Coming into View: How AI and Other Megatrends Will Shape Your Investments

by Joseph H. Davis

An expertly crafted evaluation of forces shaping the economy over the coming decade and portfolio management strategies designed to harness them

In Coming Into How AI and Other Megatrends Will Shape Your Investments, Vanguard’s Global Chief Economist and head of its Investment Strategy Group, Joe Davis, makes a simple and profound that the “status quo” view of the United States economy – one of predictable and relatively constant measures of growth, inflation, and financial returns – is actually deeply unlikely to hold true in the future. The book demonstrates how the promise of artificial intelligence and technological advancement may push against the daunting headwinds of slowing population growth, rising geopolitical tensions and growing national debt, to reshape the economy in ways that conventional thinking overlooks. Davis presents an innovative and original, data-driven framework to consider the probabilities of the coming tug-of-war between AI-fueled growth and inflationary structural fiscal deficits, that can help guide investors as they build investment portfolios to weather uncertain years ahead.

Inside the

Effective strategies for investors attempting to prepare for different economic possibilities and scenarios in the world. New data and models to better quantify the impact of economic forces and uncover the risks of relying on consensus assumptions. Techniques to avoid common investment mistakes in times of economic change, such as doubling down on technology stocks, or avoiding certain types of investments. Guiding investing principles to help achieve greater financial returns, on a risk-adjusted basis. A must-read resource for professional and retail investors, Coming Into View is a startlingly insightful and practical guide for anyone seeking to engage with the financial markets as an informed and confident investor.

Genres: Personal Finance, Nonfiction, Business, Artificial Intelligence

224 pages, Hardcover

Published May 27, 2025

Reviews

[Brett Roston · Rating 2 out of 5]

Bogleheads will always be bogleheads. Not particularly enlightening. Low cost index funds or bust

[Igor Pejic · Rating 5 out of 5]

In Coming into View: How AI and Other Megatrends Will Shape Your Investments, Joseph Davis, Vanguard’s Global Chief Economist, provides a rigorous, data-driven look at the structural forces that will define the next decade of global finance. Davis argues that we are currently locked in a historic “tug-of-war” between two massive, opposing forces: the deflationary, productivity-boosting power of artificial intelligence and the inflationary headwinds of aging demographics and mounting national debt. While many market commentators focus on the noise of quarterly earnings or interest rate pivots, Davis encourages investors to look at these “tectonic plates” of the economy, which are grinding against one another to create a future that will look fundamentally different from the “status quo” of the last forty years.
The book is particularly effective in its use of the Vanguard Megatrends Model™ to quantify these shifts, moving beyond mere speculation to assign actual probabilities to different economic scenarios. Davis challenges the conventional wisdom that globalization is in a terminal retreat, instead suggesting its evolution into a more complex, service-oriented phase. He also provides a nuanced view of fiscal deficits, explaining that while debt levels are high, the real danger lies in how those deficits interact with growth and interest rates. By the final chapters, the book transitions from macro-analysis to portfolio construction, offering two “acts” of a strategy designed to survive and thrive regardless of which side wins the tug-of-war. It is a deeply intellectual but accessible guide that honors the foundational principles of Vanguard’s founder, Jack Bogle, while recognizing that even timeless strategies must adapt to the transformative reality of the AI era.

This review is originally published within the Money Book Cirlcle in my newsletter. Sign up here for regular reviews of the hottest books on money and technology: https://igorpejic.substack.com/

[Scott · Rating 1 out of 5]

A narrow, biased perspective coupled with fuzzy math yields no useful information here. This book has too many problems to list. But, for example federal tax revenue fluctuating between 15 and 20% of GDP is described as "stable" and not a variable worth trying to forecast despite the fact that an increase of just 3% would eliminate our 2025 primary deficit. Also, the Figure 7.1 compares an empirical distribution of average GDP growth in the decades from 1920 to 2022 to the means of current forecasts of the next decade. That makes no sense. You have to compare an entire forecast distribution to the empirical distribution if you want a meaningful comparison. You cannot complain that the distribution of a forecast is too narrow or too symmetrical compared to history if you never describe the distribution of the forecast. Also, there is nothing one could call a predictive model in the appendix. It's just more adhoc fluff like the rest of the book.

[Chaitanya Bapat · Rating 4 out of 5]

Interesting read on the nature of technology, 2 main groups
- GPT i.e. general purpose tech like electricity, internal combustion engine, internet - which transformed the way humans lived - having far-reaching impact on the world's productivity, having spillover benefits to numerous other industries.

- innovative but not transformational e.g. smartphone, heater, TV, microwave, etc - no direct lift in productivity - hence not a huge GDP driver.

AI tends to have potential of being that next GPT which could mitigate the headwinds like demographics [aging population] and rising structual fiscal deficits [spending on benefits]

Author seems to have data backed and thoroughly researched views about this topic and was definitely worth a read.
Full notes: https://chai-bapat.medium.com/coming-...

[Jay Long · Rating 5 out of 5]

Taking a tour of non-fiction, this book by Davis lays out his framework for investing - focusing on megatrends; the buzzword of AI being the latest one.

His approach to investing is fairly standard - given his (Vanguard) background, it's heavy into the buy & hold school. I enjoyed his thesis about megatrends and how they can cause leaps in opportunity investing.

Like the author, I'm not sure if AI is the next PC (didn't lead to massive leap) or software (which did) - but I found the discussion interesting and thought provoking. I recommended it to both of my kids - think it's a good intro to portfolio investing.

[Hunter Satterfield · Rating 4 out of 5]

This is an excellent, though deep dive look at the future of the stock and bond markets in the coming AI-drive economy. It will likely only interest those that are in the industry or invest for themselves.

It is written by the Chief Global Economist of Vanguard so he clearly has all the data on which to base his conclusions. I didn't agree with all of his conclusions, but it is thought-provoking and does an excellent job at helping form a framework on how to view the next 1/3/5/7 years in the market.

Highly recommended for those in finance and anyone interested in the impact of AI on the markets.

[Alexi · Rating 5 out of 5]

Very digestible, thorough book on investing in the modern day. It simply explains why investing for several different outcomes of the world (transformative ai versus ai that largely disappoints for example) is the best course for the vast majority of investors. I learned a lot and will keep it as a reference.

[Stephen Coleman · Rating 3 out of 5]

Some interesting insight on the history of Megatrends, and trying to apply that knowledge to how it may impact markets going forward. Quite theoretical, but well cited and some interesting insight on offer. Timely in its subject matter, but looking at the next 15 years of markets rather than the immediate 'now' controversy of AI's market cap.

[Matt · Rating 5 out of 5]

I really enjoyed the author's perspective and long-term framework for evaluating megatrends and their impact on the economy and portfolios. The book was also on the short side and to the point, which I always appreciate.

[Anne Haack · Rating 5 out of 5]

I am not an economist so appreciate reading a timely book that is easy to digest and act upon within my portfolio (or stay the course).

[Mike Young · Rating 5 out of 5]

Siena. AY wedding. Good overview of the primary forces (deficit spending vs AI productivity) to shape the future and the many ways it can play out. Concise, easy to read and to the point.

[John · Rating 5 out of 5]

Very interesting and thought provoking read. Stealing the Indiana Jones analogy :)

[Uwais Patel · Rating 5 out of 5]

A must read for anyone working in financial markets.

[David · Rating 5 out of 5]

Good book to make you think about future investing especially in AI

[Ed · Rating 3 out of 5]

Interesting if a little dry. Essentially boils down to a short thesis on advice for making small adaptations to a traditional balanced portfolio in response to the competing impacts of demographic pressure on government debt and AI acting as a growth engine.