This is an outstanding book that is well-researched and tells a great story. I have rarely enjoyed a history/political science book so much, especially because it is about economics. I was actually embarrassed to tell friends what I was reading and how much I was enjoying it. It was written before Trump returned to power, so it doesn't include his capricious use of tariffs. I would love to see what Fishman thinks about that. I highly recommend this book for anyone who wants to understand the role of the United States in the world and the power it can wield.
The book looks at how the United States has used economic tools—particularly sanctions and financial dominance- as weapons to achieve its ends. The main theme is that chokepoints are essential but vulnerable places for transportation. Cutting them off means cutting off your enemies' vital supply lines. These have normally been thought of as physical, like the Bosphorus Straits, but in the last few decades have included chokepoints in the global economic system, most of which the United States now controls. The United States started small in both the aggressiveness of sanctions and the targets of them but eventually looked at bigger targets and more complex and damaging sanctions. It did this with or without consensus from the international community, but the power of its controls over the chokepoints forced most other countries to go along with it. However, weaponizing this control has and will cause other countries, even allies of the United States, to look for ways around those choke points to end American dominance. In essence, using the weapon will make it less effective in the future and also threaten the overall global economy. In addition, it has shown the way for other countries to use their own chokepoints to their own advantage, specifically China and rare earth minerals.
He finishes by arguing that because economic warfare is now so common, the USG should have a permanent apparatus to plan for it, as it does for military warfare. The US has always been afraid of ripple effects on the world economy, which would affect the US economy, so it has generally been conservative in how it used its economic weapons. Consistent study and preparation would allow these tools to be use more effectively.
He also suggests that economic warfare will ultimately undermine and perhaps destroy the globally interdependent economy. Economic chokepoints will probably be weakened as countries and companies look for alternatives that keep power out of a single entities hand. Alternatively, it is possible that economic rivalry/warfare will eventually move into military warfare.
Here are my takes on the the book:
It is divided into four major events that caused the US to enact increasingly complicated sanctions, along with an introduction and conclusion. The events are: Iran and nukes, Russia subverting Donbas, China and 5G technology, Russia invading Ukraine. It offers a lot of detail on the development of each, including the decision-making processes in the White House and the diplomacy associated with it.
Part One: Building the Chokepoints
This is largely the development of economic warfare, beginning after World War I, and the establishment of American economics dominance after WWII. The global trading system was designed and developed by the United States and, as a result, put the United States at the center of it, with control of the economic chokepoints. This included the dominance of the U.S. dollar, the establishment of financial institutions, originally around Bretton Woods, but later around access to SWIFT and access to the dollar as an exchange currency.
Economic sanctions against Saddam Hussein after the Gulf War were effective in that it degraded his ability to produce WMDs, but it didn't significantly change his behavior. And it was expensive because it required US warships to actively search ships coming and going from Iraq. The Clinton Administration recognized that it had some powerful economic tools to use, but was hesitant to use them because it would make people wary of the US-centered global economic system. After 9-11, the Bush Administration started trying to stop Al-Queda's money transfers and was successful to some extent. Post-9-11 policy changes also transferred a lot of the Treasury Department's law enforcement duties to DHS, so Treasury had relatively little to do, until Bush wanted to put pressure on North Korea. They cut off a Chinese bank that was laundering money for the Kim regime from SWIFT, which cut of North Korea from the global economic system and, more importantly, showed the power the United States had on economic chokepoints. Future sanctions wouldn't need ships or the military, just US say-so.
Part Two: Iran and the Bomb
US Sanctions on Iran go back to the 1979 Hostage Crisis and basically cut off trade between the United States and Iran. As Iran started moving towards making nuclear weapons in the Bush Administration, it was clear that the US should to do something more, but didn't have the international cooperation it needed. Bush said that "we have sanctioned ourselves out of influence with Iran", suggesting that the United States had no more cards to play. But one of his officials, Stuart Levy, sought to find other ways to pressure Iran with new types of sanctions, beginning a new period of economic warfare.
These new weapons were really put to use in the Obama administration, helped by Obama's success in rallying Europeans and others around the world to further isolate Iran economically, aiming to bring it to the negotiating table. That was possible because of several Iranian provocations. This included a planned assassination of the Saudi ambassador in Washington and a very worrying speech by Iranian president Mahmoud Amadinejad at the UN. Pushed by Congress to get tougher, including amendments to appropriations bills that required increase sanctions, the Obama Administration, made possible by a Bush-holdover in Treasury, got creative in imposing secondary sanctions, which penalized companies that did business with Iran. Because access to the US market and financial system was much more valuable than anything Iran could offer, this worked well, but caused a lot of ill-will among European allies because it hearkened back to the Bush-era "you're with us or against us" diplomacy. To make that worse, Europeans disregarded American intelligence on Iran's nuclear program because of the huge miss on WMDs in Iraq. Ultimately, by 2013, Obama's sanctions team came to the consensus that it couldn't do much else and should try to use existing pressure to make a deal. The deal that had a few problems. It was hated by Iran-hawks in the Senate and by Israel's PM Benjamin Netanyahu. It didn't permanently end Iran's nuclear weapons program. It was actually quite difficult to get banks to work with Tehran again after working so hard to scare them into giving up that business. Nevertheless, sanctions worked where military force did not, even if imperfectly. This marked a significant moment because sanctions were the force behind getting a foreign government to change its behavior.
