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财富、战争与智慧： 二战股市风云录
每过一段时间，总会发生一些破坏性事件，使财富大规模丧失。我们如何在混乱中保护财富？过去的事件，尤其是像二战这样的极端事件，能给我们提供什么启发？
作者研究了二战期间美、英、法、德等国的股市，发现股市表现出的群体智慧令人震惊：英国股市在不列颠之战前便已触底；美国股市在中途岛海战取得辉煌胜利之前就已发生了大翻盘；德国股市在对苏发动狂袭时达到市值之巅之后开始下跌……股市发生巨大变化的时刻，预示着战争中最关键的转折点即将出现，不过，当时没有任何专家充分认识到这一点。
在这部经典作品中，巴顿·比格斯展示了战胜国和战败国股市不同的表现，研究了股票、房地产和黄金等资产在剧烈动荡时期的不同特点。
个人如何在混乱、极端局势下甚至在战争中保护财富？从历史中吸取智慧，本书能为读者提供十分有益的启发和借鉴。
作者研究了二战期间美、英、法、德等国的股市，发现股市表现出的群体智慧令人震惊：英国股市在不列颠之战前便已触底；美国股市在中途岛海战取得辉煌胜利之前就已发生了大翻盘；德国股市在对苏发动狂袭时达到市值之巅之后开始下跌……股市发生巨大变化的时刻，预示着战争中最关键的转折点即将出现，不过，当时没有任何专家充分认识到这一点。
在这部经典作品中，巴顿·比格斯展示了战胜国和战败国股市不同的表现，研究了股票、房地产和黄金等资产在剧烈动荡时期的不同特点。
个人如何在混乱、极端局势下甚至在战争中保护财富？从历史中吸取智慧，本书能为读者提供十分有益的启发和借鉴。
424 pages, Hardcover
First published January 1, 2008
About the author
Barton Biggs
10 books36 followersBarton Biggs was a well-known figure in the investment world. Before running multi-billion-dollar hedge fund Traxis Partners, Biggs spent three decades as a senior partner at Morgan Stanley. Biggs was selected 10 times for Institutional Investor’s “All-America Research Team,” and made over 300 television appearances before he passed away in 2012.
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 49 reviews
July 6, 2022
Great to see the financial perspective in history.
May 1, 2022
Great refresher of the WW2 events, the markets performance during the war and solid analysis about what asset classes performed best to keep the wealth during wars and other black swan events.
Good read with The new world order by Ray Dalio.
Some quotes for future reference:
Wealth, war and wisdom:
Achieving diversification by transferring money out of lucrative, in-country investments to sterile assets in a safe haven is wrenching and very expensive but it has to be viewed as catastrophe insurance. No mat- ter how safe and secure your home country appears, even if it’s the United States, every truly wealthy person should have some assets elsewhere. History suggests that nothing is forever. Extreme political change, a terrorist attack, a meltdown of the financial system can happen anywhere. Currency diversification is also essential.Consider carefully what currency or currencies you want your wealth to have purchasing power in.
How do you preserve wealth in anticipation of a time of chaos in the future? No one knows. Uncertainty means that uncertainty compels diversification. Diversification is and always has been the first tenet of the Prudent Man Rule of investing. Diversify your assets in terms of allocation between stocks, bonds, private equity, income producing property, and real businesses.
Charles Darwin in The Origin of the Species wrote:
It is not the strongest of the species that survives, not the most
intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.
What can you do? In simplest terms, the conclusions are to diversify your fortune both as to asset class and location, anticipate the anticipation of trouble, and pay attention to the message of the markets. Equities are the place to be in the long run because of their proven and virtually unique ability to increase the purchasing power of capital.
In my considered but not necessarily correct opinion, a family or individual should have 75% of its wealth in equity investments. A cen- tury of history validates equities as the principal, but not the only, place to be. As David Swensen likes to say, you as an investor in an inflation prone world want to be an owner—not a lender. Most of that commit- ment should be in publicly traded global equities. Don’t try to time short term market swings.What you want to capture is that wealth purchasing power compounding from the real return of stock. Tilted, refreshed index funds, or even just plain vanilla index funds, are fine. Don’t fuss with high fee investment alternatives, and in general, don’t get fancy and try to pick the best global managers or hedge funds.
Another, much smaller part of your diversification strategy should be to have a farm or a ranch somewhere far off the beaten track but which you can get to reasonably quickly and easily. Think of it as an insurance policy, and for rich people in the developed economies a farm is a fine diversifier and probably an excellent long-term investment. Per- haps its purchase price should amount to five percent of your net worth.
You should assume the possibility of a breakdown of the civilized infrastructure.Your safe haven must be self-sufficient and capable of growing some kind of food. It should be well-stocked with seed, fertilizer, canned food, wine, medicine, clothes, etc
Good read with The new world order by Ray Dalio.
Some quotes for future reference:
Wealth, war and wisdom:
Achieving diversification by transferring money out of lucrative, in-country investments to sterile assets in a safe haven is wrenching and very expensive but it has to be viewed as catastrophe insurance. No mat- ter how safe and secure your home country appears, even if it’s the United States, every truly wealthy person should have some assets elsewhere. History suggests that nothing is forever. Extreme political change, a terrorist attack, a meltdown of the financial system can happen anywhere. Currency diversification is also essential.Consider carefully what currency or currencies you want your wealth to have purchasing power in.
