The New Cold War: How the Contest Between the US and China Will Shape Our Century

by Robin Niblett

An urgent and essential assessment of the global contest between the US and China, and how looking to history will help us to navigate it, from former Director of Chatham House

"An illuminating book for the interested citizen as well as for those making policy" - Hillary Rodham Clinton

We have entered a new Cold War. The contest between America and China is global and unbridgeable, and it encompasses all major instruments of statecraft - economic, political and military. It has its tinder Taiwan. And both protagonists are working hard to draw allies to their side from across the world.

We stand at its beginning. But this Cold War is nothing like the conflict between the Soviet Union and the West which defined the second half of the twentieth century. We need new ideas to navigate its risks and avoid a globally devastating hot war. In this urgent and necessary book, Robin Niblett argues that only by looking back can we learn the lessons to guide us through this new he goes through the ten ways in which the New Cold War is different and offers five rules for navigating its onset.

How we manage this contest will determine not only whether there is still space for international cooperation to deal with our many global challenges, from the climate emergency to the technological revolution, but also who will lead the twenty-first century and, quite simply, the course of all our futures.

Genres: Politics, Nonfiction, China, History, Audiobook, Contemporary

192 pages, Paperback

Published October 1, 2024

Reviews

[Price Wilborn · Rating 4 out of 5]

This was an easy, entertaining, and educational read. Having read Graham Allison’s “Destined for War,” Niblett’s narrative was understandable and a natural next step to Allison’s work (which Niblett references on page 4 of this book). Niblett’s perspective as a British academic and policy expert allows him to provide a perspective that Allison largely ignores throughout his book — the perspective of other countries and their roles in this growing conflict. His emphasis on groups like the G7, the G20, and the Global South make sense and show that, in today’s interconnected world, collaboration between these groups is essential if America and liberal democracies are going to prevail.

[Abbie · Rating 3 out of 5]

really interesting read and learnt a lot but I think it was slightly too star spangaled American for me
possible to recognise the threat of autocratic countries while also making valid and important criticisms of a US led “liberal democratic” international order but I don’t feel like the book did enough of the latter
3.5🌟

[Vineeth Nair · Rating 5 out of 5]

Crafted with precision, the book is an engaging read. It simplifies rationale behind some of the most complex geopolitical decisions countries have made in recent times. Great read

[Barry Green · Rating 4 out of 5]

Nothing new here that is not possible to find from news sources. I would say that this book is an introductory read for those with zero or little knowledge on the history of relationships between the US and China + Russia.

[Daniel Schotman · Rating 5 out of 5]

In less than 200 pages one is brought completely up to speed in terms of the current geopolitical relation of the world. Highly recommend, clear, to the point and factual.

[Harry Anderson · Rating 4 out of 5]

4 / 5 - a good and relatively short read exploring the geopolitical tensions between the US and China. Accessible for a non-expert reader too.

The backdrop is obvious - the USA is receding from its global role in the world just at the point when China is increasingly looking to flex its muscles, and the consequences this has for several other countries (eg the UK, Australia, South Korea, Japan) who now need to boost investment for their own security.

The thesis in the book is that the context above means the new Cold War isn’t the same as the old Cold War - the US and China have become economically interlinked through the globalisation of the 1990s and 2000s and so are now having to de-risk (and in some instances de-couple), plus the Global South have far greater clout in this conflict relative to Europe than when thinking of the previous Cold War. Another crucial difference is that China is not like the USSR of before. It’s on a completely different economic trajectory, it’s less fragile (from what we can tell), and more integrated into the global economy. In short, the world is more multipolar than the more black and white, socialist vs capitalist, US vs USSR of the first Cold War.

This Cold War is also ideological - but not in the way the last Cold War was. It’s not socialism vs capitalism but authoritarianism vs democracy. A belief in the importance of the state vs the rights of the individual. China

Niblett is also quite nuanced about what China are looking to achieve. A good way is thinking about it is the fact that Xi Jingping looks out from Beijing and see the USA in *their* space - attempting to dominate the Asia-Pacific region, and trying to shape the region - and wider world - to the values system, whereas China (understandably) want to be the dominant player in their region and space. It’s not certain they want to play the role of global hegemon that the US have played since 1945 (ie protecting their interests, and the interests of liberal democracies, around the world), but they do want to at least be the biggest player in their region - and for the US to recede from this space. Trump’s election, and the return of a more insular, America-first programme, may accelerate this trend.

Similar to the last Cold War, the book also explores how the new Cold War will impact non-aligned countries - but in a more significant way than previously (given their growing share of the global population and economy). Ie India looking to capitalise on Western supply chains and manufacturing needing to be moved out of China due to rising tensions between the US and China.

Overall good - but I’m in no way a geopolitical expert!

[Josh Hamilton · Rating 5 out of 5]

I officially started this book on the 6th October, but realistically I read it at the end of the month over the course of 3 days. Niblett makes it exceptionally easy to understand the state of the world from a geopolitical and economic point of view, bringing readers up to speed on the interrelationships between a host of different countries.

I agree with other readers in that it is quite America-centric, but then there is only so much that you include in around 165 pages. I’d personally much rather Niblett’s approach, rather than one that tries too hard to be all-encompassing. Plus, getting that view from an eastern perspective would probably be more enlightening anyway.

