Wie Diktatoren stürzen: und wie Demokraten siegen können

by Marcel Dirsus, Sylvia Bieker (Translator), Henriette Zeltner (Translator)

Alle Diktatoren und Autokraten stürzen irgendwann. Dieses Buch zeigt warum und wie – und was wir daraus lernen können.

Überall auf der Welt sind Demokratien unter Druck, überall entstehen Autokratien und Diktaturen. Die Herrscher inszenieren sich als harte Männer, die stark sind und unbesiegbar. Aber sie alle scheitern. Denn Alleinherrschaften haben Systemfehler – sie können nicht auf Dauer funktionieren.

Manchmal sind es Mitglieder des inneren Machtzirkels, manchmal ist es das Militär, manchmal erheben sich die Massen, weil sie genug haben von Korruption und falschen Entscheidungen, manchmal sind es Oppositionelle, die aus dem Exil einen Umsturz planen. Tyrannen haben immer mehr Feinde als Freunde – und das Ende ihrer Herrschaft ist oft Exil, Gefängnis, Tod. Wie sie stürzen hat große Auswirkungen auf den weiteren Gang der Geschichte.

Marcel Dirsus zeigt in diesem glänzend geschriebenen Buch, welche Faktoren zum Ende von Alleinherrschaften führen. Seine Forschung beruht unter anderem auf Gesprächen mit Anführern von Revolutionen, mit Rebellen und Soldaten auf der ganzen Welt. Er blickt ins Innerste der Gewalt und schildert minutiös die entscheidenden Momente, in denen Tyrannen die Macht verlieren. Anhand von Beispielen aus der Gegenwart und Geschichte entwickelt er eine Systematik, die es erlaubt, den Mechanismus der Macht zu verstehen.

Genres: Politics, Nonfiction, History, War, Audiobook, Current Affairs, German Literature

306 pages, Kindle Edition

First published July 18, 2024

Reviews

[Darya Silman · Rating 5 out of 5]

In his HOW TYRANTS FALL: AND HOW NATIONS SURVIVE, Marcel Dirsus answers three questions: how tyrants operate to stay in power, what can unseat a tyrant, and, most importantly, whether a tyrant should be toppled. The author backs his conclusions with statistical data from the last two hundred years, dissecting examples of tyrannies across the globe, from Madagascar's Ranavalona The Cruel in the 19th century to modern-day Russia. He distinguishes three types of tyrannies: personal dictatorship, military dictatorship, and one-state countries. The way these three types of tyrannies function determines their longevity and means to their end.

The author couldn't have done a better job at structuring the material. Chapters, each focused on a single topic (for example, armed rebellions or tyrannicide), organically flow into each other: clever cliffhangers like 'we'll talk about this in the next chapter' do their trick. I had difficulty scribbling down the names of dictators while listening to an audiobook, but the vast collection of new facts/new information was worth my efforts. Thomas Lubando Dyilo, Francisco Macias Nguema, Kwame Nkrumah - and the list can go on for ... not ever, of course, but for a very long time. A philosophical, detached approach enables readers of all political views to observe the tyranny's inner workings without judgment.

Being relatively short, HOW TYRANTS FALL is a fascinating feat of informative facts and fancies, suitable for the general audience. For me personally, it was the most engaging book of 2024.

(Thanks to spoko, I also read the author's article on the likely political future of Russia - link .)

[Mircea Petcu · Rating 5 out of 5]

Poate un dictator să renunțe la putere și să democratizeze țara
Dacă în cursul dictaturii a omorât sau furat, într-o democrație, riscă să fie judecat și condamnat. Chiar dacă își asumă acest risc, cei din cercul apropiat al puterii vor încerca să prevină transferul de putere printr-o lovitură de stat, pentru a-și păstra privilegiile. O soluție mai sigură este exilul într-o țară prietenoasă, deși nici aceasta nu este lipsită de riscuri. O demonstrează cazul fostului președinte al Liberiei, Charles Taylor, supranumit "Măcelarul din Monrovia", care a primit azil politic în Nigeria pentru ca mai târziu să fie extrădat la presiunea internațională în Marea Britanie. În prezent execută o pedeapsă de 50 de ani de închisoare la HM Prison Frankland.

Cum previne un dictator loviturile de stat
Cum cele mai multe lovituri de stat sunt date de militari, dictatorii aleg să slăbească armata prin "contrabalansare": armata este împărțită în mai multe părți aflate în competiție. O parte din armată este însărcinată special cu protecția dictatorului și a regimului - de exemplu, Garda Republicană a lui Saddam Hussein. Trupele din aceste unități sunt de obicei mai bine echipate și remunerate. Astfel, dacă armata vrea să dea o lovitură de stat știe că are de înfruntat trupele loiale regimului. Dar slăbirea armatei poate face țara vulnerabilă în cazul unei invazii din partea altul stat. Dictatorii trebuie să facă un compromis între securitatea internă și cea externă. Soluții la această dilemă pot fi obținerea protecției unui alt stat sau achiziția bombei nucleare. E greu de crezut că puciștii vor folosi bomba nucleară împotriva propiei capitale, în schimb, orice tanc al armatei poate fi folosit împotriva tiranului.

Dictatorii și revoltele populare
În caz de revoltă populară, dictatorii recurg la "legea acțiunii coercitive": la represiune. Spirala escaladare-represiune poate duce la căderea regimului. Mai convenabil pentru dictator este să nu se ajungă la proteste, prin folosirea propagandei, supravegherii și a represiunii. Kim Jong Un nu-și face griji că vor fi proteste în Phenian.
Când cel puțin 3,5% din populație protestează pașnic, cel mai probabil tiranul se va prăbuși.

