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Impasse: Climate Change and the Limits of Progress
A Next Big Idea Club "Must Read" for August 2025!
We need a new realism in the face of global climate catastrophe.
Extreme heat, fires, floods, and storms are transforming our planet. Yet instead of serious responses from world leaders, we get increasing emissions, divisive politics, and ersatz solutions that offer more of the more capitalism, more complexity, more "progress."
The impasse we face is not only political and institutional, but cognitive, existential, and narrative. We're incapable of grasping the scale, speed, and impact of global warming. Our brains can't make sense of how radically our world is changing. And we optimistically cling to a civilizational narrative that promises a better tomorrow if we just keep doing what we're doing.
It's well past time, Roy Scranton argues, to free ourselves from our dangerous and dogmatic faith in progress. Such unwarranted optimism will only accelerate our collective disintegration. If we want to have any hope at all for the future, it must be grounded in a recognition of human limits—a view Scranton calls ethical pessimism.
Drawing from psychology, philosophy, history, and politics, as well as film, literature, and personal experience, Scranton describes the challenges we face in making sense of our predicament, from problems in communication to questions of justice, from the inherent biases in human perception to the difficulties of empirical knowledge. What emerges is a challenging but ultimately hopeful if we have the courage to accept our limits, we may find a way to embrace our unknowable future.
We need a new realism in the face of global climate catastrophe.
Extreme heat, fires, floods, and storms are transforming our planet. Yet instead of serious responses from world leaders, we get increasing emissions, divisive politics, and ersatz solutions that offer more of the more capitalism, more complexity, more "progress."
The impasse we face is not only political and institutional, but cognitive, existential, and narrative. We're incapable of grasping the scale, speed, and impact of global warming. Our brains can't make sense of how radically our world is changing. And we optimistically cling to a civilizational narrative that promises a better tomorrow if we just keep doing what we're doing.
It's well past time, Roy Scranton argues, to free ourselves from our dangerous and dogmatic faith in progress. Such unwarranted optimism will only accelerate our collective disintegration. If we want to have any hope at all for the future, it must be grounded in a recognition of human limits—a view Scranton calls ethical pessimism.
Drawing from psychology, philosophy, history, and politics, as well as film, literature, and personal experience, Scranton describes the challenges we face in making sense of our predicament, from problems in communication to questions of justice, from the inherent biases in human perception to the difficulties of empirical knowledge. What emerges is a challenging but ultimately hopeful if we have the courage to accept our limits, we may find a way to embrace our unknowable future.
392 pages, Hardcover
Published August 5, 2025
6 people are currently reading
122 people want to read
About the author
Roy Scranton
12 books119 followersRoy Scranton is the author of Impasse: Climate Change and the Limits of Progress (Stanford University Press, 2025), I ♥ Oklahoma! (Soho Press, 2019), Total Mobilization: World War II and American Literature (University of Chicago Press, 2019), We’re Doomed. Now What? (Soho Press, 2018), War Porn (Soho Press, 2016), and Learning to Die in the Anthropocene: Reflections on the End of a Civilization (City Lights, 2015). He has written for the New York Times, Rolling Stone, The Nation, the New Republic, The Baffler, Yale Review, Emergence, Boston Review, and elsewhere, and he co-edited What Future: The Year’s Best Ideas to Reclaim, Reanimate & Reinvent Our Future (Unnamed Press, 2017) and Fire and Forget: Short Stories from the Long War (Da Capo, 2013).
His essay “Learning How to Die in the Anthropocene” was selected for the 2015 Best American Science and Nature Writing, he was a post-doctoral research fellow at the Center for Energy and Environmental Research in the Human Sciences at Rice University, and he has been awarded a Whiting Fellowship in the Humanities, a Lannan Literary Fellowship for Fiction, and a Guggenheim Fellowship.
His essay “Learning How to Die in the Anthropocene” was selected for the 2015 Best American Science and Nature Writing, he was a post-doctoral research fellow at the Center for Energy and Environmental Research in the Human Sciences at Rice University, and he has been awarded a Whiting Fellowship in the Humanities, a Lannan Literary Fellowship for Fiction, and a Guggenheim Fellowship.
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September 27, 2025In "Impasse", Roy Scranton confronts readers with one of the most urgent and unsettling truths of our era: climate change is not a distant threat - it is already transforming the world, and our traditional beliefs in progress, technology, and human ingenuity may leave us dangerously unprepared. Rather than offering sugar-coated optimism or simplistic solutions, the book presents a radical approach to living ethically and meaningfully in the face of probable civilizational collapse. Scranton argues that we must abandon comforting illusions and embrace what he calls 'ethical pessimism,' a mindset that accepts harsh realities while still caring for others and acting with purpose.