How do you preserve wealth in anticipation of a time of chaos in the future? No one knows. Uncertainty means that uncertainty compels diversification. Diversification is and always has been the first tenet of the Prudent Man Rule of investing. Diversify your assets in terms of allocation between stocks, bonds, private equity, income producing property, and real businesses.
Charles Darwin in The Origin of the Species wrote:
It is not the strongest of the species that survives, not the most
intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.
What can you do? In simplest terms, the conclusions are to diversify your fortune both as to asset class and location, anticipate the anticipation of trouble, and pay attention to the message of the markets. Equities are the place to be in the long run because of their proven and virtually unique ability to increase the purchasing power of capital.
In my considered but not necessarily correct opinion, a family or individual should have 75% of its wealth in equity investments. A cen- tury of history validates equities as the principal, but not the only, place to be. As David Swensen likes to say, you as an investor in an inflation prone world want to be an owner—not a lender. Most of that commit- ment should be in publicly traded global equities. Don’t try to time short term market swings.What you want to capture is that wealth purchasing power compounding from the real return of stock. Tilted, refreshed index funds, or even just plain vanilla index funds, are fine. Don’t fuss with high fee investment alternatives, and in general, don’t get fancy and try to pick the best global managers or hedge funds.
Another, much smaller part of your diversification strategy should be to have a farm or a ranch somewhere far off the beaten track but which you can get to reasonably quickly and easily. Think of it as an insurance policy, and for rich people in the developed economies a farm is a fine diversifier and probably an excellent long-term investment. Per- haps its purchase price should amount to five percent of your net worth.
You should assume the possibility of a breakdown of the civilized infrastructure.Your safe haven must be self-sufficient and capable of growing some kind of food. It should be well-stocked with seed, fertilizer, canned food, wine, medicine, clothes, etc
May 13, 2008
Barton Biggs has a reputation for being full of himself / annoying. when I read his last book, hedge-hogging, I thought he didn't seem as full of himself as his reputation, and it was a decently pleasant read. sort of kooky (e.g. included some weird ghost story and a mini-biography of keynes, both presumably as filler), and didn't learn much from it, but it wsa a reasonably pleasant read (and as it happened, a 20 page biography of keynes was a good thing to read).
wealth, war, and wisdom (history of finance during WWII) is a worse book. there are two things worth learning in this book:
(a) history of what various financial assets did in turbulent times that I have no personal memory of (but this is better done in books like "Triumph of the Optimists: 101 Years of Global Investment Returns".
(b) stocks are good at encapsulating the wisdom of crowds (but that is much much MUCH better done in the book The Wisdom of Crowds).
The annoying things about the book
(a) kinda boring and repetitive (and I like financial history)
(b) bad statistically. lots of looking at stock charts and noticing that stocks hit a low around the battle of such-and-such, and then generally went up, and since the news media right after the battle of such-and-such didn't realize it was the turning point in the war, stocks are way smarter than the media in that they somehow recognized the turning point. I'm generally a fan of the wisdom of stocks, but he is overstating the case in the above "analysis". e.g. if the battle happens and it is seen as a very mild positive, then stocks go up a little. as the next weeks and months roll on, battles continue to go in favor of whoever won the battle of such-and-such, and so stocks continue to drift up. and so biggs looks at the bottom of stocks being around the battle and announces that stocks saw that it was a turning point in the war, when in fact all they did was go up a little that day and then keep going up as more data came in; i.e. their movement could probably in fact be decently accurately based on what the media was reporting. if stocks really recognized a turning point in the battle of such-and-such, they would have gone up 25% that day to reflect the big change in the odds of winning the war, and of course they did no such thing.
The central message of the book (aside from how wise stocks are):
(a) bad things can happen
(b) if you are rich and want to stay at least well off, massively diversify your holdings in different assets and assets held in different places, because any individual plan can go wrong. e.g. some people went bust because they stashed their loot too far away and couldn't get to it during the war. and e.g. some people went bust because they had it too near and it was just seized when their country was overrun. and some assets did crap and some did well. you get advice about owning farmland but not some huge mansion because the latter is more likely to get seized. the "held in different places" is at least something besides what any standard book on investing would tell you, so I guess there was one other thing worth reading in the book.
wealth, war, and wisdom (history of finance during WWII) is a worse book. there are two things worth learning in this book:
(a) history of what various financial assets did in turbulent times that I have no personal memory of (but this is better done in books like "Triumph of the Optimists: 101 Years of Global Investment Returns".
(b) stocks are good at encapsulating the wisdom of crowds (but that is much much MUCH better done in the book The Wisdom of Crowds).
The annoying things about the book
(a) kinda boring and repetitive (and I like financial history)
(b) bad statistically. lots of looking at stock charts and noticing that stocks hit a low around the battle of such-and-such, and then generally went up, and since the news media right after the battle of such-and-such didn't realize it was the turning point in the war, stocks are way smarter than the media in that they somehow recognized the turning point. I'm generally a fan of the wisdom of stocks, but he is overstating the case in the above "analysis". e.g. if the battle happens and it is seen as a very mild positive, then stocks go up a little. as the next weeks and months roll on, battles continue to go in favor of whoever won the battle of such-and-such, and so stocks continue to drift up. and so biggs looks at the bottom of stocks being around the battle and announces that stocks saw that it was a turning point in the war, when in fact all they did was go up a little that day and then keep going up as more data came in; i.e. their movement could probably in fact be decently accurately based on what the media was reporting. if stocks really recognized a turning point in the battle of such-and-such, they would have gone up 25% that day to reflect the big change in the odds of winning the war, and of course they did no such thing.
