In 2018, Ethiopia and the world were in the throes of "Abiymania", a fervor of popular support for the divided country's young, charismatic new prime minister. Arriving as if from nowhere, Abiy Ahmed, a Pentecostal Christian, promised democratic salvation and national unity. For his role brokering a historic peace with neighboring Eritrea, he received the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize. Hailed at home as a prophet and abroad as a liberal reformer, Abiy was all things to all men.
But his democratic revolution wasn't quite what it seemed. Within two years, Ethiopia had lurched into a devastating civil war, threatening state collapse. By 2023, fighting on an apocalyptic scale had killed hundreds of thousands in the northern Tigray region; famine stalked the land; and Ethiopia's once-promising economy lay in tatters. But Abiy had never looked stronger.
Based on hundreds of interviews with Ethiopians of all persuasions, and extensive reporting across the country, this book traces the fading hope of Ethiopia's transition, unravelling the paradoxes of an enigmatic world leader. Despite everything, Abiy remains in power, embodying the new Ethiopia in all its contradiction, triumph and tragedy. But his attempt to remold the country in his image almost broke it--and may break it still.
Tom and David Gardner cofounded The Motley Fool, a multi-media financial education company, in 1993. Since then they have co-authored four New York Times bestsellers, including The Motley Fool Investment Guide and The Motley Fool's Rule Breakers, Rule Makers.
(...) it wasn’t just a minor war in some forgotten place but something with potentially major geopolitical implications.
If large-scale war returns to Ethiopia, particularly to Tigray, the country in its current form might not survive much longer.
Further fragmentation is not unthinkable. Even much of Amhara, the part which historically identified most strongly with the Ethiopian state, is now up in arms against it. If there is hope, it will likely be found beyond Ethiopia’s fractious elites. Over the course of years reporting on the country’s myriad conflicts, it was among ordinary people that I found the most powerful evidence that patches of Ethiopia’s social fabric continue to endure. (Gardner)
A difficult read. Making sense of the recent history, the players, the societal pressures and the links to the past is no mean feat. Of course, there will always be different perspectives of what happened in Ethiopia in the recent civil war. However, this account is well researched and gives the reader the chance to make up their own minds. The lengthy bibliography is a must read in all its entirety. The losers ultimately are the man and woman and child in the street, and those people who have grafted and worked hard all their lives to see their dreams and security and sense of belonging and family be challenged to the core.
Brilliant. This sort of narrative journalism is essential, and I'm grateful to Tom Gardner for producing this compelling book covering Ethiopia from 2018-2024. He was in Ethiopia for this whole process, and though he mostly maintains objectivity, the book does make it seem like he's lived through a horror movie. Abiy Ahmed came to power in Ethiopia in 2018. Everybody, most of all Abiy himself, seemed to think he was the solution to the country's massive problems of development, ethnic tension and political disfunction. Six years later Abiy is still Prime Minister, 100s of thousands of people are dead, millions have been displaced, the constitution is in tatters, and the continued existence of Ethiopia as a state is now more in question than it has ever been.
It would be unfair to blame Abiy for all of this, and Gardner doesn't do that. He ably documents just how cursed the problems facing anyone trying to run Ethiopia in 2018 were. Ethiopia, though a heroic resister of empire, is an empire itself. When a few drops of mass prosperity and security finally trickled down to Ethiopia under the government that ruled the country from the early 1990s to 2018, the many nations that made up the empire started to pull apart. Abiy was selected as Prime Minister in part to placate the largest ethnic group. His titanic self-regard, and real skills as a politician convinced everyone it could somehow work. The unstated, but fairly clear message of this book is that it did not work.
Like all politicians, Abiy Ahmed seems to be a bit of a monster. His delusions and capabilities, combined with the scope of Ethiopia's problems have combined to create a hellish situation. Over six years in power he has turned Ethiopia's ethnicities further against each other. He has pretended to champion the cause of one against the other, until the group he is championing gets too powerful and he turns against it. I suppose it's possible to claim that this is just good politics, or somehow necessary to keep Ethiopia together, but Gardner makes a pretty persuasive case that Abiy has made most things worse.
I followed most of these events, and the Tigray war in particular, fairly closely at the time, and I learned a ton from this book. It was an open question for me whether or not what Abiy and his allies did to the Tigrayans was a genocide. That question has been resolved in the affirmative. One white Economist correspondent's perspective on what has happened in one of Africa's biggest and most strategically important countries is not the final word. On anything. But it is a tremendously accomplished and persuasive first draft of history. Highly recommended.
I read this book whilst travelling in Ethiopia, without the dust cover on as it is not on sale in that country for obvious reasons.
I think as a primer for Ethiopian politics and understanding of the current situation you really can't do any better than this. I went in with a very basic grasp of the relationship between Tigray and Addis, and the personality of Abiy himself, and after reading this felt comfortable talking with locals about the TPLF (which had a leadership schism whilst I was in the region, resulting in people crowding round televisions in a way I have previously only seen for football matches).
It is fascinating to see the contrast between Addis Ababa, where Abiy is building a $10 billion palace on top of a hill, and Tigray where there are 10 vendors at tourist sites but not a single person to buy their wares. To understand this juxtaposition, and the state of Ethiopia itself, you really can't do any better than this.