I decided to read Reentry after reading the amazing review by John P. Smith (seriously, one of the best book reviews I’ve ever read: thepsmiths dot com /p/review-reentry-by-eric-berger ). This was in conjunction with my interest in understanding why people are so mesmerized by Elon Musk, despite him seemingly being bad at thinking (in a way that is very visible to the public), short-sighted, and emotionally temperamental (he is also a mean person, which to me is even worse than having bad values or being dumb). I kept receiving the same answer from many people in the online sphere I spend time in: that they idolize Elon Musk based on what he did for SpaceX.
As someone not interested in space exploration, I didn’t know very much about SpaceX, so I wanted to better understand if SpaceX was actually so impressive, and if so, what Musk did to make this happen.
I now know a small amount about SpaceX and get why people are taken by this story. SpaceX really is a tremendous success, and some people view space exploration as amongst their most civilizational important priorities. Elon has a certain temperament and mindset, which is just who he was born as—not something he reasoned his way into—and it happens to be an approach that leads to incredible success in this domain.
I’m interested in this because now that I think success with this framework has been validated as a proof of concept, I believe there will be other entrepreneurs who will now replicate it.
NOTE: This is a bit tricky because one of the key conditions that enabled SpaceX’s success is being completely okay with failure and everything going to zero. Arguably, this likely selects for someone who is already rich, but it may just be someone who truly doesn’t care for various reasons.
The reason for this, and something I can attest to as a lawyer, is that most people are way too conservative, routinely avoiding anything that can jeopardize their job/status/place in the world. Generally, it is bad to need to buy insurance for things, and both organizationally as directed by the CEO and aggregated throughout all the self-serving decisions most organizations’ employees make, there is a huge glut of conservatism impairing most companies due to a fear of existential risks. This isn’t just about an unwillingness to take positive EV bets that come with severe consequences, but to succeed in any truly audacious project, you likely need to be taking tons of negative EV bets and hope they turn out well.
The basic setup and algorithm of Elon Musk is:
- Hire a bunch of very smart people who truly believe in the mission of what they are doing, so much so that they will work under any conditions and not quit.
- Be very selective about who you include, such that it leads to a group that is nearly all male.
- Do not allow any—not just DEI—but even basic human resources infrastructure. Make it more akin to a group of all-male engineering friends working on a university project.
Then, do these three simple things:
1) Routinely ask: Is there a way to do this 2x (or 10x) less expensively?
2) Routinely ask: Is there a way to do this 2x (or 10x) faster?
3) Routinely ask: Is there a way to do this 2x (or 10x) more effectively?
Imagine your boss comes to you a month before a big project is going to wrap up and says, “We actually need this done in two weeks. Drop everything and do whatever it takes to make it happen.” Sure, you get it done, but it sucks!
Now imagine this happens to you nearly every week across multiple domains (time, effectiveness, costs). In a normal business, everyone would rage quit. But when you love it so much there is no other place you would want to be, you just suck it up and do it.
The benefits of all of these gains then compound over time in a way that traditional companies cannot replicate.
With all this said, I think SpaceX will continue to succeed, but I do not think Elon Musk will remain involved in the longterm. My view is that who he is as a person, he cannot operate without doubling down on all aspects of his life and continuing to escalate. Based on this, I think there is a very high probability that Elon Musk will find himself facing his own existential consequences—legal, or straight up dying—that prevent him from leading SpaceX long-term.
NOTE: The author of this book seems like a great dude. Since I’m not actually that interested in the content of the book other than for cultural insights about Musk, I don’t feel comfortable rating it. If you like space stuff, its probably a great book.