This is entertaining, intellectually stimulating and well researched book about complexity economics. If you are interested in the alternative views on economic theory, you would find it worth paying attention to. It is written in 2007, but still stands alone as a popular introduction into this field. I am surprised it has not been updated and there is nothing more recent on the topic.
The book is more than 500 pages, but I never felt bored. There is a part where Mr Beinhocker is trying to formulate his own theory of economic growth borrowing from the theory of evolution and applying it to the economy. These chapters and his theory, respectively, I found not very convincing and relatively sketchy. And he admits himself that he might be wrong in certain conjestures. However, the effort to produce any theory within the complexity framework was worthwhile nevertheless.
The rest of the book is a delight. He gathers the relevant knowledge from the scientists working in the complexity field and convincingly presents it. He also explains why the traditional neoclassical theory does not quite work.
Below is what he is considering in the book:
- the economy is complex adaptive system (Complex - contains many agents interacting with each other and demonstrates the phenomena of emergence; adaptive - the agents adapt their behaviour in response to certain feedbacks; There is no long-lasting equilibrium within these systems. The system is also dynamic (evolving with time).
- the economic laws should be consistent with the biological theory of evolution and physics (thermodynamics, specifically 2nd law); He describes in the book what does it all mean.
- if one models the economy using this paradigm, the results would be much closer to the empirical data but would totally debunk many findings of the traditional economic theory.
- the field is relatively new, so there is no complete theory developed so far, but a lot of interesting patterns are emerging.
The implications of this are massive of course. He demonstrates it with lots of example and the related models. I will just mention the two of them here, the ones I found quite striking:
Sugarscape model:
The model has been developed in 1996 by J Epstein and R Axtell. It is a computer simulation of economic interactions between the agents trying to obtain and eat sugar (the only resource available which is spread unevenly within limited landscape). In the simplest model the agents could do only 3 things: look for sugar; move; eat sugar. To do that, they receive randomly a “genetic endowment” for vision and metabolism (the slow the better). So, the one with better vision and slower metabolism would be genetically better off, but the geography where are they would matter as well. For starters, they ran this game with 250 agents. And even at this simplest model they found a striking thing:
“At the beginning the sugarscape was fairy egalitarian society with bell-shaped distribution of wealth and with only a few agents were rich and a few were poor, the rest was solid middle class.” And the gap between the richest and the poorest was relatively small. As time passes, however, this distribution has changed dramatically. “Average wealth rose, but the distribution of wealth became very skewed, with emerging super-rich, a long tale of upper class yuppie agents, shrinking middle class, and then a bog, growing underclass of poor agents.”
Does it remind you something? Indeed, what the Bible said “For whosoever hath, to him shall be given, and he shall have more abundance: but whosoever hath not, from him shall be taken away even that he hath! “ And the reason for this is “emerging macro behaviour out of micro behaviour of each agents” - geography, genes, and sheer luck in combination! Beinocker describes the outcomes and the assumptions in a very clear and detailed way. He also shows more complicated models with the possibility of exchange, agents’ reproduction, etc. However, even the basic model is very revealing.
Any policy-maker should be familiar with this if she is serious addressing the inequality issues.
Stock market
According to Beinocker, the stock market is the only place where the economic theories are tested almost in real time and where there is a massive amount of empirical data. The book has been written before the latest financial crisis. However, when I read this book, I was amazed that all the knowledge describing the inherent instability of the stock market were already there! It seems, just no-one wanted to open their eyes and look. And i am not even talking about the financial system as whole. Just pure stock market.
The traditional wisdom (well, actually an academic theory by a few Noble price winners) is called “Perfect Market Hypotheses” (PMH):
- all information you might know about the company is already in its share price;
- therefore, it is impossible to learn from the shares’ past performance. The prices follow totally random walk;
- the market will reach its equilibrium;
- the price reflects the fair value of the company
All of it leads to the following conclusions:
-that the bubbles are impossible (only might be coursed by exogenous factors, not inherent in the system);
- no big money can be made at stock exchange - ha!
-the management should care about its share price and maximise the value of the company calculated as per financial results (i am simplifying here, but this is the jest);
This is the PMH to you. And it was evident in 2008 already that this theory is total rubbish (excuse my French)! Beinocker shows how and why it is the case through the models of David Farmer, the physicist, turned into a stock broker and then finance theorist.
Surprisingly in 2008, against the evidence he himself presents, Beinocker still seemed to agree with Paul Samuelson that “It is not easy to get rich in Las Vegas, at Churchill Downs, or at the local Merrill Lynch office.”. He argues that no single broker would have sufficient liquid funds easily available. But i think, it was more a self-delusion, than the conclusions from his own research. We all know by now know that the broker could easily borrow…
The theory of maximising shareholder’s value (i.e. financial result = share price) has created a culture of short-term view with management focusing on the quarterly financial results instead of more strategic long-term vision of the company’s goals. It is evident now that the share price does not reflect the company value and respectively, the management does not have a direct control over it.
These are just two examples how complexity approach and the related modelling is changing the traditional economic paradigm.
In the last part of the book, Beinocker considers possible policy implications of the complexity economics. Specifically thinks about inequality, development and the role of the government in the economy. He hopes that the theory would put an end to the traditional left and right divide on the economic issues. I would like to hope together with him… However, it seems we are moving backwards not forwards in terms of the divergence between the theory and practice…
All of this might sound very dry to you, but the book is not dry. He is fantastic and patient storyteller. He takes time explaining the concepts and models. I have to make a warning though, if you are easily irritated by the management consulting verbiage, you might find bits of this book quite annoying. But it is not intolerable and not everywhere (the majority is focused in Chapter 14 which might be easily skipped).
Definitely, complexity economics is the one of the most promising ways of looking at the economy. Complexity and convergence seem to be the trends developing in the natural sciences for quite sometime. I am glad it is starting to reach the social sciences as well.