Thinking Historically: A Guide to Statecraft and Strategy

by Francis J. Gavin

A compelling and insightful argument for historical study as a way to understand and navigate the complex, often confusing world of decision-making
 
It seems obvious that we should use history to improve policy. If we have a good understanding of the past, it should enable better decisions in the present, especially in the extraordinarily consequential worlds of statecraft and strategy. But how do we gain that knowledge? How should history be used? Sadly, it is rarely done well, and historians and decision-makers seldom interact. But in this remarkable book, Francis J. Gavin explains the many ways historical knowledge can help us understand and navigate the complex, often confusing world around us.
 
Good historical work convincingly captures the challenges and complexities the decisionmaker faces. At its most useful, history is less a narrowly defined field of study than a practice, a mental awareness, a discernment, and a responsiveness to the past and how it unfolded into our present world—a discipline in the best sense of the word. Gavin demonstrates how a historical sensibility helps us to appreciate the unexpected; complicates our assumptions; makes the unfamiliar familiar and the familiar unfamiliar; and requires us, without entirely suspending moral judgment, to try to understand others on their own terms. This book is a powerful argument for thinking historically as a way for readers to apply wisdom in encountering what is foreign to them.

Genres: History, International Relations, Politics

256 pages, Hardcover

Published September 2, 2025

Reviews

[Chris E. · Rating 4 out of 5]

As a recovering history major, I’m not a stranger to the niche genre of why-history-matters books. In college, I especially appreciated “The Landscape of History” by John Lewis Gaddis. Perhaps for that reason, I found “Thinking Historically” to be somewhat redundant and duplicative of similar works.

As an introduction to the genre, “Thinking Historically” is probably as suitable as any other work. But if measured by its success in conveying something new within the genre, “Thinking Historically” fell a bit short for me. Gavin enjoys descriptive passages about what “a historical sensibility” and “thinking historically” can do for modern policymakers. But he rarely pierces the abstract with specifics (regarding applied history, contra history as a separate academic endeavor). “Thinking Historically” would have benefited from a few real-life examples of policymakers using historical tools faithfully and consequently delivering a uniquely positive outcome. It would have also benefited from considering the unique advantages of accrued experience as its own form of “personal history” in the policymaking process.

[Ili Giannakis · Rating 4 out of 5]

I attended Gavin’s book launch at King’s college London. Not only did Francis Gavin study under John Mearsheimer - but he writes an excellent book about historical sensibility and the importance of historians in policy making.
Currently taking a foreign policy and national security module and it blends wonderfully

[Devin · Rating 5 out of 5]

A masterful tour de force with sparkling insights on every page. Gavin's work puts him in the rarefied company of all-time greats John Lewis Gaddis, Ernest May, Paul Schroeder, and Marc Trachtenberg.

[Zoey Bornstein · Rating 3 out of 5]

I’m excited to meet with the author and hear his thoughts on what it was like to write this book. It combined May and Neustadt, “thinking in time” and MacMillans “The uses and abuses of history.” I enjoyed it as a scholarly read.