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The Delphi Method in Quantitative Research

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A graduate-level illustrated introduction to and tutorial the Delphi method, discussing quantitative applications and explaining fuzzy math approaches to Delphi networks.

Why we think it's important: The Delphi method has been used primarily as a qualitative approach in the social sciences. While the previous edition highlighted many of thw quantitative uses of Delphi, the 2014 edition provides an illustrated tutorial on its applied mathematics, giving students the basis for undertaking their own quantitative Delphi analyses.

New in the 2014 edition:

Now includes an extended illustrated tutorial on how to use fuzzy mathematics to analyze Delphi networks.
Covers measures of central tendency, agreement network analysis, anc mean network potency.
Nearly double the length of the previous edition with expanded discussion throughout.

Table of Contents
Overview 5
Key Concepts and Terms 6
Appropriateness 6
Rounds 6
Forecasts vs. reasons 6
Legitimation and Selection of Experts 6
Anonymity 7
Examples of Delphi in quantitative research 8
Defining constructs 8
Developing and selecting indicators 8
Creating a multidimensional instrument 9
Creating a typological framework 10
Coding 10
Establishing the construct validity of factor weightings 11
Integrating factor eigenvalues and Delphi weights for purposes of optimal scoring for selection among alternatives 11
Adjusting statistical forecasts 12
Using fuzzy mathematics in Delphi research 13
Overview 13
Example 14
Triangular fuzzy numbers (TFN) 16
Distances 17
Overview 17
The geometric method 17
The vertex method 18
Analysis 20
Overview 20
Central tendency 20
Agreement network 21
Mean network potency 25
Project planning networks 25
Assumptions 27
Representative selection of experts 27
Expert knowledge 27
Expert Motivation 27
Bias toward the mean 27
Avoidance of researcher bias 28
Intermediate level of predictability 28
Frequently Asked Questions 28
How many experts should serve on a Delphi panel? 28
How are experts selected? 29
How many rounds should there be in a Delphi process? 29
How long does the Delphi process take? 30
What if no consensus is reached? 30
What is e-Delphi? 31
Is the Delphi administrator always a neutral facilitator? 32
Bibliography 32
Pagecount 38

42 pages, Kindle Edition

First published November 2, 2013

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About the author

G. David Garson

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