Making Decisions

by Dennis V. Lindley, Lindley Cody, Cody Lindley

Looks at the logical processes that need to be used to arrive at a decision. Stressing that there is only one way to do it: by assigning probabilities to the uncertain events; by assigning utilities to the possible consequence; and by choosing the decision that maximizes expected utility. Uses only elementary mathematics.

216 pages, ebook

First published January 1, 1971

Reviews

[Nathaniel Hendrix · Rating 4 out of 5]

Quite thorough as an introduction. I especially appreciated the inclusion of scoring rules, and the way that Lindley places decision theory into a larger program of rationality.

The first few chapters refer back to an imaginary urn filled with black and white balls. This gets in the way once utility enters the picture, since at that point you're asked to manipulate the proportion of black to white balls in the urn. I wanted to pitch the urn out the window at that point.

[Robb Seaton · Rating 3 out of 5]

Most readers will be better served by an introductory decision theory textbook.