THE MUST-READ BOOK ON THE WORLD'S BIGGEST FLASHPOINT
A BBC HISTORY MAGAZINE AND DAILY EXPRESS BOOK OF THE YEAR
'Magnificent ... As exciting to read as it is important' Peter Frankopan
'Fascinating ...essential reading' Helen Thompson
'Alarming and uplifting' John Kampfner
The Baltic will decide the course of the West in the coming years.
These nine borderlands are not only the historical battleground of Russian aggression; they are also a factory of ideas for how to revive Europe. Shaped by the past one hundred years, each Baltic country offers lessons in adaptability, hope and prosperity in an era of instability.
Innovation in Estonia, patience in Finland, resilience in Poland, even poetry in with their tumultuous pasts and exposed geography, these poorly understood frontline states are reconfiguring the balance of power around the heart of Eurasia. From pioneering environmental initiatives and world-leading innovations in technology to ever-growing economies, from tackling disinformation to tempering the populist right, the Baltic states are now key to understanding how political events might unfold in the coming years.
Blending history, politics and reportage, this is the first book to explain why these are some of our most imaginative allies, yet most of us know so little about them. Interviewing prime ministers, presidents, generals, intelligence officers, business leaders and ordinary people, Oliver Moody traces the extraordinary emergence of a new fulcrum of great-power rivalry. But the real reason we need to understand them is that their fate is ours.
Here is the review of the book from the Latvian point of view.
The introduction to the book was stunning. Reading this sentence, you might naturally think I mean this positively—language can indeed play tricks on us. But no, this time I mean it in the other sense of the word: the introduction literally stunned me. Similarly, the title of the book initially toyed with my perceptions. It evoked exclusively positive associations. It conjured ambitious, optimistic visions, prompting me to mention it to friends with a touch of sarcasm, à la how could anyone even think of something like this? Of course, only a foreigner could be this ambitious; a local would never dare. Later, after reading the introduction, I found myself questioning why I'd initially approached the title so uncritically. Was it my inherent, incurable optimism—the belief that the future must always be bright and promising? Or was it perhaps provincial insecurity, a thrill at the mere fact that someone had written a book about us? Maybe the appealing cover design also played its part: at the top, the spire of a local-style church (much like St. Peter's, though topped with a cross instead of a rooster), while below, rocket wings emerged. Clearly, the cover spoke of our military strength. But no. After reading the introduction, all my positive assumptions were shattered, as it became clear that the words - Baltic, the Future of Europe - can carry the opposite meaning. In the context of this book, the message was stark: if war were to break out in Europe, it would start in the Baltic region. The “brief holiday from history” was over; the Baltics had become “a very tectonic place," currently subjected to every possible form of hybrid warfare. Europe must end its illusions that everything revolves around traditional powers. The European center of gravity is steadily shifting eastwards. If Europe wishes to protect its peace, it must pay close attention to the Baltics. These are the sobering insights we gather from the introduction. The book aims to introduce 'old Europe' to its most loyal friends and allies—those whom, as the author himself acknowledges, "most of us know little about," yet who will need Europe's defense in its darkest hour. The author—a Berlin-based British journalist for The Times—executes this task brilliantly. I should start by highlighting the author's bold expansion of the definition of the Baltics. Our familiar three Baltic states become nine countries bordering the Baltic Sea: Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Germany. There is also a chapter on Russia, describing in detail its hybrid warfare strategies. This broader Baltic definition is a courageous innovation worthy of praise—an attempt to forge a new shared identity among Baltic Sea nations. In these turbulent times, that's precisely what we need: a stronger sense of unity. Despite Sweden's occasional aristocratic pretensions and Germany's persistent view of itself as a European great power with little in common with the Baltic states, the reality remains that the Baltic Sea has effectively become a NATO lake. Thus, there's real potential for creating a new, expanded Baltic identity. We—the small nations—would benefit the most from such a new regional narrative. It would mean we are part of something bigger. It would ensure support from allies. It would strengthen our collective resistance to adversaries, as we are always stronger together. It would mean hope that we wouldn't be left alone again—as history has repeatedly shown, something the author thoroughly and openly reminds us without glossing over the darker sides of Western policy. Naturally, the first chapter I read was on Latvia. I know Latvia well and knew that this chapter would indicate whether the book as a whole could be trusted. And, oh, how positively this British journalist surprised me! Within just thirty pages, the author condensed not only Latvia's current socioeconomic situation but its entire history. Moreover, he vividly illustrated our struggles and challenges through cultural touchstones like the poetic epic and rock opera "Lāčplēsis." His writing avoided Western condescension, stereotypes or superficial assumptions. Instead, he captured our so called Volksgeist, the spirit of our nation, to use a romanticist phrase. The book's greatest value isn't simply informing Europe about us but allowing us to get to know each other better. With genuine interest, I read the chapters about Lithuania and Estonia, thrilled to finally have a book that gave deeper insights into our neighbors. Our histories are so similar that sometimes it feels we're identical, like three droplets of water. This book reinforces pride and gives a sense of security, knowing we live between two intelligent and strong neighbors. I've long believed we should learn Lithuanian and Estonian—it seems only logical to collaborate more closely on governmental, military, and business levels. Despite its alarming introduction, the book is overall positive, concluding with a boldly visionary message. Initially, I thought this emotional rollercoaster was a mere marketing tactic. But actually, the book’s emotional structure reflects our daily reality as Baltic inhabitants since Russia's invasion of Ukraine: from paralyzing historical fears rooted in traumatic generational memories, to bursts of strength and patriotism, and finally to everyday life—where, despite underlying concerns, we continue to live, work, celebrate and hope for the best. The author skillfully encapsulates the full emotional spectrum of our region. And that's precisely what makes this book truly successful—it speaks not just of geopolitics, facts and arguments, but also narrates the human experiences of fear, struggle and triumph.