Recomand

[Trudie · Rating 3 out of 5]

I picked this book up after listening to the author speak engagingly at the recent Auckland Writers Festival. My attention has been drawn recently towards books on authoritarian regimes and a book titled How Tyrants Fall seemed timely.
I should caveat this by saying I don't often read and review non-fiction and even less so books on Political Science. Marcel Dirsus has a doctorate in political science focused on irregular regime changes and has spent time in the Democratic Republic of Congo. It is obvious he knows he stuff and is adept at demystifying political jargon. The book is full of illuminating examples of how various tyrants came to be toppled or managed to survive to die of old age at 95. In some lights it almost reads as a "how to" manual for prospective tyrants : create a parallel military, throw money and favours at the small group of elites that keep you in power, eliminate your opposition, get some Russian mercenaries in to quell any uprisings ... I learnt a lot ;)
As interesting as all this is, this book is not as well structured as I could hope, its a little repetitive and occasionally has the whiff of the textbook around it. I am not sure Dirsus has quite perfected his style yet but as this is his first book that is perfectly reasonable.
Did this reading experience leave me with hope that tyrants can fall ......? Yes, eventually ? Its a long term game of success and failure followed by change that can result in an even worse situation, followed eventually by success - see The French Revolution.

[Jyotsna · Rating 4 out of 5]

Rating - 4.5 stars
NPS - 10 (Promoter)

Tyrants can’t keep everyone happy to maintain their grip on power, they usually need to steal from the masses and distribute the gains to insiders of the regime, such as the generals, oligarchs, and rival politicians. If they don’t, they can easily be toppled by palace elites or their own groups. But if they do, the neglected overlook masses of the land might rise up, and when that happens, the despots who don’t pay enough attention to threats outside the capital can be taken by surprise.

A great, well researched read on how dictators hold onto power and tyrannise the people of their country. It discusses about the persona a tyrant is, with examples of the real world, and how he stays in power.

It also provides tips on how to strike down a dictatorship and how have coups impacted countries so far.

Broken people become tyrants, and then tyranny can break them further. Many dictators come to office with experiences that profoundly distort their review of reality.

My two problems with the book are as follows -

1. It tends to put democracy on a pedestal, not acknowledging that a democracy can also harbour an individual with extraordinary power.

2. The lens of the book is toooo global north - the bias is observed right through the pages.

But, don’t let my problems bother you - this is a really good and informative read.

[BK · Rating 5 out of 5]

This is an exceptional book that illuminates the world of dictators and despots in engaging, accessible prose, based on rigorous research. Dirsus sweeps across history, all regions of the world, and smashes a myth that too many people believe - that dictators are somehow invincible. Instead, he shows their fragility and how every day they try to figure out how to stay in power, making a series of trade offs to placate their enemies. In the process, Dirsus writes about how we might be able to worsen their fragility and make life harder for the Putins and Kims of the world. If you’re interested in tyrants, authoritarian regimes, and making the world more democratic, this is a brilliant book.

[Christina · Rating 4 out of 5]

The timing on this one was just right. There was a real-life, real-time demonstration of how autocratic regimes can end happening as I was reading this book. Bashar al-Assad finally lost his grip on Syria, and had to flee to Russia. About a month later, his former backer and fellow autocrat, Vladimir Putin, declared that Syria had been a victory for Russia, even though it was obvious the Russian navy had lost access to Syrian ports, and their troops had to flee with Assad.

As Marcel Dirsus explains, it's the logic of the system that both supports and traps tyrants and their autocratic regimes. While Putin's statements sound crazy to anyone following the international news outside Russia, it's a part a dictator like Putin has to play. He's not only projecting that he's powerful enough to define reality (within Russia), but he's denying the possibility that he's ended up on the losing side. After the United States' chaotic withdrawals from Vietnam and Afghanistan, no government official ended up imprisoned, overthrown, or executed. Some may have lost a job, some may have lost elections, but their lives and careers went on as usual. Putin doesn't have such options. A hint of anything less than absolute strength and power, and there are plenty who would gladly replace him, much like what happened to Assad. He's at the top of a very unforgiving system. Some—Generalissimo Francisco Franco, Joseph Stalin, François 'Papa Doc' Duvalier, Bashar Al-Assad's own father Hafez—manage to die of old age while still in power. But they had to stay in power until they died. For most, their exit won't be so peaceful. Retirement isn't really an option for tyrants.

In the very first chapter, Dirsus explains, "Being a dictator is like being stuck on a treadmill that one can never get off." So why would anyone want this job, since it's impossible to leave office peacefully and alive? Money, mostly. Dictators and their governments don't serve their citizens or countries; they serve themselves and their close supporters. Politicians in democracies can earn wealth, but dictators have access to the state coffers. There's little in the way of rules or laws that prevent them from the worst abuses of corruption. "That's a pretty big incentive to ascend the treadmill. But the treadmill is relentless."

This is an informative book. It is also adamantly readable. Dirsus' writing is well organized and conversational in tone. He cites many examples from across history and the globe, so it's not just focused on 20th-century Europe. As he points out in the Introduction, dictatorships, in one form or another, were the most common form of human government for most of our history. Even with all those case studies, he also says that studying dictatorships, and their ends, is far from simple, since they function behind opaque walls of secrecy. Every tyrant and their country is different, but there are some commonalities to the systems that keep the tyrants in power. Each chapter looks at a single topic that dictatorships must deal with to keep going. It's quite the balancing act, especially for the guy at the top. (They're almost always guys.)


NASA satellite photo of the Korean Peninsula at night, 2012. This sort of data can be used as a proxy for economic activity, since dictatorships tend to lie about their lack of prosperity. Source

For instance, chapter 2 addresses how a dictator needs a strong military on his side so no one will challenge him. Make the military too strong, however, and various officers might start to get ideas of taking the top job for themselves. Or, if the military decides to no longer back the dictator, his days are numbered. Nicolae Ceaușescu is one of the excellent examples Dirsus provides of a tyrant swiftly losing control, and the military switching their support to the revolutionaries. In November 1989, the Romanian Communist Party re-elected Ceaușescu as their party leader for another five years. Less than a month later he and his wife were overthrown, tried and executed. Unlike Assad, he didn't manage to get out of the country in time. However, Ceausescu had already lost credibility days earlier, when he ordered those forces to fire on protesters. Popular uprisings are covered in chapter 6.