I also had the pleasure of seeing Niblett at the Cheltenham Literature Festival, where he expanded on his ideas. If you get the chance to see him speak, I’d highly recommend you do.

On a side note, it feels weird to state how much this book excited me, since I love learning about the Cold War, yet this feels almost like a ‘Cold War - the Sequel’. And that’s certainly not something that we should be getting actively excited about.

[Ian Humphries · Rating 4 out of 5]

To the point review of the current state of play between the new global rivalries and how this differs from the previous US/USSR cold war. Full of facts and precise breakdowns that are easy to follow. You don't need to be a geopolitical expert to understand and hopefully enjoy this book. It does drift into a lecture on climate change like the book itself has to convince you it's an impending disaster when really it's the 'net zero' implementation and the politics and cooperation required which is the dynamic to be explored. This climate bias leads to climate change being described as 'the biggest global challenge of this era' when a few pages later we have 'Beijing's current priority is not arm's control. It wants to build a stockpile of (nuclear) warheads'. Thermonuclear global warming is the one I fear. That said, excellent book, I've learnt a lot. Going to be a handy reference book as we move into the new Trump era.

[Dominika Kapala · Rating 4 out of 5]

Quatre étoiles, car il s’agit d’un livre succinct, léger et limpide d’une grande utilité pour tout étudiant ou passionné des relations internationales et diplomatiques. En 165 pages, Robin Niblett réussit à captiver le lecteur sur des sujets pourtant complexes nécessitant un travail de synthèse remarquable. Après cette lecture, le tri est fait. Tous les articles ou rapports qu’on a pu lire sur la donne géopolitique actuelle s’agglomèrent en une idée claire : la démocratie libérale ne vaincra qu’en s’unissant. Je finis mon éloge sur la capacité de Niblett à trier et à sélectionner les informations de sorte à rendre sa thèse visionnaire sans être dans la redondance. Unique bémol : des passages historiques à mon sens inutiles qui épuisent le lecteur généralement déjà familier avec le domaine et l’histoire des relations internationales.

[nicholas · Rating 3 out of 5]

I really did enjoy the geopolitical analysis presented in this relatively short and snappy read, yet I feel as though it lacks the nuances that could take it that step forward into a more fair and balanced discussion about the future of global relations. I feel as though the entire notion of a single, American writer already places a great bias on the topic. Introducing a second writer or opinion within China or somewhere of that calibre can open it up further, build on the length of the book, and induce a larger conversation.

[izzie o’neil · Rating 4 out of 5]

i found this book very useful as an overview of the geopolitical landscape of the early 2020s, obviously focusing on Chinas and the USAs rising tensions. i personally focused on the parts on nuclear proliferation as that is what interests me. Overall a very succinct and concise summary of how the next few years in global politics could play out!

[Oliver Smart · Rating 4 out of 5]

A lucid insight into the present geopolitical order. Highly praiseworthy for condensing a vast topic into an exceedingly readable and succinct book.
The tone of my reading did, however, change upon the November 5th US presidential election result. Is the world going to become that bit more unstable now? How will The New Cold War develop now that the tanned wig-man is back in the White House?

[JX Crystals Inc (Consignment) · Rating 5 out of 5]

Taiwan and Thusidides Trap

I agree with Noblest thesis that we need to avoid a war over Taiwan. I like that he provided a lot of statistical data. I am giving this book a five star because a hope a large number of mid west rural Americans as well as people in China will read it and help avoid a war.

[Wan Katzlan · Rating 4 out of 5]

This book is both engaging and accessible, offering a wealth of factual information and insightful commentary on the emerging dynamics of the new Cold War. The author provides a clear and well-structured comparison between the historical Cold War and its modern counterpart, making it a timely and thought-provoking read.

[Alice · Rating 4 out of 5]

Putting the pieces of the puzzle together, from China to the US to Japan and South Korea to the Global South. The book would have benefited from another revision when it comes to language; shorter sentences would significantly improve readability.

[Ben Mapletoft · Rating 4 out of 5]

I don’t think this was entirely the book I thought it would be… I knew a lot already but it did have a few valuable insights. Really enjoyed the way Niblett broke down complex ideas into manageable chunks!

[Libby Andrews · Rating 3 out of 5]

Insightful but not memorable. I enjoyed this book and I felt a lot happier after reading it but it highlights the need for us to work productively with China to avert any crisis.

[Luke Negri · Rating 4 out of 5]

4.5 - An interesting, concise, and accessible discussion regarding the current global political landscape.

[Nuutti · Rating 4 out of 5]

A concise, greatly readable overview.

[James · Rating 5 out of 5]

An excellent introduction to the new global race between the US and it's allies and China

[Damien]

Alternate title: The New Cold War: How America is Better At Being Neoliberal than China

[Lewis LAM · Rating 3 out of 5]

This book was an informative look into the history between the two countries and the comparisons between the current cold war and the previous. my takeaway from this book is that it will be a cold war rather than a warm one (due to much greater interdependency on each other than the USSR & US) but to the point where collaboration on things like global warming will be the ultimate demise of both countries.

[dasha · Rating 5 out of 5]

A quick read but effectively breaks down the main factors of the new ‘cold war’ between the US and China