as a proud Lithuanian, I appreciated the hell out of this book, and one quarter in, I started to look for another copy to give to my non-Lithuanian partner.
because it explains a lot.
it does a phenomenal job at explaining the historical circumstances that shaped the current atmosphere - and culture - around national identity and political views in the Baltics. I started the book with a rather sceptical attitude - excited that the author is focusing on Baltic countries, but not being quite sure how someone who is not from the region can capture the subtle nuances of it. however, he did it, and he did it well.
it covers the complex geopolitical interactions with an approach of evaluating the facts, as opposed to fear-mongering. as a result, having read this book on, fundamentally, war and aggression, in the depth of these uncertain times, I emerged feeling calm, thoughtful, and determined.
it is an excellent book for anyone trying to understand the politics of the Baltic region - or the feelings of their Baltic girlfriend.
Peculiar book, part survey, part history, part warning.
With the fall of the iron curtain the boundary between East and West moves eastwards. NATO incorporates Russia's Warsaw pact allies and the Baltic States of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia, as well as the hitherto neutral Finland and Sweden.
The Baltic becomes a NATO lake, with the significant exceptions of Kaliningrad and St Petersburg.
The author argues that the Baltic is where western flashpoints with Russia will occur - and in some ways already are, with mysterious cyber attacks, expulsions of asylum seekers onto western borders, interference with communications cables and sabotage of Polish railways.
The Baltic littoral states have to face the reality of an increasingly aggressive Russia, they do not have the luxury of distance from the Bear that say the UK or France have. They are preparing for the threat with quiet determination and grit. Russia knows very well that national resilience is a powerful tool - remember how 3m Finns held off Stalin in WW2.
The mess that Russia has made of its aggressive war in Ukraine shows what national cohesion can do, and there is optimism that the West's defence will hold, but we do need to act now.
I could not have chosen a better time to read this book. Watching how events turn out in real time, I wish people who make decisions about the future of Ukraine right now could read this book before doing anything. Because they would understand that the "stability" in the Baltic region and Eastern Europe as it was perceived by the Western world was always threatened by russia. Cyber attacks, threats, provocations - with all of that, the Baltic region lives for decades. And no one else has better experience at dealing with russia than those countries. We just need to listen more and use the experience. As the author wrote: "Short memories and tunnel vision are luxuries that we can not afford." Western world now lives with short memory and can pay a big price for that. In the end, it is hard to survive the storm (Russia) without any actions, but it is almost impossible to survive climate change (China) if actions are not taken now. How the world reacts to russia's aggression against Ukraine now will show in which world we will live in the future.
Kurzmeinung: Unsere Freiheit wird an der Ostsee verteidigt werden müssen! Rezensionstitel: Klug, verständlich und äußerst beunruhigend! Wie Oliver Moody ganz richtig feststellt, schenkt man den kleinen Anrainerstaaten rund um die Ostsee für gewöhnlich wenig Beachtung. Wer lernt polnisch, wer lettisch? Finnisch, estnisch? Von der Historie Estlands, Finnlands, Lettlands, Litauens und Polens weiß man meistens wenig. Es wird besser bei Dänemark und Schweden, aber nicht viel und die Allgemeinbildung des normalen Bildungsbürgers erreicht endlich ein zufriedenstellendes Niveau bei Russland und Deutschland. Auch die gesamte restliche Welt schenkte bisher der Region wenig Beachtung. Zu wenig politischer Einfluss, zu wenig wirtschaftliche Kraft, zu klein in jeder Beziehung. Doch die Anrainer der Ostsee mausern sich. Heute, 2025, richtet sich der Blick auf die Kleinen und Mittelkleinen. Denn die Anrainerstaaten spielen eine Rolle, seit Putin seine Ambitionen, Russlands alte Einflusssphäre wieder zu bekommen, mit den martialischen Mitteln von Krieg und Barbarei unterstreicht!
