What other finance book references South Park, the Wu-Tang Clan and the price of transsexual prostitutes in Catholic countries? None, I'm guessing.
Here are some quotes that jumped out at me:
[T]he money the government uses to buy back the debt is newly created electronic money. It’s money that simply didn’t exist before. It’s like typing 100,000 at a keyboard and magically having $100,000 added to your bank account. Then you use that newly created money to pay off your debts. That’s QE. As for QE2, well, that’s just the second lot of QE, put into place because the first one didn’t have enough of a stimulus effect on the economy.
Some of the people who speak money do genuinely not give a shit about anything other than money.
Most hedge funds fail: 90 percent of all the hedge funds that have ever existed have closed or gone broke.
The chaotic lack of consensus [on economics] arises because economics is “the study of mankind in the ordinary business of life.” When is anyone going to reach any final verdicts about that?
Western economies did not grow to dominance by pursuing a neoliberal, free-market model: during the years of their growth, every economy in the Western world pursued policies that were to various degrees protectionist. The United States, now such a strident advocate of free markets for its own exports, was during the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries the most protectionist economy in the industrialized world.
[Quoting Charles Kindleberger:] [T]he economist with only one model, which he or she applies to all situations, is wrong much of the time.
Basis point: One hundredth of a percentage point... Referring to basis points is one of the quickest and easiest ways of pretending to know what you’re talking about when it comes to money.
[W]hen there were two beers, a third of people chose the cheaper; adding an even cheaper beer made the share of that beer go up, because it was now in the middle of three prices; adding an even more expensive beer at the top, and dropping the cheapest beer, made the share of the new beer in the middle (which had previously been the most expensive) go up from two-thirds to 90 percent.
Benford’s law: A seriously cool but quite strange law of math. It says that, in many types of random data, the number 1 is the most frequently occurring number, cropping up as much as 30 percent of the time. This is a surprisingly useful finding that is often employed to detect phoney figures in areas such as accounting and science. The math is immensely complicated, and I would love to give a full explanation of it here, but unfortunately I have to rush off now because I’ve just remembered I’ve got a thing.
Black Swan: A term coined by the philosopher-investor Naseem Nicholas Taleb for an event so rare it doesn’t fit in normal models of statistical probability... An example would be Earth being hit by an asteroid big enough to cause global disaster, something NASA says happens every 500,000 years or so. That puts the odds of its happening in a typical 80-year life at one in 6,250 — which is uncomfortably high. It’s very hard to know how to think about this fact.
Ordinary members of the public hear much more about the equity market—the “stock market” — in the news and general chatter, but the bond market is much bigger and more important, in global financial terms.
“Exclusive” is bullshit, not least because it is used mostly about places that are open to the public, like restaurants and hotels... There is an enormous amount of bullshit in the world of money.
[T]he most recent and glaring example of nonsense was in the run-up to the credit crunch, in which broad sectors of banks and investors convinced themselves that they had invented a new category of financial instrument that guaranteed high rates of return with no risk. Since it is a fundamental axiom of investment that risk is correlated with return—that you can’t make higher rates of return without taking on higher levels of risk—this is like claiming to have invented an antigravity device, or a perpetual motion machine.
As one wit has said, search makes 110 percent of Google’s profits—all its money, and then the 10 percent that it loses paying for all the other stuff. That advertising model reaches deep down into the core of Google’s being and is starting to taint its search function, so that it brings you not necessarily the thing you most need to look for, but the link that will make it most money if you click on it.
[A] company will often prefer to buy back shares when it believes those shares are undervalued—which can shade very close to a form of insider dealing, profiting the insiders who know the truth.
Politicians like to talk about competitiveness because it sounds less painful than “doing more work for less money with fewer employment rights,” even though that in practice is what it tends to mean.
My favorite example of the power of compound interest concerns the Native Americans who sold Manhattan to Peter Minuit in 1626 for some beads and trinkets worth about $26. A grievous rip-off, obviously. But if the Native Americans had been in a position to invest the $26 at 8 percent interest—historically a by no means unprecedented rate—and had left the investment to compound annually, it would by now be worth a useful $282 trillion, far more than enough to buy the whole place back.
[W]hen a company or government talks about “cutting costs,” what it really means is “sacking people.”
[I]t’s interesting just how much the subject of money, economics, business strategy, and so on features in rap music: I don’t think there’s ever been a form of music, anywhere in the world, with such a focus on money (and I don’t just mean modern Western popular music; I mean all music).
[O]ne of the most brilliant things the financial services industry ever did was to take the word “debt,” which people were brought up to consider a bad thing that you want to avoid, and to rename it as “credit,” which sounds like a good thing that you want more of. This is a major example of reversification at work.
dead cat bounce: An apparent but illusory recovery in a falling market. It’s the same kind of bounce a dead cat would give if you chucked it out a window: not a very big one. If you’re wondering who on earth would be so sick as to come up with a metaphor like that, greetings, and welcome to the world of money.
deadweight costs: The things that are indirect consequences of tax. If you raise tax on business, you raise more money from the businesses that are paying tax; but the increased rates of tax will cause some other firms to go broke and therefore stop paying tax altogether. That is a deadweight cost of the tax rise. A government will notice the tax it receives from the tax rise, but may not pay enough attention to the tax it is no longer receiving from the firms that have gone under. Deadweight costs are difficult to measure because to do so involves an attempt to put a price on this missing economic activity. Advocates of lower taxes argue that governments consistently understate the impact of deadweight costs.
