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The Limits to Growth Revisited
“The Limits to Growth” (Meadows, 1972) generated unprecedented controversy with its predictions of the eventual collapse of the world's economies. First hailed as a great advance in science, “The Limits to Growth” was subsequently rejected and demonized. However, with many national economies now at risk and global peak oil apparently a reality, the methods, scenarios, and predictions of “The Limits to Growth” are in great need of reappraisal. In
The
Limits to Growth Revisited
, Ugo Bardi examines both the science and the polemics surrounding this work, and in particular the reactions of economists that marginalized its methods and conclusions for more than 30 years. “The Limits to Growth” was a milestone in attempts to model the future of our society, and it is vital today for both scientists and policy makers to understand its scientific basis, current relevance, and the social and political mechanisms that led to its rejection. Bardi also addresses the all-important question of whether the methods and approaches of “The Limits to Growth” can contribute to an understanding of what happened to the global economy in the Great Recession and where we are headed from there.
247 pages, Kindle Edition
First published January 1, 2011
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About the author
Ugo Bardi
24 books3 followersUgo Bardi is a polymath who started his career as a chemist working on oil refining, to gradually move to study peak oil and then the trajectory toward collapse that society is following nowadays. He was a faculty member of the University of Florence, Italy. Now he is a member of the executive committee of the Club of Rome, a think tank located in Switzerland, known for having supported "The Limits to Growth" study of 1972.
Ugo is known for several studies in the field of biophysical economics, and his best known proposal is that of the "Seneca Effect," a way to explain why collapses are frequent in our world; so named after the ancient Roman philosopher Lucius Annaeas Seneca
Ugo's books have been imaginative essays dealing with several facets of the human interaction with Earth. How we overexploit resources, how we generate heavy pollution, how we overpopulate the land. And what we can expect for the future in a vision that looks for harmony with the Goddess of Earth, Gaia.
Ugo's most recent books are is "Limits and Beyond" (Exapt Press, 2022), and "Exterminations" (Kimaira Edizioni, 2024). His next book, in preparation, may be titled "The End of Overpopulation"
Ugo is known for several studies in the field of biophysical economics, and his best known proposal is that of the "Seneca Effect," a way to explain why collapses are frequent in our world; so named after the ancient Roman philosopher Lucius Annaeas Seneca
Ugo's books have been imaginative essays dealing with several facets of the human interaction with Earth. How we overexploit resources, how we generate heavy pollution, how we overpopulate the land. And what we can expect for the future in a vision that looks for harmony with the Goddess of Earth, Gaia.
Ugo's most recent books are is "Limits and Beyond" (Exapt Press, 2022), and "Exterminations" (Kimaira Edizioni, 2024). His next book, in preparation, may be titled "The End of Overpopulation"
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Displaying 1 - 3 of 3 reviews
June 12, 2020
Osvrt na geopolitičko modelovanje. Kao dopuna originalnom "The Limits to Growth" predstavlja nezaobilazno štivo za ekonomiste i sociologe.
... Ostali da obiđu kao mene devojke. Pisss
... Ostali da obiđu kao mene devojke. Pisss
September 24, 2014
This is a book about a book — in this case, the famous 1972 book published by the Club of Rome, The Limits to Growth (hereafter: LTG). LTG is accurately described in the foreword as one of the most influential books of the 20th century. In LTG Revisited, there are no startling revelations; it is pretty straightforward. If anyone wants to know the intellectual background of LTG and a review of literature about it, Bardi’s book is just about perfect. It is clearly written and explains discussion of LTG well. However, Bardi does not actually weigh in on the question of whether we actually face limits to growth, although it is clear that this is where his sympathies lie.
Mostly Bardi’s book deals with two subjects: (1) the methods used by the original LTG study, namely, “system dynamics”; and (2) the various criticisms of LTG which led it to be buried in both public and scientific discussion, although decades later further discussion has resurrected its reputation. He is very clear that many of the criticisms of LTG were completely unjustified, if not actual lies.
The first six chapters deal with the scientific and intellectual background to LTG, and the basic methods it used. He starts by describing the phenomenal pace of economic growth following the Second World War. But there was concern as to where all of this was going. Bardi describes the development of the idea of “system dynamics” or “world modeling” and the influence of Jay Forrester, who — while not an author of the original book — devised the basic techniques later to be used in LTG.
The basic idea was that a number of factors in the world economy all influenced each other. Bardi describes how the “World3” model worked, and how modeling in general is set up. He illustrates modeling in terms of a specific example, whaling in the 19th century. Both Forrester and the LTG team independently came to the same conclusion — that there were, in fact, limits to economic growth. Even making substantial modifications to the system to allow for the development of technology, or discovery of far greater natural resources, did not alter the basic results — a collapse of industrial production and population sometime in the twenty-first century.
The second half of the book, the final six chapters, deal with all the criticisms made of LTG. It is really startling to read how totally false accusations were made against LTG. These counter-arguments were mostly of the “straw man” variety; critics accused LTG of making various statements or suggestions which, in fact, are nowhere found in LTG. Yet these arguments were amplified and repeated ad infinitum during the decades following its publication; the book was smeared repeatedly, and the silence of even scientific opinion on this subject was almost total. But then later, people started revisiting the conclusions, looked at what LTG actually said, and concluded that actually LTG was pretty accurate. Most notable among these was Matthew Simmons, an investment banker who then became a prominent defender of the “peak oil” idea. Today, we can see that LTG was an important book with ideas that are deeply needed.
Mostly Bardi’s book deals with two subjects: (1) the methods used by the original LTG study, namely, “system dynamics”; and (2) the various criticisms of LTG which led it to be buried in both public and scientific discussion, although decades later further discussion has resurrected its reputation. He is very clear that many of the criticisms of LTG were completely unjustified, if not actual lies.
The first six chapters deal with the scientific and intellectual background to LTG, and the basic methods it used. He starts by describing the phenomenal pace of economic growth following the Second World War. But there was concern as to where all of this was going. Bardi describes the development of the idea of “system dynamics” or “world modeling” and the influence of Jay Forrester, who — while not an author of the original book — devised the basic techniques later to be used in LTG.
The basic idea was that a number of factors in the world economy all influenced each other. Bardi describes how the “World3” model worked, and how modeling in general is set up. He illustrates modeling in terms of a specific example, whaling in the 19th century. Both Forrester and the LTG team independently came to the same conclusion — that there were, in fact, limits to economic growth. Even making substantial modifications to the system to allow for the development of technology, or discovery of far greater natural resources, did not alter the basic results — a collapse of industrial production and population sometime in the twenty-first century.
The second half of the book, the final six chapters, deal with all the criticisms made of LTG. It is really startling to read how totally false accusations were made against LTG. These counter-arguments were mostly of the “straw man” variety; critics accused LTG of making various statements or suggestions which, in fact, are nowhere found in LTG. Yet these arguments were amplified and repeated ad infinitum during the decades following its publication; the book was smeared repeatedly, and the silence of even scientific opinion on this subject was almost total. But then later, people started revisiting the conclusions, looked at what LTG actually said, and concluded that actually LTG was pretty accurate. Most notable among these was Matthew Simmons, an investment banker who then became a prominent defender of the “peak oil” idea. Today, we can see that LTG was an important book with ideas that are deeply needed.
July 15, 2014
nothing breath-taking but some nice points that nudge you to think in a different direction
Displaying 1 - 3 of 3 reviews