Der Kommentar und der Leseeindruck: Insgesamt erschütternd! Moody stellt eins dieser Anrainerländer nach dem anderen vor des Lesers Auge. Er erzählt in verständlicher Weise je vom Unabhängigkeitskampf der Länder von Russland, von ihrer Entwicklung seit der Unabhängigkeit und von ihren Sorgen, was die Nachbarschaft mit dem großen Russland angeht. Sie rüsten sich und bereiten sich vor, denn Putins Russland will nach ihnen greifen. Da sind sie sich sicher. Dieses Sachbuch ist nicht nur punktuell ein Augenöffner für mich, es ist auch flott geschrieben und liest sich in großen Teilen (gegen Ende wird es etwas zäher) wie von selbst. Dies liegt sowohl am Thema, an der Schreibweise und am klaren Aufbau des Werks. Jedes Land wird beleuchtet, natürlich auch Deutschland und Schweden und Finnland: wie sieht es mit ihrem militärischen Gewicht aus?
Bei dem Titel „Konfliktzone Ostsee“ ging ich zunächst in die Irre, denn ich hatte erwartet, dass die Ostsee selbst im Mittelpunkt von Moodys Erzählung stehe. Also die Probleme des Meeres behandelt, Pollution, Fischfangquoten, etc. Aber dies ist nur marginal der Fall. Stattdessen bereitet Moody die Leser darauf vor, was es bedeutet und was es uns kosten könnte, sich Russlands imperialistischen Bestrebungen entgegenzustellen. Können wir uns verteidigen? Wo stehen wir gegenwärtig wirtschaftlich, intellektuell, gesellschaftlich, militärisch?
Fazit: Ein kluges und gut geschriebenes Buch, das zur Allgemeinbildung gehört. Ich gebe eine klare Leseempfehlung!
Very impressive book; having lived in Finland I’m not a complete novice to the region, but I learnt a lot, and overall felt the book was very well researched.
The topic is very timely but goes far beyond the recent aggression of Russia in Ukraine. The book transposes you in the minds of the Baltic states bordering Russia (very much including Finland), but also gives a credible way to explain Russian thinking: “There is no longer any clear distinction between peacetime and wartime.” And also comments around (Russian) “hybrid warfare”, and the “decisive battleground for the mind in Europe”.
It is by no means a fatalistic book, despite Russian’s ambitions and despite a decreaeed presence of the US in Europe; but it is a wake-up call.
Security is not a thing to be restored, but something to be created. I would highly recommend “Baltic The future of Europe.”
Great book about how the balance of Europe is changing. Moody helps you build a real bond with each of the Baltic states, going through their good and their bad before explaining what is at stake with Russia on their doorstep. Well written with lots of good quotes - should be read by anyone looking to understand Europe’s East and Russia’s influence on it.
I just finished Baltics by Oliver Moody, and what struck me most was how deeply the Soviet Union shaped the region, not only in the Baltic states, but also in their relationship to Scandinavia.
The book gave me a much richer view of how the Baltic countries endured and responded to Soviet control, and how those long-term pressures influenced their politics, culture, and resilience. It also shed light on how their Scandinavian neighbors were impacted by proximity, through security concerns, energy politics, and the need to redefine their role in the region.
What I really appreciated was that the book didn’t generalize all three Baltic states as one block. Each has its own story and response to Soviet dominance, and understanding those differences makes their modern values - strength, resilience, and generosity (like their support for Ukraine today) even more meaningful.
This is not just history locked in the past - it’s a story about how a shared experience of Soviet influence continues to shape the region’s identity and alliances today.
Highly recommend if you want to understand the long shadow of the Soviet Union on Northern Europe, and why the Baltic states matter so much right now.
Uitstekend boek, dat naast de bezettingsgeschiedenis van de Baltische staten, ook laat zie hoe de grenslanden aan Rusland, zoals Finland. Estland… Polen zich voorbereiden op een oorlog. Wat niet wil zeggen dat er een rechtstreekse oorlog komt met Rusland! Maar wel iets waarvan we bijvoorbeeld in België als het aankomt op militaire structuren nog wat kunnen leren van die landen.
