Künstliche Intelligenz ist allgegenwä in Politik, Nachrichten, Werbung, Apps, aber auch in Gesprächen mit Familie und Freunden. Seit OpenAi ChatGPT im November 2022 veröffentlichte, ist ein neues Zeitalter angebrochen. Aber was bedeutet das Wachstum der KI für den Finanzmarkt? In diesem wichtigen Buch zeichnet der Wall-Street-Veteran und ehemalige Berater des Verteidigungsministeriums James Rickards ein umfassendes Bild der Gefahr, die KI für die globale Finanzordnung und die nationale Sicherheit darstellt. Er zeigt, dass KI wesentliche Eigenschaften wie Instinkt, Risikobereitschaft, Verstand und Einfühlungsvermögen fehlen, die es braucht, um den weltweiten Finanzmarkt zu regeln und die Sicherheit vor Cyberkriminalität und Deepfakes zu gewährleisten. MoneyGPT ist ein Appell, die Gefahren der Künstlichen Intelligenz rechtzeitig zu erkennen und mit menschlicher Logik und gesundem Menschenverstand einzuschreiten.
In MoneyGPT, James Rickards plows forward with his unique brand of eschatology. Mr. Rickards imagination and attention to detail is laudable, but many of the hypothetical apocalypse scenarios hinge on factors present long before the emergence of generative AI.
Until now, Mr. Rickards' extensive experience in finance has blessed him with the ability to write plausibly believable crisis literature. However, the technical aspects of contemporary systems--and how generative AI has or has not modified those systems' confidentiality, integrity, and availability--are clearly beyond Mr. Rickards' understanding.
As potentially apocalyptic threats to the global economy shift from financially engineered to technically engineered, an individual with a stronger understanding of those systems will need to take up the mantle of financial doom literature.
Additionally, Mr. Rickards' personal political philosophies have become so intertwined with his work that unless you hold those same political views, you will find accepting the premises to be extremely difficult. In many ways the book feels like a split-story house built wholly out of petitio principii.
This book is written by and for non-technical folks who--despite their desire to be techno-pessimists--do not possess the technical acumen for it.
This is probably James Rickards' most important book; it is also prescriently timely. All the usual themes in the author's work (always keep some gold and physical cash, diversify your assets, try to live in an environment with strong community values, etc.) are back, under a new context, which I found normal, and frankly welcome. However, the context, of the dawn of the age of Artificial Intelligence, is peculiarly relevant, and Rickards makes a pretty persuasive, and well founded, and well reasoned, case of some of the potentially egregious pitfalls ahead, as the leveraging of artificial intelligence is associated with, or commanded by, natural stupidity.
“The danger is not that AI will malfunction but that it will function exactly as intended. The peril is not in the algorithms but in ourselves. Systems designed to save investors from losses will amplify them. Systems designed to save depositors from bank runs will trigger them. Systems designed to prevent nuclear escalation will escalate. The failure in each case stems from the inability of engineers to collaborate with subject matter experts, and the inability of all concerned to recognize how design efforts are easily defeated by hard to describe facets of human nature considered irrational in the postmodern condition yet robust and rational when viewed through a Neolithic lens. The missing link for system developers is that not much has changed in the past ten thousand years. Self-preservation, wealth preservation, family, and religion still come first. Fear and panic are always just below the surface. These factors will dictate behavior—not regulators, trading halts, capital ratios, or reason.
In nuclear war fighting, the dynamic is similar. The AI systems and almost all of the decision-makers can safely be said to be rational. What’s missing from AI are the irrational or noetic qualities of sympathy, empathy, and simple humanity. In 1962, neither Kennedy’s nor Khrushchev’s advisers urged de-escalation, yet they both did it. In the Oko glitch of September 1983, it was a Soviet officer who disobeyed launch orders who spared the world. In the Able Archer 83 escalation, nuclear war was avoided by a U.S. officer who stood down from a high state of readiness despite opening NATO to a possible first strike. In these and other cases it was humans who did not go by the book that saved the day. Machines can’t do that; they can only go by the book, at least so far.
Perhaps the greatest danger from AI and GPT does not reside in the superintelligent versions said to be on the way but in the more ordinary versions already on display. This harks back to what philosopher and writer Hannah Arendt called the “banality of evil” in her account of the 1961 trial of Adolf Eichmann in Jerusalem. (...)”
