terrifying and sad. History won't look kindly on us unless we change something real quick.
Displaying 1 - 30 of 33 reviews