Scranton begins by challenging the cultural narrative that human progress is inevitable. We tend to believe that effort, innovation, and good intentions can overcome any obstacle. But climate change exposes the fragility of this worldview. Global temperatures are projected to rise four degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100, possibly even sooner, making modern civilization in its current form unsustainable. Over the past 75 years, humanity has multiplied its energy use and material production at unprecedented rates. Vehicles now number over 850 million, plastic production has skyrocketed to 300 million tons annually, and fossil fuel energy consumption has surged by 3,000 percent. These achievements, often celebrated as civilizational progress, are built on the temporary extraction of carbon reserves from the Earth, not moral or intellectual advancement. Our faith in progress blinds us to ecological limits and the slow-motion collapse already underway - a phenomenon Scranton calls 'Apocalypse 24/7.'
The book emphasizes that climate change is far more than an environmental problem. It intersects with biodiversity loss, economic fragility, political instability, and global interdependence. Efforts to simultaneously grow economies and reduce emissions are fundamentally incompatible, creating choices that are as politically complex as they are morally fraught. Public discourse is hampered by low scientific literacy, partisan polarization, and corporate obfuscation. These systemic challenges make climate change effectively unmanageable through conventional politics or activism alone. Scranton concludes that confronting these truths requires a radical reevaluation of our assumptions about progress, ethics, and human control.
Scranton examines why traditional ethical frameworks struggle to address climate change. He compares the utilitarian approach of Peter Singer, who argues that distance should not lessen moral responsibility, with Garrett Hardin’s 'lifeboat ethics,' which prioritize self-preservation. Both frameworks fail when applied to climate change: Singer’s approach is paralyzing in its abstraction, while Hardin oversimplifies a world of interconnected systems. Climate decisions involve impossible trade-offs across time and space: should developing nations be allowed to pollute to achieve economic parity, or should rich nations enforce immediate emissions reductions at the cost of global inequality? Even well-intentioned strategies, like climate justice campaigns, can backfire, inadvertently reassuring elites of their safety while encouraging inaction. The complexity of the crisis exceeds human cognitive capacity, forcing a confrontation with limits and uncertainty.
One of Scranton’s key insights is that humans are biologically and culturally predisposed to dangerous optimism. Research shows that most people systematically overestimate their control and expect unrealistically positive outcomes. While optimism may have conferred survival advantages in small-scale tribal life, it becomes hazardous when combined with advanced technology and planetary-scale crises. Historical examples, from Voltaire’s critique of philosophical optimism after the 1755 Lisbon earthquake to contemporary overconfidence in technological fixes like 'net zero emissions,' illustrate how faith in progress can delay necessary action. Recognizing the limits of control and abandoning illusions of inevitable improvement is essential to ethical engagement with the climate crisis.
From this perspective, Scranton introduces the concept of ethical pessimism. Unlike despair, which can paralyze, or technological optimism, which can mislead, ethical pessimism acknowledges harsh realities while preserving moral and practical agency. Scranton draws on historical and cultural examples, including the story of Crow Chief Plenty-Coups, who envisioned the disappearance of buffalo and the collapse of his people’s way of life. He survived by practicing 'radical hope,' focusing on adaptation and moral responsibility even without knowing what the future would look like. Ethical pessimism, in Scranton’s formulation, is not fatalism; it is the conscious cultivation of purpose, care, and resilience within an uncertain and deteriorating world.
Scranton further argues that meaningful action requires embracing both hope and despair simultaneously. We live through a slow collapse, one that cannot be fully managed or predicted. The challenge is not to find solutions that restore the status quo but to live with intention and compassion amid uncertainty. Cultural narratives, literature, and philosophical thought provide guidance: Ursula K. Le Guin’s 'Omelas' presents a society whose happiness depends on the suffering of one child, forcing readers to confront moral compromise, complicity, and impossible choices. David Benatar’s philosophical analysis, suggesting that nonexistence might be preferable to life because it avoids suffering, underscores the tension between rational calculation and lived experience. These paradoxes reveal that human engagement with catastrophe cannot rely on simple metrics or linear thinking.
Instead, Scranton advocates for practical ethical engagement: building mutual aid networks, caring for vulnerable communities, and focusing on what can be influenced rather than what cannot. He emphasizes that survival is not about heroic control over nature but about adaptation, collaboration, and attention to immediate moral obligations. Living meaningfully requires seeing the world clearly, understanding limits, and responding to suffering with empathy and effort, even when the larger outcome remains uncertain.