Dirsus tells us how different dictatorships have different weaknesses, and how those will often predict how they're likely to end. He looks at what condition rebellions need to succeed, or just hang on. He also looks at what can happen when dictatorships collapse, and if it's something countries should try. There's always the chance things will get better and even democratize, but then again, there may just be a new dictator. My one nit to pick is lack of an index.

See also:
The Collapse: The Accidental Opening of the Berlin Wall, by Mary Elise Sarotte, which chronicles the final days of the East German DDR government and the fall of the Berlin Wall. Dirsus used this book as one of his sources.

[Mewa · Rating 4 out of 5]

Dokładnie tej porcji wiedzy teraz potrzebowałam.

[مروة الجزائري · Rating 4 out of 5]

قراءة في كتاب كيف يسقط الطغاة وكيف تنجو الأمم
بقلم: مروة الجزائري
«إن سقوط طاغية لا يُفضي بالضرورة إلى صعود الديمقراطية، بل قد يكون الممرَّ المُظلم إلى جحيمٍ جديدٍ تمامًا».
«كيف يسقط الطغاة وكيف تنجو الأمم» لا يروج لفكرة إسقاط الطغاة عبر الثورات فحسب، بل يتجاوزها إلى مقاربةٍ أعمق: إذ يرى أن الطغيان لا ينهار حين يسقط الجسد، بل حين تتفكك بنيته الإدراكية في وعي الجماهير. هو عمل تحليلي يستبطن ديناميكيات الحكم الاستبدادي، ويسلط الضوء على هشاشتها الكامنة، كاشفًا عن الاستراتيجيات الفعّالة لتفكيكها، مع تركيز لافت على أهمية الحراك السلمي، والتغييرِ الداخلي المدعوم بجهود المجتمع المدني والضغط الدولي المتزن.
يستعرض ديرسوس مراحل صعود الطغاة إلى ذروة قوتهم، حين يتجلون في صورة قادةٍ لا يُقهرون. ويفكّك الأدوات التي تعزز استبدادهم، بدءًا من السيطرة على الإعلام، مرورًا بتهميش المعارضة، ووصولًا إلى احتكار الرمزية الوطنيّة. ويكشف كيف أنّ الخوف من ما بعد التنحّي—من النفي، أو السجن، أو الموت—يدفعهم إلى التمسك بالسلطة، حتى تصبح الغاية الوحيدة، لا وسيلة. هذا المنطق هو ما يدفعهم إلى التصعيد القمعيّ، وتكثيف الممارسات الوحشيّة كلّما شعروا بأن الأرض تميد تحت أقدامهم. ولكن أخطر التهديدات تأتيهم من داخل دوائرهم المقربة، حيث يُظهر الكاتب أن العديد من الديكتاتوريين سقطوا بفعل خيانة من داخل نظامهم، مما يعكس أهمية الولاء الداخلي. بلا شك، لا يمكن تجاهل القوى الخارجية وتدخلاتها، ومدى تأثير العقوبات على استقرار الأنظمة الاستبدادية.

تميز الكتاب بقوة الطرح، واستند إلى تقاطعات بين الفلسفة السياسية، وعلم الاجتماع، وتحليل الخطاب، مبتعدًا عن الخطاب الشعبوي دون أن يُغفل إيمانه بإمكانية التغيير. واستعرض بمهارة أمثلة تاريخية: من سقوط هتلر، إلى القذافي، وموغابي، وتشاوشيسكو، وصدام حسين، وموسوليني الذي لم يسقط إلا بثمن حربٍ عالميّة، ليبين تعقيد إزالة الفاشيات المتجذرة.

ورغم هذه القوة، يُسجَّل على الكتاب خللٌ في مقاربته الجيوسياسية: فقد انشغل بالأنظمة التقليدية في أفريقيا والشرق الأوسط وأوروبا الشرقية، متجنبًا النظر إلى السلطويات المقنّعة في دول تجري انتخابات وتحافظ على واجهات ديمقراطية، لكنّ جوهرها ينزلق ببطء نحو التآكل—مثلما حدث في أمريكا، أو البرازيل، أو الهند في فترات معينة. كان بوسعه أن يثري أطروحاته لو ناقش هذه الأنظمة التي تتسلل فيها السلطوية عبر مؤسسات شرعية مثل الانتخابات، والقوانين، والمحاكم. مثل هذه الأنظمة، التي تبدو ديمقراطية ظاهريًا، قد تعرض الطغيان بشكل معاصر، وتضيف بُعدًا مهمًا للكتاب.
عندما يبلغ الطغاة نقطة اللاعودة، تغلقُ كلّ المخارجِ، ولا يبقى سوى طريقٍ واحد: التشبّثُ حتى النهاية، لأنّ الرحيلَ يعني الاندثار. ونتيجة لهذا اليأس، يتبنى الطاغية عقلية «أنا ومن بعدي الطوفان»، فيلجأ إلى تصعيد القمع الوحشي للمتظاهرين، وتكميم الإعلام، وتصفية المعارضين. غير أن المفارقةَ القاتلة هي أنّ هذا القمع لا يُطيلُ أعمارَ الطغاة، بل يُسرّع نهايتهم.

يؤكد الكاتب أن الأنظمة التي لا تُوفّر مخرجًا آمنًا للطاغية، إنما تزرعُ قنابلَ موقوتة في تربة المستقبل. فحين يُختزل مصير الدولة بمصير رجلٍ واحد، يصبحُ سقوطه كارثةً شاملة لأنه سيقاتل حتى الرمق الأخير، ولو دمّر الدولة في سبيل ذلك.
«حين لا تترك للطغاة مخرجًا، لا تتفاجأ إن دمّروا الجسرَ خلفهم.»

