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Flawed Strategy: Why Smart Leaders Make Bad Decisions
Why did Volodymyr Zelensky doubt that Russia was preparing a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022? Why did British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain decide to 'do business with Herr Hitler' in Munich in 1938? And how was it that Israeli elites dismissed intelligence warnings of the Hamas attack in 2023? Had they not learned their lesson from the Egyptian‒Syrian attack on Yom Kippur fifty years earlier?
In all these cases, smart decision makers misjudged their adversaries, largely because they failed to understand how their enemies' actions and strategies were shaped by different values and beliefs to their own. We may think such beliefs are irrational merely because we do not share them. They may appear confusing and ill judged. But as Beatrice Heuser ably shows in this pithy book, strategy making is a tricky business, marred by bias, irrationality, bureaucratic politics, colliding government interests, and complex procedures and structures. Assessing our adversaries as not only irrational but also illogical is a dangerous game that can lead to flawed and, on occasions, catastrophically bad decisions. This book explains why.
In all these cases, smart decision makers misjudged their adversaries, largely because they failed to understand how their enemies' actions and strategies were shaped by different values and beliefs to their own. We may think such beliefs are irrational merely because we do not share them. They may appear confusing and ill judged. But as Beatrice Heuser ably shows in this pithy book, strategy making is a tricky business, marred by bias, irrationality, bureaucratic politics, colliding government interests, and complex procedures and structures. Assessing our adversaries as not only irrational but also illogical is a dangerous game that can lead to flawed and, on occasions, catastrophically bad decisions. This book explains why.
208 pages, Paperback
Published March 25, 2025
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October 28, 2025
Earlier this year, I picked up a copy of Beatrice Heuser's remarkable book, 𝘍𝘭𝘢𝘸𝘦𝘥 𝘚𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘨𝘺... and I've just been waiting for the right moment to talk about it. Okay, to be fair, there isn't a wrong moment to talk about a book this good, but recent events seem to make the timing ideal.
In 𝘍𝘭𝘢𝘸𝘦𝘥 𝘚𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘨𝘺, she tackles a deceptively simple question: why seemingly highly intelligent leaders repeatedly make poor strategic decisions. This is a question that's asked more often than we might expect (or want), and she draws on history as a directed lens to explore the cognitive challenges that underpin flawed strategy.
Three major themes emerge in the book:
𝟭. 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝗳𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗰𝘆. Too often, we assume that our adversaries will behave rationally, when in fact they often act on beliefs, values, and internal logic we do not share.
𝟮. 𝗕𝗶𝗮𝘀, 𝗶𝗻𝘀𝘁𝗶𝘁𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗰𝘂𝗹𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝗿𝗴𝗮𝗻𝗶𝘇𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗰𝘀. Even the most intelligent senior leaders and talented groups have filters, blind spots and inherent biases that cloud decision making and perception.
𝟯. 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗲𝘅𝗶𝘁𝘆, 𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘁𝘆, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝗱𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗼𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴. The enemy gets a vote. Strategy is not simply executing your own plan, but anticipating what others will do, with what means, and under what beliefs... and often we lack clarity on all three.
One of the most important takeaways from the book is that good strategy demands not only knowing one’s own aims, but also possessing a thorough understanding of your adversary’s mindset, the institutional constraints you're contending with, and the dynamic interplay between them. As she writes in the book, “We need to understand what our adversaries think, want, and do… It is no good just to know what aims we have in mind, even if we have very smart minds.”
More often than not, strategic failure stems from what we fail to understand rather than mere ignorance of the facts. We get past that by learning to ask better questions about how we think about strategy, particularly when dealing with adversaries who think differently than us.
In 𝘍𝘭𝘢𝘸𝘦𝘥 𝘚𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘨𝘺, she tackles a deceptively simple question: why seemingly highly intelligent leaders repeatedly make poor strategic decisions. This is a question that's asked more often than we might expect (or want), and she draws on history as a directed lens to explore the cognitive challenges that underpin flawed strategy.
Three major themes emerge in the book:
𝟭. 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝗳𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗰𝘆. Too often, we assume that our adversaries will behave rationally, when in fact they often act on beliefs, values, and internal logic we do not share.
𝟮. 𝗕𝗶𝗮𝘀, 𝗶𝗻𝘀𝘁𝗶𝘁𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗰𝘂𝗹𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝗿𝗴𝗮𝗻𝗶𝘇𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗰𝘀. Even the most intelligent senior leaders and talented groups have filters, blind spots and inherent biases that cloud decision making and perception.
𝟯. 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗲𝘅𝗶𝘁𝘆, 𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘁𝘆, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝗱𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗼𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴. The enemy gets a vote. Strategy is not simply executing your own plan, but anticipating what others will do, with what means, and under what beliefs... and often we lack clarity on all three.
One of the most important takeaways from the book is that good strategy demands not only knowing one’s own aims, but also possessing a thorough understanding of your adversary’s mindset, the institutional constraints you're contending with, and the dynamic interplay between them. As she writes in the book, “We need to understand what our adversaries think, want, and do… It is no good just to know what aims we have in mind, even if we have very smart minds.”
More often than not, strategic failure stems from what we fail to understand rather than mere ignorance of the facts. We get past that by learning to ask better questions about how we think about strategy, particularly when dealing with adversaries who think differently than us.
January 25, 2025
Fantastic book, well worth a read. It‘s short and sweet but hits the nail on the head to many interesting concepts. Great for anyone interested in war, politics, history, media and the news!
Displaying 1 - 2 of 2 reviews