En mycket aktuell och intressant bok. Fyllde pinsamma kunskapsluckor om våra baltiska grannländer. Jag ser gärna Sverige blir mer som Finland och Baltikum. Eller utvidgar den svenska identiteten att utöver Norden/Skandinavien också innefatta en baltisk/östersjö-identitet. De besitter en oerhörd kunskap och erfarenheter av Ryssland som skapat en motståndskraft hela västvärlden bör lära av. Det börjar med att vi inte vacklar i vår solidaritet med Ukraina. Rekommenderas!
I picked up this book in Limerick, IE and it does not seem it is even available yet in the US (at least in print format). The author is a British foreign correspondent for The Times and so while the books must be evaluated with a view to its natural western bias it does not suffer from direct influence of US based media.
Heavily researched and fact/interview heavy, Moody’s premise that Baltic nation independence ( and in particular the three traditional “Baltic states” ) is critical to deterrence of an all out Russia/NATO crisis. That assessment isn’t novel and sensible enough. Oliver also heavily implies, though explicitly disclaims, that Ukraine’s success in defending itself against Russia is necessary to prevent Russia’s outright attack on the Baltic. This thesis is more novel but also more problematic as within Baltic itself the author acknowledges the potential for challenging internal dynamics and support for an outright attach on the Baltics.
As John Murray describes in his review of the work in Literary Review Oliver is sympathetic to the interests of the Baltic states but perhaps excessively so. Nevertheless the book’s facts and quotes provide ample opportunity for the reader to draw their own conclusions. Indeed, I learned much in reading this book and when evaluated broadly, provides insights into the views, comments, and actions of current North American and European policy makers, when evaluating on a smaller scale the effect of dependence on other countries, and potentially non-allies on energy, materials, and other physical goods, and in light of a broader shift in political mood towards greater nationalization.
An excellent read and enlightening beyond the author’s intended theses. Four stars.
This book shines a light on the strategic, historical and philosophical importance of those countries with shores on the Baltic Sea, to the future of Europe. Their experiences of Russia as aggressor and/or occupier have given them an invaluable insight into how Russia operates and how the rest of Europe should act now in ensuring Ukraine wins the war.
I rated it 4*** because there wasn't much new to me personally in it (I live in Latvia). But this book is a must-read for everyone living west of Berlin as it's very well structured, deeply insightful about the Baltic Sea region (including Baltic states and the Nordics), and is forward-looking in its rigorous analysis of today's geopolitical situation on the European continent. Oh, and it's a lot more factual than anything you'd read in mass media these days.
„Heute führt das Ringen zwischen Russland und dem Westen nicht nur dazu, dass die Länder an der Ostsee so eng zusammenwachsen wie nie zuvor; es rückt diesen traditionell eher peripheren Teil Europas auch in den Mittelpunkt des Geschehens.“ (Zitat Pos. 9761-9771)
Thema und Inhalt Dieses Buch wurde Anfang 2024 geschrieben, teilweise überarbeitet im Oktober 2024, und bietet einen aktuellen Blick auf die heutige Situation der Ostsee und der Staaten, die sie umgeben. Konkret geht es um Estland, Finnland, Lettland, Dänemark, Polen, Deutschland, Litauen und um die wichtige Bedeutung dieser Ostseestaaten, sowie eines engen Zusammenschlusses und eines gemeinsamen Vorgehens derselben. Ein eigenes Kapitel beschäftigt sich mit dem Verhältnis zwischen Polen und Deutschland. Der Autor hinterfragt auch die Beweggründe und Sichtweisen von Präsident Putin und seinen Beratern, und zeigt auf, wie weit im Hintergrund bereits diverse Aktivitäten wie Cyberangriffe und elektronische Störaktionen laufen. Ein weiteres Thema sind Expertenanalysen zu der drängenden Frage, ob Russland bereit ist, einen offenen Krieg mit der NATO zu riskieren, und mögliche Formen einer tatsächlichen kriegerischen Auseinandersetzung.
