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The Twilight Before the Storm: From the Fractured 1930s to Today's Crisis Culture
THE TWILIGHT BEFORE THE STORM EXAMINES WHAT IS ARGUABLY THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE FACING HOW CAN WE AVOID A WORLD ON FIRE?
The next decade promises to be the most critical period in the transition from today’s capitalism toward a yet-to-be defined alternative system. Viktor Shvets, global strategist, Will it be capitalism or communism, feudalism or despotism? The fusion of the disruptive Information Age and deep Financialization (aggravated by generational change and climate) is destabilizing every aspect of our lives—from the role and functioning of labor and capital to political systems, from the private sphere to morality, from education to entertainment.
The world faced similar disorientation in the 1930s. At this time the choice was not between freedom or slavery, but how much freedom needed to be sacrificed to avoid the worst outcomes. There were three choices on the communism, fascism, or constrained democracy. With free market liberalism discredited, the question was not whether to plan economies and societies, but how far state’s control should spread, and how much free space should be left for the private sector and markets.
Today, we are in a place not so different, with the “neo” version of the free-market liberalism once again discredited, causing 1930s-style fractures. With the new consensus on the “right” model not yet formed, alternatives are proliferating. Tensions are on the rise. Are we bound to relive a world on fire of the 1940s, or transit toward a more placid but constrained 1950s-60s? The Twilight Before the Storm examines how and where conflicts might arise—from cold and hot to civil and hungry wars—and suggests policies that might lower tensions and defang extremes. We have options. Will we exercise them in time to avoid the worst? How will future generations judge us?
The next decade promises to be the most critical period in the transition from today’s capitalism toward a yet-to-be defined alternative system. Viktor Shvets, global strategist, Will it be capitalism or communism, feudalism or despotism? The fusion of the disruptive Information Age and deep Financialization (aggravated by generational change and climate) is destabilizing every aspect of our lives—from the role and functioning of labor and capital to political systems, from the private sphere to morality, from education to entertainment.
The world faced similar disorientation in the 1930s. At this time the choice was not between freedom or slavery, but how much freedom needed to be sacrificed to avoid the worst outcomes. There were three choices on the communism, fascism, or constrained democracy. With free market liberalism discredited, the question was not whether to plan economies and societies, but how far state’s control should spread, and how much free space should be left for the private sector and markets.
Today, we are in a place not so different, with the “neo” version of the free-market liberalism once again discredited, causing 1930s-style fractures. With the new consensus on the “right” model not yet formed, alternatives are proliferating. Tensions are on the rise. Are we bound to relive a world on fire of the 1940s, or transit toward a more placid but constrained 1950s-60s? The Twilight Before the Storm examines how and where conflicts might arise—from cold and hot to civil and hungry wars—and suggests policies that might lower tensions and defang extremes. We have options. Will we exercise them in time to avoid the worst? How will future generations judge us?
- GenresHistory
356 pages, Paperback
Published August 10, 2024
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Displaying 1 - 7 of 7 reviews
July 30, 2026
A few years ago, when academics, economists and geo-political analysts started pointing to the eerie resonances between the slow building cauldron of the 1930s and the tumultous world we are living in today, I thought they were being alarmist. Now, I'm not so sure.
The sense of institutions in a slow-motion meltdown and the loss of public faith in capitalism is now hard to ignore. The rise of Trump and other authoritarian populists is but a symptom of the catastrophic failure of the neo-liberal economic model of the past near 50 years.
In this brilliant, acutely observed book, Viktor Shvets - a New York-based global strategist with Australian investment bank Macquarie Capital - analyses this world using the meterological metaphor of the 'Fujiwara Effect', which refers to what happens when overlapping cyclones collide.
In our current situation, the 'cyclones' are the combined storms of the breakdown of the neoliberal order, deep financialisation and a highly disruptive information age - alongside growing social polarisation, environmental degradation and the significant weakening of the institutions of state.
In many countries, the once moderate middle class is collapsing as people lurch for extremes, disenchanted by widening inequities wrought by toxic free market capitalism. Shvets says whether this works itself out or leads to severe conflict depends on how societies respond to these pressures.
"A wide range of outcomes are on the menu," he writes, "including a highly plausible possibility of a protracted 'cold war' that might escalate to much deadlier 'hot wars,' with the transition aggravated and facilitated by 'hungry wars' of climate change and a swelling tide of immigration'"
The 'world on fire' scenario, mirroring and far exceeding the conflagaration of World War II, is his worst-case scenario, although he holds out hope this can be avoided as the Millennial and Gen Y generations slowly replace the Baby Boomers and Gen-Xers in power positions.
"The neoliberal world of Baby Boomers, though offering more freedom, has led to an unacceptable level of inequality, stagnating productivity and growth, as well as deeper and far more toxic polarisation," Shvets writes.