In general, financial markets are keen to make default sound like the end of life as we know it, though the fact is that countries do default—Argentina in 2001, Iceland in 2008—and life went on.
[G]overnments quite like inflation, because it reduces the value of their outstanding debts.
Although much of the coverage of the stock market focuses on how the price of shares goes up and down, history shows that about half the value of stocks has always come from the dividends they pay.
The USA, amazingly to non-Americans, has no statutory vacation entitlement. That, right there, is the single biggest argument for trade unions, since it is thanks to unions that ordinary citizens in other countries got these rights.
[I]n a normal life span, more than three-quarters of your adult waking hours are spent not working.
There has never been a war between two countries that trade freely with each other.
People often speak of Glass-Steagall as a magic formula for making banks safe, but it’s worth emphasizing that the distinction between the two kinds of banking had been steadily eroded to the point where it was barely functioning. Also, many banks that did not breach the line between retail and investment banking went broke, and had to be bailed out.
The total GDP of the world... is... $71.83 trillion. This is according to the CIA, so it must be true... The world’s total burden of debt, government and personal and corporate all added together, is 313 percent, or $223.3 trillion. That means our planet has the equivalent of a mortgage three times its income.
It’s been estimated that about 12 percent of the world’s gold is in use in electronics. (The other place where it has a practical use is in Vietnam, where all property purchases are made in gold.)
One of the things I’ve been doing since I began taking an interest in the world of money is ask people involved in that world what they do with their own money. My question in essence is whether they do the things we civilians are advised to do, in respect of pensions and equity investments and the like. I reckon I’ve asked forty or so finance professionals this, and I haven’t yet met a single one who follows the advice given to civilians.
The alarming thing about high-frequency trading is that nobody really understands it.
hollowing out: An important phenomenon in the modern world. A private equity guy once told me how it’s done: “You get some capital together and buy a company in Germany that makes machine parts. Then you close the factory and move the manufacturing to China, where the quality control maybe isn’t as good but it costs a tenth as much to make, and because you still own the brand and control the distribution network, none of your customers will notice.”
immigration: A hotly contested issue in politics, but not so much in economics. The birthrate in the developed world, especially Europe, is too low... Since the next generation of taxpayers are not being born, they will have to be imported: that is why the Western world needs high and sustained levels of immigration... The long-term benefits of immigration are general; the short-term costs are local. It should not be beyond the competence of governments to address that discrepancy.
insurance: A great idea—but it is distressing how often, in its real-life manifestations, it turns out to be a scam dependent on the customer’s not having read the small print.
I haven’t seen a single even halfway convincing argument that universal banks [mixing retail with investment banking] convey any benefit at all to the general public.
Jáchymov: I bet you’ve indirectly referred to this place in the Czech Republic at some point in the last week; if you’re interested in money you will certainly have used it at some point in the last day, maybe even in the last hour. How so? Can you guess? Give up? Well, the Bohemian town of Jáchymov is known in German as Joachimsthal—does that help? It was the site of a famous silver mine, a town that grew tenfold in population between 1516 to 1526 as it became the center of a boom based on the manufacture of a silver coin known as Joachimsthaler. It in time became known as thaler, or taler. The coins were a standard size and form of currency throughout much of Europe for four hundred years, and it’s from this ubiquity that we get the word “dollar”—so every time a dollar is mentioned, someone is unknowingly citing this otherwise obscure spot in rural Bohemia.
[R]ichness is a relationship between two people.
[P]eople would rather earn $60,000 in a place where average earnings are $40,000 than earn $80,000 where the average is $100,000.
Another microeconomic study that I liked concerned the rates charged by transsexual prostitutes in the middle of their sexual transformation, who in some countries charge less than straightforwardly female prostitutes and in other countries charge more. The conclusion reached was that they charge more in Catholic countries. At least, that’s what I think it said, but I can’t find the reference anywhere so now I’m wondering if I imagined it.
Bailing out the banks... creates a classic form of moral hazard, because it exempts those banks from the consequences of their mistakes.
Here is my favorite money-related onion fact: onions are so important in India that the government has twice fallen, in 1980 and 1998, because of surges in their price.
Perhaps the most vivid example of the resource curse in the modern world is the Congo, which is in resource (especially mineral resource) terms one of the richest countries in the world, and where 5.4 million people have died in conflict since 1998.
rich lists: Such lists are good fun, but they shouldn’t be taken too seriously. A journalist at the Financial Times once told me, “We’d love to do one and we often talk about it, but the problem is you just can’t stand it up.” That’s a journalist’s way of saying that the facts and numbers are impossible to verify.
It’s interesting that the richest monarch in the world, who in 2011 (the last time Forbes did a rich-monarch list) was King Bhumbibol of Thailand at $30 billion, is hovering only at around the number 10 mark in the broader global rich list.