ماذا عن العواقب غير المقصودة التي قد تلي الإطاحة بطاغية؟
كثيرًا ما يُنظر إلى سقوط الطغاة على أنه نهاية المأساة وبداية عصر جديد من الحرية والديمقراطية. لكن ديرسوس يحذّر من أن نهاية الطاغية لا تعني بالضرورة ولادةَ الحرية. بل قد تكون بداية لفوضى جديدة، أو نسخة أكثر دهاءً من الاستبداد. حين ينهار النظام، يتخلّف وراءه فراغٌ سياسيّ، لا تُملأ بالضرورة بقوى ديمقراطية، بل قد تتسلل إليه ميليشيات، أو أمراء حرب، أو شعبويون جدد يتقنون اللعب على وتر الجماهير.

يركّز الكتاب على العطب البنيويّ الذي يُخلّفه الطغيان: فالمؤسسات الدستورية—من برلمانٍ، وقضاء، وإعلام، وحتى الجيش—تُهمَّش عمدًا ليبقى الزعيم بلا منازع. وبعد أفوله، تجد هذه المؤسسات نفسها عاجزةً عن قيادة المرحلة الانتقاليّة. يُضاف إلى ذلك الانقسامات المذهبيّة أو العرقيّة التي تُكبت في زمن الطاغية، وتنفجرُ بقسوة بعد رحيله. أمّا المعارضة، فغالبًا ما تكون منقسمة، عديمة الخبرة، أو حتى غير ديمقراطية في جوهرها.
«ليس كلّ مَنْ يعارض الطغيان ديمقراطيًّا».
ويتناول الكتاب دور التدخلات الأجنبية في هذا السياق، مشيرًا إلى أنّ بعضها يدعم إعادة البناء، بينما يُفاقمُ بعضها الآخر الفوضى، مستغلًّا اللحظة لتحقيق مصالحه. وهنا يُشدّد على أنّ إسقاط الطغاة لا يجب أن يتمّ بلا رؤيةٍ لما بعد السقوط، فإلا تحوّل الانتصار إلى كارثة. لا بدّ من إعداد الأرض لبناء مؤسساتٍ قويّة، ورأب الشروخ الداخلية، وضمانِ مشاركة حقيقيّة للقوى الديمقراطيّة.
«إسقاطُ الطاغية خُطوة، لكن النجاح الحقيقيّ يبدأ بما يليها».

من أبرز أطروحات الكتاب:
- هشاشةُ الأنظمة الديكتاتورية.
- الطاغية بوصفه خيالًا جماعيًّا: ليس مجرّد فرد، بل تجلٍّ لثقافة تعيد إنتاج الخضوع، وتُقدّس الزعامة، وتختزل الوطن في شخص الحاكم. حين تُصبح الطاعة طقسًا ثقافيًّا، يترسّخ الطغيان كإيمانوجماعيّ لا كسلطة مفروضة.
- هندسةُ الصمت: يتوسّع الكاتب في توصيف المجتمعات التي تُدار بالصمت لا بالقمع فقط. المواطن الذي يشيح بوجهه عن الظلم، والمثقف الذي يُساير خوفًا أو طمعًا، كلّهم يشكّلون جدران الطغيان ولو دون وعي.
إنها «جمهوريّة الخوف من السؤال»، لا الخوف من الجواب.

الخلاصة:
الكتاب رائعٌ كتشريحٍ دقيق لسقوط الطغاة «التقليديّين»، لكنه يفتقر إلى عدسةٍ أوسع ترى السلطويّة المتخفّية داخل أنظمةٍ تبدو ديمقراطيّة. لم يُعالج الكاتب دور البُعد الاقتصادي، كالتحالفات الماليّة، والفساد المنظّم، والاحتقان الطبقيّ، في تفجير لحظات التغيير.
كما غلبَ على الكتاب صوت النخب التحليليّة، على حساب الروايات الشخصيّة لمن صنعوا التغيير بدمائهم، وشجاعتهم، وعنائهم..

تحياتي
مروة الجزائري 🌻

[Tylkotrocheczytam · Rating 4 out of 5]

Nawet bym dała 4,5 ⭐️
Bardzo dobra, jedna z moich ulubionych książek non-fiction od teraz. Czyta się świetnie, przykłady są fajnie wprowadzone i niby niektóre rzeczy się wydają oczywiste, ale jakoś nie wpadłam na nie wcześniej.

Cytując Michelle Gurevich:
„Goodbye, my dictator, goodbye
'Cause everybody knows it's time
You've had more than your share of pie”

[Erik · Rating 5 out of 5]

Har man minst to kilder bak en påstand økes sjansen for å presentere en sann påstand betraktelig, gitt at kildene er noenlunde sannferdige.

Dette lærte jeg i min korte karriere som journalist, og jeg var derfor ikke i tvil da både ChatGPT og Google Gemini landet på at dette skulle være neste innslag i min "tyrann spessial".

De to brukte riktignok samme kilde: bloggen Encyclopedia Geopoliticas liste over bøker man bør lese i 2025.

Dermed er vi strengt tatt tilbake på én kilde. I slike tilfeller kan vi journalister bruke vår journalistiske ryggmargsrefleks, noe vi gjør med blandet hell (Tore Strømøy og Bamsegutt-saken, eller Mads Bugges fantastiske "Den Sorte Svane").

Anbefaleren til boka har ph.d. i spionasje, og forfatteren av boka har ph.d. i tyrannier. Ryggmargsrefleksen konkluderer med at kilden er god nok til å stå alene.

Presseetikk til side: dette er en strålende bok.