"This transformed the original Boomers’ idea of freedom and individual responsibility as the key to prosperity and social stability into a Frankenstein monster of dependence on the state to maintain an economic and social model predicated on rising asset prices, leverage, and financialisation."
If armageddon is to be avoided, he hopes the younger generations will follow the lead of the pre-War GI and Silent generations and raise the value of stability and security back above the unfettered 'freedom' and the marketisation of everthing that has prevailed since the late 1970s.
As to what system prevails when AI destroys paid work, climate change finally destroys the myth of exponential growth and populations call a stop to the encroachment of voracious capital from every corner of their lives, Shvets sees two deeply contrasting possibilies.
"The front runners are either a modern iteration of despotic feudalism or an enlightened version of communism (defined in its original sense, as societies of such high productivity that they dispense with the need to toil to earn a living while maintaining most, but not all, personal and economic freedoms). I hope the latter will be the right answer."
I hope so too, but at this juncture the odds don't look good.
The sense of institutions in a slow-motion meltdown and the loss of public faith in capitalism is now hard to ignore. The rise of Trump and other authoritarian populists is but a symptom of the catastrophic failure of the neo-liberal economic model of the past near 50 years.
In this brilliant, acutely observed book, Viktor Shvets - a New York-based global strategist with Australian investment bank Macquarie Capital - analyses this world using the meterological metaphor of the 'Fujiwara Effect', which refers to what happens when overlapping cyclones collide.
In our current situation, the 'cyclones' are the combined storms of the breakdown of the neoliberal order, deep financialisation and a highly disruptive information age - alongside growing social polarisation, environmental degradation and the significant weakening of the institutions of state.
In many countries, the once moderate middle class is collapsing as people lurch for extremes, disenchanted by widening inequities wrought by toxic free market capitalism. Shvets says whether this works itself out or leads to severe conflict depends on how societies respond to these pressures.
"A wide range of outcomes are on the menu," he writes, "including a highly plausible possibility of a protracted 'cold war' that might escalate to much deadlier 'hot wars,' with the transition aggravated and facilitated by 'hungry wars' of climate change and a swelling tide of immigration'"
The 'world on fire' scenario, mirroring and far exceeding the conflagaration of World War II, is his worst-case scenario, although he holds out hope this can be avoided as the Millennial and Gen Y generations slowly replace the Baby Boomers and Gen-Xers in power positions.
"The neoliberal world of Baby Boomers, though offering more freedom, has led to an unacceptable level of inequality, stagnating productivity and growth, as well as deeper and far more toxic polarisation," Shvets writes.
"This transformed the original Boomers’ idea of freedom and individual responsibility as the key to prosperity and social stability into a Frankenstein monster of dependence on the state to maintain an economic and social model predicated on rising asset prices, leverage, and financialisation."
If armageddon is to be avoided, he hopes the younger generations will follow the lead of the pre-War GI and Silent generations and raise the value of stability and security back above the unfettered 'freedom' and the marketisation of everthing that has prevailed since the late 1970s.
As to what system prevails when AI destroys paid work, climate change finally destroys the myth of exponential growth and populations call a stop to the encroachment of voracious capital from every corner of their lives, Shvets sees two deeply contrasting possibilies.
"The front runners are either a modern iteration of despotic feudalism or an enlightened version of communism (defined in its original sense, as societies of such high productivity that they dispense with the need to toil to earn a living while maintaining most, but not all, personal and economic freedoms). I hope the latter will be the right answer."
I hope so too, but at this juncture the odds don't look good.
October 27, 2025
I agree with the main argument of the book but felt the book was rambling with low ratio of insights to words. This should have been a blog post instead of a book.
October 15, 2025
The Twilight Before the Storm: From the Fractured 1930s to Today’s Crisis Culture. Book review by Donald Harvey Marks.
The Twilight Before the Storm, by global strategist Viktor Shvets presents a very readable analysis that the world is in a dangerous transitional period marked by the decline (thank God for that) of neoliberalism. By comparing the current moment to the fractured political and economic landscape of the 1930s, Shvets offers a critical framework for understanding today’s uncertainties.
Key points of the book
Critique of neoliberalism: Shvets argues that neoliberalism, which has dominated economic and political policy for four decades, has become a “failed ideology”. The Global Financial Crisis of 2010 shattered faith in this free-market approach, leading to today’s political and social instability.
Elsewhere, I define the NeoLibs https://bit.ly/3FKqfYJ as generally associated with the 20th-century resurgence of 19th-century ideas of free-market capitalism. As Shvetz points out, Neoliberals advocate (potentially ruinous) policies, including economic liberalization, privatization, deregulation, globalization, free trade, austerity and reductions in government spending in order to increase the role of the private sector in the economy and society.