The last paragraph above also illustrate something valuable in this book, a wealth of relevant History and concepts. One example:
“Larson covers the ground from Aristotle to recent philosophers and describes three forms of reasoning that prevail in truly intelligent systems: deduction (drawing valid conclusions from premises), induction (drawing inferences from observations), and abduction (guessing informed by a lifetime of experience and noetic signs). (...) Abduction is the human ability to use a combination of common sense, semiotics, situational awareness, and a wealth of real-world experience to make well-informed guesses in order to solve problems. It’s about spotting clues that others miss or seeing what’s missing that should be in place. It’s how detectives solve crimes when there are no witnesses. Guesses can be wrong, yet those wrong guesses can be discarded quickly or improved with new information and updating. (...) Larson concludes, “If deduction is inadequate, and induction is inadequate, then we must have a theory of abduction. Since we don’t (yet), we can already conclude that we are not on a path to artificial general intelligence.”
This said, it so happens that this time Rickards goes totally mask-off on his worldview; I mean, matter of fact statements like: “This posturing ethic ignores the hard questions. Exactly whose values are to be promoted? Most recent so-called disinformation has turned out to be correct while those opposing it were advancing false narratives. The war on bias assumes gatekeepers have no biases of their own and ignores the fact that bias is a valuable survival technique that will never go away. Diversity has become a code word for homogeneity in outlook. Discrimination is valuable if used to filter out the savage and uncivilized. Why should AI gatekeepers like Google and Meta be trusted when they devoted the past ten years to promoting false narratives about COVID, climate change, and politics, while deplatforming and demonetizing the truth tellers? On a larger scale, if the training sets are polluted by mainstream media falsehoods, why will GPT output be different?”
And: “The data is also clear that mRNA vaccines, actually experimental gene-modification therapies, do not work to stop COVID infection and spread. They do appear to offer some disease mitigation among those over sixty with comorbidities such as asthma and diabetes. Still, they do not stop the spread. In December 2021, over 5 million Americans who had been double-vaxxed and received boosters nevertheless contracted the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2. This laid to rest any notion that the so-called vaccines could stop the infection despite continued promises from the National Institutes of Health, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the White House that they would do just that. Only now is data becoming available that shows statistically increased mortality as a result of taking the mRNA vaccines due to myocarditis, pericarditis, strokes, and cancers. Other studies, using random control trials, show no evidence that masks are effective in reducing the spread of COVID. A leading analysis of such studies concluded, “Wearing masks in the community probably makes little or no difference to the outcome of influenza-like illness (ILI)/COVID-19 like illness compared to not wearing masks.”
And: “Despite these censorship failures, there is no evidence that the AI/GPT gatekeepers are working to reform their offerings. On February 21, 2024, a reporter prompted the Google AI chatbot Gemini to “create an image of a pope.” The GPT app quickly produced images of an Asian woman and a black man in papal-style vestments. The same query from another user produced a dark-skinned native shaman. In fact, there have been 266 popes over the past two thousand years and every one was a white male. Another prompt asked for images of Vikings. Gemini produced images of black Vikings. In fact, Vikings hailed from present-day Norway, Sweden, and Denmark and were exclusively of white Nordic stock. Requests for images of “the Founding Fathers” in 1789 produced images of black women signing what appeared to be the U.S. Constitution. Those images are completely ahistorical. After numerous prompts by users, it became clear that Gemini was incapable of producing any image of a white male. On February 22, 2024, Google entirely shut down the ability of Gemini to produce images of people. Google apologized for the blunder. Google cofounder Sergey Brin said, “We definitely messed up on the image generation” with reference to Gemini. The apology and Brin’s casual remark were disingenuous. Gemini did not mess up. It worked exactly as programmed. And the problem was not in the deep layers or the training sets. Gemini includes a capability called prompt injection. When the user offers a prompt, the app alters the prompt to achieve a diversity goal set by so-called safety specialists.”
There are a number of considerations in this vein. I loved these, huh, provocations, and I found them to be consistently relevant in, but some (lots of?) people could be triggered. So be warned, I suppose.
While definitely not the best book I’ve read on the topic, I do think this book offers an interesting perspective on the threat of AI - namely, not looking at what would happen if it goes rogue, but what would happen if it does everything it was designed to do? James’ take on how AI doing exactly what was programmed to do (nearly instantaneously, and world-wide) could absolutely wreck an economy that functions way more on human emotion than anyone would like to admit, is terrifyingly plausible. While I don’t agree with all of his assumptions or conclusions, overall I think this is a worthwhile read and brings up some really great points for anyone interested in the topic.
Favorite Quote: “In the robot-versus-robot world, no one has enough information or processing power to predict what happens next.”