Forrige innslag i tyrann spessial var et optimistisk kamprop om hvordan vi snille mennesker kan vinne over de slemme.

Her har vi en oppsummering av empirisk forskning på tyrannier, der leseren får en mer balansert, men til syvende og sist optimistisk innføring i tyrannbekjempelse som fag.

Ville historier om haitiske diktatorer og voodoodokker etterfølges av empirisk funderte tips for attentater og opprør, skrevet på en tørrvittig måte. Boka er enkelt og greit skikkelig underholdende, og full av ting jeg ikke visste jeg lurte på.

[Rajiv Chopra · Rating 3 out of 5]

"How Tyrants Fall and How Nations Survive," by Marcel Dirsus, is a good but imperfect book.
The key lies in the word tyrant, which precludes nations run by tyrannical leaders or regimes, while officially democratic have become authoritarian.
Critical omissions include India (becoming authoritarian), Israel, and even many European and American 'democracies' where leaders are cracking down on pro-Palestine protests. The frequent crackdowns on 'free speech' and 'liberal values' are hardly the stuff of a proper democracy!
These omissions weaken the book but allow him to focus on familiar figures like Saddam Hussein, Putin, the Kim family, China, etc. The examples quoted are familiar to anyone who follows the career trajectory of tyrants and does not stand out from the crowd.
I would have also liked him to analyze the Singapore government, which is not a democracy but one that delivers excellent services to its citizens. Do you need a democracy to enjoy your life? The book would be richer if he answered the question I just asked
After my opening criticism, I'd like to focus on the book's positive aspects. Marcus Dirsus analyses the stratagems authoritarians use to stay in power, how they play the power game, their insecurities, and how citizens or rivals topple them.
His point about the greater efficacy of a peaceful citizen revolution versus an armed uprising is well-taken. A violent upheaval often creates another dictatorial regime.
How do nations survive dictators? The book does not provide easy answers to this question.
One lesson you must take from the book is this: violence begets violence; fire fuels fire; hate builds on hate – so, if you want a healthier, peaceful, stable country, a peaceful citizen's revolution is the best bet.
Tyrants fear citizens' protests, and citizens never forget violent crackdowns: something the Communist Party of China must never forget, nor should modern so-called 'democratic, liberal' governments in the West.

[Pete · Rating 4 out of 5]

How Tyrants Fall: And How Nations Survive (2024) by Marcel Dirsus is a book that looks at the fascinating way in which tyrants try to stay in power. Dirus is a political scientist who writes a newsletter and is also associated with Kiel university.

Dirsus worked in the Democratic Republic of Congo and got a taste for what happens when a dictator is challenged or falls. He then returned to academia and started studying the question.

The book considers what tyrants have to consider as they want to stay in power. It also considers what happens should they leave power. Dirsus also ponders whether countries should try and topple dictators.

The book does a great job of taking an approach that makes the reader consider how a tyrant needs to stay in power and how things can go wrong. In particular Dirsus writes about how tyrants need their own security forces, but have to be very careful that those security forces don’t become too powerful and remove the tyrant. Similarly the way tyrants need to pay people and if possible not destroy the economy but also, again, avoiding rich or even middle class people becoming powerful enough to topple them.

The book is replete with a lot of data from academic studies that Dirsus refers to. People have assessed how tyrants around the world have fallen. Dirsus points out that tyrants are often replaced with another tyrant. It is not that common that a tyrant is replaced with a better system. But it does happen.

It’s a bit surprising that the book didn’t mention South America more, where in 1975 3 out 4 people lived in an authoritarian country while today 84% of Latin Americans live in some sort of democracy. This was a huge decline in dictatorships. The same has not happened in Africa.

How Tyrants Fall is an excellent book on an important topic. Like the book Dictatorland about Africa it is very much worth reading.

[Daniel · Rating 5 out of 5]

Tyrants are powerful, but they are constantly afraid - of being ousted by the elites around them. So they need to have their own guards besides the normal army. Sometimes even their family (even heir) would oust them. Sometimes they need to have people watching each other. But who watch the watchers?

Tyrants who concentrate all power to themselves cause chaos when they die. Party dictatorships are much more stable because there is usually a system of succession. Assassination poses particular problems. Usually one is replaced by another tyrant.

If a dictator falls by peaceful means, there is a higher chance of peaceful transition to democracy. Civil war usually ends in another dictatorship…

It is highly dangerous to meddle with other countries, to topple their dictators. High cost in money and lives. And the locals may not appreciate the foreign forces at all.

A very enlightening book!

[sincerely.leoni࿚ˋ°•*⁀➷ · Rating 4 out of 5]

Engaging and captivating! Marcel Dirsus encourages with his writing style to engage in the brief but thourough history lesson about the tyrants motives and what to consider in the event and dynamics of authorinian regimes.

Not only do you get the psychological perspective of the tyrants, the elites around them, coup plotters and forgein leaders in those whole dynamics, but also historical examples even from recent years.

[Diana Daniker · Rating 3 out of 5]

this book was definitely worth reading and opened my eyes to a lot of aspects I had never thought about and that I will probably soon look up.
At the same time, I found myself in a reading slump during the middle of the book, it seemed kind of unfocused and up to the end some things became repetitive, like argument that had been made three chapters earlier being explained again. This book also brought up a lot of examples, which made it easy to understand, but I equally felt like I should have a wikipedia tab open next to me to understand all the different people brought up.
I still think that I learned a lot of interesting things from this book and would recommend it, but maybe with skipping some parts if you get bored.