The central message of the book (aside from how wise stocks are):
(a) bad things can happen
(b) if you are rich and want to stay at least well off, massively diversify your holdings in different assets and assets held in different places, because any individual plan can go wrong. e.g. some people went bust because they stashed their loot too far away and couldn't get to it during the war. and e.g. some people went bust because they had it too near and it was just seized when their country was overrun. and some assets did crap and some did well. you get advice about owning farmland but not some huge mansion because the latter is more likely to get seized. the "held in different places" is at least something besides what any standard book on investing would tell you, so I guess there was one other thing worth reading in the book.
December 23, 2014
As someone who researches military history, and invests in stock market shares, I was interested in seeing the two, laid side-by-side. Mr. Biggs is on an important and novel track by juxtaposing war/political events and securities trading; he summarizes the course of WWII (and much of the first half of the 20th Century relating to it, e.g., the Weimar economy or post-war Japan and Korea).
(As regards Weimar, Biggs notes, "The message for wealth preservation is important. Hyper-inflation occurs from time to time, and basically it is one of the Four Horsemen in drag.") However, he has some unfortunate leaps in narrative: in one page he goes from the 1937 U.S. recession, to the 1987 stock crash, to Adm. Yamamoto's time as naval attaché in Washington - in three successive paragraphs.
To be sure, the author admits he is not a military historian, so I can accept the anecdotal parts (that is, the "war stories" about generals and political leaders), with what happened, contemporaneously, to securities markets. Still, I would have liked to have had some insight, say, into what the $3 billion gamble on Boeing's B-29 program, or Goodyear's getting drafted into building Corsair fighters, did to their value per share. Or, for that matter, I'm curious how he can talk about postwar Japanese property values (i.e., under MacArthur and later) and not talk about the Bretton Woods economic system, which was (for better or ill) one of the most decisive results of that war. I could've used less of isolated incidents like the Jervis Bay naval battle and more on British commodity shortages, which were what the enemy was trying to create by interdicting the convoys. He does, however, cover the losses of fortunes in Italy, France, Germany and Eastern Europe in some detail and insight -- even evoking, in passing, the Gone With The Wind misfortunes of the Civil War South as a comparison. Scarlett O'Hara was fortunate not to have her estate outside, say, Krakow.
Mr. Biggs is very worthwhile when he gets into how wars (and post-war periods) can create, destroy, or shelter wealth - not just securities but real property, art, gold, and cash. He shows how land can survive a war or be expropriated by the winners, and how shares can (at least overall, judging by his research) prove worthwhile over the long term. It helps, as he shows, if you don't lose a war, don't go into debt financing one, try to diversify your wealth and have an escape hatch -- your nest egg isn't worth much if you don't catch the last plane out of the capital and you wind up behind barbed wire.
His lessons on how wealth is destroyed in wartime are more insightful in the final chapters, and perhaps worth wading through the back-and-forth war stories. Indeed, Mr. Biggs starts a new discussion of comparative history and economics, from the viewpoint of the frontline investor, and the book's lasting value may be in sparking more research and discussion.
(As regards Weimar, Biggs notes, "The message for wealth preservation is important. Hyper-inflation occurs from time to time, and basically it is one of the Four Horsemen in drag.") However, he has some unfortunate leaps in narrative: in one page he goes from the 1937 U.S. recession, to the 1987 stock crash, to Adm. Yamamoto's time as naval attaché in Washington - in three successive paragraphs.
To be sure, the author admits he is not a military historian, so I can accept the anecdotal parts (that is, the "war stories" about generals and political leaders), with what happened, contemporaneously, to securities markets. Still, I would have liked to have had some insight, say, into what the $3 billion gamble on Boeing's B-29 program, or Goodyear's getting drafted into building Corsair fighters, did to their value per share. Or, for that matter, I'm curious how he can talk about postwar Japanese property values (i.e., under MacArthur and later) and not talk about the Bretton Woods economic system, which was (for better or ill) one of the most decisive results of that war. I could've used less of isolated incidents like the Jervis Bay naval battle and more on British commodity shortages, which were what the enemy was trying to create by interdicting the convoys. He does, however, cover the losses of fortunes in Italy, France, Germany and Eastern Europe in some detail and insight -- even evoking, in passing, the Gone With The Wind misfortunes of the Civil War South as a comparison. Scarlett O'Hara was fortunate not to have her estate outside, say, Krakow.
Mr. Biggs is very worthwhile when he gets into how wars (and post-war periods) can create, destroy, or shelter wealth - not just securities but real property, art, gold, and cash. He shows how land can survive a war or be expropriated by the winners, and how shares can (at least overall, judging by his research) prove worthwhile over the long term. It helps, as he shows, if you don't lose a war, don't go into debt financing one, try to diversify your wealth and have an escape hatch -- your nest egg isn't worth much if you don't catch the last plane out of the capital and you wind up behind barbed wire.
His lessons on how wealth is destroyed in wartime are more insightful in the final chapters, and perhaps worth wading through the back-and-forth war stories. Indeed, Mr. Biggs starts a new discussion of comparative history and economics, from the viewpoint of the frontline investor, and the book's lasting value may be in sparking more research and discussion.