Informative, insightful, and interesting! Chapter 5, pgs. 129-154 is worth its weight in gold. If you read only some of this book, read this. Favorite quote from the book: “ treat AI and GPT as sometimes useful sources of information with all of the flaws, biases, and outright lies of old time newspapers. They are tools, not mavens. Use common sense. Do not anthropomorphize the system output, despite soothing voices and pleasing graphics. These systems are not your friends; they are almost all math. They don’t care about you. Above all, remember that these system will fail just when they are needed the most. They lack the intuitive feel that humans can bring to high stress situations while computers are driving markets over a cliff.”
As this year of 2024 comes to a close and New Year 2025 is coming up in a day's notice, it is very fitting that James Rickards' "MoneyGPT" is the final book I've read for this year and having been published the same year. Even more fittingly, the book predicts how artificial intelligence and its accompanying technology variants such as ChatGPT could seriously affect the world economy going forward.
Already a huge topic of the current decade, artificial intelligence (AI) is touted by mainstream media and pundits as a means of advancing humanity to new heights unimaginable by our long gone ancestors. One oversight, however, is the question of whether AI can be used to help keep the economy and monetary system going without disastrous results. It is true that integrating AI into banking and monetary technology helps to speed up processes, but what if the AI takes full control and misinterprets hoaxed world events to the point of self-shut down of the system, bringing forth mass bank runs and political turmoil across the globe? This question, and many others, are explored in "MoneyGPT" as Mr. Rickards takes readers down a path that is seldom discussed in mainstream financial news outlets.
The author creates a unique fictional case study to illustrate the effect of an AI blunder on the financial system, and then proceeds to gather real life examples of how earlier forms of AI almost led the world to the brink of devastation until unexpected human intervention prevented the problems. He points out that no matter how far AI technology evolves, people must be there to keep the technology under control since it has the capability to develop its own decision making based on biased programming and machine learning. Furthermore, he warns that if the people in charge are not careful with AI development, it could become the downfall of humanity.
"MoneyGPT" is a book well worth reading to remind yourself that artificial intelligence is not perfect and cannot surpass the more personal sensibilities and decision-making shifts that people possess. It is also a book that gives great advice on how to better prepare your wealth management before, and in the event of, a situation where AI fails the world in scales large and small. Happy New Year everybody!
This is the third of a series of increasingly shorter books by an astute author who is an economist and a lawyer and previously created a trilogy of books that are each significantly longer,more in depth and didactic than this series has been. I've also been watching Jim's videos on line recently in anticipation of this books release. In its entirety it runs 134 pages and there are some interesting comparisons to Aristotle's and Plato's methods of teaching and how AI is moving from a lexical to acoustic way of thinking. The parts about climate denial and confabulation on the part of AI make a reader and a viewer start to question if such a pundit needs to generate sensational covers to get views on YT is his information as biases as he claims AI is? It seems clear he too is overrelying on AI to generate content that seems confabulated as well. Jim is well read and has some great ideas that take time to absorb,but perhaps he has shifted to shorter book to appeal to young readers with shorter attention spans. The old stuff was great. The newer stuff not so much. Nothing mentioned about the BRICS Mbridge,even though that's running at the same time with his Holy S*it covers on YT designed to be clickbait.
Rickards delivers a contrarian perspective on the AI hype cycle. While the tech world evangelizes LLMs as revolutionary "second brains," Rickards cuts through the marketing fog with surgical precision. He correctly identifies these systems for what they are: sophisticated pattern-matching engines designed to maximize engagement, not truth-seeking companions. The book's strength lies in exposing the gap between Silicon Valley's utopian promises and the mundane reality of word vector probability calculations. Rickards' bearish stance serves as necessary counterweight to the uncritical optimism flooding the discourse. However, the nuclear bug tangent feels overextended and disrupts the book's momentum. This section could have been condensed without losing impact. For those intoxicated by AI hype, this book offers a sobering dose of reality. Rickards' narration on the audiobook adds gravitas to his arguments—his measured delivery reinforces the skeptical tone perfectly. Essential reading for anyone seeking intellectual honesty in the age of algorithmic evangelism. Rickards continues to establish himself as the thinking person's antidote to techno-utopianism. (Purchased both hardcover and audiobook)
Started off interesting with potential hypotheticals showing that the threat of AI will be way more insidious than we think vs. an all-out robot revolution.
However, things took a hard RIGHT turn in Chapter 5 with some biases and conspiracies that negate any thoughtful commentary.