Government rhetoric is consistenly pro-saver; government policy is consistently anti-saver.
72: A useful number because you can use it to calculate how long it takes for the power of compound interest to double your money. For any given rate of interest, just divide it into 72, and that’s how long it takes: 6 percent, say, will double your money in twelve years.
Shadow banking, or the shadow banking system, is plenty of people’s candidate for the next big thing to blow up in the global financial system... The best, in the sense of most institutionally trustworthy, estimate I’ve seen of the current size of the [shadow banking] system is that given by the Bank of England’s Financial Stability Board in late 2012. That put the total size of the shadow system at $67 trillion. Not a reassuring figure: that’s about the same size as the total GDP of planet Earth. Some of the people who get points for being publicly worried about the financial system in the run-up to the credit crunch now have shadow banking at the top of their list of concerns.
The theory of shareholder value [making money only for shareholders] has failed even on its own terms, because since it became popular in the late sixties the rate of return on assets and on invested capital has fallen by 75 percent. A countervailing idea of corporations is that they have a life and a character of their own and that the best of them make money by serving customers; customers should come first, rather than shareholders; this idea has gained force as companies that have followed it, such as Apple and Amazon, have had success.
Student loans were the only kind of lending to increase during the Great Recession, and have overtaken credit card debt and car and home loans to become the biggest source of personal debt apart from mortgages.
[T]he perception that Facebook is hygienic is sustained by tens of thousands of hours of badly paid labor on the part of people in the developing world who work for companies hired to scan for offensive images and who are, according to the one Moroccan man who went on the record to complain about it, paid a dollar an hour for doing so. That’s a perfect example of surplus value: huge amounts of poorly paid menial work creating the hygienic image of a company that at the time of writing has a market capitalization of $146 billion.
When two companies merge, the first thing that analysts look at when evaluating the deal is how many jobs have been lost: the higher the number, the better.
It’s one of the deepest and most important secrets of [the financial services industry] that, as old pros say, “You make more money by selling advice than you do by following it.”
On 29 February 2012, the World Bank announced that the proportion of the planet’s population living in absolute poverty—on less than $1.25 a day—had halved from 1990 to 2010. That rate of poverty reduction, driven by economic growth across the world from China to Ghana, is unprecedented in global history.
The MDGs [Millenium Development Goals] have seen 700 million people move out of absolute poverty. In 1990, 47 percent of the population of the developing world was below this threshold, a number that by 2010 had fallen to 22 percent. The proportion of the developing world’s population living in hunger fell from 23.2 percent to 14.9 percent. That still leaves 870 million hungry people, which, on a planet with the resources to feed all of them, is 870 million more than there should be.
[T]he first global leader to mention climate change in a speech was Margaret Thatcher, who in 1989 said in an address to the UN, “We are seeing a vast increase in the amount of carbon dioxide reaching the atmosphere. . . . The result is that change in future is likely to be more fundamental and more widespread than anything we have known hitherto.” ... Thatcher was and remains the only British prime minister to have had a degree in science. She saw the question as a scientific one rather than an issue of ideology. Conversely, since globalization and trade are the single biggest factors raising GDP in the developing world, we might expect the left to be in favor of them, and the right, which historically has had a strong protectionist streak, to be against. But it didn’t work out that way: climate change is owned by the left, globalization by the right.
[T]he particularities of Chinese Communist Party–mandated capitalism are so odd that nobody on the political right is willing to claim China’s progress as evidence for the virtues of free markets. So credit for the biggest economic achievement in the history of the world is in effect lying unclaimed on the table, like a weirdly toxic form of poker winnings.
The right is embarrassed by the fact that the economic growth that it would normally boast about has taken place mainly in a communist country.
If 16,438 children died today in a single disaster, it would dominate every news media outlet in the world for weeks. The fact that they aren’t dying isn’t news.
In the next decade, 1.2 billion young people are going to enter the labor market, worldwide... Projections at the moment are that growth in the labor market and retirement of the working population will open up 300 million new jobs over that same period. That’s a huge gap, 1.2 billion workers chasing 300 million jobs.
When I was growing up in Hong Kong, top-rate tax in the UK was over 90 percent, whereas top-rate tax in Hong Kong was 15 percent, and there was no mass exodus of the rich then, just as there wouldn’t be one now.
In Denmark, a judge earns more than a cleaner: two and a half times more. How does that work out for them? The Danes report the highest level of life satisfaction of anyone in the world.
Some readers may be disappointed that I am not advocating more-explicit alternatives to capitalism. I might well advocate one if I could see one that seemed to be working. The candidate that was touted more than once in the first decade of this century was the socialist countries of Latin America, but the problem with that as a model for elsewhere is that all those countries were benefiting from gigantic commodity booms, especially in the case of Venezuela and its oil.
When people say, “It can’t go on like this,” what usually happens is that it does go on like that, more extendedly and more painfully than anyone could possibly imagine; it happens in relationships, in jobs, in entire countries. It goes way, way past the point of bearability. And then things suddenly and abruptly change. I think that’s where we are today.