The Great Financial Crisis, from 2007 through 2009, starkly illuminated the structural and moral weaknesses of the capitalist system of the time. Among the structural weaknesses: the financialization of the western industrial economy as it shifted from manufacturing to financial services, wildly inaccurate conventional wisdom about regulation and risk, income disparities and unequal capacity to weather financial shocks, and the inadequacy of public institutions of the day to deal with systemic risk. Among the moral issues: tolerance of the economic disparities that rendered middle class families unable to counter falling asset values, the growing political resistance to government intervention and economic regulation of any kind, and the vacillation between “Old Testament” morality and technocratic pragmatism.
From 2007 to 2009 the Dow Jones index fell by 54%, from a peak of 14,164 to 6,547. About 11 million U.S. mortgages went underwater, meaning the value of the mortgage exceeded the value of the asset. That was about 22% of all mortgaged homes. The unemployment rate rose from 4.4% to 10%; at it’s peak 15.3 million Americans were unemployed. Enormous financial institutions like Lehman’s, Wamu and Country Wide were bankrupt, posing significant systemic risk to many other counterparties. Banks and near banks like Merrill Lynch, Bear Stearns, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wachovia and Fannie and Freddie Mae teetered on the edge of insolvency. Giant insurance firms like AIG, with policy holders around the world, faced insolvency. Several countries, including Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain (the PIIGS) appeared close to defaulting on their sovereign debt.
Into this economic chaos, enter Timothy Geithner, a kind of wonder boy heading the New York Fed and President Barack Obama’s choice for Treasury Secretary. Geithner was a member of the technocratic pragmatist school who claims to have not really wanted the job, believing that others were more experienced and qualified to be appointed. But when POTUS asks, apparently it is hard to resist.
Clinton and George W. Bush had been busy chipping away at the banking regulatory system in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Bush inherited a budget surplus of $128 billion from Clinton but proceeded to run up a gargantuan $1.4 trillion deficit through spending at the Iraq war and tax reductions.
The early 2000s was party time in the financial world. There were weird and wonderful financial instruments like Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) and Mortgage Default Swaps used to facilitate lending on an assumption of continual increases in underlying asset values. A large portion of these financial shenanigans took place outside the world of financial regulation, in the investment banks, mortgage lenders and insurance companies. House prices in America were rising rapidly; “when the music is playing, you have to dance.” The FOMO emotion was driving activity. In the mortgage market brokers joked about “liar loans” (fictions about the borrower’s income) and NINJA mortgages (No income, No Job, No Assets). This was no laughing matter when the real estate bubble burst. After the November election in 2008, the Republican Bush left the Democrat Obama with American history’s biggest and dirtiest poopy diaper.
For a book delving into matters of the “dismal science” of economics, the story is compelling and well written, painting a picture of financial events and personalities that brings the reader into the room. Geithner seems to be an honest and, at times, a humble chronicler the way matters unfolded. He confesses the mistakes he personally made and describes the lessons to be drawn. He expresses regrets, not only for his fumbles but also for the inadequacy of the institutional machinery to cope with the crisis and the economic pain experienced by the homeowning middle class. He often refers to his regret about the time away from his family, commuting to his job, sleeping in his office during several of the most desperate episodes, and the amount of travel to international economic meetings. He comes across as intelligent, but not brilliant, diligent, disciplined, a good communicator and team leader and above all, trustworthy.
Financial markets, like money, depend on trust; a belief that the rules of the games are stable and known and that there is enough transparency and dependable data to make informed decisions that lead, more often than not, to positive outcomes. One of the key issues driving the GFC is the opacity of large parts of the financial system and ignorance about the vulnerabilities posed by the sophisticated financial instruments used to facilitate lending and manage mortgage risk. After the dust settled, some leaders at the top of the financial food chain confessed that they did not completely understand the inherent risks of practices in their business. If the people in charge don’t understand their business practices, how are the users of those instruments like mortgage brokers and mortgage holders going to understand them?
The core risk in a financial crisis is a “run on the bank”. Depositors consumed by fear rush to withdraw their money before there is none to withdraw. Similarly, lenders fear their terms will not be honoured and they will not recover their loans. Banks have no deposits to lend, and the credit market begins to seize up. In a general atmosphere of chaos and fear, trust vanishes. Which firms are teetering on the edge of insolvency? How far will share values fall? When long respected firms like Lehman’s fail, the fear and mistrust is validated. The cure for this doom loop is to establish a clear, authoritative and believable picture of the financial realities. That is what the “stress test” did. Geithner’s team at Treasury selected 19 of the most critical financial institution, constituting the bulk of the U.S. financial, system and subjected them to rigorous testing of their financial resiliency. The results of the tests were made public for inspection and commentary. The finding of the tests was that 10 of the 19 firms required injection of capital to withstand plausible economic shocks. Some of this capital, $70 billion, was injected by the federal government. The majority came from the private market. Once the facts were known and the government’s show of force was evident, the financial system began to function again.