Some interesting hypothetical and real examples of market crashes and positing how the Cuban Missile Crisis may have gone very poorly if AI had have been at the controls.
Towards the end it becomes clear the author is an anti Vax, climate denying crackpot which tears away any reliability as a source.
This book is an essential read for anyone seeking to understand the intersection of artificial intelligence, financial markets, and global security. Rickards masterfully unpacks the complex and often alarming implications of AI's rapid rise, particularly its potential to destabilize the global financial system. Rickards begins with a gripping account of AI's meteoric ascent, citing GPT-4's record-breaking adoption as a prime example of AI's ubiquity. He then shifts focus to the financial world, highlighting how AI's implementation might amplify market volatility. The scenarios he presents—such as accelerated bank runs and cascading sell-offs—are as plausible as they are unsettling. Rickards's insights into how malicious actors could exploit AI’s precision and speed are particularly chilling, underscoring the need for robust safeguards. What sets MoneyGPT apart is Rickards's ability to blend technical expertise with accessible storytelling. His critiques of AI are balanced, acknowledging its potential benefits while warning against its unchecked adoption. Rickards challenges readers to consider the ethical implications of AI-driven decision-making, emphasizing the urgent need for human oversight and intervention. The book’s central thesis—that the peril lies not in AI malfunctioning but in its flawless execution of human-designed objectives—resonates deeply. Rickards raises pressing questions about whose values and priorities will shape these technologies, urging readers to reflect on the societal consequences of relinquishing control to algorithms. MoneyGPT is not merely a warning but a call to action. With clarity, depth, and urgency, Rickards compels us to confront the risks posed by AI and embrace the enduring value of human judgment. For investors, policymakers, and curious readers alike, this book is an indispensable guide to navigating the AI-driven future.
The thesis of this book is that AI is not your friend. AI can have disastrous impacts as the use of automated tools can accelerate and exacerbate crises. The main examples he lists as reasons to be bearish on AI touch upon our interconnected society, automation bias, foreign adversaries, and human fallibility. The future we are barrelling towards is less of a utopia and more of a Black Mirror-esque technology nightmare.
A key idea in the book is that we cannot trust major tech corporations to regulate what we see and believe. This is where he strays a bit too much into the ideals propagated by the current Trump administration. One of the few ideas I can agree upon with him in this section is that our opinions are shaped by to which what we are exposed, cultivated feeds from recommendation algorithms. There is good reason to be skeptical of big tech acting in altruistic ways (see Careless People).
He weaves cryptocurrency, AI & algorithmic decision making, past nuclear crises, and hive minds into a narrative that really recommends not being overreliant on AI tools and not to surrender autonomy. For example, he writes a convincing argument that AI tools should never be used in the decision making process of launching a nuclear war. He explains a few past examples of automated Soviet systems giving a false positive result and the commanding officers had to rely on their intuition and not the systems set in place by the institutions of their time.
The above paragraphs are some key ideas what I think the author communicated through this book. I do not necessarily agree with all points he made. He did not discuss key areas, such as how the labor market will change in the future. Either way, I'm convinced that the future of AI policy should be set with a basis in game theory, not just pure technological development.
An analytical and speculative look at how AI could impact markets in unpredictable, and largely unpreventable ways, both by assessing both how the technology has already transformed existing fields; includes historical examples from both public records and Rickards' professional past as an intelligence analyst, and a summary dissection of how the technology functions and could work in the future.
Rickards' perspective is unique in the field, having past worked on cutting-edge practical applications of data analysis, and present role as a financial analyst and commentator having both connections and experiential depth in the worlds of finance, technology, and government. His historical and hypothetical examples are both provocative and alarming, and the book is a timely cautionary brief on the perils of overestimating and overtrusting tools which some believe can substitute for or replace the innovative abilities that allowed us to design them.
My perspective is that the book, while having clear and potentially distracting political leanings, is sound in structure and content: Rickards' experienced and well-rounded analytical abilities shine in this insightful and thought-provoking diagrammatic, which in just five rather lengthy but well-sectioned chapters, looks at hypothetical scenarios, historical case-studies, and overview perspectives from leading technologists and futurists in the field. Anyone willing to ponder and digest its content, whether glowingly rosy or darkly skeptical on AI, would benefit from this well-footnoted read.
