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Published October 15, 2024
…the value of one’s opinions, in a matter like this, is a function of how generously one has allowed the alternatives to play with one’s soul.[1]
People talk down the idea of living in a fool’s paradise. But when one considers the nature of humanity, might it not seem that such a destination would be very suitable and desirable for us? I mean: If we are fools, then a fool’s paradise would be exactly what we need.[2]
Heißerhof, the country’s leading industrialist, had bequeathed his vast fortune to a foundation established for the purpose of benefiting a particular portable electric room heater. We will refer to this room heater by its brand name, “ThermoRex”. Heißerhof, who’d developed a reputation as being a bit of a misanthrope, had often been overheard saying that ThermoRex had done more for his welfare and comfort than any of his human companions ever had.[3]
Technological progress might create new ways of converting money into either quality or quantity of life, ways that don’t have the same steeply diminishing returns that we experience today.
For example, suppose there were a series of progressively more expensive medical treatments that each added some interval of healthy life-expectancy, or that made somebody smarter or more physically attractive. For one million dollars, you can live five extra years in perfect health; triple that, and you can add a further five healthy years. Spend a bit more, and make yourself immune to cancer, or get an intelligence enhancement for yourself or one of your children, or improve your looks from a seven to a ten. Under these conditions—which could plausibly be brought about by technological advances—there could remain strong incentives to continue to work long hours, even at very high levels of income.[4]
Even space colonization can produce at best a polynomial growth in land, assuming we are limited by the speed of light—whereas population growth can easily be exponential, making this an ultimately unwinnable race. Eventually the mouths to feed will outnumber the loaves of bread to put in them, unless we exit the competitive regime of unrestricted reproduction. (Please note that this is a point about long-term dynamics, not a recommendation for what one country or another should be doing at present—which is an entirely different question altogether.)[5]
…you could have a model of fluctuating fortune within a life, where an individual dies if at any point their fortune dips below a certain threshold. In such a model, an individual may need to have a high average level of fortune in order to be able to survive long enough to successfully reproduce. Most times in life would thus be times of relative plenty.
In this model, inventions that smooth out fortune within a life—such as granaries that make it possible to save the surpluses when times are good and use them in times of need—lead to lower average well-being (while increasing the size of the population). This could be one of the factors that made the lives of early farmers worse than the lives of their hunter-gatherer forebears, despite the advance in technology that agriculture represented.[6]
Technological maturity: A condition in which a set of capabilities exist that afford a level of control over nature that is close to the maximum that could be achieved in the fullness of time.[7]
The traditional and relatively superficial version of the purpose problem— let’s call it shallow redundancy—is that human occupational labor may become obsolete due to progress in automation, which, with the right economic policies, would inaugurate an age of abundance. …
The solution to shallow redundancy is to develop a leisure culture. Leisure culture would raise and educate people to thrive in unemployment. It would encourage rewarding interests and hobbies, and promote spirituality and the appreciation of the arts, literature, sports, nature, games, food, and conversation, and other domains…
The more fundamental version of the purpose problem…—let’s call it deep redundancy—is that much leisure activity is also at risk of losing its purpose. … It might even come to appear as though there would be no point in us doing anything—not working long hours for money, of course; but there would also be no point in putting effort into raising children, no point in going out shopping, no point in studying, no point in going to the gym or practicing the piano… et cetera.[8]
In order to work out how to change the existing neural connectivity matrix to incorporate some new skill or knowledge, the superintelligent AI implementing the procedure might find it expedient to run simulations, to explore the consequences of different possible changes. Yet we may want the AI to steer clear of certain types of simulation because they would involve the generation of morally relevant mental entities, such as minds with preferences or conscious experiences. So the AI would have to devise the plan for exactly how to modify the subject’s brain without resorting to proscribed types of computations. It is unclear how much difficulty this requirement adds to the task.[9]
Imagine that some technologically advanced civilization arrived on Earth ... Imagine they said: "The most important thing is to preserve the ecosystem in its natural splendor. In particular, the predator populations must be preserved: the psychopath killers, the fascist goons, the despotic death squads ... What a tragedy if this rich natural diversity were replaced with a monoculture of healthy, happy, well-fed people living in peace and harmony." ... this would be appallingly callous.
But another approach would be to create a mechanism that serves the same function as pain without being painful. Imagine an "exoskin": a layer of nanotech sensors so thin that we can't feel it or see it, but which monitors our skin surface for noxious stimuli. If we put our hand on a hot plate, ... the mechanism contracts our muscle fibers so as to make our hand withdraw
Bostrom asks his question about people pretty close to him, leftist academics in rich Western societies.