The stress test itself was a form of risk taking. When the process began, the outcome was far from certain. What if the test revealed that all 19 firms were on the brink of bankruptcy? What if the 10 firms that needed capital were unable to get it because a recalcitrant congress would not provide the authority? Give credit to Geithner and the Treasury team for having the intelligence and courage to proceed.
There were several take aways for me. First, fiscal management at the senior government level is much different than at the household or personal level, a fact that confounds politicians of all stripes. The “moral hazard” of propping up financial firms whose leaders made disastrous judgements which threatened not only their firms, but the entire financial infrastructure, would seem to be clear cut. But when risk becomes systemic, policy makers may find it necessary to hold their nose and do the propping up. Systemic risk poses the risk of a line of dominos. When the first one falls, panic sets in, adding fuels to the fire. “Old Testament” justice would let poorly managed firms fail and would force shareholders and bond holders to “take a haircut” which triggers “sell” emotions in a market where there are no buyers. Punishing those who caused the fire seems like the right thing to do but, at the height of the collapse, it was the wrong thing to do because it stirred up fear which could easily lead to panic. Lehman’s bankruptcy came close to bringing down other pillars of the financial edifice. Many in the Old Testament school railed against bailouts and forced mergers warning it would lead to profligate behavior down the road. Those in the pragmatic school warned that failure to address systemic risk posed by some of the major players about to go under would lead to the collapse of the entire financial edifice with dire long-term consequences. They countered the moral hazard warnings with statements like “The fact that people smoke in bed is not a good reason not to have fire departments.”
Second, the United States at the time the GFC began did not have a full toolbox of policy tools to manage the crisis. Innovation in financial instruments outpaces the evolution of public institutions. One is driven by animal spirits and smart people. The other is based on reason, political negotiation – and some smart people. That is probably a dependable way to view regulation. Much of the risk that built up in the financial system resided in areas that were outside the normal regulatory apparatus. Not only were the tools nonexistent or inadequate to the task, but the size and nature of the risk was not well understood. Many smart people managing huge financial companies did not understand the risks inherent in the products they were selling. They certainly discounted the impact of a significant decrease in asset values. When the match fell into the dry tinder, it turned out that the fire trucks were not equipped with hoses. New programs developed on the fly had to be steered through a congress that, for its part, could not understand the dynamics of the crisis.
Geithner references the Powell Doctrine of military strategy, especially the piece about bringing overwhelming military force to the fight once you have established clear objectives and developed broad public support. The book makes it clear that application of this strategy was almost impossible in the U.S. system of governance. In 2008 and 2009 it was difficult in the extreme to bring the political forces together dampen the fear. And it was equally difficult to get the regulatory authority to apply the financial resources available. In the end, it was a miracle that the GFC in the U.S. was not more catastrophic and longed lived. Major banks like Bank of America or Citibank could have gone under. At that point, the panic would have been unstoppable.
The third takeaway is the pigheadedness and duplicity of many Republican politicians of the day. In 2008 the Republicans lost the white house and were minorities in the House and the Senate, though they had power in the Senate using the filibuster. Bush left Obama with an enormous deficit and financial chaos, but from day one Republicans blamed every bad economic metric on Obama and used their residual power in the Senate to block Obama’s attempts to address the flailing financial system. The early 2000s was the era of tea party Republicans who were anti government, anti regulation and anti tax at every turn. Geithner, who no one would describe as a progressive Democrat, came away from his job in 2012 with a jaundiced view of Republican politics. It was not their finest hour, and it has got much worse in the succeeding years.
In the end, many parts of the burning bridge were in fact salvaged. GM and Chrysler were saved from bankruptcy. Various shotgun wedding mergers prevented a number of major bankruptcies, and a various government mortgage programs reduced the number of residential mortgage defaults by a few million. But millions of families lost their homes. The U.S. emerged from the crisis earlier than many other countries even though the cancer started there. Geithner and his team were at the institutional center for developing the policies and programs for doing this. Congress provided just enough authority to put out the fire but not before it had wreaked havoc across the world. Winston Churchill was rumored to have said something like “You can always count on the Americans to do the right thing – after they have tried everything else.” That’s a pretty good summary of the story contained in Stress Test.