May 20, 2017
Great intersection of war history with financial history. Biggs assesses what happened to wealth during turbulent years of war and its aftermath in both winning and losing countries.
Takeaways:
Buy some jewelry, farm/ranch or timber land and buy more gold.
Don't keep all your assets at a bank. Keep them in a secreted place not known to others.
Nothing last forever. 1/100 of the forbes 100 was still on the list 100 years later.
74/500 of the S&P were still in S&P 40 years later.
Russians had been dehumanized mentally and morally as almost everyone they loved had been killed or murdered by Germans or their own regime.
Takeaways:
Buy some jewelry, farm/ranch or timber land and buy more gold.
Don't keep all your assets at a bank. Keep them in a secreted place not known to others.
Nothing last forever. 1/100 of the forbes 100 was still on the list 100 years later.
74/500 of the S&P were still in S&P 40 years later.
Russians had been dehumanized mentally and morally as almost everyone they loved had been killed or murdered by Germans or their own regime.
November 11, 2015
Great WWII narrative, but not as convincing at the book´s main argument, which is how to preserve capital during extreme periods.
September 28, 2020
Compelling survey of WW2 history, intersected with interesting observations about capital markets and their reactions to unfolding world events. Book is thought provoking but lacking in rigor and intellectual gravitas. It is, however, a useful resource as investors think about preserving capital during the times of uncertainty and unrest, especially wars.
WW&W by Barton Biggs came out in 2007 right before the start of the Great Financial Crisis. The time was auspicious. The world was about to face a financial calamity the likes of which we have not observed in decades. Inevitably, during these periods, stewards of capital face the same quintessential question: what’s to be done with my capital?
The same question acutely arises during every crisis, of course, including the global pandemic. What is the best way to proceed when the whole system is at risk? What happens when the social order is breaking down, when brigands or invaders are getting close, when jealous neighbors are licking their chops hoping to help themselves to the fruits of your labor?
In this book, Biggs essentially breaks down the main events of WW2 and provides helpful historical context to those who are less familiar with the period, countries, battles and personalities involved. This is by no means an original or even profound historical work, but it is plenty informed on the subject matter.
The purpose of the book, is to tease out how did the markets behave during the periods (especially the pivotal events and battles) and – most importantly, how should a thoughtful investor conduct her affairs to maximize the chances of preserving not just her life but also the capital.
In terms of takeaways, the book provides a few important once.
Markets don’t just discount, they also foretell. This is probably the most interesting hypothesis of the book. BB makes a case that markets (particularly equities) are smarter that any individual investors or analysts or other “gurus”. Specifically, the author makes a case that markets – largely, though not often – actually anticipated big victories and defeats – i.e. the turning points of the war. This is a compelling observation.
Diversified equities are your best bet. Despite the unbelievable devastation of the WW2, diversified stocks biased portfolios is the way to go. Yes, stocks are incredibly volatile but if you want to preserve the purchasing power of your capital, there are no alternatives. Worth noting, this old hedge fund manager does advocate for index based products.
Diversify/Diversify/Diversify This much is clear. During the periods of significant unrest, the only reasonable path is diversification. Diversify by asset class, geography, currencies, institutions, banks, counter- parties, products, etc. And since you really don’t know when that black swan event will hit, you should diversify during the good times too.
Buy a small farm outside of the main thoroughfares. Having a small but productive lot of land capable of growing basic supplies seems to be a good bet. And don’t flaunt your wealth!!
Net/net – it’s an enjoyable book with some good takeaways.
WW&W by Barton Biggs came out in 2007 right before the start of the Great Financial Crisis. The time was auspicious. The world was about to face a financial calamity the likes of which we have not observed in decades. Inevitably, during these periods, stewards of capital face the same quintessential question: what’s to be done with my capital?
The same question acutely arises during every crisis, of course, including the global pandemic. What is the best way to proceed when the whole system is at risk? What happens when the social order is breaking down, when brigands or invaders are getting close, when jealous neighbors are licking their chops hoping to help themselves to the fruits of your labor?
In this book, Biggs essentially breaks down the main events of WW2 and provides helpful historical context to those who are less familiar with the period, countries, battles and personalities involved. This is by no means an original or even profound historical work, but it is plenty informed on the subject matter.
The purpose of the book, is to tease out how did the markets behave during the periods (especially the pivotal events and battles) and – most importantly, how should a thoughtful investor conduct her affairs to maximize the chances of preserving not just her life but also the capital.
In terms of takeaways, the book provides a few important once.
Markets don’t just discount, they also foretell. This is probably the most interesting hypothesis of the book. BB makes a case that markets (particularly equities) are smarter that any individual investors or analysts or other “gurus”. Specifically, the author makes a case that markets – largely, though not often – actually anticipated big victories and defeats – i.e. the turning points of the war. This is a compelling observation.
Diversified equities are your best bet. Despite the unbelievable devastation of the WW2, diversified stocks biased portfolios is the way to go. Yes, stocks are incredibly volatile but if you want to preserve the purchasing power of your capital, there are no alternatives. Worth noting, this old hedge fund manager does advocate for index based products.
Diversify/Diversify/Diversify This much is clear. During the periods of significant unrest, the only reasonable path is diversification. Diversify by asset class, geography, currencies, institutions, banks, counter- parties, products, etc. And since you really don’t know when that black swan event will hit, you should diversify during the good times too.