[MSooji · Rating 4 out of 5]

در توصیف این کتاب به جمله‌ای از خودش اشاره می‌کنم: «بخش بزرگی از حقیقت همچنان پنهان مانده است و آنچه به نظر می‌رسد «چشم‌اندازی کامل» است در واقع فقط بخش کوچکی از تصویری بزرگ است.» کوتاه اینکه دنیای دیکتاتورها، در عین سادگی ظاهری، این‌قدر پیچیده و تودرتوئه که طبیعتاً توصیفش تو یه کتاب ۲۰۰صفحه‌ای نمی‌گنجه. با این حال، کتاب نقاط کور متعددی رو کاویده و به زوایای تاریک زیادی نور تابونده و در این حد رسالت خودشو به‌خوبی انجام داده. حین خوندن کتاب احساسات مختلفی از خشم، اندوه، غربت، شادی، رنج، سرخوشی و... رو تجربه کردم. این کتاب به‌زودی با ترجمهٔ «مصطفی دهقان» از نشر «وزن دنیا» منتشر می‌شه.
In the description of this book, I refer to a sentence of his own: "A large part of the truth remains hidden, and what seems to be a "full vision" is actually only a small part of a big picture." In short, the world of dictators, despite its apparent simplicity, is so complex and nested that it naturally cannot be described in a 200-page book. However, the book has explored many blind spots and shed light on many dark corners, and to this extent, it has fulfilled its mission well. While reading the book, I experienced various emotions of anger, sadness, homelessness, joy, suffering, euphoria, etc.

[Itay · Rating 3 out of 5]

אם הייתי יכול או צריך להמליץ על ספר אחד בלבד בנושא להדיוט, זה ככל הנראה יהיה הספר הזה. מרסל דירסוס חקר רודנים במשך שנים והספר הוא עיסה לעוסה של מחקרים אקדמאים המונגשים בצורה פופולארית וחושפים מכנה משותף של רודנים ברחבי העולם ולאורך ההיסטוריה.
דא עקא, התובנות של שנות המחקר הרבות הן אותן תובנות שאני הגעתי אליהן רק מלקרוא עיתונים מידי פעם, ואני מניח שהקורא החציוני שיודע דבר או שניים על פוליטיקה כבר הבין לבדו את הצורך של הדיקטטורים להקים מספר גופי ביטחון מתחרים ומוחלשים, לפגוע בעוצמת הצבא שלו, למנוע בכוח הפגנות שמערערות את תפיסת היציבות של שלטונו, להקים משטרה חשאית, להישען על רודנים אחרים או להיות בעל ערך למעצמות בינלאומיות, או כל תמהיל של הגורמים שהזכרתי. אין פה חוכמה נסתרת או רגעי "וואו", וכמו רוב ספרי הnon fiction היום, גם זה היה יכול להיות מאמר במקום ספר.

[Povilas · Rating 5 out of 5]

Surprising book. It is like a handbook for future dictator, what to do to stay in power as long as possible! Plenty of real life examples on how coup d’etats worked or not. How internal or external reasons threatens dictator, how close enough people surrounding dictator are actually most dangerous, how country’s military can topple leader etc etc. How countries that experienced coup in past are very prone to new coup. Book is up to date to the latest events (russian invasion to Ukraine).

[Ron Ellenbogen · Rating 5 out of 5]

Very interesting review about how dictators stay in power, how they fall and what happens in the aftermath. For citizens of democracies that are struggling today with a leader who wants to dismantle the institutions of democracy, this book is less actionable, but it does provide an essential context of what happens when the efforts to stop that leader fail and the state turns into a dictatorship.

[po.czytane · Rating 3 out of 5]

3.5

[Gizaw Legesse · Rating 4 out of 5]

I only hope all tyrants don’t read.

As much as this book gives a comprehensive understanding of tyrants for readers, it’s even more riskier to let it out like this. Because it could also present a lesson to tyrants. Not to transform to democrats, because they never will, but to best survive as tyrant. That’s why I really hope all tyrants don’t read!

[Gab · Rating 4 out of 5]

4.5

[David Jenkin · Rating 5 out of 5]

should be compulsory reading for everyone concerned about the currsnt state of the world.

[Doron Veeder · Rating 3 out of 5]

וואוו, נושא כל כך מעניין, כתוב כל כך לא
לא נגזים, אבל אפשר אפשר היה לחתוך את הספר בחצי ולהינות ממנו לא פחות

[Monika · Rating 4 out of 5]

Do you want to get rid of your autocratic ruler? Or maybe you're a tyrant who needs to know how to defend yourself from a coup?
I have good news, you can find out everything you need from this book!*

*also applicable to history and sociology nerds and people who like well written non-fiction books (that's me)

On a serious note, this book is everything I would expect from it after seeing the title.
The author explains all the ways the tyrants can be removed from their power using historic examples and good research. There's a lot of information in each chapter. Maybe sometimes even too much information? There were a few times I couldn't get myself to finish the chapter.
But overall I found this book really fascinating and will definitely remember some stories.

Thank you to Netgalley for providing me with a digital copy of this book.

[Mohammad Ahsan · Rating 3 out of 5]

The book is well-written and well-researched, covering the governance style of tyrannical regimes, mostly in Africa and Asia, and how tyrants gain power, consolidate it, and eventually lose it, either peacefully or violently. However, at times the author lacks objectivity, as he looks at the entire world with one lens of Western Democracy. He also fails to objectively criticize the West, especially the USA for both covert and overt operations aimed at regime changes across the world, some of which resulted in heavy bloodshed and instability in the country. Iraq is the most glaring example of that misadventure, where the USA first backed Saddam Hussain for years in the war against Iran, and then turned against him and eventually threw him out of power in 2003, post which the country faced a bloody civil war and anarchy, which the US and Western powers couldn’t stop for years.

After reading a few positive reviews of the book and the introduction section, I had high hopes from the book. It is indeed insightful and well-researched but fails to accept the basic truth that not all non-democratic regimes in the world can be termed tyrannical. A democratically elected western politician could well be a tyrant, and we have seen a few in our lifetime. Similarly, labelling a king/emperor ruling a country in the GCC as a tyrant is both unfair and ill-informed. Most importantly, some tyrants manage to perpetuate their rule with the backing of the so-called Western democracies, as they become allies in West led causes and campaigns, such as the infamous “War on Terror”. The author had little to say against those Western democracies.