The “Fujiwara Effect”: A central concept in this book is the merging of advanced technology and deep financialization, which Shvets dubs the “Fujiwara Effect”. This powerful combination has created a world of abundance, not scarcity, by dramatically reshaping global markets, labor dynamics, and capital distribution. This effect is a primary driver of the current upheaval and disinflationary pressures.
Historical parallels to the 1930s: This book draws powerful parallels between today’s crisis and the social, economic, and political fractures of the 1930s. Like in the 1930s, that horrible time that my four grandparents managed to live through, free-market liberalism has been discredited, but no new global consensus has emerged to take its place. This ideological vacuum, combined with technology-driven social disruption (social media and A.I.) has led to a deep loss of faith in institutions.
A “world on fire” and potential conflicts: Shvets warns that without a new societal consensus, humanity could face a “world on fire,” with conflicts ranging from geopolitical tensions to civil strife. He examines where these conflicts might arise and suggests policies to lower tensions and avoid the worst outcomes.
The rise of government intervention: As private markets falter and uncertainty grows, Shvets predicts an increased role for government as a “guardrail”. Governments will need to play a larger part in shaping societal consensus and addressing issues like inequality. This shift challenges the hands-off approach of the neoliberal era.
Homeless orphans trying to keep from freezing on a heat grating in NY City.
A new generational outlook: The Twilight Before the Storm:explores how Millennials and Gen Z view the world differently than the Baby Boomers (my generation), some of whom drove the neoliberal (Ayn Rand and Ronald Reagan) projects. Shvets suggests the younger generation’s (that of our children and grandchildren) worldview, shaped by current conditions, may lead to a future closer to the more constrained, state-involved era of the 1950s and 60s than to the unfettered capitalism of the 1990s.
Related articles from Donald H. Marks, all of which can be found on my personal blog DHMarks.blogspot.com , my Substack, and on my YouTube channel @dhm49
Universal Basic Income (UBI) for the homeless and addicted populations. Bad idea or inevitable?
Could the Government Seize Your Personal Financial Assets in Case of a Financial Crisis?
Are we really in a Financial meltdown? It sure seems like it.
How Critiques of Capitalism Have Evolved. Karl Marx, Thomas Piketty and Victor Shvets.
The pro-Palestinian–anti-Israel alliance claims a prominent place in culture, the news cycle and societal conflict.
Elitists Neocons Neoliberals, Globalists and Narcissists, oh my. What are they, who are they, and why should I care? https://bit.ly/3FKqfYJ
“The End of Reality,” by Johathan Taplin. Book review on wide scale deception and greed by the super wealthy 4 horseman.
Favorite Books and Recent Reads of Donald H. Marks
The Twilight Before the Storm, by global strategist Viktor Shvets presents a very readable analysis that the world is in a dangerous transitional period marked by the decline (thank God for that) of neoliberalism. By comparing the current moment to the fractured political and economic landscape of the 1930s, Shvets offers a critical framework for understanding today’s uncertainties.
Key points of the book
Critique of neoliberalism: Shvets argues that neoliberalism, which has dominated economic and political policy for four decades, has become a “failed ideology”. The Global Financial Crisis of 2010 shattered faith in this free-market approach, leading to today’s political and social instability.
Elsewhere, I define the NeoLibs https://bit.ly/3FKqfYJ as generally associated with the 20th-century resurgence of 19th-century ideas of free-market capitalism. As Shvetz points out, Neoliberals advocate (potentially ruinous) policies, including economic liberalization, privatization, deregulation, globalization, free trade, austerity and reductions in government spending in order to increase the role of the private sector in the economy and society.
The “Fujiwara Effect”: A central concept in this book is the merging of advanced technology and deep financialization, which Shvets dubs the “Fujiwara Effect”. This powerful combination has created a world of abundance, not scarcity, by dramatically reshaping global markets, labor dynamics, and capital distribution. This effect is a primary driver of the current upheaval and disinflationary pressures.
Historical parallels to the 1930s: This book draws powerful parallels between today’s crisis and the social, economic, and political fractures of the 1930s. Like in the 1930s, that horrible time that my four grandparents managed to live through, free-market liberalism has been discredited, but no new global consensus has emerged to take its place. This ideological vacuum, combined with technology-driven social disruption (social media and A.I.) has led to a deep loss of faith in institutions.
A “world on fire” and potential conflicts: Shvets warns that without a new societal consensus, humanity could face a “world on fire,” with conflicts ranging from geopolitical tensions to civil strife. He examines where these conflicts might arise and suggests policies to lower tensions and avoid the worst outcomes.
The rise of government intervention: As private markets falter and uncertainty grows, Shvets predicts an increased role for government as a “guardrail”. Governments will need to play a larger part in shaping societal consensus and addressing issues like inequality. This shift challenges the hands-off approach of the neoliberal era.