In essence, "Impasse" urges readers to confront the profound, uncomfortable truth that climate change is already altering the world in ways beyond our control. It critiques faith in progress, optimism bias, and conventional morality, and replaces them with ethical pessimism: a framework for living responsibly and intentionally amidst collapse. Scranton challenges the reader to balance despair with hope, to recognize the impossibility of total solutions while continuing to act with care, and to cultivate resilience in both thought and action. The book reframes climate change not merely as a technical or political problem but as a moral and existential challenge, demanding humility, honesty, and practical ethical engagement.
Ultimately, the takeaway from "Impasse: Climate Change and the Limits of Progress" by Roy Scranton is that humanity must confront climate change with realism, not faith in progress. The crisis cannot be solved by optimism alone, and conventional ethical frameworks are insufficient to navigate its complexities. Instead, we must embrace ethical pessimism: acknowledging unavoidable collapse while actively seeking to reduce harm, support one another, and live with integrity amid uncertainty. By letting go of illusions of control and technological salvation, we can cultivate meaningful existence even in a world increasingly defined by environmental and societal limits.
Scranton begins by challenging the cultural narrative that human progress is inevitable. We tend to believe that effort, innovation, and good intentions can overcome any obstacle. But climate change exposes the fragility of this worldview. Global temperatures are projected to rise four degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100, possibly even sooner, making modern civilization in its current form unsustainable. Over the past 75 years, humanity has multiplied its energy use and material production at unprecedented rates. Vehicles now number over 850 million, plastic production has skyrocketed to 300 million tons annually, and fossil fuel energy consumption has surged by 3,000 percent. These achievements, often celebrated as civilizational progress, are built on the temporary extraction of carbon reserves from the Earth, not moral or intellectual advancement. Our faith in progress blinds us to ecological limits and the slow-motion collapse already underway - a phenomenon Scranton calls 'Apocalypse 24/7.'
The book emphasizes that climate change is far more than an environmental problem. It intersects with biodiversity loss, economic fragility, political instability, and global interdependence. Efforts to simultaneously grow economies and reduce emissions are fundamentally incompatible, creating choices that are as politically complex as they are morally fraught. Public discourse is hampered by low scientific literacy, partisan polarization, and corporate obfuscation. These systemic challenges make climate change effectively unmanageable through conventional politics or activism alone. Scranton concludes that confronting these truths requires a radical reevaluation of our assumptions about progress, ethics, and human control.
Scranton examines why traditional ethical frameworks struggle to address climate change. He compares the utilitarian approach of Peter Singer, who argues that distance should not lessen moral responsibility, with Garrett Hardin’s 'lifeboat ethics,' which prioritize self-preservation. Both frameworks fail when applied to climate change: Singer’s approach is paralyzing in its abstraction, while Hardin oversimplifies a world of interconnected systems. Climate decisions involve impossible trade-offs across time and space: should developing nations be allowed to pollute to achieve economic parity, or should rich nations enforce immediate emissions reductions at the cost of global inequality? Even well-intentioned strategies, like climate justice campaigns, can backfire, inadvertently reassuring elites of their safety while encouraging inaction. The complexity of the crisis exceeds human cognitive capacity, forcing a confrontation with limits and uncertainty.
One of Scranton’s key insights is that humans are biologically and culturally predisposed to dangerous optimism. Research shows that most people systematically overestimate their control and expect unrealistically positive outcomes. While optimism may have conferred survival advantages in small-scale tribal life, it becomes hazardous when combined with advanced technology and planetary-scale crises. Historical examples, from Voltaire’s critique of philosophical optimism after the 1755 Lisbon earthquake to contemporary overconfidence in technological fixes like 'net zero emissions,' illustrate how faith in progress can delay necessary action. Recognizing the limits of control and abandoning illusions of inevitable improvement is essential to ethical engagement with the climate crisis.
From this perspective, Scranton introduces the concept of ethical pessimism. Unlike despair, which can paralyze, or technological optimism, which can mislead, ethical pessimism acknowledges harsh realities while preserving moral and practical agency. Scranton draws on historical and cultural examples, including the story of Crow Chief Plenty-Coups, who envisioned the disappearance of buffalo and the collapse of his people’s way of life. He survived by practicing 'radical hope,' focusing on adaptation and moral responsibility even without knowing what the future would look like. Ethical pessimism, in Scranton’s formulation, is not fatalism; it is the conscious cultivation of purpose, care, and resilience within an uncertain and deteriorating world.