Dr. Dirsus starts with how dictators in the modern-day fear the end of their rule and equate it to running on a treadmill from which they cannot get off. He says that it is a myth that dictators are all-powerful and maintain an iron grip. The dictators live and rule under a constant fear of being overthrown, either by internal groups or external forces, and hence pursue policies aimed at weakening their enemies. Dictators follow various strategies to maintain their power. They reward civil loyalists with commercial deals, military devotees with promotions and advanced weapons, and foreign allies with unconditional support, both in peace and war. However, a dictator’s rule can end in an instant – an assassination by one’ own bodyguard or a revolt by the public. Dr. Dirsus endorses the Harvard political scientist Erica Chenoweth’s “3.5% rule” according to which if 3.5% of the population participates in mass demonstrations against a tyrant, the end is nigh. He says that violent efforts to suppress a mob usually fail, as if “you shoot, you lose.” A tyrant’s own security forces could refuse to fire at the public and disobey orders. We saw that happening very recently in Bangladesh.

Dr. Dirsus says that tyrants focus on enriching themselves and plunder national wealth. They keep their cronies happy by letting them steal, providing them lucrative government contracts and enriching them with favorable government regulations. The fruits of economic gains are enjoyed by a few and lead to public unrest and discontent. The tyrants sometimes create divisions within the military and favor a group within the armed forces. This strategy risks making the military weaker against an external threat, as Saddam Hussain found in the war against Iran.

Tyrants hate criticism and punish dissent. They surround themselves with yes-men and sycophants, who tell them what they like to hear. This deprives them of honest and useful advice and eventually results in misreading the public pulse. Dr. Dirsus explains through multiple examples how dictators face risky trade-offs with their choices to retain power. While they could succeed for years or even decades, the dictator’s actions weaken his grip on power in the long-term and cause a costly end. According to the book, from 1946 to 2010, 69% of dictators/tyrants were jailed, killed or forced into exile when they lost power.

Who is classified as a tyrant? Dr. Dirsus describes two types of tyrants. First is a leader who uses his power not for the collective good of the community but for personal gain. The second is someone who has taken power without having a right to it. However, in the book he has classified many different rulers as tyrants. An independence leader/founder of a country could end up as a tyrant – Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe is an example. An elected leader (in a democracy) who refuses to stand down and rules for decades by winning (manipulating) elections is a tyrant – current day examples are Vladimir Putin in Russia and Yoweri Museveni in Uganda. A military person who overthrows a civilian government is a tyrant, such as Hugo Chavez of Venezuela and Muammar Gaddafi of Libya. A single party rule in a country where power transfers from one leader to the other is labelled by the author as tyrannical – he has given examples of China and North Korea, which are two opposite extremes in my view. Finally, he terms monarchs of the Gulf as tyrants, which is extremely inaccurate.

Dr. Dirsus talks about how to topple a tyrant in the last chapter. He says that such attempts can backfire and hence require careful planning and smooth execution. He mentions two approaches. One approach is direct, where an external power acts to take out the tyrant, either covertly or overtly. He has given multiple examples of such an approach by the USA – Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua and Iraq are among them. Dr. Dirsus says that the US has tried regime change on 74 occasions and only a third of these attempts have been successful. The second approach is to use tools such as sanctions, boycotts, and embargoes to weaken a tyrant. Dr. Dirsus favors the 2nd approach but acknowledges that it doesn’t always work. He quotes John F. Kennedy, who had once said that you make violent revolution inevitable when you make peaceful revolution impossible.

It is a book for anyone who is interested in history, global political affairs, geo-politics and contrasting governance systems. A bit disappointing though as the author failed to blame western countries for propping tyrannical regimes and inaccurately portrayed some regimes as tyrants.

[Thomas Edmund · Rating 5 out of 5]

How Tyrants Fall

I have to confess that I thought this book was going to read more like a guidebook for ‘good trouble’ and active steps that a citizen might take when faced with tyranny, OR at least more of a values based sociological perspective - and it feels a little bad to critique a book on not meeting my expectations – but I suspect others that look to this tome might be in the same boat. After all the globe is current experiencing a (relatively) unprecedented shift to not just right leaning politics, but highly reductive and dictatorial practices on a crazy scale.

That’s not to say this book isn’t relevant for the now times. It’s just that the focus is almost like a sequel to ‘The Dictators Handbook’ an interesting breakdown of authoritarian governments, just with an extra focus on how ‘Tyrants Fall.’

Also in part maybe I’m also lamenting reality – i.e. that the majority of the time that Tyrants fall is due to other corrupt individual(s) taking over often with violent methods which while fascinating doesn’t feel productive to a sane citizen just trying to preserve democracy. It was very interesting and a little hopeful to learn historically that non-violent resistance is more likely to lead to democratic shifts as opposed to violent.

It also felt like an interventionist perspective was being leaned into despite Dirsus stating that typically citizens within a country determine its fate. To be clear Dirsus was relatively neutral and made statements grounded in effective historical analysis, while also being extremely critical of outside nations interfering with the governance of other nations, BUT at the same time when discussing key ways of defeating tyranny seemed to focus more on external actions rather than what a population could/can do.

That review probably came across at quite chaotic – to conclude, this book is really good, extremely well researched and very interesting. It perhaps not the best book right now for citizens in historically democratic countries wondering how best to manage a swing to tyranny, but still relevant and important nonetheless.