Buy a small farm outside of the main thoroughfares. Having a small but productive lot of land capable of growing basic supplies seems to be a good bet. And don’t flaunt your wealth!!
Net/net – it’s an enjoyable book with some good takeaways.
August 14, 2024
It was hard to listen to, and the war parts were mind-numbingly boring. Note that I used to carry a pillow to history class in high school, and this felt exactly like that. WWII is too overwhelming for me to comprehend from a top-down view, and I hope it never repeats in any shape or form. However, I do enjoy personal stories from a bottom-up perspective, like Anne Frank's diary or survivor accounts that reveal what it was like for individuals.
The advice in the book is summed up in Chapter 15, which basically recommends being 75% invested in stocks for the long run and buying a farm. Yeah, right. I really dislike the deep adaptation or prepper movement, where people aim for the worst and preemptively make decisions to save themselves. I believe local wars are avoidable or escapable (or hopefully, no one is interested in my poor-ass country). A global war is bound to be nuclear, at which point it’s all over anyway, and what stocks you own will be the least of your concerns. Alternatively, I believe in eternal global peace and that we’ll figure out how to deal with adversities as they arise. I don’t worry too much, and history shows that those who believed in eternal prosperity fared better than those who constantly worried about what was lurking around the corner. No, I will not change my portfolio allocation to include stashing unsellable gold bars in the backyard, nor do I want a farm where I can sit sipping whiskey while the rest of the world burns.
Overall, the book is an uneasy "meh," with plenty of opportunities for sleep as it’s mostly “just” a history book. It’s obviously well-written, and the author means well, but it didn’t change anything about my investment approach or outlook on life. It could be (and I believe it was) easily summed up in a Nick Maggiulli article: How to Invest During Times of War. https://ofdollarsanddata.com/how-to-i...
For now, I’ll continue investing in myself (learning). I missed this while listening to the book, but Nick pointed out that it was in there.
This location was merely hinted at, but if I were to move anywhere, it would probably be New Zealand. However, they want NZD 100-500K from entrepreneurs as capital, and I don’t ever plan to have a job, so I’m not sure how else I would get there.
The advice in the book is summed up in Chapter 15, which basically recommends being 75% invested in stocks for the long run and buying a farm. Yeah, right. I really dislike the deep adaptation or prepper movement, where people aim for the worst and preemptively make decisions to save themselves. I believe local wars are avoidable or escapable (or hopefully, no one is interested in my poor-ass country). A global war is bound to be nuclear, at which point it’s all over anyway, and what stocks you own will be the least of your concerns. Alternatively, I believe in eternal global peace and that we’ll figure out how to deal with adversities as they arise. I don’t worry too much, and history shows that those who believed in eternal prosperity fared better than those who constantly worried about what was lurking around the corner. No, I will not change my portfolio allocation to include stashing unsellable gold bars in the backyard, nor do I want a farm where I can sit sipping whiskey while the rest of the world burns.
Overall, the book is an uneasy "meh," with plenty of opportunities for sleep as it’s mostly “just” a history book. It’s obviously well-written, and the author means well, but it didn’t change anything about my investment approach or outlook on life. It could be (and I believe it was) easily summed up in a Nick Maggiulli article: How to Invest During Times of War. https://ofdollarsanddata.com/how-to-i...
For now, I’ll continue investing in myself (learning). I missed this while listening to the book, but Nick pointed out that it was in there.
This location was merely hinted at, but if I were to move anywhere, it would probably be New Zealand. However, they want NZD 100-500K from entrepreneurs as capital, and I don’t ever plan to have a job, so I’m not sure how else I would get there.
November 7, 2024
I haven’t seen anyone write about how to protect yourself in turbulent times. Anyone know of any other books fiction or non-fiction about this subject?
Interesting book, but not terribly useful for even an upper middle class person. Besides a lot of the advice is obsolete.
There are no longer any Swiss accounts which the US government doesn’t know about. So I don’t know if it’s possible to send wealth overseas anonymously. Except perhaps through close friends.
During WW II and the Great Depression stock and bond ownership was not nearly as widespread as they are now. Plus there were no discount brokerages and internet trading. That could be why stock markets tracked the course of the war. Well placed stockbrokers would have friends in high places and the military so they would know the true course of the war. In Japan, people would no longer see their aircraft carriers anchored in the harbor despite the government claiming a victory at Midway. Ditto in the US and Germany. Just by knowing where the battles were one would know whether the war was going well or badly.
Mr Biggs found land and jewelry as the best ways to preserve wealth in countries which lost the war. However, now land can be contaminated by chemical, atomic or biological weapons. And someone would need to have specialized knowledge about jewelry to avoid selling at a small fraction of its value. Jewelry and even agricultural products have to go through the black market. But with the government or an occupied country it is increasingly difficult to hide assets. And even if they were hidden it is unclear how to convert them to necessities.
Modern all out war would quickly destroy the world and kill billions.
The factual errors and typos were distracting. For example, I believe Akagi, one of the Japanese carriers at Midway, was scuttled about 7 PM, not in the afternoon claimed by the author. There were many errors like that and they were distracting. It also called into question whether other information was reliable.
But despite this it was an interesting read.