Part Three: Russia’s Imperial Land Grab
Following the Maidan Revolution in Ukraine, Russia used thinly veiled operatives, pretending to be independent of the Kremlin, to foment rebellion in several Ukrainian provinces with a majority of Russian speakers. Obama wanted to give Russia a reason to not expand the war, which meant hitting him where it hurt. The problem was that Russia's economy was much bigger than Iran's and Russia supplied Europe with a lot of oil and gas. There was fear that widespread sanctions, like those used on Iran, would send the global economy into a tailspin. Obama was naturally cautious and wanted to work in lockstep with European allies who were more vulnerable to effects of Russian sanctions. Obama's team came up with sanctioning individuals close to put and also cutting of key Russian economic institutions from western capital markets, hoping that it would be a slow burn that would put Putin under pressure without creating volatility in world markets. It prevented recapitalization in Russia and, coupled with falling oil prices, created a crisis for Putin, but not a decisive one. And it didn't change the situation in Donbas. However, Fishman argues that Obama didn't go for the kill, which allowed Russia to rebuild its economy to make it "sanction proof".
Part Four: China’s Bid for Technological Mastery
The story that China was stealing American technology is not new, nor is the story that it has many non-tariff barriers to trade that make it very difficult for foreign companies to get into the Chinese market. Presidents from Clinton to Obama tried to get China to open up as it integrated into the global trading system, but they never put significant pressure on China to force its hand. Obama feared that China was already integrated into the world economy so much that sanctions on it would have massive ripples across the world. Trump changed that for two reasons. First, although Trump spoke most often about the trade deficit with China, the US use of economic warfare against China was more about technology. The start came when a Chinese company, ZTE, was caught selling US technology to Iran, in spite of US sanctions. The Commerce Department put ZTE on "Entities List" of companies and individuals that are known to be acting against US national interests. This meant that ZTE couldn't get access to US technology, which of a technology company was essentially a death sentence. For some reason, Trump withdrew this sentence as a favor to Xi Jinping so ZTE survived.
The stakes jumped up with another Chinese company, Huawei, which produced "5G" technology and sold it around the world. The USG found that Huawei had built a backdoor into the system that could potentially give China a huge weapon in any conflict. It banned Huawei technology from being used in the US, but US allies, particularly Britain, were using Huawei to build their own infrastructure. The Trump administration couldn't convince those countries to drop Huawei because it had the best equipment at the best price, partially because of subsidies from the Chinese govt. The US felt the need to raise the stakes and found a chokepoint in US technology. While Huawei was an industry leader, a lot of its products relied on US technology, so cutting off any US technology from being sold to Huawei was a major blow to the company and suggested that it was not a reliable partner. As a result, most US friendly governments and companies stopped using Huawei.
There are a few differences in using economic weapons against China. First, the size of China's economy gave it a lot more leverage than other targets. It also made it difficult to attack China directly because of the codependence between the two countries. Second, the United States didn't use its powers of dominating economic commerce and banking. Instead, it used its dominance in technology as a weapon to freeze China, and specifically Huawei, out. Third, earlier sanctions against Russia and Iran were meant to force those countries to change their behavior. Trump envisioned these new sanctions as permanent, which meant he wasn't looking for a deal with China. This was restructuring the world trade system and decoupling United States from China. It is possible that Trump thought the world would break into two blocs, but there was a danger that the EU would not join the US and would form a third bloc.
Part Five: Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
Fishman provides an in-depth look at the escalation of economic warfare following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Unlike previous economic warfare, the US had months to prep for this one because strong intelligence gave early notice of Putin's invasion of Ukraine. The Biden Administration had time to craft sanctions that would hurt Russia without severely damaging the world economy. The problem was that heavy sanctions were meant to deter Russia from invading, but saying what those sanctions were going to be would severely limit their effectiveness. Sanctioning the Russian Central Bank was unheard of, so Russia didn't prep for it, leaving hundreds of billions of dollars in reserves outside the country. This was devastating to Russia's economy but had the US threatened it in advance to scare Russia, Russia would have moved its reserves back under its own control. The US also cut Russia off from SWIFT, which basically cut Russia off from international banking.
Another problem was oil and gas. They made up about half of Russia's exports, so sanctioning that would severely hurt the Russian economy, but would also hurt the world economy by driving up gas prices. As long as Russia could continue to sell these, sanctions would be limited in their effect. There was also the problem of getting other countries to comply with US and EU sanctions, especially China. An attempt at the solution was to allow Russia to sell oil to the world economy, but to sanction any company that insured Russian oil shipments where the price was over $60 a barrel. This would allow oil to stay on the world markets without driving the price up and still limiting Russia's oil income. Surprisingly, this worked in so far as it hurt the Russian economy. But it didn't change Russian behavior. So, again, the west settled for degrading Russia's war-making ability by hurting its economy long term.
Part Six: The World Economic Rupture
The final part assesses the long-term implications of economic warfare on global trade, finance, and diplomacy. Fishman argues that economic sanctions have limited effectiveness because they take a long time for the effects to show. That makes it a poor deterrent. He also argues that using these chokepoints undermines their effectiveness and the global economy in general. No one wants to be at the mercy of the whims of the White House. On the other hand, China already uses access to its markets as a weapon (Australia for asking for an inquiry into the origins of Covid-19, Lithuania for allowing Taiwan to open an interest section in Vilnius), so many countries see that at least the United States don't use them for minor disagreements. (The book was written before Trump returned to the White House and got tariff happy, so Fishman didn't include America at its most capricious.) He suggests that for sanctions to work, they would need to be used in advance of a conflict, as the US has begun doing to China, to limit the effectiveness of a potential hostile act, such as invading Taiwan.