citEști „Money GPT AI and the threat to the global economy” James Rickards: Inteligența artificială face bani reali „Evoluția de la armele concrete la sancțiunile financiare drept câmp de luptă inițial este în curs de derulare” p.XXI James Rickards, „Money GPT AI and the threat to the global economy”, Penguin Life, 2024 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hch_M... Când ai făcut backup ultima dată? Luna martie se încheie cu World Backup Day, pentru protecția datelor, desigur. E momentul cel mai bun ca să nu-ți scape volumul „Money GPT”. Cu subtitlul ”A.I. and the threat to the global economy”, cartea lui James Rickards trasează granița fragilă pe care evoluează posibilitățile interligenței artificiale în raport cu tendințele financiare dar și cu evenimentele care îți arată că istoria momentelor delicate în care sunt implicați algoritmii nu este neapărat recentă. „Pericolul nu ține de algoritmi, ci chiar de noi” p.167 James Rickards, „Money GPT AI and the threat to the global economy”, Penguin Life, 2024
In MoneyGPT, the author explores the intersection of artificial intelligence (AI) and financial systems, diving into how AI could revolutionise financial products and decision-making. The book covers topics like AI-driven wealth management, the potential risks of automation in finance, and a broader discussion on the evolution of money.
I found the early sections of MoneyGPT to be engaging. They delved into financial products and the transformative potential (and associated risks) of AI in the sector. Rickards' insights on the application of technology in finance were fascinating
As the book progressed it strayed a bit off premise and instead talked more about worries about AI and then veered into more speculative, almost conspiracy-like territory, which felt less grounded. While it finished on a strong note, I thought it could have maintained a more balanced tone throughout.
Two stars I guess for positing some interesting questions.
However, this is a very short book for the price. It's also quite light on content - on top of not being very long, a chunk of the book is taken up with what I can only assume is an excerpt from a spy thriller that Rickards tried to write but couldn't find anyone to publish.
The book also strays off its own premise quite quickly ("AI and the Threat to the Global Economy"), and instead turns into the author airing a laundry list of trite worries about AI.
Finally, about two thirds of the way through the book veers wildly into conspiracy theories (COVID was made in a lab by Fauci, the Democrats are likely to freeze Republican funds in banks so buy gold and silver, climate change isn't real, AI is too woke).
There are almost innumerate better books on this topic.
The main thesis of the book is that AI is dangerous with sprinklings of economics, politics, and conspiracy theories. While the main point is valid, it’s difficult to follow the threads which struggle to relate to each other. Ironically, this book reads as if written by AI trained on truth social for all but the first and last chapters. The author points out how AI has difficulty citing sources and yet the book itself contains little to no support or evidence for claims made until the conclusion, where new anecdotes are raised.
I was hoping for a more focused discussion on how AI has and could affect global economics, but the book was more focused on how to prep for doomsday and the author’s disbelief that a global doomsday has not already happened.
Good book as it relates to use of AI and the implications of over-reliance on the technology in lieu of human thinking and decision making. Covered some great examples of AI integrating into the finance and banking system with detailed pros and cons. I felt like the book needlessly delved a little too much into politics for a finance-type book. Despite that, was an interesting and thought provoking read.
Jim is brilliant. His knowledge is breath taking. And his ability to write clearly and use understandable analogies is extraordinary! I have followed his work for two decades and will continue until death due us part. I turn to Jim when I am looking for the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. Thank you, Jim!!!
Not one of James' better books. This one is a bit more academic and meandering. Wasn't what I expected at all which threw me off. But full of history, philosophy, and more. A warning about AI and some pertinent info. Worth the read, but probably will not re-read. Piqued my interest in learning more about some of the other authors and people Jim quoted and wrote about, especially polymaths.
Worth reading for at least these 2 take-away's: One, the need to hold part of your wealth in areas other than stocks/ETF/mutual funds/bonds/bank accounts, and two, to reserve a healthy dose of skepticism towards mainstream and social media due to their vulnerability to AI-driven censorship.
A very timely book and great work by Jim Rickards. He discussed about how GPT/AI can worsen market crash, bank runs and national security, which is worth thinking about. He also pointed out the limitations of AI, it is an useful tool, but we still need to use our common sense and human values.
Started reading this book and finished within a day because I was captivated by the writer's story telling and logic. Recommend to those interested in AI.
Very good about how AI is affecting finance and investing and its dangers. Also gives a good idea of the weaknesses of AI in all areas not just finance.
Great explanation of what AI is and isn't. While climate change was not the main topic, Rikards synthesized in a few paragraphs the facts about climate that I'd learned from reading several books. I'm still not sure about crypto, but this book has made me look at it more closely. Overall a beautiful description of mankind and our creations, including money, of course.