What did people in the South do after the Civil War? The money wasn’t worth anything anymore. I haven’t heard that the North exchanged Confederate money for US dollars.
Interesting book, but not terribly useful for even an upper middle class person. Besides a lot of the advice is obsolete.
There are no longer any Swiss accounts which the US government doesn’t know about. So I don’t know if it’s possible to send wealth overseas anonymously. Except perhaps through close friends.
During WW II and the Great Depression stock and bond ownership was not nearly as widespread as they are now. Plus there were no discount brokerages and internet trading. That could be why stock markets tracked the course of the war. Well placed stockbrokers would have friends in high places and the military so they would know the true course of the war. In Japan, people would no longer see their aircraft carriers anchored in the harbor despite the government claiming a victory at Midway. Ditto in the US and Germany. Just by knowing where the battles were one would know whether the war was going well or badly.
Mr Biggs found land and jewelry as the best ways to preserve wealth in countries which lost the war. However, now land can be contaminated by chemical, atomic or biological weapons. And someone would need to have specialized knowledge about jewelry to avoid selling at a small fraction of its value. Jewelry and even agricultural products have to go through the black market. But with the government or an occupied country it is increasingly difficult to hide assets. And even if they were hidden it is unclear how to convert them to necessities.
Modern all out war would quickly destroy the world and kill billions.
The factual errors and typos were distracting. For example, I believe Akagi, one of the Japanese carriers at Midway, was scuttled about 7 PM, not in the afternoon claimed by the author. There were many errors like that and they were distracting. It also called into question whether other information was reliable.
But despite this it was an interesting read.
What did people in the South do after the Civil War? The money wasn’t worth anything anymore. I haven’t heard that the North exchanged Confederate money for US dollars.
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
March 14, 2022
Although this book’s topic is a fascinating one, it would have made a much better article instead of a book. The work is poorly cited and the author (an investment manager) often based his account on historical novels, leading to grave factual errors. There are also more minor errors like on page 237 when Biggs repeatedly states that the German 5th Army was surrounded in Stalingrad when in fact it was the 6th Army. The author repeats long debunked myths about the war, and the book is riddled with typos that a good copy editor should have caught. The thesis that equity markets in Japan, Great Britain, Germany, and the US correctly judged the turning point of the war is certainly correct (as is the author’s advice to diversify one’s assets), but overall the book was a disappointing read.
July 24, 2026
有個重要的啟示古今皆適用：如果你在某個國家裡是富有的少數族群，尤其是宗教上的少數，你應該隨時保持警覺，千萬不要驕傲自滿。你的富足免不了會引起他人的嫉妒，嫉妒必然會導致仇恨。你應該把部分資產移到國外，在二次大戰期間，如果你在歐洲或亞洲是戰敗國的公民，海外的錢可以救你一命。第十章提到的猶太富豪列文，就是有備無患的最佳例子。他很有遠見，早就把一些錢移到法國以外。在戰亂期間，財富匯出國外以前，幾乎都會遭到嚴重的剝削。在國外存些錢，肯定對戰後的生活重建有幫助。
但另一方面，戰爭那幾年你要是一直困在國內求生，海外的資產當下對你也沒多大的效益。你應該在國內也藏一筆錢，以備不時之需。萬一你存很多錢在海外，卻在國內陷入飢荒，遭到監禁，或困在集中營裡，那也難以忍受。許多富有的法國人，無論是不是猶太人，都在瑞士存了錢，但是法國遭到占領時，依舊得在國內忍受著困苦的生活。
把財富從國內報酬豐厚的資產，轉移到海外枯燥的投資標的，確實相當痛苦，代價也高，但你必須把它視為一種災難保險機制。無論你的國家看起來有多安穩，即使是美國也好，每個真正的富豪都應該到海外存一些資產。歷史告訴我們，世上沒有一成不變的東西。任何國家都可能發生極端的政治改變、恐怖攻擊、金融系統崩盤。貨幣的多角化持有也很重要，仔細思考你希望你的財富有哪些貨幣購買力。
但另一方面，戰爭那幾年你要是一直困在國內求生，海外的資產當下對你也沒多大的效益。你應該在國內也藏一筆錢，以備不時之需。萬一你存很多錢在海外，卻在國內陷入飢荒，遭到監禁，或困在集中營裡，那也難以忍受。許多富有的法國人，無論是不是猶太人，都在瑞士存了錢，但是法國遭到占領時，依舊得在國內忍受著困苦的生活。
把財富從國內報酬豐厚的資產，轉移到海外枯燥的投資標的，確實相當痛苦，代價也高，但你必須把它視為一種災難保險機制。無論你的國家看起來有多安穩，即使是美國也好，每個真正的富豪都應該到海外存一些資產。歷史告訴我們，世上沒有一成不變的東西。任何國家都可能發生極端的政治改變、恐怖攻擊、金融系統崩盤。貨幣的多角化持有也很重要，仔細思考你希望你的財富有哪些貨幣購買力。
April 12, 2018
Thought this book was about the stock market and how to make it through during turbulent time. Turn out to be a history book about WW2. 90% of the lines are about the war, which I think there are better narratives from Churchill or max hastings. Conclusion of the book is also Mr. obvious, telling readers to diversity, look closely at the market and invest in equity for long term. Not worth a read.