Scranton further argues that meaningful action requires embracing both hope and despair simultaneously. We live through a slow collapse, one that cannot be fully managed or predicted. The challenge is not to find solutions that restore the status quo but to live with intention and compassion amid uncertainty. Cultural narratives, literature, and philosophical thought provide guidance: Ursula K. Le Guin’s 'Omelas' presents a society whose happiness depends on the suffering of one child, forcing readers to confront moral compromise, complicity, and impossible choices. David Benatar’s philosophical analysis, suggesting that nonexistence might be preferable to life because it avoids suffering, underscores the tension between rational calculation and lived experience. These paradoxes reveal that human engagement with catastrophe cannot rely on simple metrics or linear thinking.
Instead, Scranton advocates for practical ethical engagement: building mutual aid networks, caring for vulnerable communities, and focusing on what can be influenced rather than what cannot. He emphasizes that survival is not about heroic control over nature but about adaptation, collaboration, and attention to immediate moral obligations. Living meaningfully requires seeing the world clearly, understanding limits, and responding to suffering with empathy and effort, even when the larger outcome remains uncertain.
In essence, "Impasse" urges readers to confront the profound, uncomfortable truth that climate change is already altering the world in ways beyond our control. It critiques faith in progress, optimism bias, and conventional morality, and replaces them with ethical pessimism: a framework for living responsibly and intentionally amidst collapse. Scranton challenges the reader to balance despair with hope, to recognize the impossibility of total solutions while continuing to act with care, and to cultivate resilience in both thought and action. The book reframes climate change not merely as a technical or political problem but as a moral and existential challenge, demanding humility, honesty, and practical ethical engagement.
Ultimately, the takeaway from "Impasse: Climate Change and the Limits of Progress" by Roy Scranton is that humanity must confront climate change with realism, not faith in progress. The crisis cannot be solved by optimism alone, and conventional ethical frameworks are insufficient to navigate its complexities. Instead, we must embrace ethical pessimism: acknowledging unavoidable collapse while actively seeking to reduce harm, support one another, and live with integrity amid uncertainty. By letting go of illusions of control and technological salvation, we can cultivate meaningful existence even in a world increasingly defined by environmental and societal limits.
October 23, 2025
Humble and realistic antidote to the still prevailing view of climate change as something to be 'solved' through a combination of technological innovation and political will.
November 15, 2025
(All books get 5 stars.) Scranton argues that optimism and a belief in progress are actually keeping us from an ethical response to climate change realities. He outlines the fallacies of believing that things will somehow get better, that someone somewhere will save us from the trajectory of destruction we’re on. He advocates for Ethical Pessimism instead, a sober acceptance of our reality and a commitment to easing suffering in the here and now.
When I saw him speak on this topic, I was struck by the palpable relief in the room at being allowed to admit we are in a crisis that is unsolvable. As Scranton explains in the book, optimism can lead us to inaction and avoidance because we are relying so heavily on a magic solution in the future. Admitting that we can’t fix this, that we must go through it, allows the brain to confront suffering and process it instead of internalize it.
I have always thought of myself as an optimist personally, but after reading this I think I’m actually more philosophically aligned with Pessimism. It was enlightening.
When I saw him speak on this topic, I was struck by the palpable relief in the room at being allowed to admit we are in a crisis that is unsolvable. As Scranton explains in the book, optimism can lead us to inaction and avoidance because we are relying so heavily on a magic solution in the future. Admitting that we can’t fix this, that we must go through it, allows the brain to confront suffering and process it instead of internalize it.
I have always thought of myself as an optimist personally, but after reading this I think I’m actually more philosophically aligned with Pessimism. It was enlightening.
December 7, 2025
I think I was not the target audience for this book. I have forever been consuming media answering the question this book asks - how to live ethically in a world of suffering with limited power and knowledge. This was a little more abstract ("what do we mean by human? what do we mean by world?") than I was looking for but there were at least 30 pages I dog-eared because they expressed something I know/believe particularly well ("False prophets seduce us with happy endings and zealots get us drunk on hate, while the planet-devouring machinery of carbon capitalism grinds on even as it unravels, offering the comforting illusion of an eternal present") or taught me something new (data supporting the idea that realistic messaging about climate change will cause people to despair into inaction doesn't really exist). Interestingly frequent references to media I like also (Omelas, First Reformed). Recommend if you want a robust argument for pessimism :)
December 23, 2025
This is a searing investigation of the state of the world vis a vis climate change. It details information and opinions that suggest we have reached an important moment that will determine what happens to the world in the not too distant future.
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