Homeless orphans trying to keep from freezing on a heat grating in NY City.
A new generational outlook: The Twilight Before the Storm:explores how Millennials and Gen Z view the world differently than the Baby Boomers (my generation), some of whom drove the neoliberal (Ayn Rand and Ronald Reagan) projects. Shvets suggests the younger generation’s (that of our children and grandchildren) worldview, shaped by current conditions, may lead to a future closer to the more constrained, state-involved era of the 1950s and 60s than to the unfettered capitalism of the 1990s.
Related articles from Donald H. Marks, all of which can be found on my personal blog DHMarks.blogspot.com , my Substack, and on my YouTube channel @dhm49
Universal Basic Income (UBI) for the homeless and addicted populations. Bad idea or inevitable?
Could the Government Seize Your Personal Financial Assets in Case of a Financial Crisis?
Are we really in a Financial meltdown? It sure seems like it.
How Critiques of Capitalism Have Evolved. Karl Marx, Thomas Piketty and Victor Shvets.
The pro-Palestinian–anti-Israel alliance claims a prominent place in culture, the news cycle and societal conflict.
Elitists Neocons Neoliberals, Globalists and Narcissists, oh my. What are they, who are they, and why should I care? https://bit.ly/3FKqfYJ
“The End of Reality,” by Johathan Taplin. Book review on wide scale deception and greed by the super wealthy 4 horseman.
Favorite Books and Recent Reads of Donald H. Marks
August 13, 2026
I heard this author speaking on a podcast (can't remember which one) where he highlighted parallels between the 1930s and the current situation. Certainly by the subtitles that surround the main title ('From the Fractured 1930s to Today's Crisis Culture' and 'How to Avoid a World on Fire'), I expected more of a historical approach than an economic one. I didn't realize that he is actually Macquarie Group's investment strategist, and I may have approached the book differently had I known that.
This is a historical approach, relying on a generational approach (i.e. the idea that different generational cohorts behave particular ways) but it didn't start with the 1930s. Instead his argument starts more with the Baby Boomers and the consensus of the late 1940s to early 1970 that the government was there to provide guardrails against chaos. Certainly there was conformity and repression, and life wasn't as sunny for minority groups, but it led to two decades of economic progress and the rebuilding of societies that had been destroyed during World War II. What I expected this book to be- a comparison of the 1930s with today- does not appear until half-way through.
The book is far more economic-y than I anticipated, with many tables and figures. I did tire of him referring back to his previous book, and it did have just a touch of the thesis about it with quite heavy-handed scaffolding of chapters, introductions and conclusions. It hasn't been particularly well edited in terms of grammar, and I wondered (but have no way of knowing) whether the facts and figures were likewise poorly edited- I should hope that they are not. I regretted the lack of an index, although it does have footnotes.
I'm not the right market for this book, given my aversion to numbers in any form. However, I did enjoy the historical and generational aspects of the book.
For my complete review, please visit:
https://residentjudge.com/2026/08/13/...
This is a historical approach, relying on a generational approach (i.e. the idea that different generational cohorts behave particular ways) but it didn't start with the 1930s. Instead his argument starts more with the Baby Boomers and the consensus of the late 1940s to early 1970 that the government was there to provide guardrails against chaos. Certainly there was conformity and repression, and life wasn't as sunny for minority groups, but it led to two decades of economic progress and the rebuilding of societies that had been destroyed during World War II. What I expected this book to be- a comparison of the 1930s with today- does not appear until half-way through.
The book is far more economic-y than I anticipated, with many tables and figures. I did tire of him referring back to his previous book, and it did have just a touch of the thesis about it with quite heavy-handed scaffolding of chapters, introductions and conclusions. It hasn't been particularly well edited in terms of grammar, and I wondered (but have no way of knowing) whether the facts and figures were likewise poorly edited- I should hope that they are not. I regretted the lack of an index, although it does have footnotes.
I'm not the right market for this book, given my aversion to numbers in any form. However, I did enjoy the historical and generational aspects of the book.
For my complete review, please visit:
https://residentjudge.com/2026/08/13/...
December 4, 2025
The book is a good summary of the upcoming risks that we face in the new era of technology and the alteration of the status quo which has been since WW2 the US and the dollar system.
It provides a good context to where the world might be heading in these years of turmoil. Overall, it is a good books to have a deep thought about what is happening in the world, what are the scenarios that could come and to reflect how that affect each one individually
It provides a good context to where the world might be heading in these years of turmoil. Overall, it is a good books to have a deep thought about what is happening in the world, what are the scenarios that could come and to reflect how that affect each one individually
Want to Read
December 3, 2024This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
December 22, 2024
Good analysis of the past and where we currently stand but would have liked a deeper dive into ‘what will the future hold’ hypotheses.
Displaying 1 - 7 of 7 reviews