September 20, 2020
書摘：
1. 矛盾其實並不存在，無論你在什麼時候遇到矛盾，檢查一下你的前提，就會發現其中一個是錯誤的。----艾茵·蘭德《阿特拉斯聳聳肩》
2. 交易絕對避免盲目跟風，專業投資人、策略家、經濟學家打從心裡就不相信群眾智慧，有時媒體也是如此。
3. 我們的文明程度越高，我們的恐懼就越深，擔心我們在文明的過程中，拋棄了蠻荒時代屬於美、屬於生活之類的東西。----傑克·倫敦《野性的呼喚》
4. 一個人絕對不可在遇到的威脅時，背過身去試圖逃避。若是這樣做，只會使危險加倍。但是如果立即免對它毫不退縮，危險便會減半----邱吉爾
5. 當人民被迫服從而服從時，他們做得對。但是，一但人民可以打破自己身上的桎梏而打破它時，他們做得更對。----盧梭《社會契約論》
6. 當心長期持股：沒有什麼是永恆的！把財富的75%投資在股票裡，應多角化投資，沒有什麼好股票是可以永遠持有的，從來沒有這種東西。應該把財富分散在股票、債券、私募股權以及會創造收入的事業上。其中也應該把一小部分得的財富投資於農場或牧場，地點應選在遠離塵囂，但可以迅速且輕易到達的地方。
1. 矛盾其實並不存在，無論你在什麼時候遇到矛盾，檢查一下你的前提，就會發現其中一個是錯誤的。----艾茵·蘭德《阿特拉斯聳聳肩》
2. 交易絕對避免盲目跟風，專業投資人、策略家、經濟學家打從心裡就不相信群眾智慧，有時媒體也是如此。
3. 我們的文明程度越高，我們的恐懼就越深，擔心我們在文明的過程中，拋棄了蠻荒時代屬於美、屬於生活之類的東西。----傑克·倫敦《野性的呼喚》
4. 一個人絕對不可在遇到的威脅時，背過身去試圖逃避。若是這樣做，只會使危險加倍。但是如果立即免對它毫不退縮，危險便會減半----邱吉爾
5. 當人民被迫服從而服從時，他們做得對。但是，一但人民可以打破自己身上的桎梏而打破它時，他們做得更對。----盧梭《社會契約論》
6. 當心長期持股：沒有什麼是永恆的！把財富的75%投資在股票裡，應多角化投資，沒有什麼好股票是可以永遠持有的，從來沒有這種東西。應該把財富分散在股票、債券、私募股權以及會創造收入的事業上。其中也應該把一小部分得的財富投資於農場或牧場，地點應選在遠離塵囂，但可以迅速且輕易到達的地方。
February 18, 2025
This is an odd little book. It combines a breezy discussion of World War II with a pretty unconvincing thesis that stock markets had a better sense of historical turning points than politicians or experts. (Biggs provides no statistical evidence for it other than "look at the charts," basically.)
The best parts of the book described ways in which to conceal or maintain wealth in near-apocalyptic conditions. Unfortunately, not many pages were given over to this.
I don't dislike Wealth, War and Wisdom, but it feels a little too lazy. The topic is rich but Biggs is content to do little more than just scratch the surface.
The best parts of the book described ways in which to conceal or maintain wealth in near-apocalyptic conditions. Unfortunately, not many pages were given over to this.
I don't dislike Wealth, War and Wisdom, but it feels a little too lazy. The topic is rich but Biggs is content to do little more than just scratch the surface.
August 8, 2025
One of the most interesting reads in a while. Of course, for someone who has read WW2 extensively, things can get repetitive but as someone who never went into such detail about the war, it really takes you through the details of the war and how the stock market behaved during those times and what different asset classes could be a store of value.
August 25, 2023
Anecdotal analysis of the stock and bond market against news events during several global wars. The author adds some general advice and wisdom.
Worth reading, and recommended for anyone interested in Kondratief, Ray Dalio or black swans.
Worth reading, and recommended for anyone interested in Kondratief, Ray Dalio or black swans.
April 12, 2024
Excellent cautionary tale for anyone looking for ways to safely guard their wealth against potential threats political, military and environmental. One of the books my grandpa always tried to get me to read while he was still alive. I see why you liked it Papa.
November 10, 2024
Initially the book is all about ww2, may be more than 80%. I had to watch Netflix documentry to get the hang on it.
But later he comes to the point. Good book, except he unnecessary kept reading the charts, like cricket commentry.
But later he comes to the point. Good book, except he unnecessary kept reading the charts, like cricket commentry.
August 16, 2026
A thoughtful historical tour with a markets lens. Very easy reading but could have done with some proof reading for historical accuracy. It was the German 6th Army that surrendered at Stalingrad not the 5th Army (which was renamed 18th Army in 1939).
October 26, 2017
Loved the book and the historical facts and graphs. While Biggs makes some conclusions about surviving awar financially I am not sure they would hold today. Well written and really enjoyed it.
May 25, 2018
I found the stories about WW2 to be the best parts of the book. the transition from war to the wealth discussion was sometimes rough. overall an interesting read.
Want to Read
November 29, 2020another rec from Fleckenstein Capital
April 29, 2022
very fun read. Dalio is probably more structured tho
April 30, 2022
A very good read!
May 1, 2022
Biggs surprised me by his rich knowledge on literature and history
May 19, 2022
Epic and brilliant!
April 2, 2025
Not one I imagined reading or enjoying, but found the combo of WWII and markets surprisingly compatible. Liked Briggs’ no-nonsense writing.