Umsetzung Der Inhalt ist in drei große Teile gegliedert. Die Teile I und Teil II umfassen sieben Kapitel, in deren Mittelpunkt jeweils eines der Länder steht. Einem Rückblick auf die jeweilige Geschichte und den Kampf um die Unabhängigkeit folgt eine Analyse von Politik, Wirtschaft, Umwelt, Zukunftsprojekten, und bereits bestehenden Beziehungen mit Nachbarländern. Es ist ein Versuch, die immer noch wenig bekannten Länder des Baltikums besser zu verstehen und die Möglichkeiten zu erkennen, die sich daraus ergeben. „Wenn es einen Weg aus der gegenwärtigen Vertrauens- und Sinnkrise gibt, dann werden ihn diese Länder weisen.“ (Zitat Pos. 5495) Die intensiv recherchierten Fakten werden durch zahlreiche Zitate aus Gesprächen mit Experten aus diversen Fachbereichen und mit wichtigen Persönlichkeiten aus der Politik ergänzt, aber auch die Meinungen von den Menschen, die im jeweiligen Land leben, wurden in persönlichen Begegnungen erfragt. Teil III beginnt mit einem eigenen Kapitel über das Verhältnis Polen-Deutschland. Der nächste Abschnitt beschäftigt sich mit der Sichtweise Russlands, Putins ungebrochenem Interesse am Ostseeraum, mit den schon länger im Hintergrund gestarteten Aktivmaßnahmen. In den drei anschließenden, letzten Kapiteln des Buches geht es um die Wichtigkeit und Bereitschaft der NATO, die Fähigkeit und Entschlossenheit sich zu verteidigen deutlich zu zeigen, und Moskau durch ein entsprechendes Verhalten auch davon zu überzeugen.
Fazit „Die beste Möglichkeit, einen Krieg zu verhindern, ist das unzweifelhafte Potenzial, einen Krieg zu gewinnen.“ (Zitat Pos. 9647) Dem Autor ist klar, dass sich die Leser und Leserinnen auf Grund der Aussagen und Argumente, besonders in Bezug auf eine tatsächliche militärische Auseinandersetzung, eine eigene Meinung bilden werden, die nicht unbedingt mit seinen Schlussfolgerungen übereinstimmen muss. Gerade deshalb bietet dieses lesenswerte Buch neben wichtigen, wissenswerten Informationen und einer klar formulierten, sehr präzise und spannend geschriebenen, umfassenden Analyse der Situation der Ostseestaaten auch reichlich Stoff zum weiteren Nachdenken.
A super interesting, well-researched and well written book exploring the nine countries surrounding the Baltic Sea and the Gulf of Finland — Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, Poland, Sweden, Germany, Denmark, and Russia — where a hybrid war is unfolding. Moody conducted dozens of in-depth interviews — not just from a geopolitical angle, but also capturing the human experience — with journalists, politicians, diplomats, and writers to paint a nuanced picture of developments across the region. He covers a broad spectrum of themes, from defense and education to energy & environment, while offering insight into what Putin's strategic ambitions really are in this part of Europe - which, he argues, is the new forefront of Europe's defence line and hence the center of European attention. For the chapter titled "Imperium of Hopelessness", Moody consulted a wide range of Russian sources, providing a rare glimpse into the internal logic and despair of the Kremlin’s worldview. The book concludes with a somewhat sober reflection on NATO’s readiness to defend the region in the face of rising tensions in the context of article 5.
A tour of the countries bordering the Baltic Sea (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Finland, Denmark, Germany) and the histories shaped under the shadow of Soviet domination. The war in Ukraine has reshaped Germany’s energy relationship with Russia and how the Baltic States continue to forge their own path to escape the orbit of Russia. One must not discount the possibility of war with NATO and Russia over the Baltic States and the West needs to be prepared for this eventuality and heed the examples of the Baltic States whose survival is not always a given.
Well researched, level headed analysis of the region. Moody captures the details and intricacies of Baltic geopolitics, dispelling romantic and overblown narratives projected onto the region by outsiders (noting this book is written by an outsider, albeit a English language European correspondent). His analysis of the Russian threat could be read as hawkish by those on the populist right, but his reflections are considered and caveated by the acknowledgement of the still unknown. Essential reading on the subject.
For a book that covers history, social tensions and war across several countries, it has a prose that is surprising fluid to read.
Although the author here and there gives his own opinions, they are always marked as such. And it never shies away from pointing out problems and negative aspects that we have on this side of the war. Overall I was left with a bitter-sweet taste, which I suspect was the author's intention.
3,75 sanoisin! Hyvin jäsennelty mun mielestä ja lähteet on merkattu tarkasti (en kyllä kertaakaa jaksanu tarkistaa lol) mutta ajankohtasista aiheista kirjottaminen ei oikee toimi koskaa tääkin on mun mielest osittain jo vähä vanhentunu
Eerste 200 blz. zijn nogal anekdotisch met een oppervlakkige geschiedenis van elke Baltische staat. Nadien wordt het wat interessanter, maar het is vooral een bespreking van discussies die je ook in de media vindt.