[Stronisko · Rating 4 out of 5]

Warto czasem sięgnąć po książki takie jak “Tyrani. Triumf, władza, upadek” Marcela Dirsusa, żeby docenić to, w jakim kraju żyjemy i że cieszymy się względnie niezachwianą demokracją. Chociaż według wskaźnika demokracji Economist Intelligence Unit nasz kraj zaliczany jest do tzw. demokracji wadliwych, to jednak daleko nam do autorytaryzmu, którego na świecie wprawdzie jest już coraz mniej, ale z którym wciąż boryka się wiele państw naszego globu.

Autor reportażu jest naukowcem w dziedzinie bezpieczeństwa i politologii. W swojej książce przygląda się wielu reżimom: tym istniejącym i tym, które zostały obalone. Dirsus rozmawiał z osobami z bliskiego otoczenia tyranów, wojskowymi, rewolucjonistami, ale też i zwykłymi ludźmi. Pokazuje nam, jak to jest możliwe, że jeden człowiek potrafi podporządkować sobie całe masy ludzi i tak ciężko jest mu się przeciwstawić. Ujawnia psychologiczne mechanizmy, którymi posługują tyrani do umacniania władzy absolutnej, podaje prawdziwe przykłady tego, jak dyktatorzy dochodzili do władzy, co robili, by się przy niej utrzymać, i jak niektórzy z nich kończyli. Odpowiada na pytanie, dlaczego niektóre kraje przyjmują uciekających dyktatorów i jakie mogą czerpać z tego korzyści. Jak można się domyślić, polityka globalna to jedna wielka gra, którą my, zwykli ludzie, postrzegamy w bardzo uproszczony sposób.

Opisy zachowań dyktatorów są tu dość szczegółowe, ale mimo to Autor nie zagłębia się przesadnie w bardzo dogłębną analizę, przez co z powodzeniem tę książkę może przeczytać laik w tematach geopolitycznych. Dowiadujemy się tu o przywódcach takich państw jak Burundi, Kuba, Turkmenistan, Kore@ Północna, Paragwaj, Nikaragua, czy oczywiście Rosja, ale też wiele innych. To świeża książka, więc zawiera naprawdę najnowsze wydarzenia ze światowej polityki, przez co jest bardzo aktualna. Daje nadzieję na to, że w obecnym świecie na szczęście coraz trudniej utrzymać jest dyktaturę, ale wszystko może się bardzo łatwo zmienić, dlatego tym bardziej należy się cieszyć tym, co mamy, patrzeć politykom na ręce i szczegółowo ich rozliczać. Książka otwierająca oczy.

[Swiezakksiazkowy · Rating 4 out of 5]

Za każdym razem gdy sięgam po tego typu książki zastanawiam się czy są mnie w stanie czymś zaskoczyć. I za każdym razem ulegam im magicznym wpływom. Tak też było przy lekturze Tyranów, odzierającej ze złudzeń książce, pokazującej, że jako ludzie jesteśmy ciężkim gatunkiem do zrozumienia.

Autor śledzi rozwój różnych technik autorytarnych w wielu krajach na całym świecie. Pokazuje przypadki starsze ale też zupełnie nowoczesne. Opisuje rolę wojska, zewnętrznych i wewnętrznych sprzymierzeńców dyktatorów, jaką rolę odgrywają rebelie, partyzanci, ale też zwykłe szczęście, przypadek i niewiedza, czy ignorancja społeczeństwa ciemiężonego, aczkolwiek nic nie robiącego, by zmienić obraz rzeczy.

Przykłady i liczba dyktatorów obezwładniają. W obecnym momencie więcej państw zbliża się ku rządom autorytarnym niż demokratycznym, co prowokuje zastanowienie, gdyż historia i fakty pokazują, że poziom życia w tych krajach jest znacznie niższy. Czy jesteśmy aż tak nieśmiale niedostosowani jako gatunek, że nie widzimy co się dzieje wokół nas, gdy władza jest przejmowana przez autorytarny reżim? Przykłady pokazane w książce wskazują na dużą dozę systematycznego podejścia w postępowaniu tyranów-narcyzów, czy obecnie czy sto lat temu, a jednak społeczeństwa liczące na ich dobrą wolę dają się mamić i okłamywać bezradnie poddając się ich woli.

Bardzo dobra książka. Systematyzuje wiedzę, pokazuje w kontekście i kontraście do innych systemów, jak funkcjonuje, działa, i rozwija się współczesna tyrania. Nie pozostawia złudzeń, że proces ma się dobrze a nowi jego adepci wciąż się rozwijają.

Polecam.

Dziękuję wydawnictwu za egzemplarz książki

[Alex W · Rating 2 out of 5]

TLDR:
- Book is decent but focuses on how tyrants stay in power rather than how they fall. Could have been half the length with good editing.

"How Tyrants Fall" is the kind of book that would have been twice as good if it had been half as long. The first 200 pages meander around and establish that:

1. Tyrants are stuck on a treadmill, getting off involves lethal risks which incentivises them to stay on it
2. Elites are amongst the most important people for the tyrant to keep onside
3. Weakening the armed elites is important to maintain power, but entails costs and risks
4. Rebels are a menace that can be difficult to manage
5. Foreign enemies are a menace that can be difficult to manage (having a nuclear bomb is a good insurance policy)
6. Faced with an internal uprising, using lethal force is full of risks, but failing to act decisively is equally bad
7. Assassinations are one of the few ways to get rid of a tyrant
8. The fall of a tyrant often means a new one just takes his place

Having hammered home these points in a relatively unstructured narrative style we finally get to the final chapter "How to Topple a Tyrant".

Whilst the first 8 chapters provide insights into how tyrants fall, they mostly read as a handbook for how a tyrant can stay in power. Maybe I had the wrong expectations, but the book's title intrigued me as I was curious to understand how tyrants typically fall, and what one can do to increase the longterm success of removing an autocrat from power. A more appropriate title would have been "How Tyrants Stay in Power, Bonus Chapter on How Tyrants Fall included".