July 22, 2022
A the beginning the author claims he is not a historian but then narrates a history of WWII, quite a biased one. Only at the end of the book there is a conclusion piece where Barton Biggs briefly dives in to the area of his expertise - finances.
February 20, 2014
A study of stock market through World War II
This is a review of the events of World War II (WWII) and its impact on the stock market worldwide. This work is of great interest since we live in post 9/11 era filled with conflict, threat of another world war and increasing scarcity of resources. The book chronicles the history of death, destruction and the grim realities of WWII in great detail and its impact on stock market in both losing and winning countries. Stock markets were always one step ahead of actual events in estimating, analyzing, and deciphering the economic future through changing stock prices. The author suggests that investor crowd always had a great intuitive wisdom and imagination: Stock markets are like voting machines.
There are some very interesting tales of how stock markets performed during critical stages of the war. Just before the battle of Britain in 1940 the British markets bottomed out; the German market peaked after the attack on Russia; and in October 1937 the American markets collapsed and exactly 50 years later in Oct 1987, the same fate engulfed the stock market. Part of problems in 1937 may be due to President Roosevelt's attempt to pack the Supreme Court and his agenda of balanced budget when the country was still reeling from Great Depression. This is quite an interesting study of history and vividly describes the strategies and attitudes of leaders like Hitler, Churchill, Stalin and President Roosevelt. Stalin's ruthlessness against his own people resulted in the loss of four-and-half million lives between 1936 and 1939. There is also an interesting tale of how President Harry Truman's letter to Washington Post music critic Paul Hume when he gave unpleasant review of his daughter's concert. President Truman's letter gave the stock market a great scare which goes to prove an apparently insignificant incident could foolishly impact the investor's decisions.
What is the take home message of this review? According to the author, diversify your fortune and anticipate troubles and pay close attention to stock markets. Equities are the place to be in the long run because of their proven ability to increase the purchasing power of capital. Another part of your diversification strategy is to own a farm or a ranch as an insurance policy. The control of food producing land is a basic instinct of mankind. Stockpiling some essentials like canned food, wine, medicine, and clothes is not a bad idea if you have learnt something from the events of WWII in Germany, Russia and elsewhere in Europe. The author is vivid in depicting the grim realities in metaphor; when Four horsemen of the Apocalypse; Pestilence, War, Famine, and Death visit this planet again. Imagine the possibilities, in fact there is a great deal to learn from the history.
This is a review of the events of World War II (WWII) and its impact on the stock market worldwide. This work is of great interest since we live in post 9/11 era filled with conflict, threat of another world war and increasing scarcity of resources. The book chronicles the history of death, destruction and the grim realities of WWII in great detail and its impact on stock market in both losing and winning countries. Stock markets were always one step ahead of actual events in estimating, analyzing, and deciphering the economic future through changing stock prices. The author suggests that investor crowd always had a great intuitive wisdom and imagination: Stock markets are like voting machines.
There are some very interesting tales of how stock markets performed during critical stages of the war. Just before the battle of Britain in 1940 the British markets bottomed out; the German market peaked after the attack on Russia; and in October 1937 the American markets collapsed and exactly 50 years later in Oct 1987, the same fate engulfed the stock market. Part of problems in 1937 may be due to President Roosevelt's attempt to pack the Supreme Court and his agenda of balanced budget when the country was still reeling from Great Depression. This is quite an interesting study of history and vividly describes the strategies and attitudes of leaders like Hitler, Churchill, Stalin and President Roosevelt. Stalin's ruthlessness against his own people resulted in the loss of four-and-half million lives between 1936 and 1939. There is also an interesting tale of how President Harry Truman's letter to Washington Post music critic Paul Hume when he gave unpleasant review of his daughter's concert. President Truman's letter gave the stock market a great scare which goes to prove an apparently insignificant incident could foolishly impact the investor's decisions.
What is the take home message of this review? According to the author, diversify your fortune and anticipate troubles and pay close attention to stock markets. Equities are the place to be in the long run because of their proven ability to increase the purchasing power of capital. Another part of your diversification strategy is to own a farm or a ranch as an insurance policy. The control of food producing land is a basic instinct of mankind. Stockpiling some essentials like canned food, wine, medicine, and clothes is not a bad idea if you have learnt something from the events of WWII in Germany, Russia and elsewhere in Europe. The author is vivid in depicting the grim realities in metaphor; when Four horsemen of the Apocalypse; Pestilence, War, Famine, and Death visit this planet again. Imagine the possibilities, in fact there is a great deal to learn from the history.
August 7, 2025
In a nutshell:
1. It is the author’s argument that many, if not all, pivotal events are often prognosticated by reference to signs & messages the Market itself gives off (basically aligns with the premise of something like Polymarket).
2. That Black Swan Events are the rule, rather than the exception. That to predict the Market in any reliable fashion, with any degree of precision, the prognosticator must factor in at least one (or more) Black Swan event into his calculations.
1. It is the author’s argument that many, if not all, pivotal events are often prognosticated by reference to signs & messages the Market itself gives off (basically aligns with the premise of something like Polymarket).
2. That Black Swan Events are the rule, rather than the exception. That to predict the Market in any reliable fashion, with any degree of precision, the prognosticator must factor in at least one (or more) Black Swan event into his calculations.
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